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Fiscal Stimulus Package 1 Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand.

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Presentation on theme: "Fiscal Stimulus Package 1 Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand."— Presentation transcript:

1 Fiscal Stimulus Package 1 Ministry of Finance, Kingdom of Thailand

2 Fiscal Stimulus Package 2 Current economic situation Leading Indicator of economic segments showed negative trends GDP figures for 2009 have been revised down to 1% (from 4-5%) due to ongoing global and local economic slowdown 13.9% Retail 2007 GDP THB. 9.09 trillion 8.7% Agriculture % YOY Real VAT revenue 2551 % YOY Real agricultural income 2551 39.6% Manufacturing Export 2551 % YOY Industrial production % YOY 2551 10.1% 3.7% 3.9% Real Estate Construction Transport Hotels & restaurants % YOY Real estate tax revenue 2551 No. of tourists % YOY 2551 2.3%

3 Fiscal Stimulus Package 3 Fiscal stimulus programs Main components of the government’s fiscal spending 20092010201120122013 Approved budget Economic stimulus package State budget THB 1.84trn 2009 multi-year commitment budget extending to 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 are THB 120bn, THB 50bn, THB 10bn and THB 2bn, respectively Mega Projects plan THB 1.7trn (Mass Transit THB 440bn, Transportation and communication THB 440bn, Energy THB 370bn) Supplementary budget THB 116.7bn Utilize Special Financial Institutions to increase credit in the system by THB 300bn SOE investment budget THB 308bn Municipal investment budget THB 366bn 1 3 Expedite disbursement of budget Push forward investment projects 5 4 Tax measures 2

4 Fiscal Stimulus Package 4 PolicyTarget  Reduce living expenses / increase purchasing power  Widespread distribution of income and create rural employment  Increase liquidity for businesses –Commercial banks have liquidity but have credit concerns –Utilize SFIs to support/guarantee lending  Reaches the hands of people and business operators immediately –Utilize existing channels of disbursement for budget and loans –Minimize usage of bureaucratic channels  Measures to deal with layoffs and unemployment –Re-train laid-off labor force for reemployment in desired sectors  Prepare a disciplined and sustainable 2010 budget deficit  Ensure that approved projects proceed as planned  Approve and start long-term projects per investment plan Economic stimulus programs  Low-income earners / Labour workers / Farmers / SME  Sectors which have strong impact on GDP, with high multiplier effect  Sectors which remain competitive but lack short-tern liquidity  Manufacturing and Export / Agriculture / Tourism and Services / Construction and Real Estate Policy and target groups Short-term stimulus measures Medium to long-term stimulus measures

5 Fiscal Stimulus Package 5 (THB mm) Low-income earners Parents/Students Healthcare 18,970 19,000 3,000 Households 11,409 Unemployed 6,900 Rural communities 15,200 1,095 “Sufficient Economy Fund for Improvement in Quality of Life” –Funds for 78,358 villages THB 600 per month stipend for community healthcare workers –Approx. 830,000 workers Improve standards of 2,609 health service stations Free education for 15 years –Approx. 10mm students 1 month training and 3 months wage subsidy –Approx. 240,000 people Extend 5 public service subsidies program for 6 months One-time living cost allowance of THB 2,000 for those earning < THB 15,000 per month –8.1mm Social Security fund members –1.3mm civil servants (including retirees) 1 Supplementary budget Reduce living cost / Increase purchasing power / Distribute income and create rural employment

6 Fiscal Stimulus Package 6 Senior citizen Tourism Others Infrastructure Police force Contingency fund For emergency use or as necessary Ministry of Commerce’s measures to reduce living expenses Development of food industry and SMEs Rebuilding confidence in and image of Thailand Support tourism industry 532 public housing estate for low-ranked police force Rural irrigation network Small reservoirs construction Rural roads construction Old-age support payment of THB 500 per month –Approx. 5mm people 9,000 1,000 2,000 760 1,500 1,808 4,091 1,000 500 325 Total THB 97,558 mm 1 (THB mm) Supplementary budget Reduce living cost / Increase purchasing power / Distribute income and create rural employment

7 Fiscal Stimulus Package 7 2 Reduce tax burden / stimulate spending in target sectors / encourage restructuring Tax measures Real estate Venture Capital Tourism SMEs Community businesses Debt restructuring Taxes and fees are waived for income from debt reduction or retirement, and from transfer of assets in connection to debt restructuring (2009) Expenses related to domestic seminars in 2009 (including hotel rooms) are tax-deductible at twice their actual value Minimum investment requirement in SME for the first year is waived for registered venture capital firms Tax on transfer of SME shares is waived Increase minimum taxable revenue to THB 1,800,000 (from THB 1,200,000) –Approx. 58,000 registered community businesses Increase minimum taxable revenue to THB 1,000,000 (from THB 60,000) –Approx. 1,000,000 small & medium enterprises Payment for new residential properties is tax-deductible up to THB 300,000 (transferred in 2009) Property-transfer fee, special business tax, and withholding tax waived (until March 2010) Mortgage interest expense is tax-deductible up to THB 100,000/yr (on-going) Business reorganization Taxes and fees related to transfer of partial business reorganization are waived (2009)

