1. David G. Casagrande Insecurity of Climate Change and Residential Landscaping in the Phoenix Oasis Department of Sociology & Anthropology

2. Overview ► Security = economic and political ► Growing population ► Constant or decreasing water supply ► Research identified three important processes that decrease security: 1.cognitive human/desert dichotomy 2.oasis mentality as cognitive compromise 3.poor sense of community ( “ sense of place ” )

3. Population Growth in Phoenix

4. Three Water Sources 1. Salt River system 2. Colorado River System 3. Ground Water Currently in 8 th year of drought conditions ► Total Salt River system is at 63% of capacity (as of March 23, 2007; source: Salt River Project) ► Water managers consider Lake Powell a primary indicator for the Colorado system ► Lake Powell is at 47 % of capacity (as of March 5, 2007; source: US DOI Bureau of Reclamation) ► Both rely heavily on snow melt

5. Why focus on landscaping behavior? ► Expression of identity and personal security ► Represents a critical interface between public and policy ► Per capita use (gallons per day): US average 100 US average 100 Phoenix 226 Phoenix 226 Paradise Valley 400 Paradise Valley 400 ► In Phoenix, 40 % of all water used is for residential landscaping “Per capita reduction in water use requires a change in lifestyle expectations…away from the ‘oasis’ mentality” Phoenix water manager

6. Why focus on landscaping behavior? ► current per capita water use in Phoenix is 226 gallons per day ► residential per capita use must be reduced to 90 gallons per day by 2040 ► current optimal technologies could reduce indoor per capita use to 40 gallons per day ► leaving 50 gallons available for outdoor use ► but note some communities currently use 400 ► this assumes non-residential demand is constant ► AND supply remains constant

7. Economic Security ► Most businesses in metro Phoenix could be located anywhere ► Residents think of Phoenix as a place to “ park capital ” “ We have plenty of water, just too many people. I don ’ t know how much I ’ m willing to conserve before we ’ ll leave. We ’ re thinking of going back to California. ” (Interview participant) “ We have plenty of water, just too many people. I don ’ t know how much I ’ m willing to conserve before we ’ ll leave. We ’ re thinking of going back to California. ” (Interview participant) ► 12% of jobs are in construction or real estate ► Property values and regional economy may be vulnerable ► Consider Detroit (and other “ rust belt ” cities)

8. Economic Security ► “ The West ’ s snow resources are already declining as the climate warms. ” (Mote et al 2005) ► Previous residential efficiency goals insufficient ► Could we create a “ dust belt ” similar to the “ rust belt ”

9. Other Complicating Factors ► microclimate and utility costs ► heat islands ► dissatisfaction with growth ► air quality ► traffic ► crime

10. Research ► Goal: identify perceptions contributing to landscaping behavior ► Phoenix Area Social Survey (Harlan et al.) ► Detailed follow-up survey with 55 participants ► Thematic content analysis of in-depth interviews with 55 participants

11. Landscape Types Native Desert Xeriscape (dry) Oasis (mixed) Mesic (Lush)

12. Past research suggested a paradox: ► Arizona natives have lowest preference for desert landscape and the highest preference for mesic landscape (Martin, Peterson, & Stabler, 2002) ► In our survey 67% of long-term residents agreed with the statement “ the desert is beautiful ” ► Did our respondents prefer dry landscapes for their yards? Human / Desert Dichotomy

14. “ I ’ ve lived here my whole life. I love the desert…what they choose for desert landscaping is a different story from going out into the real desert. ” “ I strongly agree [desert is beautiful] if it is out in its natural environment. ” “ I think the desert belongs in the desert. ” “ I have lived in Arizona all my life. I love the desert in its place. ”

15. Family Identity and Lawns

16. ► “ That [mesic] to me looks ideal. It looks like a family could live there. ” ► “ If it ’ s all desert landscaping, the kids can ’ t go out and play, especially if there ’ s no convenient areas where they can play, or parks nearby. ” ► “ Cactuses… I think about children. The cactuses are very unsafe…I have children and then there ’ s children in the neighborhood that could get hurt. ”

17. Oasis Mentality "The mind-set in Phoenix is that we live in an oasis... “ (Conservation coordinator, Phoenix Department of Water Services) “ I came to visit when I was 16. I took one look at the palm trees and I said ‘ This is like and oasis. This is where I have to live! ’” (interview participant) “ I love the desert. Where else can you live in a place with no humidity and be only five minutes from the [golf] course. ” (interview participant)

18. Environmental Values

20. Oasis as a Compromise ‘ Compromise ’ emerges as a theme within oasis- like landscape choices ► “ I think that ’ s [mesic] real dumb for Arizona, although I do like it best. But I ’ m going to choose 3 [oasis]. ” ► “ …not too much grass, especially considering we live in a desert, water conservation is a very big thing, but there is still some grass, and I like the shade of trees. It also helps it save more energy as far as electric bills ”

21. Oasis as a compromise ► fits well with history of marketing Phoenix as an oasis in the desert (still continues)

22. Oasis as a compromise ► Oasis mentality may also result from conflicting messages

23. Conservation e.g., Phoenix Dept. of Water Resources

24. Economic Development “ The desert is a myth! ” Arizona Office of Tourism

25. Solutions? ► oasis landscaping is insufficient for required per capita water use reduction goals Policy Recommendations: ► water pricing = political suicide ► emphasize economic implications in addition to environmental responsibility ► coordinate messages between public agencies ► emphasize xeriscaping, not necessarily desert landscaping

26. Thanks to: Collaborators at Arizona State University: ► Scott Yabiku ► Liz Farley-Metzger ► Sharon Harlan Funded by the National Science Foundation Long-Term Ecological Research Program