1. steve_raney@cities21.org 2008 Suburban Silver Bullet: PRT Shuttle + Digital Mobility for SRP Steve Raney, Cities21 –Palo Alto native –Research & advocacy non-profit Not a system builder, not asking for $50M –13 person, three-year, 188 pg study Advised by Berkeley’s Robert Cervero Transportation Research Board / TRR.

2. steve_raney@cities21.org Thanks MVPs –13 person, three-year study –Cities21 member Joe Kott, EPRI for interviews & 62 surveys –Stanford Management Company (NOT on-board, but very helpful) Valuable Feedback: 200+ meetings –Constituents: Bern Beecham, Yoriko Kishimoto, College Terrace (Pria Graves, John Ciccarelli), Gary Fazzino, Joe Simitian's staff, Joint Venture Silicon Valley, SVMG, Stanford Research Park companies (Roche, EPRI, SAP, Lockheed, HP, Daimler Chrysler). –Agencies: Caltrans, Caltrain, VTA, Environmental Protection Agency's Best Workplaces for Commuters, Mineta Transportation Institute, MTC, Peninsula Traffic Congestion Relief Alliance, RIDES, San Jose Redevelopment Agency, and University of California PATH, CCIT, and Transportation Center. –Advocates: Transportation and Land Use Coalition (TALC), BayRail Alliance, SaveSFBay, California Futures Network, STIR project, Packard Foundation, California Affordable Housing Law Project. –Real-estate interests: Palo Alto Housing Corporation, ULI.

3. steve_raney@cities21.org California Trends 600,000 new residents per year Traffic congestion is worsening Jobs moving to exurbs Increasing housing costs Permanent govt fiscal constraints  “Dumb growth” in Central Valley –Berkeley “CA at 50M Project” –Diridon: Merc: “60M S.G. Reasons”  Need large scale change –New solutions for old problems.

4. steve_raney@cities21.org Suburban Silver Bullet: Halve SOV Commutes Goals: –Remove many cars from suburban office parks Current: 78% drive alone, 16% shared ride, 3% transit –Intensify land use / reclaim parking lots What works? –$10/day parking (effective, but unpopular) –Hypothesis: PRT Shuttle + Digital Mobility PRT = Personal Rapid Transit No “lifestyle sacrifice” Year 2008 scenario.

5. steve_raney@cities21.org Customer-Centered Product Research Literature Product Concept Interviews Experts Commute Refined Concept Surveys Validation Silicon Valley style New technology bias –High touch / community building is natural –Takes on personality of researching organization Start with rough business case in mind and refine.

6. steve_raney@cities21.org PRT – Rapid Local Shuttle Feeder / Distributor / Circulator –Similar to a monorail. VideoVideo High service level, no waiting, faster than a car. –Non-stop, 30 MPH –Bypasses intermediate stations –Ride alone or with 1-2 people you choose –Convenient stops by buildings (not on street) –Comfortable, quiet, safe, no exhaust –24x7 3 companies developing –MN (60’ track), TX, UK (1km track).

7. steve_raney@cities21.org PRT 5 mile alignment Vehicle Storage

8. steve_raney@cities21.org Stanford Research Park In Palo Alto, CA 20,000 jobs Campus-style Parent of Silicon Valley 50% asphalt Commute Shed: –47% within 2 miles of Caltrain –49% within 10 miles 185 edge cities > Memphis

9. steve_raney@cities21.org Promising Results (62 surveys) Promising, but not definitive Solo commutes: 89%  45% –Carpool: 9%  32%, train: 0%  15.5% train –For 20K people, removes 6,600 autos (roughly) @ 350 s.f. per space  50 acres  $326M hsng profit 1.32 PRT trips/day/person => 26K trips/day –PRT: profitable (capital, O&M) Huge transit village  land value increase Apply to 6M workers in major emp. centers –1.98M cars, 12B VMT, 424M gals, 8.4B lbs CO 2 Like Stanford/Exxon $225M Global Climate & Energy Project.

