1. California Health Care Employment Outlook: 2010-20
Richard Holden
Regional Commissioner
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
CHWA/CHPC Meeting
September 6, 2012

2. Employment Projections Background
10-year projections made every 2 years
projections cover over 700 occupations and 300 industries
Projections are used to produce the Occupational Outlook Handbook—which has been published since 1949
The BLS Employment Projections Program produces a new set of 10-year projections every 2 years.
The  National Employment Matrix covers over 700 detailed occupations and 300 detailed industries. (Exact numbers are 749 occupations and 328 industries.)
The projections form the basis for data and outlook information in the Occupational Outlook Handbook, with a new edition of the Handbook released shortly after each new set of projections is published. (The edition of the Handbook, prepared using projections, is expected to be released in late March 2012.)
Other users of the projections include:
Career counselors and students making career choice decisions
Mid-career jobseekers looking to switch occupations
State educational program planners reviewing curriculum

3. Other Uses of Employment Projections Data
Career counselors and students making career choice decisions
Mid-career jobseekers looking to switch occupations
Education and training officials to make decisions on policy, funding, and program offerings
Researchers interested in how the economy is changing
A wide variety of people use employment projections data. This includes but is not limited to:
Career counselors and students making career choice decisions
Mid-career jobseekers looking to switch occupations
State educational program planners reviewing curriculum
Researchers interested in how the economy is changing

4. Employment Projections Process
Labor Force
Total and by age, sex, race and ethnicity
Aggregate Economy
GDP, total employment, and major demand categories
Demographics
Fiscal policy
Foreign economies
Energy prices
Monetary policy
Population
Labor force participation rate trends
Occupational Employment
Job openings due to growth & replacement needs
Industry Final Demand
Sales to consumers, businesses, government, and foreigners
Staffing patterns
Staffing pattern ratio analyses
Staff expertise
Replacement rates
Economic censuses
Annual economic surveys
Other data sources
The BLS projections are developed in a series of six steps-
Size and demographic composition of the labor force
The labor force is the number of people available to fill job openings. The projected labor force is based on estimates from the Census Bureau of the future population by age, sex, race, and ethnicity. BLS projects the percent of the population who will participate in the labor force in the coming decade.
The growth of the aggregate economy
A macroeconomic model is used to project Gross Domestic Product, consumer spending, investment, government spending, imports and exports, and other major economic measures.
Final demand by industry sector
The projected final demand categories are disaggregated to project the final demand, in sales to consumers, for each industry sector.
Industry output
Input-Output tables from the Bureau of Economic Analysis are used to determine the relationships between industries and project the output that will be needed from each industry to satisfy the final demand from the previous step, including outputs which are used by other industry sectors as an input towards satisfying their final demand.
Industry employment
The BLS models industry employment as a function of industry output, wages, prices, and time. Together with the industry output projections, employment results provide a measure of labor productivity. BLS analysts examine the implied growth rates in projected productivity for consistency with historical trends. At the same time, analysts attempt to identify industries that may deviate from past behavior because of changes in technology or other factors. Where appropriate, changes to the employment estimates are made by modifying either the employment demand itself or the results from earlier steps in the projections process.
Occupational employment
Occupational demand is projected by applying each industry’s unique staffing pattern to industry employment estimates. BLS analysts consider changes in technology, business practices, and other factors to project how staffing patterns will evolve over the coming decade. Occupational replacement needs are also projected to help determine the total number of job openings projected to be available in each occupation.
Industry Employment
Labor productivity, average weekly hours, wage & salary employment
Industry Output
Use and Make Relationships, Total Requirements Tables
Industry output
Sector wage rates
Technological change
Input-Output Tables 4 4

5. Population and Labor Force
Millions of persons
Population projections shown here are for the civilian non-institutional population aged 16 and over, which excludes members of the Armed Forces and the institutional population.
Fertility, mortality and most importantly, immigration are the main drivers of population growth. Immigrants have high labor force participation rates that, in addition to their increasing numbers, impacts the growth of the labor force.
Population growth and changes in labor force participation rates are the main factors of labor force growth.
To be in the civilian labor force, one must be part of the civilian, non-institutional population, 16 years or older, and either working or actively looking for a job.
The number of persons working or looking for work is projected to increase by 10.5 million over the period, compared to 16.7 million from and 11.3 million from
BLS labor force projections are made for 136 age, race, sex and Hispanic origin groups.
2000
2010
Projected 2020
2000
2010
Projected 2020
Population Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

6. Population Growth Rate
Annual rates of change
The growth of the civilian non-institutional population, 16 and over is projected to slow over the period.
Since 2000, the labor force has experienced a significant slow down replacing the higher rates of growth experienced from
Labor force growth rates have been and will continue to be greatly impacted by the baby boom generation (persons born between 1946 and 1964).
The labor force growth over the period mainly reflected the entry of the baby boomers into the labor force.
This period also coincided with a huge increase in the labor force participation of women.
The projected slowing of the labor force is mainly attributable to the retiring of the earliest baby boomers. By 2020, all baby boomers will be in the 55+ age group, which has distinctively lower labor force participation rates. As a greater share of the boomers reach retirement age, the labor force growth rates are expected to decline more rapidly.
However, this group is expected to stay in the labor force longer than previous generations.
Population Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

