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COUNTRY PRESENTATION PAKISTAN Presented by Liaqat Ali Chief Statistical Officer, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Government of Pakistan.

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Presentation on theme: "COUNTRY PRESENTATION PAKISTAN Presented by Liaqat Ali Chief Statistical Officer, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Government of Pakistan."— Presentation transcript:

1 COUNTRY PRESENTATION PAKISTAN Presented by Liaqat Ali Chief Statistical Officer, Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, Government of Pakistan

2 Contents Country Profile (Key Indicators) The General Statistics (Reorganization) Act, 2011 Defining National Accounts Different Approaches to compile GDP Framework of Pakistan’s current NA Sectors of the Economy Sector-wise Methodology and sources of data Capital Formation and Expenditure on GDP Summary Growth rates of GDP, Investment and CPI Rebasing of NA why and When? Major Improvements Adopting the Price Concept and Modern Classifications Main data sources Rebasing Exercise in Manufacturing Sector (Examples) Future Plans 2

3 Country Profile (Key Indicators end June, 2012) Name :-Islamic Republic of Pakistan Name :-Islamic Republic of Pakistan Population:-180.71 Million Population:-180.71 Million Urban 67.55 Million Urban 67.55 Million Rural113.17 Million Rural113.17 Million Population Growth Rate (%):-2.03 Population Growth Rate (%):-2.03 Labor Force:-59.3 Million Labor Force:-59.3 Million Employed Labor Force:-55.8 Million Employed Labor Force:-55.8 Million Un-Employed Labor Force:-3.5 Million Un-Employed Labor Force:-3.5 Million Un-Employment Rate:-6.0 Percent Un-Employment Rate:-6.0 Percent Crude Birth Rate (per 1000 person):-27.2 Crude Birth Rate (per 1000 person):-27.2 Crude Death Rate (per 1000 person):-7.2 Crude Death Rate (per 1000 person):-7.2 Infant Mortality Rate (per 1000 person):- 69.0 Infant Mortality Rate (per 1000 person):- 69.0 Life Expectancy (Years) Life Expectancy (Years) Females:-66.1 Females:-66.1 Males:-64.3 Males:-64.3(cont.)

4 Country Profile ( cont.) Literacy Rate:-58.0 (June,11) Literacy Rate:-58.0 (June,11) Male:-69.0 Male:-69.0 Female:-46.0 Female:-46.0 Expenditure on Education (%age of GNP):-1.8 Expenditure on Education (%age of GNP):-1.8 Registered Doctors (000 Nos.):-149.2 Registered Doctors (000 Nos.):-149.2 Registered Nurses (000 Nos.):- 76.2 Registered Nurses (000 Nos.):- 76.2 Registered Dentists (000 Nos.):- 10.9 Registered Dentists (000 Nos.):- 10.9 Expenditure on Health (%age of GNP):- 0.3 Expenditure on Health (%age of GNP):- 0.3 Per Capita Income:-US$ 1372 Per Capita Income:-US$ 1372 Exchange Rate:-Rs.88.31/US$ Exchange Rate:-Rs.88.31/US$ Financial Year:-1 st July to 30 th June Financial Year:-1 st July to 30 th June

5 The General Statistics (Reorganization) Act, 2011 Change of Name from Federal Bureau of Statistics (FBS) to Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) Under the Act, three data collecting departments i.e FBS, Population Census Organization, and Agriculture Census Organization have been merged into PBS The General Statistics (Reorganization) Act, 2011, governs the collection, compilation, and dissemination of statistics. The Act authorizes the Statistical Authorities and the Governing Council to ensure smooth statistical operations in the country. PBS is an autonomous body headed by Chief Statistician who is also Federal Statistics Authority under the Statistics Act The Act ensures confidentiality of information on individual, firm or institution and provides legal coverage to statistical activities in the country and also ensures that the collected information is used only for statistical purposes. The Act ensures statistical reporting and individuals or establishments that fail to supply data or supply false data can be fined/imprisoned under the Act

6 What is National Accounts The National Accounts is a systematic framework for the presentation of statistics that provide a wide range of information about the economy There are a number of aggregate measures in the national accounts, most notably gross domestic product or GDP and investment (GFCF). 6

7 NATIONAL ACCOUNTS Gives a systematic and quantitative view of the results of economic process as a whole in a certain period in economy. They constitute a record of all economic transactions which take place in a certain period of time between economic sectors with in a Country and also with ROW. The transactions are grouped.

