1. Accelerating Change: Developing Tomorrow’s Medical Toolkit John Smart, President, ASF Medicine Meets Virtual Reality 14 Jan 2006 ◆ Long Beach, CA Slides: accelerating.org/slides.html

2. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Presentation Outline 1. Introduction 2. One Assumption 3. Two Processes of Change 4. Three Foresight Studies 5. Four Foresight Skills 6. Five Foresight Domains 7. Global Trends 8. Twenty Year Scenarios 9. Developing Tomorrow’s Medical Toolkit 10. Group Discussion

3. 1. Introduction

4. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Seeing the Extraordinary Present “There has never been a time more pregnant with possibilities.” - Gail Carr Feldman

5. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Carpe Diem "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you did not do than those you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover. Give yourself away to the sea of life." — Mark Twain "In a time of change, it is learners who inherit the future. The learned find themselves well equipped to live in a world that no longer exists." — Eric Hoffer

6. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org We Have Two Options: Future Shock or Future Shaping “We need a pragmatic optimism, a can- do, change-aware attitude. A balance between innovation and preservation. Honest dialogs on persistent problems, tolerance of imperfect solutions. The ability to avoid both doomsaying and paralyzing adherence to the status quo.” ― David Brin

7. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Acceleration Studies Foundation ASF (Accelerating.org) is a nonprofit community of 3,100 scientists, technologists, entrepreneurs, administrators, educators, analysts, humanists, and systems theorists discussing and dissecting accelerating change. We practice “developmental future studies,” that is, we seek to discover a set of persistent factors, stable trends, convergent capacities, and highly probable scenarios for our common future, and to use this information now to improve our daily evolutionary choices. Specifically, these include accelerating intelligence, immunity, and interdependence in our global sociotechnological systems, increasing technological autonomy, and the increasing intimacy of the human-machine, physical-digital interface.

8. 2. One Assumption: An Accelerating, Infopomorphic Universe

9. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Systems Theory Systems Theorists Make Things Simple (sometimes too simple!) "Everything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler." — Albert Einstein

10. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org From the Big Bang to Complex Stars: “The Decelerating Phase” of Universal ED

11. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org From Biogenesis to Intelligent Technology: The “Accelerating Phase” of Universal ED Carl Sagan’s “Cosmic Calendar” (Dragons of Eden, 1977) Each month is roughly 1 billion years.

12. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org A U-Shaped Curve of Change Big Bang Singularity 100,000 yrs ago: H. sap. sap. 1B yrs: Protogalaxies8B yrs: Earth 100,000 yrs: Matter 50 yrs ago: Machina silico 50 yrs: Scalar Field Scaffolds Developmental Singularity?

13. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org The MESTI Universe Matter, Energy, Space, Time  Information Increasingly Understood  Poorly Known MEST Compression/Density/Efficiency drives accelerating change.

14. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Physics of a “MESTI” Universe Physical Driver: MEST Compression/Efficiency/Density Emergent Properties: Information Intelligence (World Models) Information Interdepence (Ethics) Information Immunity (Resiliency) Information Incompleteness (Search) An Interesting Speculation in Information Theory: Entropy = Negentropy Universal Energy Potential is Conserved.

15. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Eric Chaisson’s “Phi” (Φ): A Universal Moore’s Law Curve Free Energy Rate Density Substrate(ergs/second/gram) Galaxies 0.5 Stars 2 (counterintuitive) Planets (Early) 75 Plants 900 Animals/Genetics 20,000(10^4) Brains (Human) 150,000(10^5) Culture (Human) 500,000(10^5) Int. Comb. Engines(10^6) Jets (10^8) Pentium Chips (10^11) Source: Eric Chaisson, Cosmic Evolution, 2001 Ф time

16. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org The Infopomorphic Paradigm The universe is a physical-computational system. We exist for information theoretic reasons. We’re here to create, plan, manage, and discover.

17. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Cosmic Embryogenesis (in Three Easy Steps) Geosphere/Geogenesis (Chemical Substrate) Biosphere/Biogenesis (Biological-Genetic Substrate) Noosphere/Noogenesis (Memetic-Technologic Substrate) Le Phénomène Humain, 1955 Pierre Teilhard de Chardin (1881-1955) Jesuit Priest, Transhumanist, Developmental Systems Theorist

18. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org De Chardin on Acceleration: Technological “Cephalization” of Earth "No one can deny that a network (a world network) of economic and psychic affiliations is being woven at ever increasing speed which envelops and constantly penetrates more deeply within each of us. With every day that passes it becomes a little more impossible for us to act or think otherwise than collectively." “Finite Sphericity + Acceleration = Phase Transition”

19. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Stock on ‘Metahumanity’: The Emerging Human Machine Superorganism Metaman: The Merging of Humans and Machines into a Global Superorganism, 1994 Biologist William Wheeler, 1937: Termites, bees, and other social animals are “superorganisms.” They increasingly can’t be understood apart from the structures their genetics compel them to construct. Developmental endpoint: an integrated cell/organism/supercolony.

20. 3. Two Processes of Change: Evolution and Development

21. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org The Left and Right Hands of “Evolutionary Development” Complex Environmental Interaction Selection & Convergence “Convergent Selection” Emergence,Global Optima MEST-Compression Standard Attractors Development Replication & Variation “Natural Selection” Adaptive Radiation Chaos, Contingency Pseudo-Random Search Strange Attractors Evolution Right HandLeft Hand Well-Explored Phase Space OptimizationNew Computat’l Phase Space Opening

22. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Evolution vs. Development “The Twin’s Thumbprints” Consider two identical twins: ThumbprintsBrain wiring Evolution drives almost all the unique local patterns. Development creates the predictable global patterns.

23. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Marbles, Landscapes, and Basins (Complex Systems, Evolution, & Development) The marbles (systems) roll around on the landscape, each taking unpredictable (evolutionary) paths. But the paths predictably converge (development) on low points (MEST compression), the “attractors” at the bottom of each basin.

24. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org How Many Eyes Are Developmentally Optimal? Evolution tried this experiment. Development calculated an operational optimum. Some reptiles (e.g. Xantusia vigilis, and certain skinks) still have a parietal (“pineal”) vestigial third eye.

25. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org How Many Wheels are Developmentally Optimal on an Automobile? Examples: Wheel on Earth. Social computation device. Diffusion proportional to population density and diversity.

26. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Evolution and Development: Two Universal Systems Processes Each are pairs of a fundamental dichotomy, polar opposites, conflicting models for understanding universal change. The easy observation is that both processes have explanatory value in different contexts. The deeper question is when, where, and how they interrelate. Evolution Chance Randomness Variety/Many Possibilities Uniqueness Uncertainty Accident Bottom-up Divergent Differentiation Development Necessity Determinism Unity/One Constraints Sameness Predictability Design (self-organized or other) Top-Down Convergent Integration

27. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Two Political Polarities: Innovation/Discovery vs. Mgmt/Sustainability Evo-Devo Theory Brings Process Balance to Political Dialogs on Innovation and Sustainability Developmental sustainability without generativity creates sterility, clonality, overdetermination, adaptive weakness (Maoism). Evolutionary generativity (innovation) without sustainability creates chaos, entropy, a destruction that is not naturally recycling/creative (Anarchocapitalism).

28. 4. Three Foresight Studies: Futures, Development, and Acceleration

29. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Humans are Prediction Systems Jeff Hawkins, Inventor, PalmPilot, CTO, Palm Computing Founder, Redwood Neurosciences Institute Author, On Intelligence: How a New Understanding of the Brain will Lead to the Creation of Truly Intelligent Machines, 2004 “Our brain is structured for constant forecasting.”

30. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org The Prediction Wall and The Prediction Crystal Ball What does hindsight tell us about prediction? The Year 2000 was the most intensive long range prediction effort of its time, done at the height of the forecasting/ operations research/ cybernetics/ think tank (RAND) driven/ “instrumental rationality” era of Futures Studies. (Kahn & Wiener, 1967).

31. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Three Essential Foresight Studies: Futures, Development, and Acceleration Futures Studies – “Possible” change (scenarios, alternatives) Development Studies – “Irreversible” change (emergences, phase changes) Acceleration Studies – “Accelerating” change (exponential growth, positive feedback, self-catalyzing, autonomous)

32. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Brief History of Futures Studies 1902, H.G. Wells, Anticipations 1904, Henry Adams, A Law of Acceleration 1945, Project RAND (RAND Corp.) 1946, Stanford Research Institute (SRI International) 1962, Arthur C. Clarke, Profiles of the Future 1967, World Future Society, Institute for the Future 1970, Alvin Toffler, Future Shock 1974, University of Houston, Studies of the Future M.S. 1977, Carl Sagan, Dragons of Eden 1986, Eric Drexler, Engines of Creation, 1995, Tamkang U, Center for Futures Studies 1999, Ray Kurzweil, Age of Spiritual Machines 2002, Acceleration Studies Foundation

33. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Four Types of Futures Studies – Exploratory (Speculative Literature, Art) – Consensus-Driven (Political, Trade Organizations) – Agenda-Driven (Institutional, Strategic Plans) – Research-Predictive (Stable Developmental Trends) The last is the critical one for acceleration studies and development studies It is also the only one generating falsifiable hypotheses Accelerating and increasingly efficient, autonomous, miniaturized, and localized computation is apparently a fundamental meta-stable universal developmental trend. Or not. That is a key hypothesis we seek to address.

34. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Warning: Never Trust a Single Futurist (Including Me) Never Make Big Decisions Without Using a Futures Network Each of us sees only a piece of the elephant and is easily wrong. A multi-biased network gives you a wider and deeper map of the possibility space. This will make you more adaptive, and may make you more foresighted. Modern culture spends a lot of time in the past and present, but very little thinking about personal, organizational, and global futures. Learn to fight this increasingly costly bias. “You can’t get an unbiased education, so the next best thing is a multi-biased one.”  Buckminster Fuller Lesson: Develop your network, map the controversies, have tolerance for ambiguity, seek good data, notice weak signals, optimize today but expect emergence. Be skeptical. Consult the crowd but make your own decisions.

35. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Where are the U.S. College Courses in Foresight Development? Tamkang University 27,000 undergrads Top-ranked private university in Taiwan Like history and current affairs, futures studies (15 courses to choose from) have been a general education requirement since 1995. Why not here?

36. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Graduate Foresight Programs: Futures Studies, STS, Roadmapping Futures Studies (two U.S. graduate programs) Science and Technology Studies (30+ U.S. programs) Tech Roadmapping (five U.S. programs. First PhD under Mike Radnor at Northwestern in 1998). Artificial Life, Complexity Science, Systems Science, Simulation Learning: All still too early for foresight specializations. Tech roadmapping is a process presently being used for major capital investment in industry (e.g. ITRS, which began as NTRS only in 1992). Tech Roadmapping is the closest yet to Development and Acceleration Studies.

37. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Human Development Studies: Sequential Growth Stages Stages are probability functions, not discrete “levels” of development. They are sequential and directional, but you can regress with abnormal trauma or deterioration.

38. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Gilligan’s Stages of Female Moral Development StageSample Question: Is abortion a woman’s right? Universal Care (integral, weighted, plural) “Yes, sometimes” (birth defects, etc.) Care (culture, conformity, code) “No” (against dominant culture/code/convention) Selfish (ego, individual) “Yes” (my body, my choice) Carol Gilligan Stages are probabilities, but they are sequential and directional. This is reasonably good research.

39. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Debser’s Stages of Cultural Development StageSample Belief System Integral“Many things change the world.” Rational“Science/work changes the world.” Mythic“Other’s power changes the world.” Magic“My wishes change the world.” Archaic“Nothing changes the world.” Eugene Debser Some stage conceptions have less evidence at present, but remain good candidates for further research.

40. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Maslow’s Hierarchy of Self-Needs Development Smart’s Hierarchy of Technoeconomic Development Self-transcendence (Religion & Death) / Property Biotranscension Society Digital Twin IT Society Valuecosm IT Society Network IT Society Manufacturing Society Agricultural Society Biological Learning StagesTechnological Learning Stages / Self-identity / Self-expression

41. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Developmental Windows In 2005, India is seeing a grassroots movement to get schools to teach English in first grade (vs. fourth grade). Three to six is a developmental window for effortless language acquisition. Mandarin or Hindi for your child? Zerotothree.org What will tomorrow’s for-profit daycare chains be like?

42. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Something Curious Is Going On Unexplained. (Don’t look for this in your physics or information theory texts…)

43. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Henry Adams, 1909: The First “Singularity Theorist” The final Ethereal Phase would last only about four years, and thereafter "bring Thought to the limit of its possibilities." Wild speculation or computational reality? Still too early to tell, at present.

44. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Acceleration Studies: Our Historical Understanding of Accelerating Change In 1904, we seemed nearly ready to see intrinsically accelerating progress. Then came mechanized warfare (WW I, 1914-18, WW II, 1939-45), Communist oppression (60 million deaths). 20 th century political deaths of 170+ million showed the limitations of human- engineered accelerating progress models. Today the idea of accelerating progress remains in the cultural minority, even in first world populations. It is viewed with interest but also deep suspicion by a populace traumatized by technological extremes, global divides, and economic fluctuation. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Out of Control, 1993

45. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org The Technological Singularity Hypothesis Each unique physical- computational substrate appears to have its own “capability curve.” The information inherent in these substrates is apparently not made obsolete, but is instead incorporated into the developmental architecture of the next emergent system.

46. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org The Developmental Spiral Homo Habilis Age2,000,000 yrs ago Homo Sapiens Age 100,000 yrs Tribal/Cro-Magnon Age40,000 yrs Agricultural Age7,000 yrs Empires Age2,500 yrs Scientific Age 380 yrs (1500-1770) Industrial Age180 yrs (1770-1950) Information Age70 yrs (1950-2020) Symbiotic Age30 yrs (2020-2050) Autonomy Age10 yrs (2050-2060) Tech Singularity ≈ 2060

47. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Four Pre-Singularity Subcycles? A 30-year cycle, from 1990-2020 – 1st gen "stupid net "/early IA, weak nano, 2nd gen Robots, early Ev Comp. World security begins. A 20-year cycle, from 2020-2040 – CUI network, Biotech, not bio-augmentation, Adaptive Robots, Peace/Justice Crusades. A 10-year cycle, from 2040-2050 – CUI personality capture (weak uploading), Mature Self-Reconfig./Evolutionary Computing. 2050: Era of Strong Autonomy – Progressively shorter 5-, 2-, 1-year tech cycles, each more autocatalytic, seamless, human-centric.

48. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Macrohistorical Singularity Books The Evolutionary Trajectory, 1998 Singularity 2130 ±20 years Trees of Evolution, 2000 Singularity 2080 ±30 years

49. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Macrohistorical Singularity Books Why Stock Markets Crash, 2003 Singularity 2050 ±10 years The Singularity is Near, 2005 Singularity 2050 ±20 years

50. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org “Unreasonable” Effectiveness and Efficiency of Science and the Microcosm: Wigner and Mead The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the Natural Sciences, Nobel Laureate Eugene Wigner, 1960 After Wigner and Freeman Dyson’s work in 1951, on symmetries and simple universalities in mathematical physics. Commentary on the “Unreasonable Efficiency of Physics in the Microcosm,” VLSI Pioneer Carver Mead, c. 1980. F=ma E=mc 2 F=-(Gm 1 m 2 )/r 2 W=(1/2mv 2 ) In 1968, Mead predicted we would create much smaller (to 0.15 micron) multi-million chip transistors that would run far faster and more efficiently. He later generalized this observation to a number of other devices.

51. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org The NBIC Report and Conferences Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance: Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology and Cognitive Science Edited by Mike Roco and William Sims Bainbridge, National Science Foundation, 2002 (NSF/DoC Sponsored Report) www.wtec.org/ConvergingTechnologies/

52. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org “NBICS”: 5 Choices for Strategic Technological Development Nanotech (micro and nanoscale technology) Biotech (biotechnology, health care) Infotech (computing and comm. technology) Cognotech (brain sciences, human factors) Sociotech (remaining technology applications) Nanotech and Infotech drive the other accelerations, and follow unique MEST-efficiency developmental dynamics. It is a common trap to spend excessive R&D, mfg, marketing funds on too-early technology in any NBICS category. Infotech examples: A.I., multimedia, internet, wireless, fiber (Global Crossing, 1990’s) It is almost as common to spend disproportionately on older, less centrally accelerating technologies. Every technology has an ideal time and place for innovation and diffusion. Be aware of both first and second mover advantages.

53. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Example: Holey Optical Fibers Above: SEM image of a photonic crystal fiber. Note periodic array of air holes. The central defect (missing hole in the middle) acts as the fiber's core. The fiber is about 40 microns across. This conversion system is a million times (10 6 ) more energy efficient than all previous converters. These are the kinds of jaw-dropping efficiency advances that continue to drive the nano and ICT revolutions. Such advances are due even more to human discovery (in physical microspace) than to human creativity, which is why they have accelerated throughout the 20th century, even as we remain uncertain exactly why they continue to occur. Lasers today can made cheaply only in some areas of the EM spectrum, not including, for example, UV laser light for cancer detection and tissue analysis. It was discovered in 2004 that a hollow optical fiber filled with hydrogen gas, a device known as a "photonic crystal," can convert cheap laser light to the wavelengths previously unavailable.

54. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Tech Roadmappers Carefully Watch Efficiency/Cost/Capacity Curves! Toshiba Li-Ion NanobatteryWhat Might This Enable? 80% recharge in 60 seconds 99% duty after 1,000 cycles Reliable at temp extremes Cost competitive New consumer wearable and mobile electronics Military apps Plug-in hybrids at home and filling stations (“90% of an electric vehicle economy”) “The future’s already here. It’s just not evenly distributed yet.” ― William Gibson

55. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org An Electric Future: Natural Gas, Nanobatteries, and Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles Nanobatteries can make electric car recharging as fast as gas tank filling, and tomorrow's power grids will be much more decentralized than today's gasoline stations, supporting even greater city densities. “Driving Toward an Electric Future,” John Smart, 2006 Natural gas, already 20% of US energy consumption, is the fastest growing and most efficient component. Nanobatteries recharge 80% in 60 seconds, keep 99% of their duty after 1,000 cycles. 180+ mpg Prius. 34 miles on battery only.

56. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org The Future of High Density Urban Transport: Underground Automated Highway Systems May be significantly cheaper than air taxi transport. TBMs growing exponentially. No visual blight, safe, reclaim surface real estate. 10X present capacity under our cities. Requires IV’s and ZEV’s (2025+) “Underground Automated Highway Systems: A 2030 Scenario,” John Smart, 2005

57. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Understanding the Lever of Nano and ICT “The good opinion of mankind, like the lever of Archimedes, with the given fulcrum [representative democracy], moves the world.” (Thomas Jefferson, 1814) The lever of accelerating information and communications technologies (in outer space) with the fulcrum of physics (in inner space) increasingly moves the world. (Carver Mead, Seth Lloyd, George Gilder…) "Give me a lever, a fulcrum, and place to stand and I will move the world." Archimedes of Syracuse (287-212 BC), quoted by Pappus of Alexandria, Synagoge, c. 340 AD

58. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Hurricane Control: New DoD/NASA/NOAA Security Mission? Hurricane Ivan: $11B in property damage. 11 named storms in 10 months in 2004, 7 caused damage in U.S. NOAA expects decades of hurricane hyperactivity. “Controlling Hurricanes,” Scientific American, 10.2004 Ross Hoffman, use Solar Powered Satellites (SPS’s). In 1968, Peter Glaser, microwave-relay SPS’s for power on earth, tuned away from climate. These would be tuned to water vapor (like microwave oven). Low pressure centers disruptible by atmospheric heating. Very sensitive to hi pressure side steering. Cyclones, monsoons, blizzards, possibly even tornados. Research: Russian mylar mirrors, 1993, 1999 (failed). 23 m mirror (above), 5 km light circle on the ground. Arrays would raise surface temp. several degrees.

59. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org A Saturation Lesson: Biology vs. Technology How S Curves Get Old Resource limits in a niche Material Energetic Spatial Temporal Competitive limits in a niche Intelligence/Info-Processing No Known or Historical Limits to Information Acceleration 1. Our special universal structure permits each new computational substrate to be far more MEST resource-efficient than the last 2. The most complex local systems have no intellectual competition Result: No Apparent Limits to the Acceleration of Local Intelligence, Interdependence, and Immunity in New Substrates Over Time

60. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Eldredge and Gould (Biological Species) Pareto’s Law (“The 80/20 Rule”) (income distribution  technology, econ, politics) Rule of Thumb:20% Punctuation (Development) 80% Equilibrium (Evolution) Suggested Reading: For the 20%: Clay Christiansen, The Innovator's Dilemma For the 80%: Jason Jennings, Less is More Punctuated Equilibrium (in Biology, Technology, Economics, Politics…)

61. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Two Kinds of Accelerations: Transformational (Punctuation) vs. Efficiency (Equilibrium) Business Week’s First Edition, October 1929: IBM has an ad for “electric sorting machines.” PG&E has an ad announcing natural gas powered factories in San Francisco. Could we have predicted that one of these technologies would continually transform itself while another would experience accelerating incremental efficiencies but, on the surface, appear unchanged?

62. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Lesson: Maintaining Equilibrium is Our 80% Adaptive Strategy While we try unpredictable evolutionary strategies to improve our intelligence, interdependence, and resiliency, these won’t always work. What is certain is that successful solutions always increase MEST efficiency, they “do more, better, with less.” Strategies to capitalize on this:  Teach efficiency as a civic and business skill.  Look globally to find resource-efficient solutions.  Practice competitive intelligence for MEST-efficiency.  Build a national culture that rewards refinements. Examples: Brazil's Urban Bus System. Open Source Software. Last year’s mature technologies. Recycling. 30 million old cell phones in U.S. homes and businesses.

63. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Acceleration Quiz Q: Of the 100 top economies in the world, how many are multinational corporations and how many are nation states?

64. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Acceleration Quiz Q: Of the 100 top revenue generating entities in the world, how many are multinational corporations and how many are nation states? 76 MNC’s and 24 Nations. GBN, Future of Philanthropy, 2005

65. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Acceleration Quiz Q: How many of the lowest net-worth Americans would it take to approximate Bill Gate’s net worth? (296 million Americans in 2005)

66. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Acceleration Quiz Q: How many of the lowest net-worth Americans would it take to approximate Bill Gate’s net worth? Roughly 110 million Americans in 1997, when his net worth was $40 billion. At $30 billion presently (2005), Mr. Gates ranks roughly as the 60 th largest country, and the 55 th largest business. When MSFT went public in 1986, Bill was worth $230 million. NYU economist Edward Wolff (See also Top Heavy, 2002)

67. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Acceleration Quiz Q: Disney and Sony (respectively) produce and launch one new product every _________?

68. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Acceleration Quiz Q: Disney and Sony (respectively) produce and launch one new product every _________? Three minutes for Disney. Twenty minutes for Sony. Elizabeth Debold, What is Enlightenment?, March-May 2005

69. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org World Economic Performance GDP Per Capita in Western Europe, 1000 – 1999 A.D. This curve looks quite smooth on a macroscopic scale. Notice the “knee of the curve” occurs at the industrial revolution, circa 1850.

70. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Oil Refinery (Multi-Acre Automatic Factory) Tyler, Texas, 1964. 360 acres. Run by three operators, each needing only a high school education. The 1972 version eliminated the three operators.

71. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Understanding Process Automation Perhaps 80% of today's First World paycheck is paid for by automation (“tech we tend”). Robert Solow, 1987 Nobel in Economics (Solow Productivity Paradox, Theory of Economic Growth) “7/8 comes from technical progress.” Human contribution (20%?) to a First World job is Social Value of Employment + Creativity + Education Developing countries are next in line (sooner or later). Continual education and grants (“taxing the machines”) are the final job descriptions for all human beings. Termite Mound

72. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Automation and Job Disruption Between 1995 and 2002 the world’s 20 largest economies lost 22 million industrial jobs. This is the shift from a Manufacturing to a Service Economy. America lost about 2 million industrial jobs, mostly to China. China lost 15 million ind. jobs, mostly to machines. (Fortune) Despite the shrinking of America's industrial work force, the country's overall industrial output increased by 50% since 1992. (Economist) “Robots are replacing humans or are greatly enhancing human performance in mining, manufacture, and agriculture. Huge areas of clerical work are also being automated. Standardized repetitive work is being taken over by electronic systems. The key to America's continued prosperity depends on shifting to ever more productive and diverse services. And the good news is jobs here are often better paying and far more interesting than those on we knew on the farms and the assembly line.”  Tsvi Bisk "The Misery of Manufacturing," The Economist. Sept. 27, 2003 "Worrying About Jobs Isn't Productive," Fortune Magazine. Nov. 10, 2003 “The Future of Making a Living,” Tsvi Bisk, 2003

73. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Automation Development Always Creates Massive Economic-Demographic Shifts Automating of farming pushed people into factories (1820, 80% of us were farmers, 2% today) Automating of factories is pushing people into service (1947, 35% were in factories, 14% today) Automating of service is pushing people into service networks (Network 2.0) (2003, 65% of GDP is service industry) Automating of networks will push people into collective/self-expression (symbionts/valuecosm) Automating individual and group values will push people into self-actualization (digital twins/ personality capture) Automating of self-actualization will push people beyond biology (“transhumanity”)

74. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Back to the Greek Future Greece built an enviable empire on the backs of human slaves. 21C humanity is building an even more enviable one on the backs of our robotic servants. Expect machine emancipation, too. “The more things change, the more some things stay the same.”

