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Weather Model Development for Aviation Stan Benjamin and Steve Weygandt: Assimilation and Modeling Branch, Chief/Deputy NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory,

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Presentation on theme: "Weather Model Development for Aviation Stan Benjamin and Steve Weygandt: Assimilation and Modeling Branch, Chief/Deputy NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Weather Model Development for Aviation Stan Benjamin and Steve Weygandt: Assimilation and Modeling Branch, Chief/Deputy NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Global Systems Division, Boulder, CO Stan/Steve: Lead/Expert Model Development and Enhancement Product Development Team, AWRP/FAA 12h NOAA HRRR model forecast Valid 03z NOAA/ESRL/GSD30 Oct 2013 1 Aviation Model Development Observed radar 03z June 30 2012

2 An Important Pinpoint Prediction Challenge: The 29 June 2012 Mid-Atlantic Derecho A fast-moving damaging wind event… 700 mile long swath of damage, 5 million without power, 22 fatalities 2 PM 4 PM 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MID 11 AM Start HRRR run

3 Computer weather modeling: What is the potential? HRRR 2012 derecho loop Observed radar HRRR forecast initialized 15z (11am Eastern Time) 29 June 2012 – Mid-Atlantic/DC thunderstorm/derecho event

4 Computer weather modeling: How is it done? 4 Weather computer model: Solve physics equations at many points repeatedly to mimic time- evolution of 3-D of temperature, wind, moisture, clouds, etc. 1800 points Model Terrain 1800 x 1060 points x 50 levels = 95,000,000 3-d points every 20 seconds 50- levels

5 NOAA Next-Generation Model Development RAP HRRR RAP - Rapid Refresh –NOAA “situational awareness” model for high impact weather –New 18-hour forecast each hour –NOAA operational – 1 May 2012 –Hourly use by National Weather Service, Storm Prediction Center, FAA, private sector HRRR – High-Resolution Rapid Refresh -Next-generation storm/energy/aviation guidance -New 15-h forecast each hour -Real-time experimental on ESRL supercomputer -Open ftp access

6 RAP and HRRR data assimilation 6 RAP Data Assimilation cycle Observations Hourly cycling model HRRR EnKF- Hybrid + Radar and Cloud anx Radar and Cloud anx + 3DVAR

7 Operational Prediction Process Observations Objective Analysis ( adjust background) Model Prediction Analysis Update Cycle Human Forecaster Statistical post- processing (downscaling, probability) Data Assimilation

8 HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR Milestones Rapid updating – Why do it? Better forecasts 6 AM time 9 AM noon 3 PM6 PM 12-h fcst Truth 12-h update to previous forecast More frequent model updates with newer obs Smaller adjustments 9-h fcst 6-h fcst  3-h fcst  3-h update to previous forecast Next forecast

9 Benefits of Rapid Cycling NWP Rapid update cycling with latest observations improves short-range forecasts ( including upper-level winds) RUC jet-level (35 kft) wind forecast errors 3-h fcst wind errors 6-h fcst wind errors 12-h fcst wind errors LAX ORD LAX ORD LAX ORD NOAA/ESRL/GSD12 July 2012 9 Aviation Model Development NOAA/ESRL/GSD30 Oct 2013 9 Aviation Model Development

10 RAP error reduction to 1-h forecast 1h 3 6 12 18h Rapid Refresh Wind forecast accuracy vs. forecast length The Rapid Refresh is able to use recent obs to improve forecast skill down to 1-h projection 1 Jan - 7 Mar 2012 - Verification against weather balloon data NCEP Production Suite Review4-5 December 2012Rapid Refresh / HRRR 10 NOAA/ESRL/GSD30 Oct 2013 10 Aviation Model Development

11 Rapid Refresh Hourly Update Cycle 1-hr fcst 1-hr fcst 1-hr fcst 11 12 13 Time (UTC) Analysis Fields 3DVAR Obs 3DVAR Obs Back- ground Fields Partial cycle atmospheric fields – introduce GFS information 2x/day Cycle hydrometeors Fully cycle all land-sfc fields (soil temp, moisture, snow) Hourly Observations RAP 2013 N. Amer Rawinsonde (T,V,RH)120 Profiler – NOAA Network (V)21 Profiler – 915 MHz (V, Tv)25 Radar – VAD (V)125 Radar reflectivity - CONUS1km Lightning (proxy reflectivity)NLDN, GLD360 Aircraft (V,T)2-15K Aircraft - WVSS (RH)0-800 Surface/METAR (T,Td,V,ps,cloud, vis, wx) 2200- 2500 Buoys/ships (V, ps)200-400 Mesonet (T, Td, V, ps)flagged GOES AMVs (V)2000- 4000 AMSU/HIRS/MHS radiancesUsed GOES cloud-top press/temp13km GPS – Precipitable water260 WindSat scatterometer2-10K Nacelle/Tower/Sodar20/100/10