8 DIFFERENT APPROACHES TO CALCULATE GDP: Production Approach: The production or output approach = Gross Output - Intermediate consumption Expenditure approach: (Final consumption expenditure of Households and Government + Gross fixed capital formation + changes in inventories (stocks) + exports – imports Or GDP = CH + CG + I + (E-X) Income Approach: Compensation of employees + Net indirect Taxes + net Operating surplus + Consumption of Fixed Capital 8

9 9 Framework of Pakistan’s NA   Regular Activities: GDP/GNP (factor costs) by industrial origin (by “sector”) Expenditure on GNP (market prices) Estimates of GFCF (market prices) by industrial origin for private & public sector and for general government Composition of general government consumption expenditure Other Activities: Input-Output Tables (1990-91) Rebasing of National Accounts from 1999-2000 to 2005-06 is in progress National Health Accounts

10 10 Sectors of the Economy A. Agriculture Sector Crops Major Crops Minor Crops Live Stock Fishery Forestry

11 11 Sectors of the Economy B. Industrial Sector   Mining and Quarrying   Manufacturing Large Scale Small Scale Slaughtering   Construction   Electricity, Gas & Water Supply

12 12 Sectors of the Economy C. Services Sector   Transport, Storage & Communication   Wholesale & Retail Trade   Finance & Insurance   Ownership of Dwellings   Public Admn. & Defence   Social, Community & Personal Services

13 13 Sector-wise Methodology and Sources of Data

14 14 CROPS Value of output including by-products (minus) Intermediate consumption Gross Value Added: Provincial Agriculture & Irrigation Departments, IRSA, WAPDA, Federal Directorate of Fertilizer, Pesticides Association, etc. Sources: Seeds, Fertilizer, Pesticides, Water, Transport Charges, etc. Intermediate Consumption: Rice, Wheat, Cotton, Sugarcane, Gram, Maize, etc. Pulses, Vegetables, Fruits, Oil seeds, Condiments, etc. Major crops: Minor crops:

15 Inputs Output Quantity (of Production) Prices (Crops) 125 kinds of Crops Value Seeds Fertilizers Ploughing & Planking Pesticides, weeding, Spraying etc Water Transportation charges Wastages Gross Value Added of Crop Production (Output minus Input)

16 16 LIVESTOCK Value of output including by-products (minus) Intermediate consumption Gross Value Added: Livestock and Dairy Development Division, Agriculture Census Organization, Pakistan Poultry Association etc. Sources: Roughages (green and dry), Concentrates (Grains, Oilcakes), Grass & Grazing, salt, Medicines, etc. Intermediate Consumption: Cattle and their products Poultry and their products Composition:

17 Livestock and Poultry Livestock Buffaloes Cattle Sheep Goats Camels Horses Mules Asses Poultry Broilers (Farming) Layers (Farming) Breeding stock (Farming) Poultry (Desi) Ducks, Drakes & Ducklings Eggs (Farming) Eggs (Desi)

18 Gross Output 1. 1. Net Sale (Sale – Purchase of Animals for Slaughtering) 2. 2. Natural Growth 3. 3. Livestock Products   Milk   Draught Power   Dung & Urine   Wool & Hair 4. 4. Poultry Products   Broilers (Farming)   Layers (Farming)   Poultry (Desi)   Ducks, Drakes & Ducklings   Breeding Stock (Farming)   Eggs (Farming)   Eggs (Desi)

