Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 1 The Immaterialisation of Aspirations (consumer led global sustainability) Towards.

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 1 The Immaterialisation of Aspirations (consumer led global sustainability) Towards."— Presentation transcript:

1 Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 1 The Immaterialisation of Aspirations (consumer led global sustainability) Towards the Caring Society David Leevers VERS Associates Virtual Environments for Real Societies London

2 Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 2 The Problem Western lifestyle assumes continually increased consumption – values and aspirations are linked to material progress Western/Global middle class of 1,300 million is growing by 30 million per annum The planet cannot support 10 billion people at a European level of quality of life. Fortress Europe alternative, for 5% of world population, is politically and ethically unsustainable Ethical and Regulatory Push (exhortation, carbon tax, etc.) is unreliable and reduces quality of life. It might reduce Total Environmental Stress but will increase Total Social Stress - a Caring Society perspective is needed

3 Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 3 The Immaterialisation Switch 1, IST Pull, not Regulatory Push The IST community has been hiding the solution for 40 years – Moores Law – the most IST-intensive products double in power every 18 months. Can this alchemy, turning base materials into silicon, help achieve global sustainability? Immaterialisation is the process of replacing a material intensive component of a satisfier of a human needs with an IST intensive alternative. After the Immaterialisation Switch, costs follow a dematerialisation curve greater than the 2% typical of material intensive products and up to the 40% of Moores law.

4 Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 4 The Immaterialisation Switch 2, Materials From Material-Intensive Satisfier to IST-Intensive Satisfier Material Intensity Time But – There are no one-for-one replacements for human Desires/Wants PCs do not replace cars, VR headsets do not replace rooms Dematerialisation records of about 2% per annum Dematerialisation possibilities of up to 40% per annum The Switch, Immediate drop in material use

5 Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 5 The Immaterialisation Switch 3, Costs From Material-Intensive Satisfier to IST-Intensive Satisfier Cost Time Dematerialisation 2% per annum Premium Market Gimmick, prestige, fashion and affluent users Mass Market, Commodity The Switch, Immediate rise in cost, small market, immature technology, unproved service Dematerialisation possibilities of up to 40% per annum

6 Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 6 From Rebound-D to Rebound-I Rebound-D The steady cost reductions of dematerialising products and services increases market size e.g. cheaper cars and fuel leads to more travel Rebound-I Customers may spend the sudden release of funds from the Immaterial Switch on material-intensive luxuries Rebound-I can be avoided by attracting the spare cash to new IST intensive immaterial satisfiers. Windfalls often spent on novelties or on the insurance and pensions that replace having children as protection for old age and disability

7 Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 7 Immaterialisation Switch 4, The ASSIST Vision Total Environmental Stress Year Rebound-D Dematerialisation Rebound Culture Changes, many Immaterialisation Switches from maturing IST Fast Mooree Law Dematerialisation of IST-intensive satisfiers Time

8 Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 8 Removal of carbon subsidies, develop immaterial alternatives. Global warming fund for early sufferers Immaterialisation Switch 5, Policy Implications Total Environmental Stress Year Stress increase from Rebound-D, Dematerialisation Rebound Rapid Mooree Law Dematerialisation of IST-intensive Satisfiers Steady increase in carbon, etc. taxes but only after alternatives have become better Policy Examples: Culture Changes, many Immaterialisation Switches from maturing IST 2020

9 Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 9 The Virtual Reality of the Parent is the Reality of the Child UK Parents dismiss the theme park as an artificial replacement for a seaside holiday town But UK grandparents saw the seaside town as an artificial replacement for open countryside or spa town! Thus lifestyle aspirations depend on belief systems developed in infancy and childhood, modified by later learning – this is the ASSIST Opportunity: not replacing reality with VR but superseding a material intensive culture with an enhanced IST intensive one

10 Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 10 The Caring Process, from Needs to Wants Fundamental higher level human needs are species-specific (social contact, self respect, etc). Their expression in the wants and desires of a lifestyle within a society and belief system, depend primarily on how the brain grows and mind develops during infancy and childhood Wants/desires framework acquired from parents/carers/peers - culture Specific wants/desires come from peers and media - lifestyle An increasing fraction of early culture is acquired from global organisations: brands, children's TV cartoons, intelligent toys, computer games, Internet The later education years are controlled by the state but the early most formative years are controlled by a mix of local community and global media business. Is this the best way to achieve a Caring Society!

11 Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 11 Can we achieve the Immaterialisation Culture Change? a, We have changed culture in the past: The garden is an enhancement/replacement for community territory: - less space, less travel, more private, more flowers, easier to defend, no snakes (after the Eden prototype!) The local leisure centre plus mobile telephone, is an enhancement/replacement for sports ground, theatre and car - less space, less travel, more social contact b, We have to change culture in the future ASSIST research has indicated that Immaterialisation without culture change reduces material consumption by only 25% - not enough to meet even Kyoto requirements!

