1. Geospatial Interpolation of Remotely Sensed Observations in the Chesapeake Bay: an Ecological Forecasting Application Erin Urquhart 1, Rebecca Murphy 1,Matt Hoffman 2, Ben Zaitchik 1, 1 Johns Hopkins University, 2 Rochester Institute of Technology

2. Vibrio in the Chesapeake Bay * V. cholerae * V. vulnificus * V. parahaemolyticus Urquhart et al. AGU Fall Meeting 2012 December 3, 2012 Satellite Ocean and Coastal Applications- Current and Future II

3. z(V.c)= -1.1939 + (0.1233 * Temp) – (0.1997 * Saln) – (0.0324 * (Temp * Saln) Remote Sensing of Vibrio in the Chesapeake Bay Urquhart et al. AGU Fall Meeting 2012 December 3, 2012 Satellite Ocean and Coastal Applications- Current and Future II Urquhart et al., (2012) RSE

4. Percent Satellite Coverage by Month Urquhart et al. AGU Fall Meeting 2012 December 3, 2012 Satellite Ocean and Coastal Applications- Current and Future II

5. Urquhart et al. AGU Fall Meeting 2012 December 3, 2012 Satellite Ocean and Coastal Applications- Current and Future II

6. Geostatistical Spatial Interpolation: Kriging What is Kriging? Determine data dependency Semivariogram – Spatial autocorrelation – Model fitting Predictions Ordinary Kriging – Y(s) = β 0 + ε(s) – Constant mean is unknown Universal Kriging – Y(s) = β 0 +β 1 X 1 (s) + … + β p X p (s) + ε(s) – Trend in the data Urquhart et al. AGU Fall Meeting 2012 December 3, 2012 Satellite Ocean and Coastal Applications- Current and Future II

7. Urquhart et al. AGU Fall Meeting 2012 December 3, 2012 Satellite Ocean and Coastal Applications- Current and Future II

8. Urquhart et al. AGU Fall Meeting 2012 December 3, 2012 Satellite Ocean and Coastal Applications- Current and Future II

9. Urquhart et al. AGU Fall Meeting 2012 December 3, 2012 Satellite Ocean and Coastal Applications- Current and Future II

10. EOF Analysis ParameterMethod1 st Mode (%)2 nd Mode (%)Total (%) Salinity OK UK OK UK Temperature 79 69 80 93 13 21 14 5 92 90 94 98 Urquhart et al. AGU Fall Meeting 2012 December 3, 2012 Satellite Ocean and Coastal Applications- Current and Future II

11. Comparison of Interpolated and ChesROMS Parameter Output ParameterMethodMEMAERMSE Salinity UK ROMS UK ROMS Temperature 0.61 -0.52 0.28 -0.76 0.94 0.99 0.98 R2R2 (psu) ( o C) 1.89 1.46 0.63 -1.14 2.47 1.86 0.84 -1.39 0.86 Urquhart et al. AGU Fall Meeting 2012 December 3, 2012 Satellite Ocean and Coastal Applications- Current and Future II Xu et al. (2002)

12. SO WHAT? Methods had similar SSS errors during data heavy months Interpolated SST had a smaller average error than ChesROMS Interpolated observations act as a second-source of Bay-wide observations Extreme event accuracy Data assimilation potential (future work) Observations can be utilized when they are available/reliable Hoffman et al. (2012) Two techniques offer complementary information that can be applied to Vibrio spp. monitoring Urquhart et al. AGU Fall Meeting 2012 December 3, 2012 Satellite Ocean and Coastal Applications- Current and Future II

13. z(V.c)= -1.1939 + (0.1233 * Temp) – (0.1997 * Saln) – (0.0324 * (Temp * Saln) Remote Sensing of Vibrio in the Chesapeake Bay Urquhart et al. AGU Fall Meeting 2012 December 3, 2012 Satellite Ocean and Coastal Applications- Current and Future II

14. Remote Sensing of Vibrio in the Chesapeake Bay Urquhart et al. AGU Fall Meeting 2012 December 3, 2012 Satellite Ocean and Coastal Applications- Current and Future II

15. Acknowledgments Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab, Carlos del Castillo Johns Hopkins University, Rebecca Murphy Cornell University, Dr. Bruce Monger University of Delaware, Erick Geiger University of Maryland, Bradd Haley, Elisa Taviani NASA Goddard, Molly Brown, Vanessa Escobar Funding Sources Johns Hopkins University