7. Labor Force Participation Rates
Percent
Men
Total
This chart shows the convergence of men’s and women’s labor force participation rates throughout the decades. The rise of women’s participation rates seems to have leveled.
From the 1950s until 2000, men and women’s labor force participation rates were converging with declines in men’s participation rate and increases in women’s. Since 2000, men’s labor force participation rate has continued to decline. Women’s labor force participation rate has also declined, but more slowly.
Men’s participation rates have declined since the late 1940’s. The decline is due in part to the increased availability of disability and Social Security benefits.
Women’s participation rate peaked in 1999 at 60 percent and has been declining since then. The BLS is projecting a slight decline in women’s participation rates.
BLS is projecting a decline in overall participation rates for The decline is due in large part to baby boomers leaving the labor force.
Women

8. Labor Force Change by Age Group: Projected 2010-20
In thousands of people
As baby boomers age, the labor force will also get older.
The 55 to 64 age group in the labor force will grow significantly.
The labor force of the 65 and older age group will also grow as more baby boomers enter this age group.
The large increase of year olds is the result of more workers from the baby boom echo generation reaching this age group.
The decline in the 16 to 24 age group of the labor force is the result of the significant decreases in the labor force participation rate of the younger workforce, which is a result of increased school attendance.
The largest drop is in the year old group, as baby boomers age out of this group.

9. Labor Force Growth by Race and Ethnicity
Change in millions, projected
The four yellow bars to the left of the vertical line represent all race groups and the two blue bars to the right of the vertical line represent all ethnicity groups. When you add the bars shown in yellow or the bars shown in blue, they equal total growth in population.
The “Other” category includes 1) those of multiple racial origin 2) American Indians and Alaskan Natives 3) Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islanders.
Although white people are projected to have the slowest rate of growth, they are still adding more workers to the labor force than any other group.
Unlike the changes in race where the white population is projected to add more workers to the labor force than other races despite slow growth, the increase in the number of Hispanic workers is expected to exceed that of Non-Hispanic workers.
The classification of Hispanic ethnicity applies to people of every race.

10. Unemployment Rate
Based on literature reviews and forecasts by other agencies and firms, BLS set the unemployment rate in 2020 associated with a full-employment economy at 5.2 percent.
Due to the unpredictability of the business cycle over a ten-year period, BLS assumes the economy will be at full employment in the projection year (2020).
(For clarification if questions are asked.) Labor supply in the projection year is assumed to be equivalent to labor demand except for a small amount of assumed frictional unemployment, generally estimated by the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). Given the severity of labor market impacts related to the recent recession, there has been much discussion regarding impacts on NAIRU. Based on literature reviews and forecasts by other agencies and firms, BLS set the unemployment rate in 2020 associated with a full-employment economy at 5.2 percent.

11. Historic Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Inflation Rate
Annual rate of change
The inflation rate represented here is measured by GDP price.
Inflation is a monetary phenomenon that is influenced mostly by monetary policy, and to a lesser degree by exchange rates and global monetary flows.
The BLS projections assume the Federal Funds rate will average 4.5% and the 10-year Treasury is projected to reach 5.5% in 2020.
Historic Data Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis

12. Housing Starts: 1960 to 2010 and Projected 2020
(Thousands of units)
Recession year
Housing starts had not fallen below 1 million units before 2008, but were below 600,000 in both 2009 and 2010.
The timing and magnitude of the housing recovery at this time is highly uncertain.
Housing starts are a target variable in the 2020 projections.  The result was carefully analyzed and a target range was set through research including external model analysis, extensive literature review, and discussion with industry experts. 
BLS expects that by 2020, the excess supply of housing will clear, including the overhang of shadow inventory.  The market will be based largely on demographic and economic trends.
Housing starts are projected to reach 1.5 million units in 2020, much improved from just under 600,000 in 2009 and 2010, but considerably lower than the 2.1 million units started in 2005.
Historic Data Source: U.S. Census Bureau

13. Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment
Millions of jobs
Employment on this graph includes non-farm payroll employment, which excludes agricultural, self employed and unpaid family workers.
Employment is expected to grow by 1.4% a year, reversing the 0.2% annual rate decline experienced during the previous decade. The decline from reflects the December 2007-June 2009 recession, and the fact that employment had not fully recovered by 2010.
Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment

14. The “Lost” Decade In 2000, total of 132.4 million jobs
Projection: 152 million total jobs in 2010
Actual: million jobs in 2010
2020 Projected Employment: million

15. Employment by Industry Sector: 2010
Thousands of wage and salary jobs
State and local government, which includes public education and public hospitals, is the largest in terms of jobs by industry sector.
Manufacturing is sixth in terms of jobs, despite being first by a large margin in terms of nominal output, because the sector has very high productivity.
Educational services and health care and social assistance include only private organizations.
Service providing
Goods producing

16. Employment Change by Industry Sector: Projected 2010-20
Thousands of wage and salary jobs
Service providing
Goods producing
Health care and social assistance is expected to add the most jobs, despite being the third largest sector by jobs in The projected change in demographics is largely driving the growth in the number of jobs being added in this sector. The increasing number of people 65 years and older will require more health care.
Of the goods-producing sectors, only construction is projected to have a significant gain in employment. Despite this projected growth, the construction industry is still projected to be below the number of jobs the industry had in 2006.
Federal government is the sector projected to see the largest declines. The increased pressure to reduce the government budget deficit will be one of the major contributors to the loss of employment. The Postal Service is expected to be responsible for almost half of the decrease in employment in the federal government sector. With wider spread use of , online bill pay, and the decrease circulation of magazines, consumers are moving away from services provided by the Postal Service industry.
State and local government includes public education and hospitals.

