1. Russian Foreign Policy: drivers and perspectives SDU, 6 February 2015 Ambassador Thomas Winkler, Moscow

2.  Introduction  Russian foreign policy: the drivers and issues  The links:  The current economic situation  The internal political situation: consequences and scenarios  Foreign policy perspectives  Conclusions and Q&A Agenda

3. THE DRIVERS  The political interests of Russia:  Security, paranoia and empire building - OLD  Economic development - NEW  Regime-change, flower revolutions and ”no interference in internal affairs” – OLD AND NEW  The bi-polar world view with Russia as a global player - OLD  Respect…….- OLD  Ideology: Own values v. international values – OLD AND NEW Russian Foreign Policy: the drivers and the issues

4.  The need for an external enemy in time of crisis – SO OLD  The state media campaign, fighting for Russians everywhere - OLD AND NEW  Consistency and upgrading  Population convinced about ”the external enemy”  High level of endurance and patience  No changes in policy in ”near-abroad” or?  A partner globally in some areas,  An adversary globally in other areas  ALWAYS REMEMBER THE NUANCES – NOT ONE RUSSIAN POLICY THAT FITS ALL SITUATIONS

5. THE ISSUES  Crimea  Ukraine – and the Russian purposes  MEPP, Iran, disarmament, counter-terrorism, ISIL  Syria,  Human Rights  Denmark – Russia, including the Arctic BUT……

6.  Falling oilprices in an economy based on exporting raw materials – the ”curse” of the Russian economy  A very weak rouble, capital flight  Sanctions and need for refinancing of debt  Own ”sanctions  Rising inflation, stop for investments  Deepening financial crisis around the corner?  Closures, unemployment – unrest?  Challeging the budget and the reserves  Choise: centralisation or reforms? The current economic situation

7.  Unrest?  From the middle class?  From others?  Locally?  Putin clear 18.12.: social promises stand, no (futher) centralisation, no currency control, more economic freedom  But: does he mean it – and what does ”the others” say?  Internal politics The internal political consequenses

8.  Alternatives:  Internally in the government – more realism, defense expenses  More positive development – or too late?  Or a new 1964?  centralisation, currency control, more negative development  The answer?  The internal power struggle: – hard externally, reforms internally?  Sanctions – internal og eksternal – per summer 2015: more, less or none?

9.  SE Ukraine – stabilisation, escalation or more muddling through?  Crimea – not up for discussion  Relationship to the EU:  More classical bilateralisation – the weaker links  Relationship with Denmark – the history and the balances  Relationship with the USA – no improvements in sight  ”Turning East” – reality or illusion?  Euroasiatic Economic – same – and our new ”friends” Foreign Policy Consequences

10.  Decisive factors  Internal politics, economy  The endurance of the Russian population  Will other states stand up?  Ukraine in five years?  Pick and choose  Russia in 2040? The importance of P2P Conclusion