75. 5. Four Foresight Skills: Innovation, Planning, Profiting, Predicting

76. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Integral (Strategic) Foresight: Greeks, Pronouns, Skill Sets and Processes Greeks True What Is Good What ‘We’ Want Beautiful What ‘I’ Want Pronouns It/ItsWe/He/She/YouI/Me Foresight Skill Sets Discovery Universal Management Social Creativity Individual Processes Development Convergence Statics/Dynamics Law/Emergence Evolution Divergence

77. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Integral Thinking: Edward De Bono’s Six Thinking Hats It/ItsWe/He/She/YouI/Me White (Facts) Yellow (Social Positive) Red (Intuition) Blue (Process) Black (Social Negative) Green (Creative)

78. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Integral Maps: Ken Wilber’s Process ‘Quadrants’ Computational Processes Management/Validity Tests We need foresight in all quadrants (processes and management tests). All drive change. None can be reduced to the others There are no others as basic!

79. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Types of Intelligence: Gardner’s Eight ‘Frames’/ ‘Modules’ Gardner has developed research and metrics for eight different “frames” or “modules” of human capacity. A promising way to look at thinking.

80. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Integral Intelligence: Gardner’s ‘Frames,’ Wilber’s ‘Lines’ I (Innovating)It (MEST Mgmt - Profiting) Intrapersonal/Self-Identity Body/Kinesthetic/Health Cog-Emot/Needs/Self-Care Creativity/Innovating/Vision Visual/Spatial Aural/Musical MEST/Thing-Care Decisionmaking/Adapting We (Social Mgmt - Planning)Its (Predicting) Interpersonal/Social-Identity Linguistic/Social-Narrative Intimacy/Social-Care Moral/Cultural/Social-Relation Nature/Systems Logical/Mathematical Object Relatns/Structure-Care Discovery/Predictive/Counting Meta/Integral/Spiritual (Attractor) Wilber proposes additional intelligence lines/dimensions on top of Gardner’s. I’ve mapped nine I see evidence for to his quadrants above. They fit nicely. Wilber also proposes all lines follow a developmental vector, that the higher levels of all lines look spiritual, and that the spiritual line is a convergent intelligence attractor that continually tries to look meta (above, beyond) all the other lines.

81. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Four Essential Foresight Skills: Innovating, Planning, Profiting, and Predicting Innovating/Creating (I) – tools and strategies for envisioning and creating personal preferred futures, science fiction, creative thinking, innovation, research and development, organizational leadership Planning/Negotiating (We) – social networking, collective visioning, consensus building, risk mgmt (insurance), budgeting, hedging, strategic planning, enterprise robustness and resilience planning Profiting/Adapting (It) – Entrepreneurship, management and decisionmaking (ERP, CRM, IT, HR, etc.), accounting, measured economic, social, and environmental benefits Predicting/Discovering (Its) – soft to hard: environmental scanning, marketing research, business intelligence, scenarios, history of prediction, roadmapping, forecasting methods, metrics, statistical trends, risk analysis, systems theory and science.

82. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Integral Leadership The best leaders are passionate about 1) creating community, and 2) making it easy for users to find their voice. Stephen Covey, The Eighth Habit, 2004 “Find your voice and inspire others to find theirs.” Slow to criticize, ego-minimizing, always striving to be nice, modeling good behavior, empathic, yet responsive to communication problems.