17. Percent Change in Employment by Industry Sector: Projected 2010-20
Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment
Total nonagricultural wage and salary growth= 1.4%
Health care and social assistance, which is made of private institutions, is the fastest growing industry in addition to being the largest in terms of projected employment gains.
Construction employment is projected to grow fast, but the construction industry in 2020 is still projected to be below the number of jobs the industry had in 2006.
Educational services, which is made of private educational institutions, is the third fastest growing sector in terms of employment. However, it is ranked ninth in terms of the number of jobs added.
Federal government is the sector projected to see the largest declines. The increased pressure to reduce the government budget deficit will be one of the major contributors to the loss of employment. The Postal Service is expected to be responsible for almost half of the decrease in employment in the federal government sector. With wider spread use of , online bill pay, and the decrease circulation of magazines, consumers are moving away from services provided by the Postal Service industry.
State and local government includes public education and hospitals.
Service providing
Goods producing

18. Employment Change by Major Occupational Group
Thousands of jobs, projected
The largest occupational group with over 22.6 million jobs in 2010, office and administrative support occupations are also projected to add the most new jobs: 2.3 million through 2020, despite the group growing slower than average at 10.3 percent. The majority of projected job growth will be recovery from the recession, which caused the loss of 1.7 million jobs for this group from 2006 to 2010.
Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations are projected to add 2.0 million new jobs from 2010 to 2020, the second most of any group. The fast growth for this occupational group is driven by increased spending on healthcare services, particularly from an aging population. Older individuals spend more on healthcare than those who are younger, so as the share of the population aged 65 and older grows, healthcare spending is expected to increase.
Sales and related occupations are projected to add 1.9 million new jobs from 2010 to 2020 as this large occupational group grows at a slightly below average 12.5 percent rate. This follows the loss of 1.1 million jobs from 2006 to 2010.
(Continued on next slide.)
(Continued on next slide)

19. Employment Trends for Occupational Groups whose Employment Increased 2006-10
Percent of 2006 employment
This graph shows occupational groups which grew by at least 2 percent from 2006 to 2010; all of these groups are projected to see continued growth through 2020.
The two groups with the fastest growth from 2006 to 2010 were healthcare practitioners and technical occupations, and healthcare support occupations. These two groups are projected to continue to see strong growth, adding a combined 3.5 million jobs from after gaining 1.1 million from
NOTE: BLS does not project specific data for years to The interim years between 2010 and the 2020 projection point are expressed by a straight dashed line only.

20. Employment Growth vs. Replacement Needs
The new few slides look at job openings for occupations. This combines openings due to growth and openings from the need to replace workers who leave the occupation.
Many replacement openings will be due to retirements. However, many replacement openings occur in occupations, such as cashiers, that have large numbers of young workers, such as high school or college students, who need to be replaced when they leave to find permanent employment.
Compare:
Numeric employment change- the number of jobs an occupation is projected to add
Registered nurses are the occupation projected to add the most new jobs—711.9 thousand from
Job openings- job openings result both from growth and from the need to replace workers who leave the occupation
Replacement needs often create more job openings than employment growth.
The vast majority of the 1.8 million projected job openings for cashiers are from replacement needs, not employment growth.
Job openings can give a different picture than just looking at projected growth. Despite registered nurses being projected to add the most new jobs, cashiers are projected to have over 500,000 more projected job openings due to the large number of replacement needs.
1.8 M

21. Job Openings by Major Occupational Group
Thousands of job openings, projected
This slide couples job openings due to growth and job openings from the need to replace workers who leave the occupation.
Many of these replacement openings will be due to retirements. However, many replacement openings occur in occupations, such as waiters and waitresses, that have large numbers of young workers, such as high school or college students, who need to be replaced when they leave to find permanent employment.
For most occupational groups, job openings from replacement needs outnumber job openings due to growth.
(Continued on next slide.)
(Continued on next slide)

22. Job Openings by Major Occupational Group
(Continued)
Thousands of job openings, projected
(Continued from previous slide.)
This slide couples job openings due to growth and job openings from the need to replace workers who leave the occupation.
Many of these replacement openings will be due to retirements. However, many replacement openings occur in occupations, such as waiters and waitresses, that have large numbers of young workers, such as high school or college students, who need to be replaced when they leave to find permanent employment.
For most occupational groups, job openings from replacement needs outnumber job openings due to growth.
As seen with the farming, fishing, and forestry occupations, job openings will be created through replacement needs even for occupations (or occupational groups) which are projected to decline in employment.

23. Fastest Growing Occupations
Median annual
wages, May 2010
$19,640
$20,560
$81,540
$27,780
$25,760
$29,710
$38,430
$49,690
$26,740
$45,260
Percent change, projected
This slide shows the top ten fastest growing detailed occupations (the largest projected percentage increase from 2010 to 2020).
The increase in health care employment is reflected here with three of the ten in either the healthcare practitioner and technical occupations group or the healthcare support occupations group. (Note, in case of question: following the SOC structure, this includes veterinary technologists and technicians, in addition to home health aides and physical therapist assistants.)
Four of the ten are construction and extraction occupations, which are projected to grow as the construction industry begins to recover from the recent recession.
The two fastest growing occupations, personal care aides and home health aides, will be affected by demographic changes. Both assist the elderly, convalescents, and persons with disabilities in the person’s home or in a care facility. Home health aides provide health services such as administering medications, while personal care aides provide general services, such as cooking meals. The growing elderly population will require some care and assistance in their own homes or health care facilities, which should lead to increased demand for these occupations.
Although biomedical engineers and reinforcing iron and rebar workers are on this list, they are expected to add relatively few jobs, adding 9,700 and 9,300 respectively.
Six of these occupations make less than median annual wage for May 2010 of $33,840.

