1. Virginia Sentencing Guidelines Preliminary FY2013 Report June 10, 2013

2. FY 2013 - Cases Coded and Keyed 2 JAN 607 FEB 11 MAR 11 APR 44 MAY 00 JUN 00 JUL1886 AUG2114 SEP1952 OCT2114 NOV1765 DEC1397 TOTAL1122861311841* *11,553 certified for compliance analysis

3. Preliminary FY2013 Report Guideline Worksheets Keyed as of 05/31/2013 (n=11,553) 3

4. Preliminary FY2013 Report: General Compliance

5. Preliminary FY2013 Report Judicial Agreement with Guideline Recommendations General Compliance: The degree to which judges agree with the overall guidelines recommendation. 5 N=11,553

6. Preliminary FY2013 Report Judicial Agreement with Type of Recommended Disposition ACTUAL DISPOSITION Dispositional Compliance: The degree to which judges agree with the type of sanction recommended. 6 N=11,553

7. Preliminary FY2013 Report Judicial Agreement with Sentence Length Durational Compliance: The degree to which judges agree with the sentence length in cases in which defendants are recommended for jail/prison and receive at least one day incarceration. Median 9 months below midpoint 7 N=7,856

8. Preliminary FY2013 Report: Departure Reasons

9. Aggravation (n=1130) Plea agreement 292 (18%**) Flagrancy of offense/facts of case 156 (14%**) Severity/type of prior record141 (13%**) Multiple counts involved in event 70 (6%**) Poor rehabilitation potential 67 (6%**) SG Recommendation too low 58 (5%**) Recommendation of jury 54 (5%**) Sentenced to alternative 49 (4%**) n=264 (23%) missing a departure reason Mitigation (n=1347) Plea agreement490 (37%*) Sentenced to alternative 118 (9%*) Judicial discretion 107 (8%*) Cooperated with Authorities107 (8%*) Facts of the case 91 (7%*) Recommendation of CA 89 (7%*) Court Proceeding: Serve sentence in other case 81 (6%*) No or limited prior record 61 (3%*) n=304 (23%) missing a departure reason Preliminary FY2013 Report Most Frequently Cited Departure Reasons * Of mitigating cases requiring departure reason** Of aggravating cases requiring departure reasons 9

10. Preliminary FY2013 Report: Compliance by Circuit

11. Circuit NameCircuitComplianceMitigationAggravationNumber of Cases Chesapeake1 79.9%8.7%11.3%538 Virginia Beach2 83.8%9.6%6.5%612 Portsmouth3 71.3%16.2%12.5%272 Norfolk4 80.1%13.1%6.8%443 Suffolk Area5 83.5%7.3%9.2%260 Sussex Area6 82.4%10.0%7.6%170 Newport News7 79.4%11.7%8.9%316 Hampton8 76.1%18.3%5.5%218 Williamsburg Area9 79.1%8.0%12.9%287 South Boston Area10 76.8%12.8%10.4%289 Petersburg Area11 78.9%13.5%7.6%171 Chesterfield Area12 80.5%11.1%8.4%523 Richmond City13 71.4%21.4%7.2%669 Henrico14 74.7%12.9%12.4%427 Fredericksburg Area15 74.9%8.7%16.4%677 Charlottesville Area16 72.7%15.0%12.2%319 Arlington Area17 72.5%12.4%15.2%178 Alexandria18 79.6%14.5%5.9%152 Fairfax19 77.7%12.2%10.1%565 Loudoun Area20 88.4%5.5%6.1%310 Martinsville Area21 78.4%16.8%4.8%167 Danville Area22 73.9%6.9%19.2%276 Roanoke Area23 75.0%15.0%10.0%448 Lynchburg Area24 77.5%14.6%7.9%467 Staunton Area25 76.0%15.7%8.3%363 Harrisonburg Area26 81.8%9.8%8.4%716 Radford Area27 87.5%6.3% 559 Bristol Area28 85.6%7.9%6.5%278 Buchanan Area29 71.1%10.5%18.4%381 Lee Area30 73.4%11.8%14.8%169 Prince William Area31 86.9%6.9%6.3%320 Preliminary FY2013 Most cases received: -Circuit 26 (Harrisonburg Area) -Circuit 15 (Fredericksburg Area) -Circuit 13 (Richmond) 11

