1. Calculate Volume And Performance Variances © Dale R. Geiger 20111

2. What Does it Mean?? 37 Best in class or worst? Best in class or worst? 37 out of 100? or 37 out of 37? 37 out of 100? or 37 out of 37? Better than last score or worse? Disappointed or elated? © Dale R. Geiger 20112

3. Terminal Learning Objective Task: Calculate Volume And Performance Variances Condition: You are a cost advisor technician with access to all regulations/course handouts, and awareness of Operational Environment (OE)/Contemporary Operational Environment (COE) variables and actors. Standard: with at least 80% accuracy Identify and enter relevant scenario data into macro enabled templates to calculate Volume and Performance Variance. Identify causes of variances © Dale R. Geiger 20113

4. Purpose for Variance Analysis Giving context to numbers creates their value Starting by creating an expectation Variance is difference between reality and expectation Volume Variance isolates ‘effect’ due to volume change All other variance to expectation is due to some sort of performance change © Dale R. Geiger 20114

5. Numbers Are Meaningless (without context) © Dale R. Geiger 20115

6. Favorable and Unfavorable Variances Variances report information in comparison to an expectation Let’s assume that the expectation is performance at the class average If class average was 20, your 37 grade represents a “favorable variance of 17” If class average was 87, your 37 grade represents an “unfavorable variance of 50” AverageScoreVariance 203717 8737(50) (unfavorable variances are always bracketed) Note that the variance conveys much more than the score © Dale R. Geiger 2011 6

7. Creating Expectations © Dale R. Geiger 20117

8. Cost Variance Consider an organization that spent $600K last month – what does this mean? Consider a variance report with comparison to a number of different expectations: Expectation VarianceInterpretation Plan500(100)Spent more than committed to Last Month65050Spent less than last month – cost went down Target600-Met the target Last Year400(200)Spent a lot more than last year © Dale R. Geiger 20118

9. Revenue Variance Consider an organization that had revenue of $600K last month – what does this mean? Note that the reporting and interpretation of variance has changed since more revenue is favorable while more cost is unfavorable Expectation VarianceInterpretation Plan500100Sold more than committed to Last Month650(50)Sold less than last month – sales went down Target600-Met the target Last Year400200Sold a lot more than last year © Dale R. Geiger 20119

10. Digging Deeper into Root Causes © Dale R. Geiger 201110

11. Check on Learning What is a variance? If revenue is greater than expectation how is the variance described? If cost is greater than expectation how is the variance described? © Dale R. Geiger 201111

12. Adjusts the forecast for changes in sales volume Uses the same unit price and unit cost assumptions used in the forecast Think of these as “what ifs” “What” would the forecast have been “if” volume were different than planned © Dale R. Geiger 201112 The Flexible Forecast

13. Flexible Forecast Example Assumptions: Price per Unit = $100 Fixed Cost = $10,000 Variable Cost per Unit = $50 Units Sold300400500 Revenue$30,000$40,000$50,000 Fixed Cost10,000 Var. Cost15,00020,00025,000 Profit$5,000$10,000$15,000 Note that fixed cost doesn’t change © Dale R. Geiger 201113

14. Flexible Forecast Example Assumptions: Price per Unit = $100 Fixed Cost = $10,000 Variable Cost per Unit = $50 Units Sold300400500 Revenue$30,000$40,000$50,000 Fixed Cost10,000 Var. Cost15,00020,00025,000 Profit$5,000$10,000$15,000 Contribution margin change “falls through” to profit © Dale R. Geiger 201114 Unit CM = $100 - $50 = $50 When units sold increases by 100, profit increases by 100 * $50 unit CM = $5,000

15. So What??? Flexible forecasting helps us dig deeper into the root causes of change from expectation Consider an organization where cost went up 20% but output went up 30% Cost increased, but it increased less that we might have expected How should we evaluate the compound effects of the volume change? This approach is called Volume Variance Analysis © Dale R. Geiger 201115

16. Volume Variance Analysis © Dale R. Geiger 201116

17. Step 1: Calculate Flexible Forecast PlanFlexible Fcst Units sold100130 Variable cost500650 © Dale R. Geiger 201117

18. Step 2: Compare to Plan The variance (non dollar) in units sold is favorable since more output is logically favorable The variance in variable cost is unfavorable since more cost is logically unfavorable This means that given our plan assumptions that we would expect cost to have increased to 650 solely due to the fact that we produced more PlanFlexible Fcst Volume Variance Units sold10013030 Variable cost500650(150) © Dale R. Geiger 201118

