1. Employment in China After It Reached Lewis Turning Point CAI Fang Institute of Population and Labor Economics Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

2. Neoclassical Contracts to Lewisian

3. This Presentation Intends to How demographic transition reshaped LM and employment in China Employment problems mixed by factors of both neoclassical and dual economy characteristics 3 groups with special vulnerability exposed to cyclical & natural unemp’t with focus on migrant workers

4. Demographic Transition and Labor Market Outcomes

5. China Demographic Transition

6. Demography-resulted Labor Shortage

7. Labor Force Is Aging

8. Labor Demand Continues Increasing

9. Scenarios of Labor Demand

10. Wages Increases in All Sectors

11. Challenges Are Brand New for Chinese Governments

12. From Dual to Neoclassical Scenario

13. Workers’ Expectation Increasing, too

14. Gov’t Identified 3 Vulnerable Groups

15. Incomplete Urbanization

16. Agricultural Labor Is Aging

17. Migrants’ Insecure Employment

18. Low Coverage of Social Security

19. Policy Agenda for New Era Integrating labor market (hukou reform) Labor market institutions (collective bargaining) Broader social protection mechanism Employment-centered macroeconomic policy

20. Thank you for attention