19 Intermediate Consumption Fodder Green Dry Concentrate Poultry Inputs Other Inputs Transportation, POL, etc Medical care etc Interest (Bank charges) Repair & Maintenance Rent Paid (Building, Machinery etc) Value of chicks

20 20 FISHING Value of output (minus) Intermediate consumption Gross Value Added: Marine Fisheries Department, Provincial Fisheries Departments & Federal Bureau of Statistics. Sources: Salt, Ice, Fuel & Lubricants, Medicines, Chemicals, etc. and Auction Charges. Intermediate Consumption: Fish, Prawn, Shrimps, crabs, etc. from: Ocean, Coastal and Offshore water, Fish farms, Rivers, Canals, Lakes, Ponds, and inundated tracts, etc. Composition: Marine Inland

21 Fishery Marine Fishing Inland Fishing

22 Gross Output Production Price Value of Output

23 Intermediate consumption Marine Fishing Ice Salt Fuel Gas Others Inland Fishing Seed Feed POL /Elect Water Other

24 24 FORESTRY Value of output (minus) Intermediate consumption Gross Value Added: Federal Inspectorate General of Forests. Provincial Forest Departments. Pakistan Forest Institute Peshawar Sources: Seeds, plantation, fertilizer, etc. Intermediate Consumption: Timber, Firewood, Ephedra, Grass & Grazing, Resin, Medicinal herbs, and other Minor Forest Products/Output. Composition:

25 25 MINING & QUARRYING Value of output (minus) Intermediate consumption Gross Value Added: Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Resources, OGDC, etc. Coal and other Mineral Establishments, Provincial Mineral Departments Sources: Blasting Material, Fuel and Lubricants, etc. Intermediate Consumption: Crude oil, Natural Gas, Coal including other minerals, e.g. Rock Salt, Lime Stone, Dolomite, Gypsum, Fire clay, Phosphate, Marble, and Surface Minerals. Composition:

26 26 LARGE-SCALE MANUFACTURING For calculating growth rate of value added, Quantum Index of Manufacturing (QIM) is computed based on production data of 100 items having 75.07% weight (bench-mark 1999-2000) of Large Scale Manufacturing Sector. Ministry of Industries, OCAC,Provincial Bureaux of Statistics, Federal Bureau of Statistics. Sources: Food, Beverages, Tobacco, Textile, Leather, Wood & Wood Products, Paper & Boards, Chemicals, Pharmaceutical, Petroleum, Metal, Engineering, Electrical, Automobile and other Industrial products/ groups. Composition:

27 27 SMALL-SCALE MANUFACTURING 7.51 % based on Study on SSMI 1999-2000 Annual Growth: Based on special study and SHMI Surveys. Benchmark Estimates of Gross Value Added: All un-registered small and household manufacturing establishments Composition:

28 SLAUGHTERING The products meat (beef, mutton, chicken) and other products (hides, skins, bones and blood etc) constitute output of slaughtering. Annual Growth: Benchmark Estimates of Gross Value Added: Composition: The slaughtering industry relates to manufacturing whereas the livestock is a part of agriculture sector. Based on special study (1999-2000). Value of output (minus) Intermediate consumption Intermediate consumption: Value of Animals (Buffalo, Cattle, Sheep, Goat, etc and Poultry (Farm and Desi). Other inputs For calculating GVA of subsequent years, growth of meat is applied Source: Livestock Division, MINFAL

29 29 CONSTRUCTION Value added coefficients of Investment by kind of construction are multiplied to Investment made in that activity during the year. Value additions of all activities are summed up. Federal, Provincial & Local Bodies, Development Authorities, Major Public & Private Construction Establishments, Federal Bureau of Statistics. Sources: All major construction activities including repairs, additions/alterations, Land Improvement; Buildings; Roads, Bridges, Streets; Highways; Runways; Transport & Railway Tracts; Telephone, Power, Gas, Oil, Utility lines; Canals; Dams; Harbour & Barrages etc. Composition:

