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ETP 2012 – Choice of 3 Futures © OECD/IEA 2012 6DS where the world is now heading with potentially devastating results The 6°C Scenario 4DS reflecting pledges by countries to cut emissions and boost energy efficiency The 4°C Scenario 2DS a vision of a sustainable energy system of reduced Greenhouse Gas (GHG) and CO 2 emissions The 2°C Scenario
Clean energy: slow lane to fast track © OECD/IEA 2012 Progress is too slow in almost all technology areas Significant action is required to get back on track
Renewable power generation 42% Average annual growth in Solar PV 27% Average annual growth in wind 75% Cost reductions in Solar PV in just three years in some countries Renewables provide good news
Energy RD&D has slipped in priority © OECD/IEA 2012
A smart, sustainable energy system © OECD/IEA 2012 A sustainable energy system is a smarter, more unified and integrated energy system
Recommendations to Governments © OECD/IEA 2012 1. Create an investment climate of confidence in clean energy 2. Unlock the incredible potential of energy efficiency – “the hidden” fuel of the future 3. Accelerate innovation and public research, development and demonstration (RD&D)
Low-carbon electricity: a clean core © OECD/IEA 2012 Renewables will generate more than half the world’s electricity in 2050 in the 2DS TWh Global electricity generation in the 2DS
© OECD/IEA 2012 Renewables need to dominate EU electricity Renewables cover two-thirds of the electricity mix in 2050 in the 2DS, with wind power alone reaching a share of 30% in the mix. Other renewables Wind Solar Nuclear Solar Hydro Fossil w/o CCS Fossil w CCS 20092050
© OECD/IEA 2012 Renewables growth in Europe continues but slows Despite policy adjustments and macroeconomic situation, growth continues
All technologies have roles to play © OECD/IEA 2012 Nuclear is one piece of the puzzle Technology contributions to reaching the 2DS
© OECD/IEA 2012 Power generation from natural gas increases to 2030 in the 2DS and the 4DS. From 2030 to 2050, generation differs markedly. Natural gas-fired power generation must decrease after 2030 to meet the CO 2 emissions projected in the 2DS scenario. Natural gas as a transitional fuel
© OECD/IEA 2012 The CCS infant must grow quickly © OECD/IEA 2012 Note: Capture rates in MtCO 2 /year Mt CO 2
Heating & Cooling: the forgotten giant © OECD/IEA 2012 Heating and cooling account for 46% of global energy use. Their huge potential for cutting CO 2 emissions is often neglected.
Electric vehicles need to come of age © OECD/IEA 2012 More than 90% of new light duty vehicles need to be propelled by an electric motor in 2050 Global Passenger LDV sales (million)
Translating targets into action © OECD/IEA 2012 Government targets need to be backed by policy action 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Fuel economy makes a difference © OECD/IEA 2012 Fuel economy improvements in conventional and hybrid vehicles alone can save 11 mbbl/day. 6DS Better FE 2DS equivalent to 11mbbl/day reduction 6DS Better FE 2DS(I/A/S )
© OECD/IEA 2012 Clean energy investment pays off © OECD/IEA 2012 Every additional dollar invested in clean energy can generate 3 dollars in return.
© OECD/IEA 2012 Sustainable future still in reach © OECD/IEA 2012 Are we on track to reach a clean energy future? NO ✗ Can we get on track? YES ✓ Is a clean energy transition urgent? YES ✓
© OECD/IEA 2012 www.iea.org/etp For much more, please visit
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