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Economic Indicators and Business Discussion on what cos. Look in economic statistics…

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Presentation on theme: "Economic Indicators and Business Discussion on what cos. Look in economic statistics…"— Presentation transcript:

1 Economic Indicators and Business Discussion on what cos. Look in economic statistics…

2 Economic Indicator Variables/Indices sending signals on economies performance.. Types: Leading indicators consistently turn before the economy does. Coincident indicators turn in step with the economy and track the business cycle's progress. Lagging indicators turn after the economy turns, and play a confirming role.

3 Examples: Leading indicators: Bond price to predict stock market trend.. Coincident indicators: personal income changes same as total GDP Lagging indicators: unemployment rate confirms economic up or down turn..

4 The genus of leading indicators.. In 1950, Moore built on his mentors' findings to develop the first leading indicators of both revival and recession. In the 1960s he developed the original index of leading economic indicators (LEI). It is a testament to the quality of that breakthrough that, nearly half a century later, many still believe the LEI and its variants to be the best tools for cycle forecasting.

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6 India – Key Economic Indicators 2012 vs. 2001 6 20122001 Population1.22 bn1.03 bn GDP (at current prices)US $ 1,800 bnUS $ 492 bn Per capita income (nominal)US $ 1,480US $ 460 Exports - MerchandiseUS $ 305 bnUS $ 44.5bn Imports - MerchandiseUS $ 489 bnUS $ 50.5 bn Share in world trade (exports + imports)4.2%1.5% Export - ServicesUS $ 142 bnUS $ 16.3bn Import – ServicesUS $ 78 bnUS $ 14.6bn Foreign Currency ReservesUS $ 295bnUS $ 39.5 bn External DebtUS $ 376 bnUS$ 99.6 bn Average exchange rate / US$54.547.7

7 Use of Economic indicators in strategic business plans This collaborative research project between Financial Executives Research Foundation (FERF) and Merrill DataSite explored the. The research looked at: the issue from both a qualitative and quantitative perspective. On the qualitative side, senior level financial executives were surveyed using a 15-question online survey instrument. In-depth telephone interviews were conducted with 19 senior financial executives. These interviews consisted of nine open-ended questions and were completed during July and August 2011.

8 Some of the key survey findings included the following: The four most widely followed indicators are inflation (57%), the unemployment rate (54%), oil prices (39%), and GDP (32%). The two most cited purposes for using economic indicators are budgeting/forecasting (83%) and strategic planning (71%). 57% of respondents currently have open positions they are looking to fill.

9 Key interview findings were: Inflation, the unemployment rate and GDP are good general economic indicators but each company should follow those indicators that are the best predictors for their business and/or specific industry. Even though the unemployment rate remains high, finding qualified candidates with the needed specific job skill sets has proven difficult. Both business and the general public have lost confidence in the ability of the government to make the difficult and unpopular decisions needed to move the economy and country forward. Economic Indicators are tools that can be used in the business planning/decisionmaking process but they should not be a company’s only tools.

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13 Survey takeaways: The four most widely followed indicators are inflation (57%), the unemployment rate (54%), oil prices (39%), and GDP (32%). The two most-cited purposes for using economic indicators are budgeting/forecasting (83%) and strategic planning (71%). 57% of respondents currently have open positions they are looking to fill.

14 Lets find some economic indicators: Go to dbie.rbi.org.in What is the trend of employment in rural and urban area and for both combined under broad categories of employment (primary, secondary, tertiary) The BPL category is 22% in India. What are the top 5 states and UTs having highest and lowest BPL% of population and how much. Throw light on number of educational institutes and their growth in Indian economy. What is the trend of major food and non food items production in India. What are the popular ones.

15 Go to: http://drshradhabanga.jimdo.com/ http://drshradhabanga.jimdo.com/ Download macro economics data Download components of gross domestic product Find trend of : GDP, NDP at fc and mp, GDP, GNP Agriculture, industry, service sector contribution..


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