10. steve_raney@cities21.org Comprehensive, Integrated Mobility Door to Door Centralized Cars: share, rent, ride home Delivery services, Personal activities, Business services first mile Train first mile Bus Walk Bike, scooter, Segway (Smart jitney) Web/wireless coordination Supportive policy context Scale! Short carpool pick up first mile Long carpool Improved match-making Shared parking PRT shuttle system LAST MILE mid-day trips

11. steve_raney@cities21.org Marketing: D2D Mobility Door to door mobility & errands in-between! Same convenience & flexibility as driving alone Commute alternatives partnership Transit agencies, City of Palo Alto, Stanford, employers, cellular operator, taxi; car sharing, car rental, bike coalition, ridesharing Delivery services: meals, groceries, dry cleaning, photos, produce, shoe repair, etc..

12. steve_raney@cities21.org Cellular Solutions Marauder’s Map (GPS) –Transit, rideshare connections –Get home safe (Big Sister is watching) RF / WiFi / Bluetooth ID –Identify yourself to transit fare gate, parking lot gate, car sharing –Credit card transactions Cell phone: high IQ smartcard –Display, keypad, interactivity, network.

13. steve_raney@cities21.org Old transit village 20 acres Jobs “New Suburbanist” Transit Village New retail New housing Train Station PRT shuttle system Extended T.O.D. 1280 acres Reduced auto dependence: < 50% SOV trips (for workers, residents, & shoppers.) Child/Senior mobility! Business Services: Banks, PC store, copies, FedEx, legal, accounting, etc. Personal Activities: Quality schools, day care, hiking, parks, movies, grocery, banks, restaurants, cafes, bars, grocery, gym, massage, yoga, dentist, etc. Efficient: transit node + vibrant place, shared parking, lower living cost, less car ownership, more time. A new choice! (versus buying beyond the greenbelt). Jobs/Housing Re-balance: workforce housing

14. steve_raney@cities21.org Literature + Interviews + Surveys Large solo driving reduction is hard Last mile problem is very important –Mid-day trips: 2X value of time –Workers are unhappy with bus shuttles Each commuter: basket of objections –PRT last mile is important, but not sufficient 30% time penalty: OK Carpool psychology is complex: –Matchmaking: anonymous, superficial rejection (web dating) –Sleep, uncertainty stress, and safety are important Short Caltrain or carpool with PRT: OK Customer support: eliminate nightmares Stranding: want “no penalty” emergency ride home Good commute: “time went fast.”

15. steve_raney@cities21.org THE END Less traffic More affordable housing More vibrant city Less pollution & greenhouse gas No cost to taxpayers Political “ask”: Palo Alto adopt franchising strategy (like electric trolleys in 1888) –Private sector takes financial risk –Long list of constituent conditions.

16. steve_raney@cities21.org Quantum Innovation / Public Policy Innovations produce winners & losers Political subsystems favor incremental change –ag, defense, energy, transit, healthcare, edu, etc. –“analysis is politics by other means” –Auto/highway subsystem trumps transit Public sector: huge penalty for failure Media stifles innovation, accentuates conflict Macropolitical system can impose quantum change – earmarks, etc.

17. steve_raney@cities21.org JFK, Nixon, Wright Brothers “... we choose to go to the moon in this decade, and do other things... not because they are easy, but because they are hard…” –John F. Kennedy “If we can send three men to the moon 200,000 miles away, we should be able to move 200,000 people to work three miles away.” –Richard M. Nixon Wright Brothers were not the first attempt –Wrong Brothers –Many smart people said man will never fly.

18. steve_raney@cities21.org PA Franchise Strategy City of Palo Alto statement of intent. $1/yr franchise. –City: egress, right-of-way, general plan, zoning Workforce preference housing (motivates employers) Conditions –New housing ONLY IF car count decreases –Constituent votes: neighborhoods, retailers, all PA citizens, Stanford –Employers form Transportation Mgmt Assoc. (TMA) Car sharing, ride home, 511-style support, marketing, CULTURE –EIR: noise, visual, school. Staff neighborhood analysis. –Transit union support (more jobs, housing preference) –“Tear down” insurance, operating insurance PRT developer captures part of real-estate upside –“Super-normal” profits necessary to attract investment Electricity: 1.8MW 8AM peak  no new capacity.

