1. Analyses from the Final Two MDR Flights & Hurricane Edouard Jason P. Dunion 1, Ryan Torn 2, Gary Wick 3, Robbie, Hood 3, Mike Black 4 1 University of Miami – NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division – University at Albany/SUNY 2University at Albany/SUNY 3 NOAA/UAS Program 4 NOAA/AOML/HRD 1 NASA HS3-HSRP Science Meeting, May 5 – 7, 2015 NASA Research Park, Moffett Field, CA

2. Global Hawk MDR Mission 22-23 September 2014: 40 GPS dropsondes

3. Global Hawk MDR Mission 28-29 September 2014: 64 GPS dropsondes

4. 33 % RH (80%); 36 kt (SE) 21% RH (80%) TINV: 2.9C 39 kt (ESE) Global Hawk MDR GPS Dropsondes (28-29 Sept)

5. 12-hr forecast WRF intialized 29 Sept 0600 UTC 500-850 hPa Qvapor Forecasts w-w/o MDR sondes Contours: control forecast values Dry SAL air >> shifted west Global Hawk MDR Mission 28-29 September 2014 36-hr forecast

6. 12-hr forecast36-hr forecast 850 hPa specific humidity RMS error (compared to AIRS) Forecasts: w-w/o dropsondes Ave over 5-deg bins Negative values (light blue-purple) >> forecast improved w/ MDR drops Global Hawk MDR Mission 28-29 September 2014

7. 2014 Hurricane Edouard WRF Ensemble Members (Track & Intensity) 24-hr 48-hr 72-hr 96-hr 120-hr Ensemble Members

8. 2014 Hurricane Edouard: Dropsonde Impact Mission: 13 Sep 12 UTC 48-hr Intensity Forecast: 15 Sep 12 UTC Intensity: % Error Reduction VWS: 19kt@199 deg

9. 2014 Hurricane Edouard WRF Ensemble Track Forecasts (initialized 13 Sep 1200 UTC) 10 Strongest members (0-72 hr) 10 Weakest members (0-72 hr) 24-hr 48-hr 72-hr 96-hr 120-hr Metric along-track dx (96 hr)

10. 2014 Hurricane Edouard: Dropsonde Impact Mission: 15 Sep 12 UTC 48-hr Along-Track Distance: 17 Sep 12 UTC GPS dropsonde impact Along-track distance (SW-NE)

11. Conclusions 1.MDR Missions 2 NOAA-led MDR missions conducted at the end of 2014 HS3 Strong SAL sampled in the eastern NATL GPS dropsondes >> assimilated into WRF Preliminary results >> shifted dry SAL air west (gradients, AEJ) Preliminary results >> improved 850 hPa moisture (AIRS) 2.Hurricane Edouard WRF (HWRF) Ensembles >>Track & Intensity adaptive sampling Intensity improvement targets: NW quadrant Track improvement targets: eastern semicircle 80 member HWRF ensemble >> 2015 NOAA SHOUT