12 Observations assimilated in hourly updated models (Rapid Refresh) - All used to initialize 3km HRRR Radar reflectivity 12

13 HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR Milestones High Resolution – Why do we need it? RAP HRRR Thunderstorm ~3km horizontal resolution needed to “resolve” thunderstorms

14 HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR Milestones High Resolution – Why do we need it? RAP HRRR Thunderstorm ~3km horizontal resolution needed to “resolve” thunderstorms …but 4x resolution costs 64x computer power

15 13-km 6hr forecastHRRR 6hr forecast 13-km Resolution Parameterized Convection 3-km Resolution Explicit Convection 5 PM EDT observed 07 June 2012 NO STORM STRUCTURE NO ESTIMATE OF STORM PERMEABILITY ACCURATE STORM STRUCTURE ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF STORM PERMABILITY HRRR (and RAP) Future MilestonesHRRR Milestones 3-km HRRR – what it gets you...

16 Radar Obs 06:00z 18 May 2013 05z + 1 hour Radar data assimilation: Getting storms in the right places 1-hr fcst radar DA (13-km and 3-km) 1-hr fcst NO radar DA

17 Run model backwards in time (reversible processes only) Run model forward in time (heating from radar observations) Digital filter after backward and forward step Forward integration,full physics with obs-based latent heating -20 min -10 min Initial +10 min + 20 min RAP / HRRR model forecast Backwards integration, no physics Initial fields with improved balance, storm-scale circulation 17 Radar data assimilation: How it works for RAP and HRRR

18 00z init 00z 12 Aug 2011 Convergence Cross-Section RAP HRRR RADAR RAP HRRR no radar Rapid convective spin-up with radar data Radar data assimilation: How it works for RAP Reflectivity

19 +1 hr fcst 01z 12 Aug 2011 Convergence Cross-Section RAP HRRR RADAR RAP HRRR no radar Rapid convective spin-up with radar data Radar data assimilation: How it works for RAP Reflectivity

20 Cloud and Hydrometeor Analysis Hydrometeor designation from radar Adjust cycled explicit cloud fields using METAR and satellite data YES HM 29 th Conf on EIPT (IIPS)08 January 2013High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 20 NOAA/ESRL/GSD30 Oct 2013 20 Aviation Model Development

21 Observations Data Assimilation Cycle Rapid cycling NWP Data Assimilation and Rapid Cycling Numerical Weather Prediction (model) Air transportation (NextGen) Detailed, precise short-range weather guidance needed for: Required for improved weather guidance for: Turbulence Ceiling/visibility Convective weather Icing Terminal/enroute weather Safety and efficiency

22 Aviation hazard forecasts – all based on RAP and HRRR models (out to 15-18h) Hourly updated 13km Rapid Refresh model forecasts (development supported by FAA/MDE, NOAA) Refreshing from latest observations every hour gives better accuracy

23 23 Subset of full domain An example of computations needed 1800x1059x50 grid points = 95 E6 grid points x 50,000 floating pt ops per grid point = 4.75 E12 FPA / time step x 2160 time steps / 12h forecast = 10 E15 FPA / 12h forecast 10,000,000,000,000,000 calculations for one 12h HRRR CONUS forecast Weather computer model: Solving physics equations on many points repeatedly to provide 3-D forecast forecast of temperature, wind, moisture, clouds, etc. 1800 points 1060 points

24 ModelVersionInitialized Forecast Length Run Time# CPUsDisk Space RAPWRFv3.3.1+Hourly18 hrs~30 min200230 GB (per run) HRRRWRFv3.3.1+Hourly15 hrs~50 min1128800 GB (per run) ModelRun at:Domain Grid Points Grid Spacing Vertical Levels Height Lowest Level Pressure Top Initialized RAP GSD, NCO North America 758 x 567 13 km508 m10 mb Hourly (cycled) HRRRGSDCONUS 1799 x 1059 3 km508 m20 mb Hourly (no-cycle) RAP and HRRR Resources CW Overview Meeting12 June 2012High-Resolution Rapid Refresh 24 NOAA High-Performance Computer System Number of Filesystems Total Reserved Disk Space CPU Type Total Reserved CPUs Performance Increase Jet (current)4150 TBIntel Nehalem1736- Zeus (new)2230 TBIntel Westmere2000-400030% NOAA/ESRL/GSD12 July 2012 24 Aviation Model Development NOAA/ESRL/GSD30 Oct 2013 24 Aviation Model Development

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