19. steve_raney@cities21.org PRT Political Viability / Palo Alto Mature democracy + entrenched capitalism makes first system extremely difficult –Quantum change versus incremental change Stamps, trolley (utilities & R.E. speculators, not horse cart), chatting on the phone, naval continuous-aim firing –Systems 2 thru 100 are easy –Cities, SVMG, Sierra can’t fund $300K due diligence studies Palo Alto –Credibility: better data, biz case, get published, conspirators –Present to Planning Commission Ask: franchise strategy: no risk, no taxpayer cost, huge upside Enable a private sector project (more upside for early investors) –Stanford President Hennessy (MIPS) – can say “yes” Visit SkyWeb MN or ULTra UK 10 other efforts worldwide.

20. steve_raney@cities21.org PRT Investor Due Diligence The Team – entrepreneurial cost control, etc. –IBM vs. IBM skunk works Control system design (architect spends 1/3 of time writing documentation) Control system safety certification –Public utilities commission? –Each SW “version” requires painful re-certification Annual operating costs –Video surveillance, etc. –Insurance for the first system will be high Switch reliability (1 fail out of 2M trips  50 days) Performance degrades near capacity (wave-offs).

21. steve_raney@cities21.org PRT control system technology “Trains” –Morgantown GRT since 1974 –BART / NYC Automated Train Control –4M automated trips/day –SFO automated people mover, etc. –Frog navigation (ULTRA, park shuttle) Cars: Platooning, precision docking, lane keeping –TRW’s $1.5M ULTra / AHS control system project (sensors, etc) –Governor’s film “The Sixth Day” uses GM OnStar “autopilot” –DARPA grand robotic vehicle challenge: $35K Golem Group –U.C. PATH: Automated highways, automated BRT (radar – adaptive cruise control, lidar, WiFi, cheap magnets, diff. GPS coming) –Daimler Chrysler: Chauffeur II truck control project (electronic tow-bar, infrared imaging, drive-by-wire) –Toyota IMTS bus, self-parking Prius –Adaptive cruise control, Vehicle Infrastructure Initiative –CVHAS: 2xCA, MN, FL. BRT consortium: Vegas, Eugene, Hartford. –Japan AHSRA consortium, South Korean project.

22. steve_raney@cities21.org PRT Visual Impact Important issue –Big parking lots are more inviting to PRT than downtowns Visual vocabulary –Freeway overpasses versus roller coasters –Visarc.com –Chalmers U. study: blend in w/ historic downtown Portable full scale model –Walk underneath it. Human visual perception sys. 3D VR simulation Survey: How will ULTra look in cities? –80% say good or excellent.

23. steve_raney@cities21.org PRT+D2D Economics

24. steve_raney@cities21.org PRT Capital Cost Defense The development team is very important PRT developers can defend their costs –SkyWeb’s independent cost scrub #2 Key: private sector incentives, not “cost plus” –Roller coaster / gondola project mgmt, not APM / LRT. (See Andrew Jakes article “Why APMs are so expensive.”) BART GRT study independent costing –$10M to $15M per mile for 5 miles Clarian People Mover: $14.2M/mile.

25. steve_raney@cities21.org Security / Terrorism / Safety Reduce world’s hate for U.S., oil dependence Permission based parking & PRT access –Can even run FBI background checks on folks PRT video surveillance PRT algorithmic detection –Flag station entry without boarding –Left a package in empty vehicle HomeSafe prevents carpool assaults.

26. steve_raney@cities21.org Big Sister / Privacy Opt-in versus “no-opt” HomeSafe deters assaults for carpools amongst strangers TrakRide increases courteous behavior Consent required for each personal data “use” –Boss can’t track you Use data protection best practices –Independent data protection audits –Two people w/ two different passwords.

27. steve_raney@cities21.org CA Ave Caltrain: PRT design Little things like open doors before stopping Up stream storage

28. steve_raney@cities21.org TDM Effectiveness TDM (transportation demand management) programs are crucial, yet few shift more than 15% net. EPA Best Workplaces for Commuters 41 case studies: –25%: Paid parking / transportation allowance. Reductions: 16, 25, 28, 20, 16, 25, 34, 25%.

29. steve_raney@cities21.org Social Entrepreneurism micro-credit, India street kids, AIDs education Act local (small $), strive 4 widespread impact Government is not the solution (resistant) S. E. characteristics: –Boring at dinner parties –Driven, stamina, undeterred –“Ends" oriented Will change/refine tactics –Listener (behavioral) –Cross-disciplinary, practical. David Bornstein

30. steve_raney@cities21.org Toxic Releases Accidental releases “Sensitive Receptors” –Kids –Seniors –green “Risk Contour” –Where in the air? –Red A “desk study” –New housing & biotech –See SVMG policy paper Balance in-fill & biotech.

