1. 1 Societal Concerns as Wicked Problems Sandra S. Batie Michigan State University OECD Paris Nov 2009

2. 2 Societal Concerns Accepted values of society Appeal to a broad range of people Commodity, non-commodity, or processes and production practices

3. 3 Societal Concerns Tame vs. Wicked

4. 4 Outline What are wicked problems? What are tame problems? What policy challenges are posed by wicked problems?

5. 5 Outline (cont.) Trade liberalization as a tame versus a wicked problem Implications for policy development

6. 6 I. Wicked and Tame Problems

7. 7 What are they? Problems

8. 8 –Animal Welfare –Global Climate Change –Biofuel Production –GMO Foods –Sustainable Development –Trade Liberalization Problems

9. 9 Tame Problems Identifying the source of food contamination Cost effectiveness of conservation practices Costs and benefits of expanding an irrigation project

10. 10 Characteristic Tame ProblemWicked Problem 1. The problemClear definition of problem and potential solutions Problem does not change overtime No agreement about what the problem is or what solutions are possible Creating solutions changes the problem

11. 11 Characteristic Tame Problem Wicked Problem 2. The problemOutcome is true or false, successful or unsuccessful Outcomes are “better” or “worse”

12. 12 Characteristic Tame Problem Wicked Problem 3. The role of stakeholders Limited role for stakeholders Crucial role for stakeholders who hold different definitions of the “real” problem, its causes and potential solutions

13. 13 Characteristic Tame ProblemWicked Problem 3. The role of experts Experts trusted to find causes and identify solutions based primarily on scientific data Experts are not trusted to decide desirable outcomes

14. 14 Characteristic Tame Problem Wicked Problem 4. The “stopping rule” The task is completed when the problem is solved No definitive solution. Endpoint is determined by stakeholders, by political forces, and/or by resource availability

15. 15 Characteristic Tame Problem Wicked Problem 5. Nature of the problem Scientifically based protocols guide the choice of solution(s) No “optimal/ best practices” available. Solution- seeking processes are based on “judgments” of multiple stakeholders

16. 16 Characteristic Tame ProblemWicked Problem 6. Nature of the problem Low uncertainty as to system components and outcomes High uncertainty as to system components and outcomes

17. 17 Characteristic Tame Problem Wicked Problem 7. Nature of the problem Shared values as to desirability of outcomes No shared values as to desirability of outcomes

18. 18 Wicked Problems Many interdependencies Multi-causal Unintended consequences to solutions Moving target, unstable Socially complex Rarely the responsibility of one organization Involve changing peoples’ behavior

19. 19 High Low HighLowValue Conflict Wicked Problems Tame Problems Uncertainty

20. 20 II. Policy Challenges Posed by Wicked Problems Problems

21. 21 Normal Science and Policy Normal science has a close relationship with the creation of policy alternatives Since WWII, normal science has been guided by a linear model

22. 22 Normal Science Normal science adds to the details of established theory but does not challenge or test its assumptions Normal science is what most disciplines do most of the time (i.e., conventional)

23. 23 Reservoir of knowledge Appraised by criteria internal to science Appraised by criteria external to science Societal benefits: Economic, environmental, medical, industrial, technological, … Basic research Applied research Development Source: Pielke, R.A. Jr., and R. Byerly Jr. 1998.

24. 24 Normal Science & Policy Scientific progress leads to social progress Chicago 1933 World’s Fair Motto “ Science Finds, Industry Applies, Man Conforms”

25. 25 Linear Model of Science Division between researchers and users Implies that reaching a consensus on science is a prerequisite for a political consensus “What is” conflates with “what ought to be” Implies reducing scientific uncertainty reduces political uncertainty

26. 26 Linear Model Assumptions More likely to be true when: –Widespread agreement on what is a desirable outcome –Low uncertainty about system component parts and outcomes –That is, when the problem is tame

27. 27 Example Developing a vaccine to prevent the spread of a human disease

28. 28 Normal Science is Not Well- suited for Wicked Problems Conflict in values over what are desirable outcomes Uncertainty about system component parts and outcomes Can not gather facts without first discussing values Must engage stakeholders

29. 29 Wicked Problems Even when dialogue occurs and includes all actors –Clear solutions rarely emerge –Rather, via negotiation, processes are identified which are judged better or worse (not right or wrong)

30. 30 Society is changing what it is asking of science, the role of science in decision making is quite complex. –Pielke 2007

31. 31 III. Trade Liberalization as a Tame Problem

32. 32 Trade Liberalization as a Tame Problem Economic (normal) science argues for policy “intervention” toward trade liberalization No uncertainty about the desirability of liberalized trade No uncertainty about cause and effect Conclusion = we “ought” to liberalize trade

33. 33 Trade Liberalization as a Tame Problem Undesirable outcomes (e.g. social concerns) are market failures Correct with government “intervention”

34. 34 Trade Liberalization as a Tame Problem Does not question the wisdom of trade liberalization Movements away from trade liberalization that are not market failures are inefficient and to be avoided or banned Inefficiency

35. 35 GATT and Tame Problems Early postwar GATT relatively successful Few players Dominance and leadership by U.S. Explicit issues about manufactured goods Problems more tame, agreement was more likely –Agriculture sector not as successful, more wicked

36. 36 Of course, if trade liberalization were a still a tame problem today, the Doha rounds would be completed and a success.

37. 37 IV.Trade Liberalization as a Wicked Problem Trade does not benefit all There are winners and losers Cannot assume that efficiency is a widely shared social goal or that a commonly shared definition of efficiency exists Wicked problems challenge normal economic science

38. 38 Trade Liberalization as a Wicked Problem Social goals do not come from scientific paradigms Social goals come from deliberative, democratic processes Social goals are political decisions and not scientific ones

39. 39 Trade Liberalization as a Wicked Problem New and many more players with WTO No consensus about the desirability of trade liberalization proposals

40. 40 New Social Concerns New issues, new publics Animal welfare Hormone use

41. 41 New Social Concerns Regional foods and labels Treatment of workers Protection of rural communities GMOs…

42. 42 Trade Liberalization as a Wicked Problem New and many more players with WTO No consensus about the desirability of trade liberalization proposals Transaction costs are higher

43. 43 Costs of Decision Making

44. 44 GATT/WTO Members and Length of Negotiations

45. 45 Uncertainty About Cause and Effect No consensus on the validity of dispute resolution rules Limited faith in science’s ability to manage risks Rising concern about sustainability Ease of communications to form virtual communities of like-minded individuals

46. 46 “I do not care if GMOs are safe, I do not want to eat them!”

47. 47 Scientific Risk Assessments Risk assessments do not incorporate all values Controversial because they have all the characteristics of a wicked problem Dispute resolution rulings do not quell the debate

48. 48 High Low HighLowValue Conflict Wicked Problems Perceived High Risk Problems Tame Problems Perceived Low Risk Problems Uncertainty

49. 49 Debate continues Conflicts over whose values will prevail Conflicts over what tradeoffs are worth making Conflicts over who should bear the costs and who should gain the benefits

50. 50 Normal Science, Wicked Problems, and Policy When values are in conflict, experts cannot dictate policy objectives If they try to do so with wicked problems, the frequent outcome is gridlock and controversy

51. 51 V. Implications Science can inform wicked problem decisions, but cannot make them Science alone cannot decide the adequacy of risk assessments Where there are substantial value divergences/conflicts the design of the decision processes is crucial

52. 52 Thank You!