30 30 ELECTRICITY, GAS DISTRIBUTION & WATER SUPPLY Value of Electricity, Gas & Water Supply (plus) Misc. Receipts (minus) Industrial cost & Electricity/Gas purchases. Gross Value Added: WAPDA, KESC, KANUPP, Pak Steel, IPPs and Captive Power units. Sui Southern and Sui Northern Gas Cos., Mari Gas etc. IRSA, Provincial Irrigation Departments. Sources: Electricity: Gas: Water: Furnace Oil, Gas, Water, etc. Intermediate Consumption: Electricity, Gas distribution and Water supply Composition:

31 31 TRANSPORT, STORAGE & COMMUNICATION Value of output (plus) Misc. Receipts (minus) intermediate consumption Gross Value Added: Pakistan Railways, PNSC, KPT, PQA, KICT, QICT, PICT,CAA, PIA & other Airlines. NTRC, Asia Petroleum, PARCO, etc. Boats. PTCL, NTC,Mobile Phones,ISPs,PCOs, Post Offices, Courier Services, NLC, Town Committees (for Non- mechanized) Sources: Railway, Transport via Air, Water, Road and Pipeline, Storage & Communication (Post Office, Franchise Post Offices, Courier Co.s, PTCL, Cable Operators and ISP’s, Mobile Phone Cos., and PCOs Composition:

32 32 FINANCE & INSURANCE Value of output (plus) Misc. Receipts (minus) intermediate consumption Gross Value Added: State Bank of Pakistan, Scheduled Banks, Development Financial Institutions, Life and General Insurance Cos, Modarabas & Leasing Companies. Sources: State Bank of Pakistan, Scheduled Banks, DFIs, Insurance Companies, Modaraba & Leasing Companies. Composition:

33 33 WHOLESALE & RETAIL TRADE Composition:All Agricultural, Industrial Produce and Imports Sources:Provincial Governments & Federal Bureau of Statistics Value Added:Total value of trade margins applied on the marketed portions of Agriculture and Industrial Output as well as Imports.

34 34 OWNERSHIP OF DWELLINGS Coverage: Housing Units (rented as well as self occupied) and in urban and rural areas Sources:Housing Census & Rent Surveys Value Added:Gross Rentals (No. of Dwellings multiplied by average annual rent (minus) Value of current repairs and maintenance.

35 35 PUBLIC ADMN. & DEFENCE Composition: Federal, Provincial and District Governments and Cantonment Boards. Sources:Budget documents of Federal, Provincial, District Governments and Cantonment Boards. Gross Value Added: Sum of the compensation of employees (all Civil and Defence) (Plus) Depreciation on Govt. fixed assets

36 36 COMMUNITY, SOCIAL & PERSONAL SERVICES Composition: Education, Health, Business (Accounting, Auditing, Advertising, Photography etc.), Recreation, Social, Personal & Domestic Services, etc. Sources:Ministry of Education, PMDC, PNC, PBA, PEC, ACA, PAA, PHA, etc.

37 Capital Formation What are they? Definition Usually goods but also services That are owned From which owner expects future economic benefits over a period of time by using it or holding it (asset boundary) That will be used for more than one year

38 Fixed Capital Formation What are they? Scope They include New capital goods Existing capital goods Improvements to existing capital goods They can be Purchased Self-produced

39 Gross Fixed Capital Formation – Main Types Fixed assets Dwellings Other buildings and structures including land improvements Machinery and equipment Transport equipment ICT equipment Other machinery and equipment Weapon systems Cultivated biological resources Animal resources yielding repeat products. Tree, crop and plant resources yielding repeat products Costs of ownership transfer on non-produced assets Intellectual property products Research and development Mineral exploration and evaluation Computer software and databases Entertainment, literary or artistic originals Other intellectual property products

40 Gross Fixed Capital Formation Revised Questionnaire to collect GFCF data from source agencies Revised Questionnaire to collect GFCF data from source agencies