12. Preliminary FY2013 Most cases received: -Circuit 15 (Fredericksburg Area) -Circuit 26 (Harrisonburg Area) -Circuit 13 (Richmond) Highest compliance: -Circuit 20 (Loudoun Area) 88.4% -Circuit 27 (Radford Area) 87.5% Lowest compliance: -Circuit 29 (Buchanan Area) 71.1% Circuit 3 (Portsmouth) 71.3% Circuit 13 (Richmond) 71.4% 12 Circuit NameCircuitComplianceMitigationAggravationNumber of Cases Chesapeake1 79.9%8.7%11.3%538 Virginia Beach2 83.8%9.6%6.5%612 Portsmouth3 71.3%16.2%12.5%272 Norfolk4 80.1%13.1%6.8%443 Suffolk Area5 83.5%7.3%9.2%260 Sussex Area6 82.4%10.0%7.6%170 Newport News7 79.4%11.7%8.9%316 Hampton8 76.1%18.3%5.5%218 Williamsburg Area9 79.1%8.0%12.9%287 South Boston Area10 76.8%12.8%10.4%289 Petersburg Area11 78.9%13.5%7.6%171 Chesterfield Area12 80.5%11.1%8.4%523 Richmond City13 71.4%21.4%7.2%669 Henrico14 74.7%12.9%12.4%427 Fredericksburg Area15 74.9%8.7%16.4%677 Charlottesville Area16 72.7%15.0%12.2%319 Arlington Area17 72.5%12.4%15.2%178 Alexandria18 79.6%14.5%5.9%152 Fairfax19 77.7%12.2%10.1%565 Loudoun Area20 88.4%5.5%6.1%310 Martinsville Area21 78.4%16.8%4.8%167 Danville Area22 73.9%6.9%19.2%276 Roanoke Area23 75.0%15.0%10.0%448 Lynchburg Area24 77.5%14.6%7.9%467 Staunton Area25 76.0%15.7%8.3%363 Harrisonburg Area26 81.8%9.8%8.4%716 Radford Area27 87.5%6.3% 559 Bristol Area28 85.6%7.9%6.5%278 Buchanan Area29 71.1%10.5%18.4%381 Lee Area30 73.4%11.8%14.8%169 Prince William Area31 86.9%6.9%6.3%320

13. Circuit NameCircuitComplianceMitigationAggravationNumber of Cases Chesapeake1 79.9%8.7%11.3%538 Virginia Beach2 83.8%9.6%6.5%612 Portsmouth3 71.3%16.2%12.5%272 Norfolk4 80.1%13.1%6.8%443 Suffolk Area5 83.5%7.3%9.2%260 Sussex Area6 82.4%10.0%7.6%170 Newport News7 79.4%11.7%8.9%316 Hampton8 76.1%18.3%5.5%218 Williamsburg Area9 79.1%8.0%12.9%287 South Boston Area10 76.8%12.8%10.4%289 Petersburg Area11 78.9%13.5%7.6%171 Chesterfield Area12 80.5%11.1%8.4%523 Richmond City13 71.4%21.4%7.2%669 Henrico14 74.7%12.9%12.4%427 Fredericksburg Area15 74.9%8.7%16.4%677 Charlottesville Area16 72.7%15.0%12.2%319 Arlington Area17 72.5%12.4%15.2%178 Alexandria18 79.6%14.5%5.9%152 Fairfax19 77.7%12.2%10.1%565 Loudoun Area20 88.4%5.5%6.1%310 Martinsville Area21 78.4%16.8%4.8%167 Danville Area22 73.9%6.9%19.2%276 Roanoke Area23 75.0%15.0%10.0%448 Lynchburg Area24 77.5%14.6%7.9%467 Staunton Area25 76.0%15.7%8.3%363 Harrisonburg Area26 81.8%9.8%8.4%716 Radford Area27 87.5%6.3% 559 Bristol Area28 85.6%7.9%6.5%278 Buchanan Area29 71.1%10.5%18.4%381 Lee Area30 73.4%11.8%14.8%169 Prince William Area31 86.9%6.9%6.3%320 13 Preliminary FY2013 Most cases received: -Circuit 15 (Fredericksburg Area) -Circuit 26 (Harrisonburg Area) -Circuit 13 (Richmond) Highest compliance: -Circuit 20 (Loudoun Area) 88.4% -Circuit 27 (Radford Area) 87.5% Lowest compliance: -Circuit 29 (Buchanan Area) 71.1% Circuit 3 (Portsmouth) 71.3% Circuit 13 (Richmond) 71.4% Highest aggravation: -Circuit 22 (Danville Area) 19.2% Highest mitigation: -Circuit 13 (Richmond City) 21.4%