12 Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 12 Immaterialisation Culture Change From Car and Home Care to People and Body Care Readership of top five magazines, UK Car and DIY magazines Immaterial satisfiers % 6% (Mayfair magazine) % 47% (FHM, Loaded, Cable Guide, Sky customer, Sky view) Material-intensive satisfiers such as cars and DIY are already being replaced by more direct, more immaterial experiences: travelling to remote football stadium replaced by short walk to local bar with big screen television, peer-to-peer sensuality and media experiences Perhaps the body is an immaterial car? Perhaps the bar is an immaterial football stadium? Are the young and the media ahead of the policy makers and the professional middle classes?

13 Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 13 What is Missing in Current Media Experiences? Sense of sharing room with the physical presence of others Freedom to look around and walk around Kinaesthetic social skills including minimal visual cues that permit conspiracy Touch and Smell, Coffee and Lunch The rituals and pleasures of travel, socialising, joining and leaving the meeting The affordances of location – particular places imply particular behaviours If Mature IST can deliver all the above then a sequence of self-contained multimedia events will be superseded by the persistent multimodal reality of the Ambient Intelligence Environment

14 Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 14 Towards the Network/Caring Society The self-contained leisure-gadgets and work-facilitators of the 20 th century Information Society are being superseded by an Ambient Intelligence Environment that will support the Network/Caring Society of the 21 st century. The self-contained gadgets and facilitators of the 20 th century information/consumer society must have contributed to the enormous social and cultural changes of the last 30 years. Have all these changes been for the better? The Ambient Intelligence Environment will have an increasing impact in the next 30 years, particularly during infancy and childhood. Can we predict the social consequences?

15 Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 15 Increasing Inequity, Disappearing Frontiers Income range within countries and between nations has doubled in the last 30 years Globalisation has blurred national boundaries and encouraged the (slow) growth of the integrated mixed culture society of western/global liberal democracy (NB not the polarised multicultural society of multiple ghettos) 1, Quality of life / happiness has not increased in the West - income has little effect on happiness above about $10,000 level - widening the income range appears to decrease happiness - is caring becoming trapped within the rationality of the money economy? 2, Conflict is no longer between developed nations but between the global hegemony and envious, educated outsiders, excluded by alien values - e-war, criminals, terrorists

16 Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 16 Social Change in the Information Society of the last 30 Years (UK) One-Person Households People living alone increased from 6% to 10% of the population from 1970 to 2000 (UK) Enablers - Mature Industrial Technology (washing machines, microwaves and TV dinners), - Early Information Technology (telephone, television the web) Liberation of the individual or escape from traditional caring obligations?

17 Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 17 Social Change in the Information Society of the last 30 Years (UK) 1, Births outside marriage: 8% in 1971, 40% in 1999 (perhaps a good sign, spread of mixed culture society?) 2, Children brought up by lone parent: increase from 7% in 1972 to 21% in 2000 (what replaces the caring and attachment processes of the extended family?) 3, Suicides per 100,000, Decrease for 65 and over, 25 in 1971, 15 in 1998 (The most IST resistant group?) Increases females 15-24, 3 in 1971, 4.5 in 1998 males 15-24, 7 in 1971, 17 in 1998 ( NB 50-75% of male suicides were brought up by lone parent)

18 Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 18 We have to do better than this! - from Information Society to Caring Society We are migrating - from the centralised databases of the Information Society to the peer-to-peer conversations of the Network Society. - from the one-way delivery of Information to the two-way sharing of two complementary components of the Network/Caring Society - Knowledge and Experience. - from Social Control to Social Exchange? Is the digital divide diluting as expensive PCs are replaced by low cost wearables? Is equity increasing as service workers are empowered by IST?

19 Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 19 The Good News Fraction of life spent disabled has already decreases with GDP: from 30% in Sub-Saharan Africa to 10% in the West. This leads to a very high value being palced on life and on avoiding disability Disability and lifetime lines converge at 100 Years, the design lifetime of the human species!