31. steve_raney@cities21.org Large Research Project 10 Multidisciplinary projects –GIS map 8,200 employee addresses –Full scale PRT model –3D virtual city & micro simulation –13 one-hour interviews (lit review) –  62 surveys, 40 minutes per –Cellular SW design (patent pending) –Smart parking design –Economics / greenhouse gas –Urban planning: Local workforce housing preference Housing in SRP: toxic releases Affordable hsng project: 2787 Park Blvd.

32. steve_raney@cities21.org New Mobility ITS to compete with driving alone –“… pairing clusters of smart technologies with existing transportation options to create a coordinated, intermodel transportation system that could substitute for the traditional auto.” – Susan Shaheen, U.C. Senior Researcher GPS Wi-Fi phones improve reliability of train and carpool connections –Key: SOV is a “no brainer.”

33. steve_raney@cities21.org Technology curve

34. steve_raney@cities21.org Wireless Commute Assistant Big Sister knows where & who you are Wi-Fi payment Customer support QuickCar, < 5 minutes Trip planning, travel advisory Order a PRT vehicle Shared parking entry, QuickCar key Easy PRT ticketing Improved indoor reception NextTrain TrakRide for carpools HomeSafe, SpyKids NextSpace for parking GPS: tracking

35. steve_raney@cities21.org A pick up B C 7:20AM: on time A pick up B C 7:29AM: 2 min late A pick up B C 7:25AM: 2 min late A pick up B C 7:32AM: arrival TrakRide AM pickup A: 10 min B: 7 min C: 3 min SMS nudge to A at 7:10, 7:15 A departs OK B is 2 min late C delays 2 min Encourages punctuality, courtesy. Eliminates uncertainty.

36. steve_raney@cities21.org NextTrain TR 6:35 6:30 6:25 LV TM RC MPUNIV CA When to leave desk Race to train station –Worker must “win” PRT wait = fcn(demand) Slack TR: 6:35PM train is on time Every 30 sec, recalculate –TTAT: time to access train = 1 min walk + 1 min wait + 4 min PRT + 1 min walk + 2 min slack –LV = TR - TTAT –TM: current time Small beep @ 5, 2 min to LV NextTrain orders PRT vehicle 2 min before LV Time: 6:24PM 2 nd train arrives 6:50PM TR 6:35 6:30 6:25 TM UNIV CA Time: 6:31PM, 2:00 minutes slack 2 nd train arrives 6:51PM E-shuttle

37. steve_raney@cities21.org “Hands-free” PRT ticketing WiFi phone  traveler ID to gate (context!) Gate displays likely destination Traveler boards (or “pick a station” UI) Automatic credit card debit Example: Jim uses 5 of 19 stations: –If @ Caltrain {5AM-11AM}  EPRI (job) –If @ EPRI {10AM-2PM}  [4 luncheon stations] –If @ [lunch station] {10AM-3PM}  EPRI –If @ EPRI {3PM-7PM}  Caltrain.

38. steve_raney@cities21.org Smart Parking Accurate real-time car count –Proves unused spaces for in-fill Drivers can park in any available lot –Carpools can park at office park edge Drivers directed to available lots Permission based solution: –Cellular WiFi ID & license plate recognition –Gated entrance –Tight security: authorized entry only –Special policy for retail areas –$0.50 per day parking charge.

39. steve_raney@cities21.org GPS / Location Tracking for Cellular FCC E-9-1-1 requirement Nextel network / Motorola handset –$149 color GPS handset, $50 grayscale –Network tells handset which satellites to scan for –Walkie-Talkie –$10/mo additional data charge –Apps: auto navigation, fleet tracking / job dispatch.