14. Preliminary FY2013 Report: Compliance by Offense Type

15. Preliminary FY2013 Report Compliance by Type of Offense 15 1,082 2,774 718 3,115 818 238 402 268 686 117 276 567 368 75 49

16. Preliminary FY2013 Report Compliance by Type of Offense 16 Highest Mitigation Rates Robbery (22.3%)n=82  Most frequent departure reasons:  Plea agreement  Cooperation with authorities  CA/Joint recommendation Kidnapping (20.4%)n=10  Most frequent departure reasons:  Plea agreement  Offender’s health  CA/Joint recommendation Highest Aggravation Rate Murder (21.4%)n=11  Most frequent departure reasons:  Flagrancy of the offense  Vulnerability of victim  Jury recommendation Rape (20.0%)n=13  Most frequent departure reasons:  Flagrancy of the offense  Vulnerability of victim  Recommendation of jury Highest Mitigation Rates Robbery (22.3%)n=82  Most frequent departure reasons:  Plea agreement  Cooperation with authorities  CA/Joint recommendation Kidnapping (20.4%)n=10  Most frequent departure reasons:  Plea agreement  Offender’s health  CA/Joint recommendation Highest Aggravation Rate Murder (21.4%)n=11  Most frequent departure reasons:  Flagrancy of the offense  Vulnerability of victim  Jury recommendation Rape (20.0%)n=13  Most frequent departure reasons:  Flagrancy of the offense  Vulnerability of victim  Recommendation of jury

17. Preliminary FY2013 Report: Nonviolent Offender Risk Assessment

18. Preliminary FY2013 Report Nonviolent Risk Assessment Risk assessment applies in drug, fraud, & larceny cases Offender must meet eligibility criteria −Recommended for incarceration −No current or violent felony conviction −Did not distribute an ounce or more of cocaine −Not convicted of crime requiring mandatory minimum term of incarceration Purpose: To recommend alternative sanctions for offenders who are statistically less likely to recidivate Type of alternative at discretion of judge 18

19. Nonviolent Offender Risk Assessment 19

20. 10 7 14 20

21. Preliminary FY2013 Report Nonviolent Offenders Eligible for Risk Assessment by Type of Offense 21 7,689 Drug, Fraud & Larceny Cases - 4,601 Excluded: Ineligible, Errors, 1260 Missing 3,088 Analyzed

22. Preliminary FY2013 Nonviolent Offenders Eligible for Risk Assessment Fraud Larceny All Risk Cases8% Drug7% 23% 11% 37% 28% 62% 75% 51% 56% 7% 6% 4% 9% 3,088 1,141 496 1,451 OffenseMitigation Compliance Aggravation Number of Cases AlternativeTraditional 85% 86% 88% 84% 22

23. Recommended and Received an Alternative22.8%n= 703 Recommended and Incarcerated30.4%n= 937 Not Recommended and Received Alternative12.4%n= 382 Not Recommended and Incarcerated34.5%n= 1,065 Preliminary FY2013 Nonviolent Offenders Eligible for Risk Assessment 23

24. Preliminary FY2013 Report Most Frequent Sanctions Imposed in Risk Assessment Cases Recommended for and Receiving Alternative Sanctions Median 7 months 24

25. Preliminary FY2013 Report: Sex Offender Risk Assessment

26. SEX OFFENDER RISK ASSESSMENT

27. Preliminary FY2013 Report Sex Offender Risk Assessment Risk assessment incorporated into the guidelines for Rape & Other Sexual Assault Purpose: To extend the upper end of the guidelines recommendation for sex offenders who are statistically more likely to recidivate Enhancements Level 1 = 300% Increase in upper end of guidelines range Level 2 = 100% Increase in upper end of guidelines range Level 3 = 50% Increase in upper end of guidelines range 27

