1. Subtitle text can go here Economic Minute November 13, 2014 Dennis.Hoffman@asu.edu Director Seidman Research Institute

2. 2 “No. 11 Sun Devils beat No. 8 Irish 55-31” Subhead text goes here ASU and Notre Dame Coach Kelly calls it the “Debacle in the Desert”

3. Reflections on 1966 3 from one observer… “In 1966, Notre Dame head coach Ara Parseghian made a decision that would rattle the constituency of the sport” He instructed his players to run out the clock and play for the tie rather than try to win The next week the Irish thrashed USC while Michigan State’s season was over thanks To the Big Ten’s “no repeat” rule for the Rose Bowl Notre Dame was awarded the “national championship” So in 1966, Playing it safe, or complacency paid off The strategy was dubbed “playing it Parseghian” and “playing it Parseghian” paid off In 1966 for the Irish

4. Decade Rank Population Growth (%) Employment Growth (%) Income Growth (%) 1960 - 1970 3 rd 4 th 1970 - 1980 2 nd 3 rd 1980 - 1990 3 rd 5 th 1990 - 2000 2 nd 3 rd 2000 - 2007 2 nd 3 rd 4 th 2008 - 2010 14 th 49 th 44 th 20138 th 10 th 18 th Arizona: A Leading Growth State Annual Growth Rates from U.S. Bureau of Census; U.S. BLS; U. S. BEA

5. 4 State Rank by YTD Percent Change – Sept. 10 7 2 49 6 3 45 9 14 40 Top 10 Growth States U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 123 5 Arizona Job Growth 14 th YTD 2014 (AZ Jobs Up by 1.9% - 25 yr. Average is 3.9%) 8

6. 6 2011 2012 2013 2014 Timeline detail content Year to date Nonfarm Job Growth by State (thous of jobs) Subhead text goes here Staterank% growthnumberjobs North Dakota14.5520.04460.48 Nevada23.5841.781,209.36 Texas33.26362.6111,494.28 Utah43.139.771,321.19 Florida52.94221.617,753.76 Oregon62.8246.941,710.03 Colorado72.7565.212,434.14 Delaware82.5110.68435.58 California92.24337.4315,400.56 Washington102.1965.243,040.57 Arizona141.9448.612,548.14 Eighth in the West

7. 7 2011 2012 2013 2014 Timeline detail content Year to date Goods Prod. Job Growth by State (thous of jobs) Subhead text goes here Staterank % growthnumberjobs North Dakota19.978.492.66 Florida26.7146.32736.64 Nevada36.337.1119.35 Utah45.1710.56214.95 Colorado54.7913.85303.21 Alaska64.262.1853.24 Minnesota73.9116.26431.88 Delaware83.521.5746.31 Texas93.4360.831834.37 Indiana103.2520.19642.05 Arizona47-0.68-1.99289.91

8. 8 2011 2012 2013 2014 Timeline detail content Year to date Construction Job Growth by State (thous of jobs) Subhead text goes here Staterank % growthnumberjobs Nevada110.986.1362 Florida210.8539.19400.46 Utah38.746.3679.07 Minnesota48.047.94106.72 North Dakota58.042.5934.8 Colorado65.837.29132.3 Kansas75.753.2259.26 California85.735.94666.26 Oregon95.544.0376.88 Connecticut105.352.8355.81 Arizona39-1.03-1.27121.13

9. 9 2011 2012 2013 2014 Timeline detail content Year to date NonFarm Job Growth by Metro (thous of jobs) Subhead text goes here Metrorank% growthnumberjobs Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL13.6638.681096.31 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX23.4796.412870.99 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX33.42105.023177.57 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL43.0270.422403.24 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA52.8729.511059.51 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA62.7833.831250.57 Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO72.7735.681322.79 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA82.6154.522145.98 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA92.5946.041822.99 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA102.431.311337.71 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ122.2440.221838.72 9 th in the West

10. 10 2011 2012 2013 2014 Timeline detail content Year to date Goods Prod. Job Growth by Metro (thous of jobs) Subhead text goes here Metrorank% growthnumberjobs Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL16.775.9894.24 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL25.459.23178.72 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA34.767.4162.76 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX44.2323.06568.4 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA54.048.47218.06 Cleveland-Elyria-Mentor, OH63.866.08163.52 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA73.696.17173.1 Denver-Aurora-Broomfield, CO83.625.17148.04 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL93.554.12120.13 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA103.58.43249.09 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ27-0.74-1.59212.16

11. 11 2011 2012 2013 2014 Timeline detail content Year to date Construction Job Growth by Metro (thous of jobs) Subhead text goes here San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA19.625.866.11 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL28.854.4354.53 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA38.4516.18207.57 Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL48.147.4799.17 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA56.415.9899.18 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA66.285.6896.12 Portland-Vancouver-Hillsboro, OR-WA76.083.0853.72 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX84.478.43196.91 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA94.43.0171.4 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL103.081.7257.57 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA113.052.791.13 Pittsburgh, PA121.870.9953.76 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI131.62.37149.87 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ14-1.18-1.0991.53

13. Top Ten Metro Destinations: 2013 1.Houston (55,620) 6.San Antonio (22,392) 2. Dallas (32,641)7.Charlotte (21,382) 3.Phoenix (32,014)8.Nashville (17,975) 4.Denver (26,536)9.Seattle (17,926) 5. Austin (25,90810. Orlando (17,316) Phoenix 3 rd Among Metro Net Migration Destinations (But Phoenix Gained 96,000 in 2006) U. S. Census Bureau

14. 14 So Where do we go from here?? Simply Wait it out “Play it Parseghian”, AZ always comes back Market the State So what are the key assets? Cut more Taxes Which ones? How do we pay the bills? Economic Development Strategy Workforce and Skills Affordable land and labor Most infrastructure in place Can we afford to be complacent this time? Will “playing it Parseghian” work in 2014?