Presentation on theme: "Robert Scollay University of Auckland"— Presentation transcript:
1 Robert Scollay University of Auckland Pacific Island Countries in the World Trading System: How the Spread of FTAs Changes the GameRobert ScollayUniversity of Auckland
2 Rapid Spread of FTAs * major feature of world trading system since 1990s in Asia-Pacific region since 2000
3 The Asia-Pacific “noodle bowl” CAFTA-DRCosta Rica, Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua & Dominican RepublicSAFTABangkokBhutanNepalMaldivesPakistanBangladeshSri LankaIndiaAPECNAFTAASEAN + 6 (CEPEA)United States Canada MexicoASEAN + 3 (EAFTA)PeruNortheast AsianChina, Korea JapanANZCERTAChileASEAN (AFTA)BruneiPhilippines VietnamMalaysiaThailand SingaporeIndonesiaAustraliaNew ZealandLaosCambodia MyanmarSource: Inter-American Development Bank
4 Spreading FTAs as a Game-Changer Beforesmall poor countries have specially advantaged access to markets of major developed country partners – generally on lenient termsACP-EU (Lome, Cotonou)PICs-ANZ (SPARTECA)concerns over preference erosion focused mainly on impact of multilateral liberalisation in GATT/WTOrelatively slow moving
5 Spreading FTAs as a Game-Changer Aftersmall, poor countries (e.g. PICs)sharing “special access” with a growing range of other FTA partnersaccelerated pace of preference erosion in key marketsother FTA partners may have better access in some respects e.g. rules of originincreasingly disadvantaged in markets where they lack “special access”especially East AsiaFTAs based on developed country rules increasingly needed to maintain existing market access e.g. EPA, PACER-Plusreciprocity“substantially all trade”
6 Other WTO MembersOther WTO MembersAustraliaNew ZealandPICs (SPARTECA)USA (A)China (NZ)Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, Viet Nam, Singapore, other ASEAN, Chile,All LDCsKorea? Japan? India? Peru?AustraliaNew ZealandPICs (SPARTECA)
7 PICsOther WTO MembersPICSOther WTO MembersJapanIndonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines, Viet Nam, Singapore, other ASEAN,Chile, MexicoIndia? Korea? China?Japan
8 Questions for PICswhere should PICs concentrate their trade negotiating resources?what strategy forPACER-Plus?East Asia?North America?implications for policy on import barriers?
9 Diverse Needs of PICs Scope for Customising FTAs Diversity among PICs in proportion of foreign exchange earnings derived fromexport of goodstourism and other servicesremittances (based on movement of people)development assistanceFTAs can be designed to address PIC interests in all of these areasprecedents elsewhereimplications for PACER-PlusFTA serving PIC interests must cover all of these areasbargaining issues
10 Capacity-Building for Trade The Potential Importance of Aid for Trade Long history in GATT/WTO of recognition but little action on need for capacity-building assistance tomeet obligations under new agreementstake advantage of export opportunities under new agreements“Aid for Trade (AfT) proposed as “circuit-breaker”Implementation remains problematicRegional Trade Facilitation Programme (RTFP) under PACER provided some useful assistance to PICsfocused more on facilitating importsneed balancing assistance with export capacityApplication to FTAs e.g. PACER-Plusidentify areas of need to be addressedtechnology/expertise to meet ANZ biosecurity requirements?infrastructure to link production with export ports?