1. Medicare is as sustainable as we want it to be Michael M Rachlis MD MSc FRCPC LLD (Hon) University of Toronto February 7, 2013 www.michaelrachlis.ca

2. Current received wisdom Health Care costs are wildly out of control My fellow baby boomers and I will really deep six Medicare as we get older The only alternatives are to either cut real services or use more private care and finance. We need an “adult conversation” to reduce our expectations and make us see the need for private involvement

4. What’s my story? Health Care costs are not “out of control” The aging population won’t break the bank Medicare was and is good public policy Healthcare uses antiquated processes of delivery The two key solutions are: – Complete the First Stage of Medicare – Implement the Second Stage of Medicare

5. Health Care costs are not out of control

6. But Health care hasn’t been starved either

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18. The aging population won’t kill Medicare Canada is aging and health costs increase with age But aging of the population per se has had and will have only a moderate impact on health expenditures Aging is like a glacier not a tsunami. We have lots of time to prepare and adapt our health system before we get swamped! – The elderly are healthier than ever – High performing health systems can hold costs while enhancing quality of care for the frail elderly

19. Health costs are related to illness and Canadian seniors are healthier than ever 19

20. Year Disability 19841989199419992004 No Disability 73.8%75.2%76.8%78.8%81.0% Light or Moderate 15.9%14.8%13.9%13.3%11.8% Severe Requiring > 2.5 hrs personal care daily 10.3% 10.0%9.2%7.9% 7.2% American prevalence of disabled elderly 1984 - 2004 Manton et al. PNAS. 2006:103(48):18734-9

21. 2005-20102025-20302045-2050 Old Age Dependency Ratios (OADRs) 0.280.41 0.53 Prospective Old Age Dependency Ratios (POADRs) 0.190.23 0.27 Adult Disability Dependency Ratios (ADDRs) 0.110.12 Dependency of the elderly in wealthy countries W Sanderson. Science. 2010;329:1287-8. Canada was not included

22. From Mackenzie and Rachlis 2010 Annual impact of Aging on health costs 2010-2036

23. “It is not the aging of our population that threatens to precipitate a financial crisis in health care, but a failure to examine and make appropriate changes to our health care system, especially patterns of utilization.” Dr. William Dalziel. CMAJ. 1996;115:1584-6

24. Most of health care’s problems are due to antiquated, processes of care

25. After-Hours Care and Emergency Room Use Percent Difficulty getting after-hours care without going to the emergency room Used emergency room in past two years Source: 2011 Commonwealth Fund International Health Policy Survey of Sicker Adults in Eleven Countries.

26. Waited Less Than a Month to See Specialist Percent Base: Saw or needed to see a specialist in the past two years. Source: 2011 Commonwealth Fund International Health Policy Survey of Sicker Adults in Eleven Countries.

27. Spine surgeons in Ontario: A wasted precious resource Only 10% of patients referred to a spine surgeon actually need surgery $24 million in unnecessary MRI scans (http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/editorials/spine-surgery-can-become-much-more-efficient/article2023173)http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/editorials/spine-surgery-can-become-much-more-efficient/article2023173

28. The three solutions are: Complete the First Stage of Medicare Implement the Second Stage of Medicare Develop a healthier population financed by fair taxation

29. Complete the First Stage of Medicare Medicare’s founders intended public coverage for pharmaceuticals, long term care, home care, and dental care Mainly private finance and for profit delivery for these sectors means higher costs, poorer quality, and needless suffering This would prevent cost shifting and “passive privatization”

30. There are affordable solutions to the delivery system’s apparently intractable problems: The Second Stage of Medicare

31. We need to change the way we deliver services “Removing the financial barriers between the provider of health care and the recipient is a minor matter, a matter of law, a matter of taxation. The real problem is how do we reorganize the health delivery system. We have a health delivery system that is lamentably out of date.” Tommy Douglas 1982

32. “I am concerned about Medicare – not its fundamental principles -- but with the problems we knew would arise. Those of us who talked about Medicare back in the 1940’s, the 1950’s and the 1960’s kept reminding the public there were two phases to Medicare. The first was to remove the financial barrier between those who provide health care services and those who need them. We pointed out repeatedly that this phase was the easiest of the problems we would confront.” Tommy Douglas 1979 Catching Medicare’s second stage