24. Occupations with the Largest Job Growth
Median annual
wages, May 2010
$64,690
$20,670
$20,560
$19,640
$26,610
$17,950
$30,460
$37,770
$23,460
$45,690
Thousands of jobs, projected
This slide show the ten occupations expected to add the most jobs from
Many of the occupations listed in the table are very large and will create many new jobs despite lower growth rates.
The expected growth in health care will drive the demand for registered nurses, which are projected to add the most new jobs, and home health aides.
Two office and administrative support occupations appear on this list as well (office clerks, general; and customer service representatives), primarily because they are large occupations that are employed across many industries. Both had more than two million jobs in 2010.
Only two of these occupations, home health aides and personal care aides, are also amongst the fastest growing occupations.
Seven of these occupations make less than median annual wage for May 2010 of $33,840.

25. Occupations with the Most Job Openings
Median annual
Wages, May 2010
$20,670
$18,500
$18,330
$64,690
$17,950
$26,610
$23,460
$30,460
$20,560
$22,210
Thousands of job openings, projected
This slide shows the ten occupations expected to have the most total job openings due to both employment growth and replacement needs.
Registered nurses and home health aides are the only occupations on the chart expected to add more jobs due to employment growth than replacement needs.
Of these occupations, only registered nurses make more than the median annual wage for May 2010 of $33,840.
For some of the occupations, such as retail salespersons and cashiers, the replacement needs will be the result of the large number of young workers that leave this occupation permanently. For other occupations, such as registered nurses, the replacement needs will be due to a number of older workers’ retirement.

26. Percent Change in Employment by Typical Entry-level Education Category
Average, all occupations = 14.3%
Percent change, projected
When grouped by typical entry-level education, all education categories that typically need some postsecondary education are projected to have faster-than-average employment growth. Those occupations assigned to the high school or less than high school categories will grow slower than the average.
(Note: These data reflect the sum of base-year and projected year employment for occupations assigned to each category. Some detailed occupations which typically require postsecondary education are projected to grow slower than average, and some detailed occupations which typically require a high school diploma or less are projected to grow faster than average.)

27. Employment Change by Typical Entry-level Education Category
Thousands of jobs, projected
Despite being the only two education categories projected to grow slower than average, occupations that typically need a high school diploma or equivalent or less than high school are projected to add the most and second most new jobs, respectively, due to their large size.
(Note: These data reflect the sum of projected employment change from for occupations assigned to each category. This is not the same as a projection of the number of workers with each of these education levels. Workers may have educational attainment that is either higher or lower than that typically needed for entry into the occupation in which they are employed.)

28. Graduate Degree Occupations with the Largest Job Growth
Median annual
wages, May 2010 N
$62,050
I/R
≥$166,400
$76,310
$112,760
$111,570
$53,380
$47,230
$38,150
$32,350
$72,320
Thousands of jobs, projected
These are the ten occupations that have the largest projected job growth and typically need a graduate degree (Master’s, Doctoral, or Professional degree) to enter the occupation.
Most high-growth occupations in these educational categories are related to healthcare, education, and social services.
The projected increase in the number of postsecondary teachers reflects expanding college enrollments.
‘W’ indicates whether WORK EXPERIENCE IN A RELATED OCCUPATION is also typically needed for entry into the occupation. Assignments are more than 5 years (5+), 1-5 years (1-5), less than 1 year (<1), or none (N).
‘T’ indicates whether ON-THE-JOB TRAINING is typically needed to attain competency in the occupation. Assignments are internship/residency (I/R), apprenticeship (A), long-term (L), moderate-term (M), short-term (S), or none (N).

29. Associate’s Degree or Postsecondary Non-degree Award Occupations with the Largest Job Growth
Median annual
wages, May 2010 N
$64,690
$24,010
$40,380
$25,700
$22,760
$33,470 L
$42,530 5+
$83,860
1-5
$94,400
$30,360
Thousands of jobs, projected
These are the ten occupations that have the largest projected job growth and typically need an Associate’s degree or postsecondary non-degree award to enter the occupation.
At these levels of education, occupations that are projected to gain the most jobs are largely related to healthcare, reflecting the growing medical needs of an aging population.
‘W’ indicates whether WORK EXPERIENCE IN A RELATED OCCUPATION is also typically needed for entry into the occupation. Assignments are more than 5 years (5+), 1-5 years (1-5), less than 1 year (<1), or none (N).
‘T’ indicates whether ON-THE-JOB TRAINING is typically needed to attain competency in the occupation. Assignments are internship/residency (I/R), apprenticeship (A), long-term (L), moderate-term (M), short-term (S), or none (N).

30. Less Than High School Occupations with the Largest Job Growth
Median annual
wages, May 2010 N S
$20,670
$20,560
$19,640
$17,950
$23,460
$18,500
$22,210
$23,400
$29,280
$18,330
Thousands of jobs, projected
These are the ten occupations that have the largest projected job growth and typically do not need a high school diploma to enter the occupation.
While workers might not need a high school diploma to enter these occupations, they typically need on-the-job training to attain competency.
‘W’ indicates whether WORK EXPERIENCE IN A RELATED OCCUPATION is also typically needed for entry into the occupation. Assignments are more than 5 years (5+), 1-5 years (1-5), less than 1 year (<1), or none (N).
‘T’ indicates whether ON-THE-JOB TRAINING is typically needed to attain competency in the occupation. Assignments are internship/residency (I/R), apprenticeship (A), long-term (L), moderate-term (M), short-term (S), or none (N).

