1. Status of operational NWP system and satellite data utilization at JMA APSDEU-8 Montreal, Canada, October 10-12, 2007 Masahiro KAZUMORI Numerical Prediction Division, Japan Meteorological Agency 1-3-4, Otemachi, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8122, JAPAN kazumori@met.kishou.go.jp Courtesy of H. Murata (MSC) and NPD colleagues

2. Contents Current NWP system at JMA Recent developments Plans for JFY2007 and after

3. Contents Current NWP system at JMA Recent developments Plans for JFY2007 and after

4. NWP system at JMA 8 th NWP system called NAPS-8

5. Numerical Analysis and Prediction System Kiyose 2 nd Building Kiyose 1 st Building JMA Headquarters

6. Supercomputers of JMA HITACH SR11000(since Mar. 2006) – 2.1GFlops×16processors×8 0nodes×2=21.5TFlops – 1.9GFlops×16processors×5 0nodes×1=6.1TFlops – 13.1TB Main memory – 67TB Disk – 2PB Tape HITACHI SR11000 -210nodes 50nodes 80nodes 27.6Tflops Main usage: 50 nodes(sub1 system) : Re-analysis and climate model 80 nodes(sub2 system) : Pre-operational model (20km Global model) 80 nodes(sub3 system) : Operational global and meso-scale model

7. Current Operational NWP Models Regional model (RSM) Horizontal Resolution: 20 km Updates: 2 times a day Global model (GSM) Horizontal Resolution: 60 km Updates: 4 times a day Mesoscale model(MSM) Horizontal Resolution: 5 km Updates: 8 times a day

8. Current NWP models at NPD/JMA Global Model (GSM) Regional Model (RSM) Typhoon Model (TYM) Mesoscale Model (MSM) One-week Ensemble ObjectivesMedium-range forecast Short-range forecast Typhoon forecast Disaster reduction One- week forecast Forecast domain Global East Asia Typhoon and its surrounding Japan and its surrounding Global Grid size / Number of grids 0.5625 deg 640 x 320 (TL319) 20 km 325 x 257 24 km 271 x 271 5 km 721 x 577 1.125 deg 320 x 160 (TL159) Vertical levels / Top 40 0.4 hPa 40 10 hPa 25 17.5 hPa 50 21,800m 40 0.4 hPa Forecast hours (Initial time) 90 hours (00 UTC) 216 hours (12 UTC) 36 hours (06, 18 UTC) 51 hours (00, 12UTC) 84 hours (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC) 15 hours (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC) 33 hours (03, 09, 15, 21 UTC) 9 days (12 UTC) 51 members Analysis 4D-Var Inner model: T106 4D-Var Inner model: 40km Interpolated from Global Analysis 4D-Var Hydrostatic 10km Inner model: 20km Global Analysis with ensemble perturbations

9. Contents Current NWP system at JMA Recent developments Plans for JFY2007 and after

10. Recent developments Oct. 2006 BUFR winds of GOES-11/12 and MTSAT-1R started to be used instead of SATOB winds. Feb. 2007 Assimilation of AP-RARS (Asia-Pacific Regional ATOVS Retransmission Service) data started. Mar. 2007 Assimilation of GPS-RO (Radio Occultation) data from CHAMP started. Apr. 2007 Assimilation of NOAA18/AMSU-A, MHS started. Jun. 2007 Direct assimilation of clear-sky radiances of water vapour channel from MTSAT-1R/IMAGER started. Aug. 2007 Assimilation of EARS (EUMETSAT Advanced Retransmission Service) ATOVS data started.

11. BUFR winds of GOES-11/12 and MTSAT-1R Data assimilation of BUFR coded AMV data with QI (2006.10)  Improved thinning  Improved use of QI  Improved QC  Discontinue of Obs. Error adjustment  Use of MTSAT-1R hourly AMVs QI

12. Wind speed （ Jan.2005, 300hPa, Right:Test ， Left:Cntl ） RMSE of Obs. against Guess Number of used data Bias of Obs. against Guess

13. Kiyose (Tokyo) Seoul Beijing Guangzhou Urumuqi Crib Point 1 Crib Point 2 (Melbourne) Perth Syowa Station Network Configuration (as of August 2007) GTS circuits Domestic links HRPT receiving stations Regional ATOVS Retransmission System (RARS) Modified by H. Murata Singapore Darwin

14. AP-RARS and EARS data Available data coverage AP-RARS (red) and EARS (blue) Available data coverage AP-RARS (red) and EARS (blue) GTS (global data) EARS ATOVS (GTS route) ATOVS data latency at JMA RARS data is expected to bring positive impacts on early analysis and forecast at JMA. Cut off time of Meso-scale analysisCut off time of global early analysis

15. NOAA18 AMSUA NOAA15 AMSUA without AP-RARS with AP-RARS AP-RARS NWP Benefits Analysis difference (early - cycle) at 500hPa geopotential height

16. NOAA18 AMSUA NOAA16 AMSUA without EARS with EARS EARS NWP Benefits NOAA15 AMSUA Analysis difference (early - cycle) at 500hPa geopotential height

17. GPS Radio Occultation data Refractivity from CHAMP C 1 =77.6 ｘ 10 -6 C 2 =0.373 Forward N : Refractivity n : Refractive index Tangent Linear Adjoint Low computational costs and effective method. --- Refractivity assimilation --- ● Distributed data ① Refractivity n 1 ② Position vector at the tangent point ● Procedure of data assimilation ① Calculate the refractivity ( n 2 ) at the tangent point using forward model from the first guess. ② Sum of n 2 -n 1 and distance from the first guess was minimized from first guess using JMA global 4D-Var system.