41 Valuables What are they? Definition Valuables are assets that: Are acquired as store of wealth Are not used up in production Do not deteriorate over time Examples: Precious stones and metals Antiques Works of arts Jewellery Data sources: Household surveys (HIES and PSLM) Retail trade surveys Surveys and censuses of producers

42 42 Expenditure on GNP Private Final Consumption Expenditure Government Final Consumption Expenditure Gross Fixed Capital Formation Changes in Stocks Exports (minus imports) of Good and Services Net Factor Income from Rest of the World

43 43 Private Final Consumption Expenditure   Final Consumption of goods and services of household and private non- profit institutions serving households   Measured through   Residually

44 44 Government Final Consumption Expenditure   Current expenditures on goods and services by all the departments and establishments of:   Federal Government   Provincial Governments   District Governments   Cantonments

45 Growth Rates of GDP and its components (CFC) PeriodGDPAgri.MfgCPSServices 1960s6.85.19.96.86.7 1970s4.82.45.53.96.3 1980s6.55.48.26.56.7 1990s4.64.44.84.6 2000s4.83.27.04.35.3 2010-11 (R) 3.02.43.11.54.5 2011-12 (P) 3.73.13.63.34.0

46 Growth Rate of Investment, GDP Deflator and CPI PeriodTot.InvTot.Inv (% of GDP) National Savings (% of GDP) GDP Deflator CPI 1960s----3.2 1970s21.817.111.2-12.5 1980s4.218.714.82.37.2 1990s8.118.313.88.39.7 2000s15.018.916.98.77.7 2010-11 (R) 2.313.113.218.213.9 2011-12 (P) 9.712.510.79.710.8

47 47 Current Base Period 1999-2000 The work on change of base 1999-2000 to 2005-06 is in progress.

48 48 Rebasing: why, when? Why? New censuses, surveys, studies New price basis New concepts (System of National Accounts) Improved methods and sources Changes in classifications (new PSIC, CPC) When in Pakistan > FY 1959-60, FY 1980-81 FY 1999-00 and FY 2005-06 (in progress)

49 49 Variables and time-series The variables will widely remain the same: GDP, Gross National Income, value added, Gross fixed capital formation and other components of expenditure side of GDP It is planned to revise the years prior to the base year, also (FY 1999/2000 onward). This is with requests from analysts and researchers to have long time-series.

50 50 Main improvements of data base Quantum Index of Manufacturing now rebased according to Census of Large Scale Manufacturing Industries 2005-06 Various new surveys and studies renewing price base for volume figures (“constant prices”)

51 51 Adopting the price concept recommended by SNA 1993 / 2008 The SNA recommends “basic prices” which differ from “factor cost” by indirect taxes or subsidies which do not vary with quantity or value of output. factor cost + taxes (less subsidies) on production (e.g. land, vehicles) = basic prices + taxes (less subsidies) on products (e.g. excise duties) = producers’ prices + trade and transport margins + non-deductible VAT (Sales Tax) = purchasers’ prices

52 52 Applying modern classifications Industrial classification PSIC 2007, delineated from United Nations’ “International Standard Industrial Classification of all Activities” (ISIC), Revision 3.1 (PSIC 2010) which has been adapted from International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC REV. 4) Central Product Classification (CPC) of United Nations, Version 2F:\Presentations\Presentation Tehran\CPC Items and weights.xlsF:\Presentations\Presentation Tehran\CPC Items and weights.xls

53 Main data sources: Censuses Census Manufacturing Industries (CMI) 2005-06 Agricultural Census 2000 Livestock Census 2006 Economic Census 2001 53

54 Main data sources: surveys Small scale and households manufacturing industries Wholesale & retail trade Storages and warehouses Rent survey Family budget survey Water supply & sanitation Social, recreational, community & personal services …. 54

55 Main data sources: studies Inland fishing Marine fishing Road transport Shipping, goods forwarding, customs clearing International freight forwarding Travel agents / tour operators Stock exchange brokers Exchange companies … 55

