1. Copyright ©2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Pearson [imprint] It’s Tourism: Concepts and Practices John Walker Tourism in the Future Chapter 16

2. It’s Tourism: Concepts and Practices John Walker Copyright ©2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Pearson [imprint] Objectives After reading and studying this chapter, you should be able to: –Identify contributing factors that influence the future of travel –Discuss the role government plays in the future of tourism –Evaluate trends that have a positive influence on the future of travel –Identify trends that may inhibit travel

3. It’s Tourism: Concepts and Practices John Walker Copyright ©2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Pearson [imprint] Tourism future: –Likely to continue being the one of fasting growing interrelated industry groupings –UNWTO forecasts 1.6 billion international arrivals by 2020 1.2 billion intraregional travelers 378 million long-haul travelers Predicting the Future of Travel

4. It’s Tourism: Concepts and Practices John Walker Copyright ©2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Pearson [imprint] Top 2020 total tourist arrivals by region –Europe (717 million tourists) –East Asia and the Pacific (397 million) –Americas (282 million) –Followed by Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia Predicting the Future (cont’d.)

5. It’s Tourism: Concepts and Practices John Walker Copyright ©2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Pearson [imprint] Demand factors: –Consumer behavior and preferences –Demographics (e.g., age) are also associated 70 million American baby boomers retiring –Splintering of tourism niche markets –Outbound tourism from China and India –Capacity control and mass tourism Demand Influences and Issues

6. It’s Tourism: Concepts and Practices John Walker Copyright ©2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Pearson [imprint] Supply side: –Will continue to modify product offerings Emphasis on environmental protection –Quality of services in emerging markets must improve –More available experiences will provide greater fulfillment From space tourism to medical and volunteer tourism Supply-Side Influences

7. It’s Tourism: Concepts and Practices John Walker Copyright ©2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Pearson [imprint] Capacity control: –Attempting to limit the number of tourists permitted to visit within the destination’s capacity Some already experience too many tourists Some rely completely on the tourist dollar A balance must be struck –Impacts are environmental, social, and economic and can have negative outcomes Capacity Control and Impact

8. It’s Tourism: Concepts and Practices John Walker Copyright ©2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Pearson [imprint] A number of environmental issues will affect tourism in the future –Sectors are beginning to address and rectify contributions to global warming –Tourism can affect whole ecosystems Damage caused by visitation to sensitive areas Climate change may elevate sea The Environment

9. It’s Tourism: Concepts and Practices John Walker Copyright ©2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Pearson [imprint] Governments and the private sector –Must work together to promote more responsible travel and tourism Alternative fuels Eco-tourism will likely grow –Consumers expect more sustainable vacation experiences Issues of certification and compliance will grow The Environment (cont’d.)

10. It’s Tourism: Concepts and Practices John Walker Copyright ©2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Pearson [imprint] Includes: –Land use planning –Business permits and zoning controls –Environmental and other regulations –Business association initiatives –A host of other techniques used to shape development and daily operations Destination Management

11. It’s Tourism: Concepts and Practices John Walker Copyright ©2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Pearson [imprint] Destinations will find it more difficult to “manage” competing forces –Development and carrying capacity –Increased desire of tourists for destinations to develop in a sustainable manner Destination Management (cont’d.)

12. It’s Tourism: Concepts and Practices John Walker Copyright ©2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Pearson [imprint] Most have amended traditional business models to keep up with the: –Evolution of new technologies –Emerging innovative advertising strategies –Changes in the consumer market –Growing global competition Destination Management (cont’d.)

13. It’s Tourism: Concepts and Practices John Walker Copyright ©2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Pearson [imprint] E-tourism: –Evolved from a trend to a mainstream business reality Creating opportunities and challenges for practitioners and researchers in the area Information technology: –Will improve rapidly to help facilitate tourism and tourists Information Technology

14. It’s Tourism: Concepts and Practices John Walker Copyright ©2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Pearson [imprint] Information access will greatly improve –Technology will improve the travel and tourism experience Visa Waiver Program will increase Bookings will become easier More options will increase competition Transportation will likely be a challenge due to congestion Information Technology (cont’d.)