31. U.S. Health care Overview

32. Health Care Employment and Annual Rate of Change 2000-2010, 2010-2020
Employment, in thousands

33. Employment, in thousands
Ambulatory Health Care Services Employment Annual Rate of Change ,
Employment, in thousands

34. Healthcare Occupations with the Largest Projected Job Growth in the U
Healthcare Occupations with the Largest Projected Job Growth in the U.S.,
Job growth number
(in thousands)
Job growth percent increase
Job openings due to growth and replacements (in thousands)
Registered Nurses
711.9
26.0
1,207.4
Home Health Aides
706.3
69.4
837.5
Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants
302.0
20.1
496.1
Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses
168.5
22.4
369.2
Physicians and Surgeons
168.3
24.4
305.1
Medical Assistants
162.9
30.9
243.8
Pharmacy Technicians
108.3
32.4
166.3
Dental Assistants
91.6
30.8
154.0
Physical Therapists
77.4
39.0
100.6
Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics
75.4
33.3
120.8

35. Healthcare Occupations with the Fastest Projected Job Growth in the U
Healthcare Occupations with the Fastest Projected Job Growth in the U.S.,
Job growth number
(in thousands)
Job growth percent increase
Job openings due to growth and replacements (in thousands)
Home Health Aides
706.3
69.4
837.5
Veterinary Technologists and Technicians
41.7
52.0
55.7
Physical Therapist Assistants
30.8
45.7
41.2
Diagnostic Medical Sonographers
23.4
43.5
31.7
Occupational Therapy Assistants
12.3
43.3
16.8
Physical Therapist Aides
20.3
43.1
27.6
Physical Therapists
77.4
39.0
100.6
Dental Hygienists
68.5
37.7
104.9
Audiologists
4.8
36.8
5.6
Veterinarians
22.0
35.9
34.2

36. Healthcare Occupations with the Most Projected Job Openings in the U.S., 2010-2020
Job growth number
(in thousands)
Job growth percent increase
Job openings due to growth and replacements (in thousands)
Registered Nurses
711.9
26.0
1,207.4
Home Health Aides
706.3
69.4
837.5
Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants
302.0
20.1
496.1
Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses
168.5
22.4
369.2
Physicians and Surgeons
168.3
24.4
305.1
Medical Assistants
162.9
30.9
243.8
Pharmacy Technicians
108.3
32.4
166.3
Dental Assistants
91.6
30.8
154.0
Pharmacists
69.7
25.4
139.6
Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics
75.4
33.3
120.8

37. Percent of total employment
Employment in Hospitals by Detailed Occupation (includes Private, State, and Local Government Hospitals – May 2011)
Detailed Occupation
Employment
Percent of total employment
Annual mean wage (May 2011)
All Occupations
5,648,820
100.00%
$55,180
Registered Nurses
1,642,900
29.08%
$69,880
Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants
410,690
7.27%
$27,220
Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses
153,450
2.72%
$41,170
Medical Secretaries
137,830
2.44%
$32,490
Radiologic Technologists and Technicians
133,750
2.37%
$56,910
Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners
119,320
2.11%
$23,590
Medical and Health Services Managers
119,020
$101,920
Office Clerks, General
100,080
1.77%
$30,730
Medical and Clinical Laboratory Technologists
98,750
1.75%
$58,650
May 2011 Occupational Employment Statistics

38. Employment per thousand jobs
Top Paying Metropolitan Areas for Registered Nurses, Nationwide (May Top 10 Metropolitan Areas are All Located in California)
Metropolitan area
Employment
Employment per thousand jobs
Location quotient
Annual mean wage
Vallejo-Fairfield, CA
3,370
28.72
1.35
$120,540
San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
12,120
13.82
0.65
$117,590
Oakland-Fremont-Hayward, CA Metropolitan Division
20,090
21.10
0.99
$106,730
San Francisco-San Mateo-Redwood City, CA Metropolitan Division
18,400
19.17
0.90
$105,670
Salinas, CA
2,670
17.57
0.83
$103,310
Sacramento--Arden-Arcade--Roseville, CA
14,850
18.44
0.87
$99,230
Napa, CA
1,370
22.16
1.04
$98,870
Hanford-Corcoran, CA
970
26.65
1.25
$96,950
Santa Cruz-Watsonville, CA
1,690
20.35
0.96
$96,760
Modesto, CA
3,300
22.04
$95,530

39. Percent of Total Employed Black or African American
Employed Persons by Detailed Industry, Sex, Race, and Hispanic or Latino Ethnicity
Industry
Total Employed
(in thousands)
Percent of Total Employed
Women
Black or African American
Asian
Hispanic or Latino
Total, all industries, 16 years and over
139,869
46.9
10.8
4.9
14.5
Health care and Social Assistance Sector
18,902
78.5
16.0
5.5
11.1
Hospitals
6,315
75.8
15.3
7.2
8.7
Health services, except hospitals
9,367
78.1
15.9
5.1
11.2