56 Main data sources: prices CPI and WPI now rebased (2007-08) PPI for selected commodities Special surveys on prices of agricultural products and inputs Unit value index for exports and imports Information on administered prices of various goods and services ► used for inflating volume figures / deflating value figures 56

57 Main sources of reconciliation Budget data Data of State Bank of Pakistan External transactions Exports and imports Net factor income from abroad Output of services of MFIs National Health Accounts 57

58 Rebasing Exercise in Manufacturing Sector

59 Manufacturing Manufacturing comprises establishments engaged in the physical or chemical transformation of materials, substances or components into new products. It contributes about 19% towards the GDP. It is covered in section D of the Pakistan Standard Industrial Classification (PSIC 2007) which has been adapted from International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC REV. 3.1) and includes 22 divisions. However it is covered in section C of the Pakistan Standard Industrial Classification (PSIC 2010) which has been adapted from International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC REV. 4) and includes 24 divisions Manufacturing comprises establishments engaged in the physical or chemical transformation of materials, substances or components into new products. It contributes about 19% towards the GDP. It is covered in section D of the Pakistan Standard Industrial Classification (PSIC 2007) which has been adapted from International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC REV. 3.1) and includes 22 divisions. However it is covered in section C of the Pakistan Standard Industrial Classification (PSIC 2010) which has been adapted from International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC REV. 4) and includes 24 divisions

60 Large Scale Manufacturing Large Scale Manufacturing covers the establishments registered or qualified for registrations under the Factories Act-1934, having 10 or more employees. Output in Base Year (Basic Prices)= Value of Production (Purchaser’s Price)- Trade Margin- Product Taxes + Subsidies on products Source: Census of Manufacturing Industries (CMI) 2005-06 Output in Base Year (Basic Prices)= Value of Production (Purchaser’s Price)- Trade Margin- Product Taxes + Subsidies on products Source: Census of Manufacturing Industries (CMI) 2005-06

61 Large Scale Manufacturing Output in Subsequent Years (Basic Prices)= Output in Subsequent Years will be extrapolated by applying the Quantum Index of Manufacturing Industries (QIM) comprising 112 items with base year 2005-06 Source: Industry Section, PBS Output in Subsequent Years (Basic Prices)= Output in Subsequent Years will be extrapolated by applying the Quantum Index of Manufacturing Industries (QIM) comprising 112 items with base year 2005-06 Source: Industry Section, PBS

62 Large Scale Manufacturing Intermediate Consumption in base year (Purchaser’s Prices)= Industrial Cost + Non Industrial Cost Industrial Cost :- Payments for raw materials, energy & water, and repair & maintenance Non Industrial Cost:- Payments for transport, insurance, copyrights, royalties, postage, telephone, printing, stationary, advertisements, travelling expenses etc. Source: Census of Manufacturing Industries (CMI) 2005-06 Intermediate Consumption in base year (Purchaser’s Prices)= Industrial Cost + Non Industrial Cost Industrial Cost :- Payments for raw materials, energy & water, and repair & maintenance Non Industrial Cost:- Payments for transport, insurance, copyrights, royalties, postage, telephone, printing, stationary, advertisements, travelling expenses etc. Source: Census of Manufacturing Industries (CMI) 2005-06

63 Large Scale Manufacturing Intermediate Consumption in Subsequent Years Intermediate Consumption in Subsequent Years will be extrapolated by applying the Quantum Index of Manufacturing Industries (QIM) comprising 112 items with base year 2005-06 Source: Industry Section, PBS Intermediate Consumption in Subsequent Years Intermediate Consumption in Subsequent Years will be extrapolated by applying the Quantum Index of Manufacturing Industries (QIM) comprising 112 items with base year 2005-06 Source: Industry Section, PBS

64 Large Scale Manufacturing Gross Value Added in Base Year (Basic Prices)= Output in base year (Basic Price)- Intermediate Consumption base year (Purchaser’s Price) Gross Value Added in Base Year (Basic Prices)= Output in base year (Basic Price)- Intermediate Consumption base year (Purchaser’s Price)