40. steve_raney@cities21.org Anti-PRT Hobbyist Opinion Papers Silver Bullet via private sector obliterates 90% of arguments Randall O’Toole, MN: lightrailnow.org –Authors have something to lose if PRT succeeds. Not neutral Empathy for ROT: congestion pricing, kill public transit & smart growth. PRT forestalls. Contrarianism  closed minded (as coping strategy) Empathy for LRN: LRT projects take 5+ years of advocacy, PRT competes. This is a common phenomenon –Scholarship: no peer review, no empirical research –“mixed metaphors” / damn present using unrelated past –Confusion over the PRT concept Hate it. Read about it. Imagine bizarre implications –Lack of insider knowledge, relevant background, technical insight versus Cybertran control system design, only U.S. citizen at ULTra test track, 500+ hours with Taxi2000, rare Morgantown research, BART GRT study, rare Austrans presentation, U.C. PATH exposure, TRB experience Due diligence is necessary before investing in PRT –Many issues –Opinion papers focus on the wrong issues.

41. steve_raney@cities21.org

42. Survey: Logistics 2 year relationship with EPRI 10 minutes with C.O.O. Ric Rudman –  permission to “swarm” the company for a day –Get EPRI to take some ownership Negotiate with –Cafeteria for $8 lunches –Facilities for putting up the PRT model –IT for web access, scheduling 66 people, 2 x 15 –HR for e-mail invitations every day.

43. steve_raney@cities21.org Survey protocol ~2 people every 15 min Rob or Jeral greets them Education: full size model Clipboard: current commute Education: Movie, virtual city, benefits, survey Commute comparison e-mailed Participant takes survey (25 minutes) –Print out last page for free $8 lunch We spend about 40 minutes for participant.

44. steve_raney@cities21.org Large Research Project 10 Multidisciplinary projects –GIS map 8,200 employee addresses P&TC presentation March ‘03 –Full scale PRT model –3D virtual city & micro simulation –13 one-hour interviews (lit review) –  62 surveys, 40 minutes per –Cellular SW design (patent pending) –Smart parking design –Economics / greenhouse gas –Urban planning: Local workforce housing preference Housing in SRP: toxic releases.

45. steve_raney@cities21.org Demand Analysis Problem Forecast commute mode split & PRT ridership Service doesn’t exist –Pick the “least worst” methodology –Significant educational component New tech product research (Silicon Valley) –Iteratively listen to customers & design solutions.

46. steve_raney@cities21.org SOV preferrers face same time advantage VTA’s model: 30% time penalty => high ridership Interviewees stated willingness to incur 50% or higher time penalty

47. steve_raney@cities21.org Survey Problem/solution pairsProblem/solution –#12 compatibility –Gap analysis Educational questions Discourage alternatives

48. steve_raney@cities21.org Pool gaps

49. steve_raney@cities21.org Combined Gaps

50. steve_raney@cities21.org Criticisms Need more participants, need computer workers Year 2008 assumptions Bias of survey team No control group Self selection Social desirability effect Inaccurate commute comparisons –Need more peak hour traffic adjustment, etc. –BART to Caltrain transfer was understated Details to add: –Climbing stairs, HomeSafe Some folks needed two alternatives Bike/ped: insufficient folks Undercount: Novelty, “bad” alternatives, over-thinking, tipping point

51. steve_raney@cities21.org Results: carpool time advantage

52. steve_raney@cities21.org Results: Biking Casual biker theory –Hard core: rain suit, bike in dark, sweat, expensive bike, bike next to fast cars, problem solver –Casual: the opposite. Bike on tree-lined residential streets. Use PRT to traverse unpleasant section & for mid-day trips Switched ½ to casual biking: –12 min, 4 mile SOV to 32 min bike + PRT Casual biker theory worked once. Both were “too far” away –& switched 25 min, 9 mi SOV to 55 min bike + PRT

53. steve_raney@cities21.org Why Stanford / SRP? South bay commute trip reduction leader Marguerite bus shuttle Workforce-oriented housing (natl policy innovator) Much less "auto-accommodating," parking is a hassle General Use Permit I & II: no new net trips Leading techno university: GCEP (Global Climate and Energy Project), micro sensors, B-school, etc. Entrepreneurial President Hennessey: MIPS (microprocessors) founder, major Google shareholder Leland Stanford Sr. – Continental RR – single biggest techno change. Created world's 7th largest economy SRP: historical template for sprawling office parks, parent of Silicon Valley HP & Engineering Dean Terman created cooperative competition atmosphere.

54. steve_raney@cities21.org Full Scale Model Fake guideway: lightweight, portable, shippable –Tent truss with ribs (& sock) on sonotube + base –Design challenge – tradeshow booth Visual impact: (squelches freeway overpass) –See visarc.com Scrounge machine shop time SideFX: advocacy, context study IDEO charrette.