18. GPS Radio Occultation data Data distribution of CHAMP Analysis increment by CHAMP Assimilation of CHAMP refractivity showed small positive impact on forecast skill. Implemented in Operational DA system in Mar.2007 Hope to see large impacts from COSMIC data.

19. NOAA-18/AMSU-A, MHS radiance data 3 AMSU-A (NOAA15,16,Aqua) 4 AMSU-A (NOAA15,16,18,Aqua) 3 AMSU-B (NOAA15,16,17) 4 AMSU-B (NOAA15,16,17,18) NOAA-18 data bring wide data coverage in the early analysis and better forecasts. Expanded data coverage by NOAA-18 data in JMA global early analysis Red ： W NOAA-18 Blue: W/O NOAA-18 Red ： W NOAA-18 Blue: W/O NOAA-18 N.H. Z500 RMSE (Aug. 2006) N.H. Z500 RMSE (Jan. 2007)

20. MTSAT-1R CSR Clear Sky Radiances (CSR) from MTSAT-1R WV channel – Meteorological Satellite Center (MSC) of JMA produces – ready for dissemination to NWP community. (Current user: ECMWF,CMC) clear ratio O-B mean=-1.7 std=2.18 O-B map 10 -10 -5 5 0 00 UTC Sep.14 2006

21. MTSAT-1R CSR Verification period: August 2006 Red ： Without CSR Blue: With CSR CSR provide moisture information in middle and upper troposphere. Using CSR data together with polar-orbiting satellite data (AMSU-B) bring much moisture information around Japan. Assimilation CSR data showed positive impact on typhoon forecast score. Operational use started in 7 June 2007. Typhoon track forecast verification

22. Performance of GSM  NH Z500 (Day 2)  SH Z500 (Day 2)  NH Z500 (Day 5)  SH Z500 (Day 5)

23. Performance of GSM

24. Recent Operational Changes to MSM Extended forecast time from 15 hours to 33hours (03, 09, 15, 21 UTC Initial) Improvement of surface and boundary layer scheme, radiation scheme, cumulus parameterization scheme Use of Non-hydrostatic model in 4D-Var outer loop forecast model(2007.5) Improvement of heavy rain forecasts.3-hour precipitation forecasts at 15hour forecasts from 21UTC 29 June, 2006 Initial. Old (left), New (center), Radar-AMeDAS observation (right) New-MSMOld-MSM Observation

25. Data use in Global Analysis (1/2) SYNOP BUOY SHIP AIRCRAFT PAOB RAOB PROFILER AMV

26. Data use in Global Analysis (2/2) SeaWinds GPS-RO SSMI TMI AMSR-E AMSU-A AMSU-B CSR

27. Data use in Mesoscale Analysis ATOVS retrievals AMV, SeaWinds Microwave radiometer (TPW, Rain rate) SYNOP,SHIP, BUOY RAOB, Wind Profiler, Doppler radar Air craft

28. Contents Current NWP system at JMA Recent developments Plans for JFY2007 and after

29. NWP models at JMA in the near future (Late 2007-) Global Model (GSM) Typhoon Ensemble One-week Ensemble Mesoscale Model (MSM) One-month Ensemble Objectives Short-range, medium- range and typhoon forecast Typhoon track forecast One-week forecast Disaster reduction One-month forecast Forecast domain Global Japan and its surrounding Global Grid size / Number of grids 0.1875 deg 1920 x 960 (TL959) 0.5625 deg 640 x 320 (TL319) 0.5625 deg 640 x 320 (TL319) 5 km 721 x 577 1.125 deg 320 x 160 (TL159) Vertical levels / Top 60 0.1 hPa 60 0.1 hPa 60 0.1hPa 50 21,800m 60 0.1hpa Forecast hours (Initial time) 84 hours (00, 06, 18 UTC) 216 hours (12 UTC) 84 hours (00, 06, 12, 18UTC) 9 days (12 UTC) 51 members 15 hours (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC) 33 hours (03, 09, 15, 21 UTC) Once a week Analysis 4D-Var Inner model: T159 Global Analysis with SV perturbations 4D-Var based on non- hydrostatic meso- model JCDAS

30. TL959L60 Global Model (20km-GSM) Comparison of New 20km-GSM and RSM (Regional model) Forecast score against initial Dec. 2005 and Jan.2006Aug. and Sep. 2004 Performance of the new 20km-GSM is superior to JMA Regional model (RSM 20km resolution). Parallel run of 20km-GSM started 26 Sep. 2007 and 20km-GSM will be implemented into operational system in Nov. 2007.

31. Plans for JFY2007 and after Nov. 2007 Implementation 20km Global model Typhoon Ensemble 0.25 deg. SST analysis data for GA Use of Metop ATOVS data for GA Mar. 2008 MTSAT-1R hourly AMV for MA GOES11/12 and Meteosat7,9 CSR data for GA ASCAT: need level2 ocean surface wind data AIRS radiance data for GA SSMIS radiance data for GA GRACE GPS-RO data for GA Improved assimilation of scatterometer Ocean Vector Winds (ambiguity winds) Non-hydrostatic based 4D-Var for MA After New satellite data (IASI) and cloud/rain-affected radiances data Radiance assimilation in MA Pre-operational run started in 26 Sep. 2007