19. Step 3: Compare to Actual Results Moved the volume variance column to the left of the flexible forecast to allow room Now also show the variance between flexible forecast and actual between their columns This means that actual variable costs were less than the level we would have expected at the volume actually produced Plan Volume Variance Flexible Fcst Performance Variance Actual Units sold10030130- Variable cost500(150)65050600 © Dale R. Geiger 201119

20. Volume Variance Analysis This analysis now presents a much more meaningful insight into what happened Even though cost went up by 20% this analysis shows that there is a lot of good news here The volume variance of (150) is very understandable and predictable The performance variance indicates good work Plan Volume Variance Flexible Fcst Performance Variance Actual Units sold10030130- Variable cost500(150)65050600 © Dale R. Geiger 201120

21. Fixed Cost Impact Expand the example to include planned fixed at 80 and actual fixed cost at 90 Note: fixed cost never has a volume variance Note: the sum of volume and performance variance nets to the total variance between plan and actual Plan Volume Variance Flexible Fcst Performance Variance Actual Units sold10030130- Variable cost500(150)65050600 Fixed cost80- (10)90 Total cost580(150)73040690 © Dale R. Geiger 201121

22. Fixed Cost Impact Plan Volume Variance Flexible Fcst Performance Variance Actual Units sold10030130- Variable cost500(150)65050600 Fixed cost80- (10)90 Total cost580(150)73040690 © Dale R. Geiger 201122

23. Fixed Cost Impact Plan Volume Variance Flexible Fcst Performance Variance Actual Units sold10030130- Variable cost500(150)65050600 Fixed cost80- (10)90 Total cost730 © Dale R. Geiger 2011

24. Fixed Cost Impact Plan Volume Variance Flexible Fcst Performance Variance Actual Units sold10030130- Variable cost500(150)65050600 Fixed cost80- (10)90 Total cost580(150)73040690 © Dale R. Geiger 201124

25. Revenue (and Profit) Case Expand the example to include planned price of 10 and actual price of 8 Make sure you know where every number came from Note: revenue and costs variances net to profit variance Plan Volume Variance Flexible Fcst Performance Variance Actual Units sold10030130- Revenue3001300(260) Variable cost500(150)65050600 Fixed cost80- (10)90 Total cost(150)73040 Profit150570(220) © Dale R. Geiger 201125

26. Revenue (and Profit) Case Expand the example to include planned price of 10 and actual price of 8 Make sure you know where every number came from Note: revenue and costs variances net to profit variance Plan Volume Variance Flexible Fcst Performance Variance Actual Units sold10030130- Revenue10003001300(260)1040 Variable cost500(150)65050600 Fixed cost80- (10)90 Total cost580(150)73040690 Profit420150570(220)350 © Dale R. Geiger 201126

27. Revenue (and Profit) Case Expand the example to include planned price of 10 and actual price of 8 Make sure you know where every number came from Note: revenue and costs variances net to profit variance Plan Volume Variance Flexible Fcst Performance Variance Actual Units sold10030130- Revenue10003001300(260)1040 Variable cost500(150)65050600 Fixed cost80- (10)90 Total cost580(150)73040690 Profit420150570(220)350 © Dale R. Geiger 201127

28. Revenue (and Profit) Case Expand the example to include planned price of 10 and actual price of 8 Make sure you know where every number came from Note: revenue and costs variances net to profit variance Plan Volume Variance Flexible Fcst Performance Variance Actual Units sold10030130- Revenue10003001300(260)1040 Variable cost500(150)65050600 Fixed cost80- (10)90 Total cost580(150)73040690 Profit420150570(220)350 © Dale R. Geiger 201128

29. Revenue (and Profit) Case Plan Volume Variance Flexible Fcst Performance Variance Actual Units sold10030130- Revenue100013001040 Variable cost500(150)65050600 Fixed cost80- (10)90 Total cost580730690 Profit420570350 © Dale R. Geiger 201129

30. Volume Variance Template © Dale R. Geiger 201130 Performance VariancesVolume Variances

31. Volume Variance Template © Dale R. Geiger 201131 Performance VariancesVolume Variances

32. Check on Learning How should we expect an increase in the number of units sold to affect variable cost? The sum of the performance variances for revenue and total cost should be equal to what? © Dale R. Geiger 201132

33. Practical Exercise Repeat the previous exercise but with the following scenario PlanActual Price per Unit1012 Units10080 Variable Cost per Unit54 Fixed Cost9050 © Dale R. Geiger 201133

34. Practical Exercise © Dale R. Geiger 201134 Plan Volume Variance Flexible Fcst Performance Variance Actual Units sold100(20)80- Revenue1000(200)800160960 Variable cost50010040080320 Fixed cost90- 4050 Total cost590100490120370 Profit410(100)310280590

35. Practical Exercise © Dale R. Geiger 201135