40. California Population and Labor force Overview

41. Labor Force Share by Sex
2010

42. Labor Force Share by Race
2010

43. Labor Force Share by Race
2010

44. Labor Force Share by Race
2010

45. Labor Force Share by Ethnicity
2010

48. California Counties with the Largest Population Growth, 2010-2050
Bubble size represents 2010 population

49. California health care industry projections

50. Employment Change by Industry Sector: Projected 2010-20, California
Source: California Employment Development Department, Industry Projections

51. Percent Change in Employment by Industry Sector: Projected 2010-20, California
Source: California Employment Development Department, Industry Projections

52. Employment Change in Healthcare and Social Assistance Sector
2008 – 2018 by County
Includes Ambulatory Healthcare Services, Hospitals (private), Nursing and Residential Care Facilities, and Social Assistance
Source: California Employment Development Department, Industry Projections

53. Percent Change in Healthcare and Social Assistance Employment
2008 – 2018 by County
Includes Ambulatory Healthcare Services, Hospitals (private), Nursing and Residential Care Facilities, and Social Assistance
Source: California Employment Development Department, Industry Projections

54. Projected Employment in Ambulatory Health Care Services, 2008-2018
Percent Growth
Bubble size represents 2018 projected total employment
Source: California Employment Development Department, Industry Projections

55. Projected Employment in Private Hospitals, 2008-2018
Percent Growth
Bubble size represents 2018 projected total employment
Source: California Employment Development Department, Industry Projections

56. Bubble size represents 2018 projected total employment
Projected Employment in Nursing and Residential Care Facilities,
Percent Growth
Bubble size represents 2018 projected total employment
Source: California Employment Development Department, Industry Projections

57. California health care occupational projections

58. Employment by Major Occupational Group in California
Occupational Title
Annual Average Employment
Employment Change
2012 First Quarter Wages
2010
2020
Numerical %
Median Annual
Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations
1,248,500
1,572,000
323,500
25.9
$19,451
Office and Administrative Support Occupations
2,487,000
2,789,700
302,700
12.2
$35,914
Sales and Related Occupations
1,581,400
1,880,800
299,400
18.9
$28,164
Personal Care and Service Occupations
730,300
933,100
202,800
27.8
$22,808
Business and Financial Operations Occupations
821,000
983,500
162,500
19.8
$68,837
Transportation and Material Moving Occupations
936,700
1,096,500
159,800
17.1
$29,524
Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations
735,600
893,100
157,500
21.4
$77,945
Management Occupations
1,099,900
1,214,400
114,500
10.4
$108,870
Construction and Extraction Occupations
607,900
721,800
113,900
18.7
$50,489
Computer and Mathematical Occupations
468,800
576,600
107,800
23.0
$88,960
Education, Training, and Library Occupations
983,700
1,089,600
105,900
10.8
$53,909
Source: California Employment Development Department, Occupational Projections

59. Employment by Major Occupational Group in California
Occupational Title
Annual Average Employment
Employment Change
2012 First Quarter Wages
2010
2020
Numerical %
Median Annual
Healthcare Support Occupations
388,200
483,600
95,400
24.6
$29,066
Building and Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations
556,500
647,900
91,400
16.4
$24,350
Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Occupations
498,700
574,200
75,500
15.1
$45,887
Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media Occupations
407,400
461,800
54,400
13.4
$55,770
Community and Social Service Occupations
230,300
274,300
44,000
19.1
$47,446
Production Occupations
815,700
858,900
43,200
5.3
$29,378
Architecture and Engineering Occupations
316,500
358,000
41,500
13.1
$88,008
Protective Service Occupations
366,100
405,000
38,900
10.6
$47,055
Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations
185,600
224,200
38,600
20.8
$70,470
Legal Occupations
137,400
152,500
15,100
11.0
$102,580
Farming, Fishing, and Forestry Occupations
315,100
319,800
4,700
1.5
$18,816
(cont…..)
Source: California Employment Development Department, Occupational Projections

60. Healthcare Occupations with the Largest Job Growth in California
Occupational Title
Annual Average Employment
Employment Change
2010
2020
Numerical
Percent
Registered Nurses
251,800
306,100
54,300
21.6
Home Health Aides
61,100
93,100
32,000
52.4
Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants
109,500
134,100
24,600
22.5
Medical Assistants
80,900
99,000
18,100
22.4
Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses
64,500
79,000
14,500
Pharmacy Technicians
29,000
38,600
9,600
33.1
Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics
15,900
22,600
6,700
42.1
Pharmacists
23,600
29,900
6,300
26.7
Dental Assistants
43,700
49,000
5,300
12.1
Physicians and Surgeons, All Other
34,600
4,700
15.7
Source: California Employment Development Department, Occupational Projections

61. Fastest Growing Healthcare Occupations in California
Occupational Title
Annual Average Employment
Employment Change
2010
2020
Numerical
Percent
Home Health Aides
61,100
93,100
32,000
52.4
Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics
15,900
22,600
6,700
42.1
Diagnostic Medical Sonographers
5,300
7,300
2,000
37.7
Occupational Therapy Assistants
2,700
700
35.0
Pharmacy Technicians
29,000
38,600
9,600
33.1
Pharmacy Aides
8,100
10,700
2,600
32.1
Veterinary Technologists and Technicians
8,400
11,000
31.0
Physical Therapist Assistants
4,600
6,000
1,400
30.4
Athletic Trainers
1,000
1,300
300
30.0
Physical Therapist Aides
6,400
8,300
1,900
29.7
Source: California Employment Development Department, Occupational Projections