55. steve_raney@cities21.org Full Scale Model – TRB ‘03

56. steve_raney@cities21.org U.C. Transportation Conference

57. steve_raney@cities21.org Eugene, OR

58. steve_raney@cities21.org @ Berkeley

59. steve_raney@cities21.org

60. 3D Animation Virtual city: 180 buildings, streets, trees, parking, sidewalks, 200 PRT vehicles + guideway $5/day animators in China vs. $40/hr in S.F. Full PRT simulation with empty vehicle mangement Real-time flythru: pick source, dest, then go –Optimized like a game, not a movie: VRML/DirectX Legwork: facades, aerials, topology, etc..

61. steve_raney@cities21.org Massive Five Project Thesis Effort –13 people spent 20+ hours –2,500 hours total –Consultants estimated $325K 5 multidisciplinary projects –8,200 geocoded addresses –Full scale PRT model –3D virtual city –13 one-hour interviews –  62 surveys, 40 minutes per Advisor: Cervero –Like Shaheen’s car sharing dissertation.

62. steve_raney@cities21.org TRASH SLIDES FOLLOW

63. steve_raney@cities21.org Advanced Corridor Sweep First Mile Line Haul 148 th & 156 th Last Mile Walk, bike, push scooter 22 lbs. $350 folding E-Scooter Lockers at bus stops Neighborhood jitney/taxi Kiss ‘n ride Park ‘n ride w/ space mgmt Segway w/ rain shield Bus: 15 min, guaranteed service - BRT coming to 156th Digital hitchiking at bus stops -Dynamic ridematch, NextRide (ETA & tracking), reputation rating, cellular mug shots, background checks, ArriveSafe -Bike racks on vehicles Walk, bike, scooter High Level Of Service Shuttle PRT On campus: carsharing w/ BMWs, hybrids, etc.; guaranteed ride home, etc.

64. steve_raney@cities21.org Q&A Menu JFK & Nixon re “can it be done?” Quantum Change Visual Impact Noise (picture of electric vehicle) Terrorism / Safety Economics PRT cost / transportation cost overruns Technology risk Big Sister / Privacy Smart parking What’s original New mobility priorities / survey validation Why Stanford? ULTRA, Morgantown

65. steve_raney@cities21.org Housing Moral Imperative Parents bought nice house in midtown in 1964 Adjusting for Consumer Price Index, house should now cost $139,400.

66. steve_raney@cities21.org PRT – Rapid Local Shuttle Feeder / Distributor Solves last mile problem. Alignment. CamSysAlignment High service level, no waiting, faster than a car. –Non-stop, 30 MPH, VideoVideo –Ride alone or with 1-2 people you choose –Convenient stops by buildings (not on street) –Comfortable, quiet, safe, no exhaust Services mid-day trips effectively Improves other modes

67. steve_raney@cities21.org TrakRide

68. steve_raney@cities21.org Planning Vision: Improved Edge City Improved suburban TOD. Typical, tiny 64 acre transit village increases to 1,280 acres. –Increase real-estate values –Reduce parking requirements  reclaim parking –Add new housing by jobs (duh!) –Unsubsidized PRT system –Will spread like the electric trolley in 1888 Reduce cost of car ownership Improve job access Augment lifeline transit network –(swing + graveyard shift) Increase child/senior mobility

69. steve_raney@cities21.org Suburban mode split Suburb CBD ¼ mi radius Fast commuter rail Transit share > SOV share Mixed activities Paid parking Home Office Slow, inconvenient transit 80% SOV, 14% carpool, 5% transit No activities Free parking Home Office Fast transit CBD-like Activities Station Feeder Scale!

70. steve_raney@cities21.org How PRT Works Stations on sidings / off-line Elevated 16’ Driverless Built like a roller coaster Thin columns, shallow footings.

71. steve_raney@cities21.org xMetholodogy: Interview findings Improved ridesharing matchmaking –Like anonymous web dating Increased “productive” time: –sleep is productive! Existing bus shuttles are loathed Interviews write the survey. Personal Support –Web chat “commute community” + knowledge base –Responsive customer support –Eliminate “nightmare” transit experiences. Reliable backup. Effective car loaners / ride home Short SOV commutes CAN be changed.