8 Fiscal Stimulus Package 8 Government Savings Bank SME Bank Small Business Guarantee Corp Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives EXIM Bank Islamic Bank Increase liquidity for businesses by utilizing SFIs to support and guarantee loans Special Financial Institutions Loans to develop communities in the southern region Provide partial guarantees on loans to small businesses Soft loan to commercial banks to encourage lending Export credit insurance scheme Rural Labour Repatriation fund Loans to develop local communities Support rubber prices Increase subsidies for agriculture (currently 110,000mm) Small personal loans Non-collateralized loans for small businesses Government Housing Bank Mortgages and reduce interest expense 100,000 10,000 25,000 4,000 12,000 150,000 10,000 12,000 10,000 Note – THB 10bn capital injection for SFIs (SME Bank THB 2bn, EXIM Bank THB 5bn, SBGC THB3bn) 3 Credit (THB mm)

9 Fiscal Stimulus Package 9 Total budget THB 1.84trnTHB 308bnTHB 366bn* Quarterly distribution (% of ’09 budget) 24 / 25 / 25 / 2627 / 23 / 23 / 27N/A Past spending (avg. last 3 years) 94%70%N/A Actual spending Oct 08 - Dec 08 88%70%N/A Measures to expedite spending  Regular spending report to the Cabinet  Responsible ministers to monitor the spending of related departments  Accelerate budgetary spending according to implementation plan  Responsible ministers to monitor the spending of their respective SOEs  PTT, EGAT, THAI, MRT, AOT, TOT, etc.  Accelerate the budgetary spending of municipalities  Amend Ministry of Interior’s rules on municipal spending and borrowing to expedite future budget disbursement State budget SOE investment budget Municipal investment budget * Estimate from 2008 income of municipalities and average income and expenditure from past 5 years 4 Increase purchasing power / Distribute income & create rural employment / Increase liquidity for businesses Expedite disbursements

10 Fiscal Stimulus Package 10 Mass Transit16,45869,398127,786227,370 Airport Link9,355--- Transportation46,90982,78372,666 - Water resources 23,54844,92363,56752,031 Education 2,64314,15911,240 - Healthcare 25,03027,99626,56325,905 Housing 26,43725,75321,40813,415 Total150,380265,012323,229422,204 20092010E2011E2012E2013 Approved budget State budget THB 1.84trn 2009 multi-year commitment budget extending to 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 are THB 120bn, THB 50bn, THB 10bn and THB 2bn, respectively Mega Projects plan THB 1.7trn (State portion = THB 1.16trn, SOE portion = THB 570bn) SOE investment budget THB 308bn Municipal inv. budget THB 366bn SOE investment Budget THB 257bn * Amend rules on municipal spending 5 State portion of investments 4 5 Amend rules on municipal spending SOE investment Budget THB 309bn * SOE investment Budget THB 355bn * Prepare a budget deficit *Include SOE Mega Project portion Medium to long-term stimulus measures Push forward investments

11 Fiscal Stimulus Package 11 Distribution of benefits 1 2 3 Living cost allowance Small personal loans Small loan guarantees 5 measures 6 months Free education Irrigation Rural roads Tax measures Agricultural subsidies Tourism industry Food industry SME SME loan Export insurance Tax incentives for home buyers Mortgages Sufficient economy fund Community health workers Health service stations Community loan Labour repatriation loan Job training Senior pension Supplementary budget Tax measures Small personal loans Designed to provide even distribution of benefits

12 Fiscal Stimulus Package 12 Fiscal discipline Loan to finance budget deficit Economic and social development loan 437,940 (1) 183,500 (2) 621,440 Estimated decrease in 2009 revenue 2009 Supplementary budget 2009 budget249,500 132,000 116,700 527,990 2009 borrowing limit (THB mm) Borrowing plan (THB mm) (1) 20% of 2009 budget including supplementary budget of THB 1,935,000mm (including supplementary budget) + 80% of THB 63,676mm loan repayment budgeted (2) 10% of 2009 budget (excluding supplementary budget) Ratio of public debt to GDP is 42% / Ratio of annual borrowing to total budget is 15% 93,450 Efficient cash management can reduce borrowing requirement Remaining borrowing capacity for Fiscal Year 09 Economic and social development projects (committed) 29,790 Retain fiscal discipline while provide room for more stimulus if needed

13 Fiscal Stimulus Package 13 Expected outcome Expected impact on GDP growth Government budget Supplementary budget Tax measures New loans SOEs investment Municipal budget 2009 budget Mega Projects 0.2% 0.06% 1.0% 0.1% Every THB 25bn of spending over estimated investment plan Every THB 25bn of government spending Impact to GDP 0.1% Immediate spending of THB 100bn Every THB 10bn of tax savings Every THB 300bn of increase lending / year 23145

14 Fiscal Stimulus Package 14 Goals of the stimulus package The government will likely maintain an expansionary fiscal policy through 2010 1 2 3 4 5 Increase GDP by at least 1% Maintain a disciplined and sustainable budget Minimum GDP growth of 2% in 2009 Unemployment between 2.0-2.5% Create THB 12,900mm in revenue for the State ’09 Supplementary Budget Tax measures Increase lending through use of SFIs Push forward investment projects Expedite budget disburseme nt GDP Immediate action as well as laying the foundation for long-term sustainable growth


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