28. Level 3 50% Level 2 100% Level 1 300%

29. Preliminary FY2013 Report Sex Offender Risk Assessment Outcomes * Excludes Other Sexual Assault cases missing risk assessment and cases in which risk assessment is not applicable (e.g., child pornography and child solicitation offenses) ** Excludes Rape cases missing risk assessment 29

30. Preliminary FY2013 Report Compliance Rates by Risk Level for Rape Offenders (n=74*) Very High Risk High Risk Moderate Risk 0% 27% 0% No Level20% 81% 53% 100% 51% 13% 7% 0% --- 6% 13% 0% 29% 16 15 2 41 Risk LevelMitigation Compliance Aggravation Number of Cases TraditionalAdjusted 94% 60% 100% 30 51%

31. Other Preliminary FY2013 Report Compliance Rates by Risk Level for Other Sexual Assault Offenders (n=173*) Very High Risk High Risk Moderate Risk7% 11% 0% No Level11% 74% 56% 0% 59% 12% 33% 0% --- 7% 0% 30% 42 18 0 113 Risk Level Mitigation Compliance Aggravation Number of Cases Traditional Adjusted 86% 89% 0% * Excludes Other Sexual Assault cases missing risk assessment and cases in which risk assessment is not applicable (e.g., child pornography and child solicitation offenses) 31 59%

32. Preliminary FY2013 Report: Jury Sentencing

33. Parole System FY1986 – Preliminary FY2013 Percentage of Guidelines Cases Adjudicated by Jury Trials Parole System versus Truth-in-Sentencing System Truth-in-Sentencing 33 Fiscal Year

34. Preliminary FY2013 Report Jury Recommendation vs. Non-Jury Sentencing Median departure 2 years and 9 months above high end of guidelines range 34

35. Preliminary FY2013 Report: Additions/Changes to the Guidelines Effective July 1, 2013 35

36. 36 New Guidelines Offenses (FY2013)ComplianceMitigationAggravation § 18.2-51.4(A): DWI results in permanent impairment40.0% (n=2)20.0% (n=1)40.0% (n=2) § 18.2-272(A): Third offense in 10 years after forfeiture of license69.2% (n=9)23.1% (n=3)7.7% (n=1) § 18.2-248(C): Third or subsequent distribution of Schedule I/II drug70.0% (n=21)10.0% (n=3)20.0% (n=6) § 18.2-248(C1): Manufacture methamphetamines82.8% (n=24)13.8% (n=4)3.4% (n=1) Preliminary FY2013 Report Additions/Changes to the Guidelines Effective July 1, 2013

37. Virginia Sentencing Guidelines Preliminary FY2013 Report June 10, 2013

38. Sentencing Revocation Reports & Probation Violation Guidelines (FY2012)

39. Sentencing Revocation Report is completed for all cases involving felony violations of: Probation Post-release terms administered by the court Good behavior Suspended sentence Community-based programs

40. New Law Violation: Condition 1 Technical Violations: Conditions 2 – 11 & Special Conditions

41. 4 Sentencing Revocation Reports Received for Technical and New Law Violations FY1998 - FY2012 (Preliminary) Note: FY12 includes cases received by September 1, 2012 53% 47%

42. Sentencing Revocation Reports Received by Judicial Circuit FY2012 (Preliminary) Highest Number Received Circuit 4 - Norfolk Circuit 29 - Buchanan Area Circuit 15 – Fredericksburg Area CircuitAreaNumber 1Chesapeake486 2Virginia Beach228 3Portsmouth257 4Norfolk887 5Suffolk Area334 6Sussex Area69 7Newport News265 8Hampton346 9Williamsburg Area291 10South Boston Area216 11Petersburg Area96 12Chesterfield Area349 13Richmond City318 14Henrico431 15Fredericksburg Area656 16Charlottesville Area268 17Arlington126 18Alexandria197 19Fairfax567 20Loudoun Area219 21Martinsville Area159 22Danville Area479 23Roanoke Area332 24Lynchburg Area401 25Staunton Area321 26Harrisonburg Area550 27Radford Area566 28Bristol Area388 29Buchanan Area728 30Lee Area131 31Prince William Area193 Total10,854* * Includes all forms received, including those found not in violation or missing information