72. steve_raney@cities21.org xDemand Analysis: Attitudes Rich literature on attitudes CamSys: surveys to segment market (samTrans) –I would change my form of travel to get more productive time –I don’t mind traveling with people who are different than me –I don’t mind if the train or bus runs behind schedule –I need to have flexibility to make trips during the day –I would switch modes if it would help the environment Propose a door to door service that addresses these problems –First use interviews to define the service –Then use surveys to validate that the service will succeed Validate importance of specific features (gap analysis) Prof. Cervero: “sweat the details” –Cambridge Systematics agrees re “last mile problem” Commuter rail improvements less important

73. steve_raney@cities21.org xImplications Reducing Drive Alone share is hard –technically feasible, but politically challenging PRT shuttles are not solutions, need much more –New mobility, TMA, etc. Improve bus shuttles Improve ridesharing matchmaking Cellular geolocation apps –SW is easy, generating carrier profit is tricky Casual biker theory deserves more study –Theory seems correct, but too little data Try/promote remedies for bus motion sickness.

74. steve_raney@cities21.org 5 Demand Analysis Projects $20,000 out-of-pocket + volunteer labor Cervero: “pioneering demand methodology”

75. steve_raney@cities21.org PRT Rapid local shuttle Feeder / Distributor –5 mile alignment Faster than a car. Vehicle Storage

76. steve_raney@cities21.org Next Steps TrakRide SW development Advocacy –Stanford “no”  flanking maneuvers –John Hennessy, Daimler, Lockheed, HP, housing advocates, “willingness to franchise”, TMA, real-estate interests –Presentations, PR Target: wealthy tech innovators (who played with trains as kids) –Planning study federal earmark via political hierarchy Template for other cities –Lengthy effort –15 pg & 188 pg reports: http://www.cities21.org/silver_bullet.htm –? 400 person forecast.

77. steve_raney@cities21.org Bay Area Trends  Change 149% traffic congestion increase (2020) 40% population increase Latino 2010 majority (vs. Palo Alto 4.6%) Palo Alto Housing Element challenges Current smart growth paradigm  minimal impact.

78. steve_raney@cities21.org xMethodology: Interviews 13 one hour interviews: –What is your commute day like? Likes, dislikes Experience with commute alternatives –Respond to custom PRT / new mobility scenario Challenges –SOV folks don’t know problems with alternatives.

79. steve_raney@cities21.org Advanced Corridor Sweep First Mile Line Haul Last Mile Walk, bike, push scooter 22 lbs. $350 folding E-Scooter Lockers at bus stops Neighborhood jitney/taxi Kiss ‘n ride Park ‘n ride w/ space mgmt Segway w/ rain shield Bus: 15 min, guaranteed service Digital hitchiking at bus stops -Dynamic ridematch, NextRide (ETA & tracking), reputation rating, cellular mug shots, background checks, ArriveSafe -Bike racks on vehicles Walk, bike, scooter High Level of Service shuttle PRT On campus: carsharing, guaranteed ride home, etc.

80. steve_raney@cities21.org Employee Smart Jitney Arterial

81. steve_raney@cities21.org Halving Solo Driving Futuristic (none of this works yet!) 1) Big suburban office parks: 20K workers –PRT Shuttle + Digital Mobility 2) MS Arterial Sweep for short commutes –Casual carpooling, Electric bikes, Wireless Hope ideas spur variations & out of box ideas Steve Raney, Cities21.

82. steve_raney@cities21.org TDM Effectiveness - old TDM (transportation demand management) programs are crucial, yet few shift more than 15% net. EPA Best Workplaces for Commuters 41 cases: –40%: Georgia Power ’97 to ‘99, solo: 90% to 50%, 3K jobs. Via 1) $65/mo subsidy, 2) Every 10 min MARTA shuttle service. Fishy numbers. Shuttle served ~220 out of 3K jobs. Why discontinued? –25%: Paid parking / transportation allowance. Reductions: 16, 25, 28, 20, 16, 25, 34, 25%. –19%: Portland's CBD TMA: solo from 72% to 53%. Extensive pgm w/ cultural shift. Hartford Steam Boiler (CBD): 18% –15% Bishop Ranch, questionable control group.