1. Population Dynamics, Components & Trends N5 Population Unit

2. Success Criteria Know that Population is Dynamic (changing) Know the Components of Population Change Know and understand the key terms that are used to describe population change and trends. Understand that fertility is a key component of population change. Understand that mortality is a key component of population change.

3. http://www.worldometers.info/world-population/ Population is constantly changing…

4. Population Change Population (Millions) World Population is increasing. COMPOSITE LINE GRAPH – Shows Developing Countries (ELDCs), Developed Countries (EMDCs) and the overall picture. World Population has been increasing since the end of the Black Death around 1400.

5. Components of Population Change TOTAL POPULATION Migration Change Component Natural Change Component BIRTHS IMMIGRANTS + + - EMMIGRANTS - DEATHS This can apply to: - A Continent - The EU - A Country - A Region - A City

6. POPULATION – KEY TERMS These terms are used to explain demographic (population) trends. POPULATION – KEY TERMS These terms are used to explain demographic (population) trends.

7. Crude Birth Rate (CBR) This figure indicates the number of people per thousand head of population born in any given year. Since this is a very basic measure it is termed ‘crude’. Birth rates are much higher in ELDCs than in EMDCs. Ethiopia has a birth rate of 46 per thousand. The UK has a birth rate of 11 per thousand,

8. Crude Death Rate or Crude Mortality Rate (CDR) This indicates the number of people per thousand of population who die in any given year. This is also a very basic measure hence the term ‘crude’. Death rates are also higher in ELDCs than in EMDCs. Ethiopia has a death rate of 18 per thousand. The UK has a death rate of 10 per thousand

9. Natural Growth Rate or Natural Increase Rate This is the number (per thousand head of the population) by which the population is increasing each year. The natural growth rate is calculated by subtracting death rates from birth rates. If the death rate is higher than the birth rate, a negative natural growth occurs (effectively a natural decrease). Natural growth rates are higher in ELDCs than in EMDCs. Ethiopia has a Natural Increase Rate of 28 per thousand (i.e. 46 – 18). The UK has a Natural Increase Rate of 1 per thousand (i.e. 11 – 10).

10. Fertility Ratio The fertility ratio is calculated by dividing the number of children under 3 by the number of women between the ages of 15 and 44 years (the childbearing years). Fertility ratios are useful for international comparisons. An EMDC will have a low fertility ratio (1.7 for example). An ELDC will have a high fertility ratio (6.1 for example)

11. Average Life Expectancy This is the figure which indicates the average number of years a person can expect to live in any given country. Life expectancy figures are higher in EMDCs than in ELDCs. Ethiopia has a life expectancy of 47 years. The UK has a life expectancy of 77.

12. Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) This indicates the number of deaths of infants under one year of age per thousand live births in any given year. Infant mortality rates are much higher in ELDCs than they are in EMDCs. Ethiopia has an IMR of 120. The UK has an IMR of 6.2.

13. Population Key Terms TermDefinitionUK Figures (Approx) Comment Crude Birth Rate* Number of live births per 1000 people per year. 11 per 1000Less than 12 is low, more than 30 is high. Crude Death Rate Number of deaths per 1000 people per year. 10 per 1000Less than 10 is very low, more than 14 is high. Natural Increase The difference between Birth Rate and Death Rate. Can be a positive or negative number. 11 – 10 = 1. For every 1000 people in Britain, there is an extra 1 every year. Natural Increase in UK is very low – our population is growing slowly. The Natural increase in Burkina Faso is 21! Infant Mortality Number of babies who die before their 1 st birthday per 1000 live births per year. 5 per 1000This is very low. In Burkina Faso the rate is 83.

14. Population Key Terms TermDefinitionUK Figures (Approx) Comment Child Mortality Rate Number of children who die before their 5th birthday per 1000 live births per year. Life Expectancy The average age a person is expected to live 79 Years oldIn Burkina Faso Life Expectancy is 53 years. *Crude birth rate is a ‘crude’ measure as it doesn’t allow for the age and sex of the population. An alternative is: General Fertility Rate – number of live births per 1000 women aged 15 – 44 in a year.

15. Differential Mortality http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/glasgow_and_west/7584450.stm http://news.stv.tv/scotland/165914-life-expectancy-variations-between-rich-and- poor-revealed/http://news.stv.tv/scotland/165914-life-expectancy-variations-between-rich-and- poor-revealed/ This is where mortality rates differ in the same geographical area eg. different parts of Glasgow.

