3 US Current Account Deficit US largest debtor country in history – outstanding debt around US$4 T What if foreign investors no longer want to accumulate US$ denominated assets? –Collapse in asset prices – spillover effects –Plausible scenario? –What would happen to value of Yuan, asset prices elsewhere?
4 US Current Account Deficit Options for reducing US current account deficit Reduction in US current account deficit requires reduction in aggregate current account surpluses of all other countries –No reason to expect “ equitable sharing” by all other countries Decline in value of US$ against most currencies –Improves price competitiveness of US-based companies –Canada and EU bearing disproportionate share of currency and trade adjustments Recession in US Protectionist trade policies in US More rapid rates of growth in all other countries
5 Foreign Exchange Markets Participants: –Commercial banks –Corporations –Non-bank financial institutions –Hedge funds –Foreign exchange dealers –Central banks Exchange rates – spot, forward –Rates move together Futures, options (call and put) Foreign exchange swaps – spot sale of a currency combined with forward repurchase of same currency
6 Foreign Exchange Markets Key financial centers: London, New York, Zurich, Tokyo –Frankfurt, Hong Kong, Singapore, Dubai, Mumbai and Shanghai Daily volume of transactions (April/13): US$5.3 T/day –1989: US 0.6 T/day –2000: US$1 T/day –41% in London; 19% in NY; 6% in Tokyo; 6% in Singapore –Currency trading in Canadian $: C$244 B/day US stock markets: about $150B/day US Treasury market: about $500B/day
7 Foreign Exchange Markets Each transaction involves two currencies, so market shares calculated out of 200% –US$: 86% (vehicle currency – widely used to denominate int’l contracts) Euro-$ trades: 27% Yen-$ trades: 13% Pound-$: 12% Emerging market currencies-$: 19% Emerging market currencies-Euro: 4%
8 Exchange Rate Markets Large Number of exchange rates Most important for Canada: E = $US/$Can [E*=1/E] As of 21/11/13: E = 0.950 [E*= 1.052] Low @ 01/21/02: 0.618 [E*= 1.618] High @ 11/07/07: 1.103 [E* = 0.907] Depreciation (appreciation): E ( E ) Exchange rates between Canadian dollar and other currencies – e.g. Euro, pound, yen, peso, rupee, ruble, HK dollar, Yuan, etc.
9 Foreign Exchange Markets Forward exchange rate: –Over-the-counter transactions between bank and customers whereby bank agrees to buy or sell specified amount of currency at an agreed rate (forward rate) for delivery at specified future date (as of 3/10/13) –1 month: 0.9681 –1 year: 0.9607 –5 years: 0.9314 –Spot rate: 0.9687 Futures: Transactions on an exchange –Closing dates for contracts, usually end of each quarter –Fixed value for each contract Options: Transactions on an exchange –Rights to buy/sell currencies at pre-specified exchange rate at future point in time (usually available with monthly closing dates)
Exchange Rates (C$) December 23, 2011 Australia $: 0.9653 Brazil Real: 1.822 China Renminbi: 6.207 India Rupee: 51.71 Indonesia Rupiah: 8,850 Israel Shekel: 3.709 Jamaica $: 84.46 Malaysia Ringgit: 3.093 Mexico Peso: 13.54 Philippines Peso: 42.61 Poland Zloty: 3.336 Russia Rouble: 30.55 Singapore $: 1.267 South Africa Rand: 7.981 S. Korea Won: 1,126 Taiwan $: 29.66 Thai Baht: 30.66 UAE Dirham: 3.598 10
Exchange Rates (C$) November 21, 2013 Australia $: 1.031 Brazil Real: 2.175 China Renminbi: 5.784 India Rupee: 59.56 Indonesia Rupiah: 11,111 Israel Shekel: 3.380 Jamaica $: 97.66 Malaysia Ringgit: 3.051 Mexico Peso: 12.34 Philippines Peso: 41.67 Poland Zloty: 2.941 Russia Rouble: 31.12 Singapore $: 1.187 South Africa Rand: 9.578 S. Korea Won: 1,007 Taiwan $: 28.09 Thai Baht: 30.21 UAE Dirham: 3.487 11
Exchange Rates Is the Canadian $ a petro currency? ELight crude Jan. 1/010.6683$26.80 Jan. 1/020.6258$19.84 Jan. 1/030.6350$31.20 Jan. 1/040.7752$32.52 Jan. 1/050.8162$43.45 Jan. 1/060.8642$61.04 Jan. 1/070.8584$61.05 Jan. 1/081.0074$95.98 Jan. 1/090.8260$44.60 Jan. 1/100.9555$79.50 Dec. 9/110.9816$99.41 Nov. 21/130.9502$94.72 12
14 Export Demand EX (exports of goods and services) –Determinants of D: real income, relative prices –Income of major trading partners – US in particular –US accounted for 72% of total exports of goods (55% of total services exports) ; 62% of total imports of goods (57% of total services imports) –Relative prices – prices of Canadian produced goods and services relative to price of competing foreign produced goods and services P C E/P US [E: exchange rate between C$ and US$ defined as US$/C$] –Non-price competitiveness of Canadian companies –Trade barriers – tariffs, transportation costs
15 Export Demand Exports of goods, Canada ($ B) 2007: $461.4 2008: $487.3 (5.6%) 2009: $367.4 (-24.6%) 2010: $403.1 (9.7%) 2011: $456.5 (13.2%) 2012: $547 (20.0%) Exports in 2011 still 6.3% below 2008 levels
16 Import Demand IM (imports of goods and services) –GDP in Canada –Relative prices – prices of Canadian produced goods and services relative to price of competing foreign produced goods and services –Non-price competitiveness of Canadian companies –Trade barriers
17 Revaluations of Exchange Rates and Impacts on Relative Prices Prices of comparable Canadian and US goods expressed in same currency –P[C]*E; P[US] – = P[C]*E/P[US] –Depreciation (appreciation): ( ) Example: Bombardier selling Q400 to Horizon Air Price set in $C or $US? Set in $US (US$ 32 M) – no foreign exchange risk for Horizon Air Delivery in 6 months –@ current E (0.9431): Bombardier will receive C$ 33.9 M –If C$ depreciates by 5% (E = 0.8959), Bombardier will receive C$ 35.7M –If C$ appreciates by 5% (E = 0.9903), Bombardier will receive C$ 32.3M –Implications for profit margins, pricing?