2. Introduction to Statistics for the Social Sciences SBS200, COMM200, GEOG200, PA200, POL200, or SOC200 Lecture Section 001, Fall, 2014 Room 120 Integrated Learning Center (ILC) 10:00 - 10:50 Mondays, Wednesdays & Fridays. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oSQJP40PcGI

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4. Show of hands: How many people would like to add this class? Please fill this out

5. Everyone will want to be enrolled in one of the lab sessions No labs this week

6. Announcements Extra credit: design a creative way to teach some concept in the course. Computer animation Video animation Should be animated and include both 1. an explanation of the concept being taught and 2. an opportunity for the viewer to quiz themselves on the material

7. First homework due next Friday Please read Chapters 1 & 2 Answer some Chapter 2 questions Please note: The first two chapters of the text are online Please note: The specific questions can be found on our class “homework” website

9. Packet of Textbooks: 1. Integrative Statistics for the Social and Behavioral Sciences. Renee Ha and James Ha (2012). Copies of first 4 are available at the campus bookstore. Ha & Ha Book 2. 100 Questions (and Answers) About Research Methods. Neil J Salkind (2012). 3. Excel Statistics: A Quick Guide. Neil J Salkind (2011). 4.Study Guide for Ha & Ha Text. Ha, Ha & Maliken (2012). 5. The Psychology of Judgment and Decision Making. S Plous (1993). This one is available on website

10. Course website http://courses.eller.arizona.edu/mgmt/delaney/ Announcements Syllabus Exam grades (Link to D2L)

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12. Why study stats? Let’s start with four short demonstrations

13. Demonstration 1: A Memory Test Try to remember these word lists for a recall test Important: Try not to mix up the lists!!

14. Why does that work?

15. Count how many times the ball is passed by the team in the white shirts (not the black shirts – just the white) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ahg6qcgoay4&watch_response Demonstration 2: A Counting Test

17. Why does that work?

18. Demonstration 3: A Test of Disambiguation

19. Please close your eyes Right half of room

20. Really !

21. . This is a rat

22. Please close your eyes Left half of room

23. Really !

24. . This is a man

25. Please open your eyes Everyone

27. . What is this a picture of?

28. . This is a man This is a rat

29. . Expectations affect our perceptions of the world. Our knowledge affects our perceptions of the world. Everyday our “biases” affect how we see the world and make decisions. New knowledge can reshape what we see.

30. Demonstration 4: Another Test of Disambiguation New knowledge can reshape what we see.

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43. Demonstration 1: Our prior knowledge will influence our memories – inserting what was never there Demonstration 2: Our interests will influence what we see – making invisible what is right in front of us Demonstration 4: Our current environment will influence what we see – making images meaningful Demonstration 3: Our recent experiences will influence what we see – making one interpretation much more likely

44. Not just “tricks”, but demonstrations that show even the most basic interpretations of what we perceive and remember in the physical world is malleable and vulnerable. How we interpret social interactions and business problems are similarly vulnerable to bias. Careful measurement helps us account for these biases.

45. Every day we disambiguate what we see, remember, interpret and understand. Why study stats? Biases can impede or improve our decision making. (We want to minimize “bad biases” while maximizing “good biases” to our decision making) It is important to be aware of our own vulnerability to biases and illusions in social settings and in even the most basic daily experiences. Every time we see, or remember, or understand a problem we are vulnerable to biases.

46. * From Issues in Assessing Conceptual Understanding in Probability and Statistics By Clifford Konold, University of Massachusetts. Journal of Statistics Education v.3, n.1 (1995) Statistics and research methods allow us to try to “take into account” our natural tendencies for specific kinds of biases “When presented new information, we have no other option than to relate it to what we already know – there is no blank space in our minds within which new information can be stored so as not to “contaminate” it with existing information” - Clifford Konold, Scientific Reasoning Research Institute, University of Massachusetts*

47. Why study stats? POWER!! Be able to defend that your methods are better than others – lead to advancement

48. Why study stats? Cake: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TBjNzJEWpCICops: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5m_g72KaKg

49. Why study statistics? Literacy in language of statistics Study of stats provides opportunity for improving your computer literacy and management of databases and technical literacy Improvement of own critical thinking (own life-long cognitive development) Data management Too much??! - Stats can help you simplify Too little ??!? – Stats can help you fill in the blanks (smartly) Career Advancement (how helpful you are to others)

50. What is this course for? » Exploring the assumptions and principles underlying experimental methodologies and findings » Practice critical evaluation of data and claims both in the popular media and in scientific publications Introduction to Statistics in the Social Sciences » Practice completing calculations and applying the solutions to applied situations in daily life and in scientific inquiry » Improve skills for using data to inform our daily decisions and to avoid problems that arise from biases and illusions.

51. How will we do it? » Lectures and reading » In-class assignments Introduction to Statistics in the Social Sciences » Homework assignments » Laboratory research and projects

52. Grading » Four multiple choice exams - 400 points » Homework assignments - 20 points (no assignments will be dropped) Introduction to Statistics in the Social Sciences » Short writing assignments - 20 points (lowest 3 will be dropped) » Laboratory activities - 60 points