20 Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 20 Caring Society Scenario 1: Adults The Virtual Extended Family Immaterialisation of support for disability - Physical – physical or genetic damage to body - Mental – usually physical damage to brain - Emotional – usually result of inadequate caring Privacy intrusion is integral to care (working outwards from Intensive Care) Loss of privacy must proceed in step with opening and democratising society, permitting increased IST support for those with disability while preventing abuse of information. IST can be an Impedance Matching Device for communication between the disabled and the abled – the eyes of the blind, the ears of the deaf and a reality transformer for the phobic

21 Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 21 Caring Society Scenario 2: Children The Enhanced Fragmented Family The new understanding of attachment, enculturalisation and learning processes through infancy and childhood (from large scale longitudinal studies) can be used to enhance the fragmented family of today (perhaps only mother and child) with tele-present and virtually present alternatives for the many child-care roles played by members of traditional extended families: Multimodal awareness of remote members of family Avatar substitutes for missing members of the family Many television cartoons as well as a few bedtime stories Computer games help in acquiring social values Caring instincts developed via virtual as well as real pets Monitoring and historical record of childhood Ideally enhancements, not replacements

22 Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 22 Caring Society Scenario 3: Society The Western Liberal Democratic Ideal Secular Rational Caring Social Framework Containment of aggression through rituals of democracy – transparency – open society Amplification of family morality to include the whole world (as expressed in UN & EU Aspirations) IST infrastructure behind the Ambient Intelligence Environment will support rapport and trust, caring and commitment across geographical, social, cultural and religious differences. (the early Internet and the emerging consensus global academic and business cultures are limited realisations of this ideal)

23 Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 23 C-Work and C-Commerce! - the New Ways of Working Opportunity Immaterialisation Switches free up income for spending on new IST supported luxuries. Many of these will be investments in new ways of caring and new ways of avoiding disability. The emerging claim culture is a clumsy first step in this direction. It is based on the premise that everyone has the right to a high quality of life Caring will be the biggest growth industry of the next 20 years if European levels of health care do no more than rise to US levels, from 8% to 15% - 8 million new jobs over 20 years!

24 Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 24 Immaterialisation must precede Dematerialisation - Economic Considerations The dramatically increased rate of dematerialisation of IST based products and services is needed to achieve both A high quality of life for all Long term global sustainability Implies the most cost-effective way of achieving long term global sustainability is: Early investment should be in researching and developing a culturally and socially acceptable Network/Caring Society. Later efforts should be devoted to the dematerialisation that will make it sustainable NB a fraction of early funds will be needed for sufferers of particular hot spots of global warming (Alaska, Sahara, Asian deserts)

25 Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 25 Immaterialisation must precede Dematerialisation - Culture Considerations Discourage the Third World from adopting the unsustainable travel and accommodation aspects of Western society. Avoids the potential threat of social instability from: Global Warming Widening gulf between rich and poor (amplified by increased awareness from easy global travel) This approach avoids issues related to preserving cultural heritage, issues which may implicitly trap much of the Third World in cultures that presuppose a brutal life for most of the population, particularly women

26 Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 26 But: Credibility of Immature IST is Poor The reliable PC in the Paperless Office - but paper is part of the solution! Video Conferencing replaces face to face – missing affordances! Virtual Venice replaces Being There – confused objectives! Mature IST Infrastructure The unreliable and self-contained IST gadgets of the past superceded by the pervasive and reliable IST infrastructure of the future Network/Caring Society - the GRID. Mature IST User Interface The Ambient Intelligence Environment of the future will use IST to seamlessly enhance reality, not to replace it, e.g. a small amount of physical travel is enhanced by virtual travel a small amount of physical space is enhanced by virtual space

27 Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 27 Towards the Sustainable Global Caring Society? Care of Others, Social Actualisation Care of Self, Self Actualisation Closed SocietiesOpen Societies Traditional Society Tribal Industrial Society National Information Society Multinational Network/Caring Society Global 3rd World, st World, 2001

28 Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 28 Venice Audience Discussion on the Network/Caring Society Quadrant 1, Enthusiasm for 3 rd World leapfrogging Industrial and Multinational stages 2, Shock at the plausibility of future convergence of 1 st and 3 rd worlds 3, Combining an increasing quality of life with stronger community networking is alien for many of the European high-achievement individuals who are implementing it (high achieving parents often resent the security and contentment this brings to their children!) 4, Europe is seen as the guardian of heritage values rather than a promoter of global values of equity and sustainability Actions: 1, A clearer description of Network/Caring Society is needed 2, How to convey the dynamic nature of cultural heritage?

29 Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 29 Towards SGCS - Sustainable Global Caring Society? Did 20 th Century Information Society damage the peer-to-peer relationships that ensured an adequate level of informal carers in traditional communities? Is the peer-to-peer architecture of the web already starting to turn the tide? – a culture shift already seen in children who are above the digital divide – more immaterial, more equitable, more global and more sustainable? When today's children mature will the unreliable web, only suitable for play today, have become reliable enough to be the primary social infrastructure? Are we investing too much in Ambient Intelligent Adult Environment, leaving the Ambient Intelligent Nursery to business? Are we missing an opportunity for IST R&D to encourage future generations towards the Sustainable Global Network Society?


Download ppt "Beyond the Information Society: Reconciling People Planet and Progress 1 The Immaterialisation of Aspirations (consumer led global sustainability) Towards."

Similar presentations


Ads by Google