1. 1 Changing Sources of Household Income and Poverty Reduction in Rural Asia, 1985-2004 Keijiro Otsuka Jonna P. Estudillo FASID (Foundation for Advanced Studies on International Development) Tokyo, Japan

2. 2 Purposes of the study  To describe the changing sources of household income across high-potential and marginal areas in rural Asia  To identify the major factors affecting the household income over time  To explore the long-term process of poverty reduction with a special focus on the role of and investment in human capital

3. 3 A synthesis of papers 1.On the determinants of changing household income, appeared in special issue of Agricultural Economics (November 2006) 2.On the determinants of schooling investment and occupational choice, to be presented in the IRRI Workshop, “Rural Poverty and Income Dynamics in Asia and Africa,” on September 3-4, 2007.

4. 4 Studies of panel data from rural Asia Philippines: 447 households in two villages each in Central Luzon and Panay Island in 1985, 1989, 2002, and 2004 (farmer and landless households) Thailand: 295 households in three villages each in Central Plain and North Eastern Provinces in 1987/88 and 2004 (farmer households only in 1987/88) Bangladesh: 1,239 households in 1988, 1,872 households in 2000, and 1,927 households in 2004 from all over the country (farmer and landless households) Tamil Nadu (India): 10 households for each of the 40 villages in 1971 to 1980 and 10 households for each of the 60 villages from 1981 to 2003 (farmer households only)

5. 5 Unfavorable Asian scenario (1)High population pressure on closed land frontier (2)Decline in farm size and increased incidence of landlessness (3)Limited and declining labor employment opportunities in agriculture because of stagnant yield, declining rice prices, and acceleration in the use of labor-saving technologies

6. 6 Table 1 Farm size and landlessness

7. 7 “Unexpected” outcome Rapid and significant reduction in rural poverty, more importantly in areas with unfavorable production environment and among the landless households

8. 8 Table 2 Composition of household income and poverty incidence

9. 9 Major findings from Table 2 (1)Share of agricultural wage income has been low and declining (2)Share of rice production income has been declining (3)Share of non-rice farm income has risen in Bangladesh and marginal areas in Tamil Nadu (India) (4)Substantial rise in the share of non-farm income in all study sites in the 4 countries except in the high potential areas in Tamil Nadu (India) (5)Reduction in poverty in all study sites particularly in marginal areas (6)Overall, the shift of household income away from farm to non- farm sources is associated with a reduction in poverty incidence

10. 10 A Summary (1)Increased income from rural non-farm and urban labor markets is the most decisive factor directly responsible for the decline in poverty (2)The more educated children are those who earned higher non-farm income (3)Rise in income associated with the Green Revolution has enabled the rural households to invest in schooling of children

11. 11 Agricultural development Development of the nonfarm sector Nonfarm income Farm income Human capital Future issues Figure 1. A Schematic View of Poverty Reduction in Rural Asia

12. 12 Concluding Remarks (1)Households are able to move out of poverty amidst the increasing scarcity of farmland by diversifying their income away from rice to non-rice crops, livestock, and non-farm sources. (2)Increased farm income brought about by the Green Revolution facilitated investments in children’s schooling. (3)It is imperative to develop agriculture in order to stimulate investments in schooling of children and to develop the non-farm sectors so as to provide ample employment opportunities for the rural labor force.