62. Average Annual Job Openings
Average Annual Job Openings (Growth + Replacement Needs) California Healthcare Occupations
Occupational Title
Average Annual Job Openings
New Jobs
Replacement Needs
Total Jobs
Registered Nurses
5,420
4,560
9,980
Home Health Aides
3,200
790
3,990
Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants
2,470
1,410
3,880
Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses
1,450
1,720
3,170
Medical Assistants
1,810
1,240
3,050
Pharmacy Technicians
960
500
1,460
Dental Assistants
530
920
Pharmacists
630
600
1,230
Physicians and Surgeons, All Other
470
590
1,060
Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics
670
320
990
Source: California Employment Development Department, Occupational Projections

63. Average Annual Job Openings
Top Average Annual Job Openings for Healthcare and Social Service Occupations
Los Angeles County
Average Annual Job Openings
2010-1st Quarter Wages
New Jobs
Replacement Needs
Total Jobs per Year
Median Annual
Registered Nurses
1,820
1,079
2,899
$80,890
Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses
580
628
1,208
$48,007
Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants
877
321
1,198
$24,275
Medical Assistants
634
242
876
$28,940
Home Health Aides
560
125
685
$21,130
Dental Assistants
263
210
473
$29,523
Pharmacy Technicians
181
161
342
$35,499
Physicians and Surgeons, All Other
118
129
247
N/A
Pharmacists
103
138
241
$120,616
Healthcare Support Workers, All Other
141 75
216
$32,324
Source: California Employment Development Department, Occupational Projections

64. Riverside/San Bernardino Counties Average Annual Job Openings
Top Average Annual Job Openings for Healthcare and Social Service Occupations
Riverside/San Bernardino Counties
Average Annual Job Openings
2010-1st Quarter Wages
New Jobs
Replacement Needs
Total Jobs per Year
Median Annual
Registered Nurses
518
373
891
$76,486
Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses
122
187
309
$43,502
Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 91
278
$24,475
Medical Assistants
192 76
268
$26,101
Dental Assistants 97 79
176
$30,013
Home Health Aides
133 37
170
$21,024
Pharmacy Technicians 77
153
$34,754
Emergency Medical Technicians and Paramedics 49 38 87
$32,123
Pharmacists 28 44 72
$121,830
Physicians and Surgeons, All Other 35 34 69
N/A
Source: California Employment Development Department, Occupational Projections

65. Marin/San Francisco/San Mateo Counties Average Annual Job Openings
Top Average Annual Job Openings for Healthcare and Social Service Occupations
Marin/San Francisco/San Mateo Counties
Average Annual Job Openings
2010-1st Quarter Wages
New Jobs
Replacement Needs
Total Jobs per Year
Median Annual
Registered Nurses
181
266
447
$101,345
Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 18
101
119
$58,255
Home Health Aides 66 30 96
$23,281
Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 28 63 91
$33,368
Medical Assistants 52 37 89
$39,056
Dental Assistants 50 87
$40,344
Pharmacy Technicians 43 42 85
$41,504
Massage Therapists
$28,486
Pharmacists 17 31 48
$124,787
Dental Hygienists 16 24 40
$112,881
Source: California Employment Development Department, Occupational Projections

66. Sacramento/Placer/Yolo/El Dorado Counties Average Annual Job Openings
Top Average Annual Job Openings for Healthcare and Social Service Occupations
Sacramento/Placer/Yolo/El Dorado Counties
Average Annual Job Openings
2010-1st Quarter Wages
New Jobs
Replacement Needs
Total Jobs per Year
Median Annual
Registered Nurses
393
261
654
$92,678
Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants
124 64
188
$28,765
Home Health Aides
125 32
157
$21,471
Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 93
$54,611
Dental Assistants
100 51
151
$38,335
Medical Assistants
101 31
132
$29,365
Dental Hygienists 67 36
103
$94,088
Pharmacy Technicians 46 82
$38,867
Massage Therapists 19 50
$35,985
Pharmacists 22 28
$126,985
Source: California Employment Development Department, Occupational Projections

67. Average Annual Job Openings
Top Average Annual Job Openings for Healthcare and Social Service Occupations
San Diego County
Average Annual Job Openings
2010-1st Quarter Wages
New Jobs
Replacement Needs
Total Jobs per Year
Median Annual
Registered Nurses
452
374
826
$80,734
Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 94
159
253
$47,797
Medical Assistants
170 75
245
$30,303
Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants
160 85
$24,250
Home Health Aides
152 40
192
$21,607
Dental Assistants 93 72
165
$36,143
Pharmacy Technicians 71 64
135
$37,262
Physicians and Surgeons, All Other 47 54
101
N/A
Pharmacists 33 48 81
$120,859
Dental Hygienists 37 30 67
$93,723
Source: California Employment Development Department, Occupational Projections

68. Average Annual Job Openings
Top Average Annual Job Openings for Healthcare and Social Service Occupations
Orange County
Average Annual Job Openings
2010-1st Quarter Wages
New Jobs
Replacement Needs
Total Jobs per Year
Median Annual
Registered Nurses
500
365
865
$77,209
Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants
232 83
315
$26,371
Home Health Aides
246 52
298
$23,605
Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses
123
170
293
$51,053
Medical Assistants
184 84
268
$31,572
Dental Assistants
112 92
204
$32,566
Pharmacy Technicians 75 65
140
$35,432
Veterinary Technologists and Technicians 54 37 91
$31,102
Physicians and Surgeons, All Other 38 41 79
N/A
Pharmacists 33 44 77
$118,547
Source: California Employment Development Department, Occupational Projections