33. “The phase number two would be the much more difficult one and that was to alter our delivery system to reduce costs and put the emphasis on preventative medicine…. Canadians can be proud of Medicare, but what we have to apply ourselves to now is that we have not yet grappled seriously with the second phase.” Tommy Douglas 1979

34. The Second Stage of Medicare is delivering health services differently to keep people well

35. With few if any new resources, Canada’s health system could provide: Elective surgery within two months Elective specialized care within one week Same day access to one on our regular primary health care providers – NOT a walk in clinic or ER! A healthier population!

36. These improvements should be implemented in such a way that: Empowers patients and families in their own healthcare, in program planning, and in policy development and implementation Ensures that health care providers are available where patients need care Enhances the quality of worklife of providers Strengthens communities And, Improves Canada’s overall health status and quality of life

37. Toronto Arthroplasty Model Central Intake Assessment Advanced Practice Physio Surgeon Consult Surgery Post-Op Discharge Follow-Up Referring Physician Holland Centre and Toronto Western Holland Centre Mt. Sinai St. Michael’s St. Joseph’s Toronto East General Toronto Western

38. Good News in Hamilton, Winnipeg, Nova Scotia, etc! We could have elective specialty input into patients’ care within 7 days – The Hamilton Family Medicine Mental Health Program increased access for mental health patients by 1100% AND decreased psychiatry outpatients’ clinic referrals by 70%. – The program staff includes 22 psychiatrists, 129 family physicians, 114 Nurses and Nurse Practitioners, 20 Registered Dietitians, 77 Mental Health Counsellors, 7 pharmacists and provides care to 250,000 patients

39. Good News in Cambridge, Cape Breton, Penticton, etc! We could access primary health care within 24 hrs In Cambridge, Dr. Janet Samolczyk aims to see her patients WHEN they want to be seen including within 24 hours

40. New models of care for the elderly and those with serious chronic illness, show great potential for improved quality

41. Step right up! Get your ELIXIR of Health Promotion! Reduce your risk of dying or ending up in a nursing home by over 40%! Increase your chances of staying in your own home by nearly 30%! N Hall et al. Canadian Journal on Aging. 1992;11(1):72-91

42. 42 Get your community services corrective right here! They will reduce your health costs by 50% in 3 years! http://www.hollanderanalytical.com/Hollander/Reports_files/preventivehomecarereport.pdf

43. Going for gold: Re-engineering services to immigrants in Toronto Access Alliance works with immigrant and refugee communities to identify women who are leaders and hires them as community health workers (CHWs) They are given 3 months of paid training and 3 year contracts The CHWs run educational workshops and facilitate well children and well women care CHWs have brought services to more than 12,000 women and their children 85% of CHWs get jobs in health or social services after their contracts are over 43

44. Denmark: A country of best practices 1987 moratorium on building new nursing home beds – Accompanied by giving all benefits of long term care to home care clients – Scandinavian public responsibility for housing – Increased construction of supportive housing 1998 country-wide policy of home visits/assessments for people > 75 – Provide health promotion and system linkages

45. Denmark: A country of best practices Denmark has 17.1% population > 65 while Canada has 15.9% > 65 Total Health spending as share of GDP is about the same in Denmark (11.1%) as in Canada (11.4%) 2010 OECD data Public funding: Denmark 85% Canada 71% – Denmark has better public coverage for home care, drugs, and appliances and devices

46. There is substantial evidence that for profit patient care tends to cost more and is of poorer quality -- but the most salient argument is Tony Soprano’s: “Fuhgetaboutit!” We don’t need it.

47. Summary: Health Care costs are not “out of control” The aging population won’t break the bank Medicare was and is good public policy Healthcare uses antiquated processes of delivery The two key solutions are: – Complete the First Stage of Medicare – Implement the Second Stage of Medicare

48. Courage my Friends, it is Not Too Late to Make a Better World! Tommy Douglas (paraphrasing Tennyson)