43. Sentencing Revocation Reports Received Dispositions for Technical and New Law Violations FY2012 (Preliminary) Actual Disposition Received ProbationJail = 1yr. NEW LAW VIOLATOR1124 (21%)2348 (43%)1937 (36%) TECHNICAL VIOLATOR1155 (24%)2521 (52%)1176 (24%) TOTAL * 2279 (22%)4869 (48%)3113 (30%) *The disposition was missing in 249 cases 6

44. 7 Sentencing Revocation Reports Received New Law Violations by Type of New Crime FY2012 (Preliminary) Cases = 5,536 The disposition was missing in 127 cases

45. 8 VCC IDFrequencyPercent Missing 5129.2 A11.0 A23.1 A34.1 A53.1 A67.1 A916.3 C41.0 C63.1 C916.3 F211.2 F351.9 F442.8 F54918.9 F680214.5 F9108019.5 I923.4 M1196235.4 M2651.2 M313.2 M41572.8 M91502.7 S91232.2 Total5536100.0 Sentencing Revocation Reports Received New Law Violations by Type of New Crime FY2012 (Preliminary) Felonies Misdemeanors Traffic Infractions Type Not Clear

46. 9 Sentencing Revocation Reports Received by Type of Violation and Sanction Received FY2012 (Preliminary) Probation Jail Prison Median 6 mos. Median 5 mos. Median 1.75 yrs. Median 1.7 yrs. Median 2.0 yrs.

47. Sentencing Revocation Reports 10,854 Technical Violations 4,973 Included in Probation Violation Guidelines Compliance Analysis 4,323 Not Included in Probation Violation Guidelines Compliance Analysis * 650 New Crime Violations 5,536 10 * Cases are not included in compliance analysis if the guidelines do not apply (the case involves a parole-eligible offense, first offender violation, misdemeanor original offense, or the offender was not on supervised probation), if the guidelines forms were incomplete, or if outdated forms were prepared. Sentencing Revocation Reports Received FY2012 (Preliminary) Violator Type Unknown 167 Found Not in Violation 178

48. Probation Violation Guidelines Cases – “Technicals” by Type of Original Offense FY2012 (Preliminary) 11

49. 12 Types of Violations Cited in Probation Violation Guidelines Cases – “Technicals” FY2012 (Preliminary) Percentages do not total 100% because there may be multiple violations cited for each defendant Financial 48% Substance abuse treatment 23% Alternative programs 9% Sex offender restrictions 5%

50. FY2008-2012 WorksheetFY2006-FY2007 Worksheet New factors were added Existing factors were adjusted Point values were increased

51. 14 N = 4,643N = 5,584N = 4,860N = 5,067N = 4,216 Probation Violation Guidelines – “Technicals” Compliance and Direction of Departures FY2005 – FY2012 (Preliminary) N = 4,705N = 4,323

52. RECOMMENDED DISPOSITION ACTUAL DISPOSITION Probation Jail up to 12 Months Prison 1 Year or More Probation 45.0%42.7%12.3% Jail up to 12 Months 17.5%66.9%15.7% Prison 1 Year or More 18.2%36.1%45.7% 52 Probation Violation Guidelines Dispositional Compliance and Direction of Departures FY2012 (Preliminary)

53. RECOMMENDED DISPOSITION ACTUAL DISPOSITION Probation Jail up to 12 Months Prison 1 Year or More Probation 45.0%42.7%12.3% Jail up to 12 Months 17.5%66.9%15.7% Prison 1 Year or More 18.2%36.1%45.7% 0 Probation Violation Guidelines Dispositional Compliance and Direction of Departures FY2012 (Preliminary) Median Jail Sentence 5.2 months Median Prison Sentence 1.5 years

54. Probation Violation Guidelines Most Frequently Cited Departure Reasons FY2012 (Preliminary) Mitigation (25.1%) Most frequently cited: No Reason (48.7%) Sentenced to Alternative (7.1%) Judicial Discretion (6.0%) Recommendation of CA (4.3%) Aggravation (24.1%) Most frequently cited: No Reason (45.2%) 2 nd or subsequent revocation (8.2%) Poor rehabilitation potential (4.8%) Fail to follow instructions (4.8%) 15

55. Sentencing Revocation Reports & Probation Violation Guidelines (FY2012)