16. FERTILITY Fertility is a critical part of population change. People don’t have much choice about their death – they have more choice about the number of children they have! The reasons behind differences in Fertility and Birth Rates are a combination of complex political, economic, social, religious and demographic factors… …but you need to learn them along with examples of countries and places…

17. https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world- factbook/rankorder/2054rank.html Look at the top 5 countries with highest birth rates and the bottom 5 countries with lowest birth rates…

18. Children were traditionally part of the workforce, earning money to bring into the family. More importantly in many countries today they are seen as a sort of PENSION for parents as they grow older, especially in countries where there is little provision for the elderly. Example: In Ethiopia, the State Pension System only covers the Civil Service, the Military and the Police. Pension Policy

19. Men seeing having children as a status symbol and indicator of virility. Having many children to continue on the family name. Example: Many parts of Africa, Asia and Middle East. Status Symbol

20. ‘How much does a baby Cost?!’ Estimates of £85 000 - £170 000 to raise a child to 18 (figures from USA). Having many children is seen as an Economic and Social burden, especially in EMDCs. Consumer pressures such as holidays and cars – people would rather spend money on other things. Women and careers – many women delay starting their families until they establish their careers. Decline in marriage and the traditional family set-up, increase in divorce and co-habitation – all have reduced fertility rates.

21. Islam, Catholicism and Mormonism are faiths associated with higher fertility. Encourage youthful marriages and an early start to childbearing. Opposed to abortion and provision of contraception. But… As living standards and urbanisation improves, women become better educated and fertility rates decline regardless of religion. Religion

22. Especially of women! Changes the aspirations of women and what they want for their families. Become more aware of their rights as women. Educated in the types and availability of contraception as well as options open to them if they do get pregnant. Example of Zimbabwe. Women with no education have on average 7 children, women with primary school education – 6 children; women with secondary/higher education – less than 4 children. Education

23. Government Policy Pro-Natalist Policies – places like France and Germany after WW1 to compensate for so many deaths as well as for military purposes. Hitler’s Nazi Germany – taxed unmarried couples, banned contraceptives, large family allowance payments. Anti-Natalist Policies – Singapore in 1970s – put costs up in hospitals for each birth after your first, limited housing allocation for large families. China’s One Child Policy.

24. Decline in Infant Mortality – women no longer feel they have to have many children to ensure that some survive into adulthood. Other Demographic Factors

25. Despite being a Catholic Country, Italy has one of the lowest birth rates in the World (8 births per 1000). Use of Contraception is against religious beliefs yet birth rate remains low suggesting people are turning away from the Vatican teachings. The Government has had to respond with a Pro-Natalist policy. Families are paid a bonus of €500 on the birth of their second and subsequent children. The exception to this trend is in the more traditional, rural Southern part of Italy where people still adhere to religious teachings. Here birth rates have remained high. ITALY CASE STUDY

26. Mortality In Developed Countries the majority of deaths (80%) occur amongst the oldest age groups (65+). This age group accounts for only 25% of deaths in Developing Countries. In Developing Countries the majority of deaths occur in lower age groups particularly young children.

27. In the developed world, lower age groups account for a very small proportion of deaths (under 10%). The number of deaths in the age group 16-64 is also much higher in Developing Countries than in Developed Countries.

28. Reasons Differences in life expectancy and infant mortality rates as a result of different living standards. Poorer quality of health and hygiene care available to citizens. Poor quality diet and food supply, often leading to malnutrition and, in extreme cases, famine.

29. Reasons Wide differences in levels of economic development with lack of investment in housing, health and general infrastructure. Low standard of education due to lack of schools, colleges and teaching staff. Poor housing standards with shanty towns common to most cities. Prevalence of infectious diseases due to poor sanitation, lack of medical drugs and healthcare.

30. Reasons Developed Countries enjoy much higher levels of provision in all of these areas than Developing Countries. As a result, people in younger age groups are less susceptible to death.

31. Can I…? Do I…? Know that Population is Dynamic (changing) Know the Components of Population Change Know and understand the key terms that are used to describe population change and trends. Understand that fertility is a key component of population change. # Understand that mortality is a key component of population change.