69. Alameda/Contra Costa Counties Average Annual Job Openings
Top Average Annual Job Openings for Healthcare and Social Service Occupations
Alameda/Contra Costa Counties
Average Annual Job Openings
2010-1st Quarter Wages
New Jobs
Replacement Needs
Total Jobs per Year
Median Annual
Registered Nurses
453
316
769
$99,961
Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants
236 89
325
$30,466
Home Health Aides
225 44
269
$20,344
Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses
111
150
261
$58,735
Medical Assistants
144 49
193
$34,140
Dental Assistants 83 50
133
$45,088
Dental Hygienists 73 48
121
$102,055
Pharmacy Technicians 52 47 99
$40,596
Healthcare Support Workers, All Other 36 21 57
$37,979
Pharmacists 32 53
$123,018
Source: California Employment Development Department, Occupational Projections

70. U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Western Information Office www. bls
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Western Information Office

71. Resources for Additional Information
Employment Outlook:
Resources for Additional Information
The next few slides present some resources for additional information about the BLS projections.

72. Occupational Outlook Handbook
The Occupational Outlook Handbook includes job descriptions, education and training requirements, salary data and job outlook information. The edition is expected to be published online in later March 2012, and will include nearly 350 occupational profiles covering more than 500 detailed occupations. (Many profiles cover multiple similar occupations.)
Information about an occupation can be found by:
Using the A to Z index on the homepage (it can’t be seen on the screenshot, but it’s below the “Ways to use the OOH” box
Using the “Search the OOH” function on the left hand side
Navigating major occupational categories on the left hand side

73. Occupational Outlook Quarterly
The “Occupational Outlook Quarterly” includes articles about education, careers and BLS data. There are four editions of the OOQ each year. Every two years the OOQ puts out a “Chartbook,” that coincides with the release of the Projections. The Chartbook presents the results of the employment projections graphically.
Examples of past articles:
“Focused jobseeking: A measured approach to looking for work”
“Mapping out a career: An analysis of geographic concentration of occupations”
“Informational interviewing: Get the inside scoop on careers”
Many articles profiling occupations or occupational groups, such as:
“Work for play: Careers in video game development”
“Helping those in need: Human service workers”
“Medical physicists and health physicists: Radiation occupations”
“Paid to persuade: Careers in sales”
To subscribe:

74. Employment Projections Program
The Employment Projections homepage provides access to the detailed projections data and information about replacement rates and education and training categories.

75. January 2012 Monthly Labor Review
Overview of projections to 2020
The U.S. economy to 2020: recovery in uncertain times
Labor force projections to 2020: a more slowly growing workforce
Industry employment and output projections to 2020
Occupational employment projections to 2020
The Monthly Labor Review (MLR) is principal journal of fact, analysis, and research from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. With each biennial release of new employment projections data, the MLR devotes an issue to summarizing the projections. The projections are covered in the January 2010 MLR, in a series of five articles:
"Overview of projections to 2020" by Dixie Sommers and James C. Franklin
"The U.S. economy to 2020: recovery in uncertain times" by Kathryn J. Byun and Christopher Frey
"Labor force projections to 2020: a more slowly growing workforce" by Mitra Toossi
"Industry employment and output projections to 2020" by Richard L. Henderson
"Occupational employment projections to 2020" by C. Brett Lockard and Michael Wolf

76. Useful Employment Projections Sites
Technical documentation of Employment Projections Program methods and data
Other Employment Projections Program publications, including five Monthly Labor Review articles
Frequently asked questions
A few pages on the Employment Projections site may be particularly useful.
The technical documentation presents projections methodology, information on classification and crosswalks, and definitions and concepts used in the Employment Projections Program.
The publications page lists publications (in addition to the Occupational Outlook Handbook and Occupational Outlook Quarterly), including links to the five Monthly Labor Review articles referenced on the previous slide.
A Frequently Asked Questions page presents answers to some of the most common projections-related questions.

77. State and Local Area Projections
BLS prepares projections only for the nation as a whole
Projections of industry and occupational employment are prepared by each state, using input from the BLS national projections
State projections data, and links to each state’s projections site, are available
While the BLS projections are only for the nation as a whole, each state government makes projections for their state, and some make projections for local areas.
State projections data is available at
Because the BLS national projections are an input to state projections, publication of the state projections lags behind publication of BLS’s national projections.

78. Projections Evaluation
Last performed for projections
Comparisons were difficult due to classification changes
BLS projections outperformed naïve models
Direction of employment change was generally correct
The last evaluation of BLS projections was performed for the projections.
Comparisons of the projections to actual results were difficult due to changes in occupational and industry classifications and other definitional changes.
Comparisons were made between BLS projections and naïve models. (Naïve models—based entirely on extrapolation of historical data, with no qualitative input—were used because there are no other widely-published projections for the period to compare BLS’s accuracy against.) On the whole, BLS projections outperformed the naïve models, but not projecting the housing bubble or the rise in oil prices did cause some inaccuracies in the BLS projections.
BLS correctly projected the direction of employment change (i.e. growth or decline) for 72% of industries and 66% of occupations evaluated. (Not all industries and occupations could be evaluated due to classification changes.)
More information can be found in the September 2010 edition of the Monthly Labor Review.