65 Large Scale Manufacturing Gross Value Added in Subsequent Years (Basic Prices)= Output in subsequent years (Basic Price)- Intermediate Consumption subsequent years (Purchaser’s Price) Gross Value Added in Subsequent Years (Basic Prices)= Output in subsequent years (Basic Price)- Intermediate Consumption subsequent years (Purchaser’s Price)

66 Large Scale Manufacturing (Example) LSM Detail working for Rebasing):- (F:\Presentations\Presentation Tehran\Updated Tables of GVA (LSM) Final 18-05-12.xlsxF:\Presentations\Presentation Tehran\Updated Tables of GVA (LSM) Final 18-05-12.xlsx Example of Extrapolation by Major Groups:- F:\Presentations\Presentation Tehran\Extrapolation of Output, IC of LSM 2005-06 to 11-12.xlsx F:\Presentations\Presentation Tehran\Extrapolation of Output, IC of LSM 2005-06 to 11-12.xlsx LSM Detail working for Rebasing):- (F:\Presentations\Presentation Tehran\Updated Tables of GVA (LSM) Final 18-05-12.xlsxF:\Presentations\Presentation Tehran\Updated Tables of GVA (LSM) Final 18-05-12.xlsx Example of Extrapolation by Major Groups:- F:\Presentations\Presentation Tehran\Extrapolation of Output, IC of LSM 2005-06 to 11-12.xlsx F:\Presentations\Presentation Tehran\Extrapolation of Output, IC of LSM 2005-06 to 11-12.xlsx

67 Small Scale Manufacturing Gross Value Added in Base Year (Basic Prices)= Output in base year (Basic Price)- Intermediate Consumption base year (Purchaser’s Price) Gross Value Added in Base Year (Basic Prices)= Output in base year (Basic Price)- Intermediate Consumption base year (Purchaser’s Price)

68 Small Scale Manufacturing Gross Value Added in Subsequent Years (Basic Prices)= Output in subsequent years (Basic Price)- Intermediate Consumption subsequent years (Purchaser’s Price) Example:-SSMI Working, GVA and Deflators Final 18-05-2012.xlsxSSMI Working, GVA and Deflators Final 18-05-2012.xlsx SSMI Extrapolation.xlsx Gross Value Added in Subsequent Years (Basic Prices)= Output in subsequent years (Basic Price)- Intermediate Consumption subsequent years (Purchaser’s Price) Example:-SSMI Working, GVA and Deflators Final 18-05-2012.xlsxSSMI Working, GVA and Deflators Final 18-05-2012.xlsx SSMI Extrapolation.xlsx

69 The solution for small scale manufacturing It is obvious that the study 1999-2000 failed to reflect the actual development. The inter-survey growth of GVA at factor cost (constant prices) during the period between 1987-88 and 2006-07 is 6.7 % while between 1996-97 and 2006-07 it was 8.2 %. As an average of the two, the rate of 7.5 has been applied for all years since 1999-2000. 69

70 The idea of FISIM Lending of money is not an activity contributing to GDP. Therefore, interest payments as such are not a reward for production. They are recorded under “distribution”, instead. Nevertheless, the banks are providing a service called “financial intermediation services indirectly measured” (FISIM). For short, it is an imputation calculated as interest received by them minus interest paid by them. Consumption of FISIM is either intermediate or final. 70

71 Future Plans 1. 1. Rebasing 2005-06 until 2009-10 (“final”) 2. 2. Calculate results 2010-11, 2011-12 and 2012-13 as “preliminary” but with new base 3. 3. Publish all results along with meta data 4. 4. Compilation of Input and Output PPI,s to ensure the implementation of Double Deflation 5. 5. Launching Quarterly National Accounts 6. 6. Launching Supply and Use Tables (2005-06) 71

72 Thank you www.pbs.gov.pk


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