15. It’s Tourism: Concepts and Practices John Walker Copyright ©2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Pearson [imprint] Current global economic situation –Only a modest growth in tourism is likely in the next few years –Tourists from developed countries will drive tourism by visiting other developed and developing countries U.S., Canada, Mexico, European countries, and Asian countries will see an increase in international visitors Economic Change

16. It’s Tourism: Concepts and Practices John Walker Copyright ©2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Pearson [imprint] Travel and tourism has an enormous impact on the world economy –Receiving increasing attention from local, state, provincial, and federal governments –Perceived as a viable means to stimulate sluggish economies Government Promotion

17. It’s Tourism: Concepts and Practices John Walker Copyright ©2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Pearson [imprint] Governments benefit in the form of increased taxes and other income –Government entities promote tourism directly and indirectly National tourist offices (e.g., Office of Travel and Tourism Industries) –States and provinces also advertise Money raised from taxes and donations Government Involvement

18. It’s Tourism: Concepts and Practices John Walker Copyright ©2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Pearson [imprint] U.S. federal government –Views tourism as a possible means for developing economies of states (e.g., Kentucky) Economic Development Administration has underwritten millions of dollars worth of resort developments for parks Government (cont’d.)

19. It’s Tourism: Concepts and Practices John Walker Copyright ©2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Pearson [imprint] Many areas turn to tourism as the only way of raising up from poverty level –Tourist money is money that is “new” from outside the economy –Triggers rounds of additional spending Government (cont’d.)

20. It’s Tourism: Concepts and Practices John Walker Copyright ©2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Pearson [imprint] U.S. government over the years has become more serious about tourism –Lead to creation of Tourism Policy Council Works with private sector and state and local governments Coordinates national policies and programs relating to international travel and tourism, recreation, and national heritage resources Government (cont’d.)

21. It’s Tourism: Concepts and Practices John Walker Copyright ©2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Pearson [imprint] Trends that favor tourism: –Rising disposable income 67% of travelers are employed full or part time Mean annual household income of travelers is $70,200.12 –Greater discretionary time Retirees Workweek has shrunk Prospects for Future Travel

22. It’s Tourism: Concepts and Practices John Walker Copyright ©2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Pearson [imprint] –Changing family structure Birthrates have declined sharply Sexual equality and shifts in household roles –Increased number of retired persons Earlier retiring ages Pension plans Life expectancy is rising Prospects (cont’d.)

23. It’s Tourism: Concepts and Practices John Walker Copyright ©2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Pearson [imprint] –Change in living conditions Higher homebuilding costs increases living in smaller spaces, stimulating need to get away –Education and shift in values People are thinking in more global terms Shift in values: for many, doing something, or taking part in something, has assumed more importance than material possessions –Travel simplification Tour packages offer simplicity Prospects (cont’d.)

24. It’s Tourism: Concepts and Practices John Walker Copyright ©2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Pearson [imprint] Factors that inhibit travel –Uncontrollable issues Economic uncertainty, recession, political unrest, terrorism, and excessive labor costs in transportation –Travel hassles and security Baggage problems, delays, overbooking, etc. Lack of security in public places Too much security in airports Prospects (cont’d.)

25. It’s Tourism: Concepts and Practices John Walker Copyright ©2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Pearson [imprint] –Health issues Infectious diseases being spread worldwide –Malaria –Bird and swine flu –Schistosomiasis –Dengue Fever –Putzi Fly –African Trypanosomiasis –Rabies –Yellow fever –Tuberculosis –Cholera Prospects (cont’d.)

26. It’s Tourism: Concepts and Practices John Walker Copyright ©2011 by Pearson Education, Inc. publishing as Pearson [imprint] –Instant communication and technology Some technologies eliminate the need for business travel Baby boomers have to put forth the effort to keep up with technology because it played a very limited role, if any, in their youth –Cost and location Economic downturn (e.g., fluctuation oil prices and unemployment levels) results in postponing or putting off trips completely Prospects (cont’d.)