83. 6. Five Foresight Domains: Individual, Social, National, Planetary, Universal

84. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Integral Foresight Development: Wilber, De Bono, Gardner, Ichazo, Jenkins, Jung, Myers-Briggs, Smart I (Innovating) Subjective Self It (MEST Mgmt - Profiting) Objective Self Intrapersonal/Self-Identity Body/Kinesthetic/Health Cog-Emotional/Needs/Self-Care Creativity/Innovating/Visioning The Individualist (4) (Type A) The Enthusiast (7) (Type B) “I” Introverted Orientation “F” Feeling Function INFP, INFJ, ISFP Visual/Spatial Aural/Musical MEST/Thing-Care Decisionmaking/Adapting (Z & NZ) The Challenger (8) (Type A) The Loyalist (6) (Type B) “J” Judging Process (Think or Feel) “S” Sensing Function ESTJ, ISTJ, ESFJ, ISFJ We (Social Mgmt - Planning) Subjective System Its (Predicting) Objective System Interpersonal/Social-Identity Linguistic/Social-Narrative Intimacy/Social-Care Moral/Cultural/Social-Relation The Achiever (3) (Type A) The Helper (2) (Type B) “E” Extroverted Orientation “N” Intuition Function ENFP, ENFJ, ENTP, ENTJ Nature/Systems Logical/Mathematical Object Relations/Structure-Care Discovery/Predictive/Counting The Reformer (1) (Type A) The Investigator (5) (Type B) “P” Perceiving Process (Intuit or Sense) “T” Thinking Function INTP, ESTP, ISTP  Meta/Integral/Spiritual (Attractor)  The Peacemaker (9) (Types A and B)  INTJ, ESFP (Integral Types) Wilber’s Four “Quadrants” Smart’s Four “Foresight Skills” Gardner’s Eight “Intelligences” (Multiple Intelligences) Wilber’s Nine Additional “Developmental Lines” (Smart’s Interpretation) Ichazo/Naranjo’s (Enneagram) Nine “Personality Types”, (Subtyped by Jenkin’s Type A/Type B Classifiers Myers-Briggs Sixteen Personality Types (Jung’s 4 Mental Functions, 2 Orientations, and 2 Processes). Fourteen of the sixteen M-B types weight to one of the four quadrants by possessing both its function and its orientation or process. Note that there are eight M-B “manager” (the most prevalent), three “creator” types, three “discoverer” types, and two “integral” types. This seems a good reflection of these skills and prevalence in the general population.

85. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Integral Systems: Five Systems of Human Computation (“Dialogs”) I (Individual)It (National) Individual (Vitality, Creativity) National/Tribal (Politics, Economics) We (Social)Its (Planetary) Social/Family/Relationship (Culture, Psychology) Planetary/Species (Peace, Globalization, Environment, Science) Universal (Technology, Computation) (Attractor) Question: Which is unlike the others? The universal system is growing apparently asymptotically in local capacities, affecting all the others. These five systems/dialogs may exist on all Earth-like planets (e.g., be astrobiologically developmental).

86. 7. Global Trends in an Accelerating World

87. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Three Hierarchical Systems of Social Change Technological (dominant since 1920-50) “It’s all about the technology” (what it enables in society, in itself, how easily it can be developed) Economic (dominant 1800-1950’s, secondary now) “It’s all about the money” (who has it, control they gain with it) Political/Cultural (dominant pre-1800’s, tertiary now) “It’s all about the power” (who has it, control they gain with it) Developmental Trends: 1. The levels have reorganized, to “fastest first.” 2. More pluralism (a network property) on each level. Pluralism examples: 40,000 NGO’s, rise of the power of Media, Tort Law, Insurance, lobbies, etc.

88. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Smart’s Laws of Technology 1. Tech learns ten million times faster than you do. (Electronic vs. biological rates of evolutionary development). 2.Humans are selective catalysts, not controllers, of technological evolutionary development. (Regulatory choices. Ex: WMD production or transparency, P2P as a proprietary or open source development) 3. The first generation of any technology is often dehumanizing, the second is indifferent to humanity, and with luck the third becomes net humanizing. (Cities, cars, cellphones, computers).

89. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Classic Predictable Accelerations: Moore’s Law Moore’s Law derives from two predictions in 1965 and 1975 by Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, (and named by Carver Mead) that computer chips (processors, memory, etc.) double their complexity every 12-24 months at near constant unit cost. This means that every 15 years, on average, a large number of technological capacities (memory, input, output, processing) grow by 1000X (Ten doublings: 2,4,8…. 1024). Emergence! There are several abstractions of Moore’s Law, due to miniaturization of transistor density in two dimensions, increasing speed (signals have less distance to travel) computational power (speed × density).

90. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Ray Kurzweil: A Generalized Moore’s Law

91. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Transistor Doublings (2 years) Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net

92. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Processor Performance (1.8 years) Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net

93. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org DRAM Miniaturization (5.4 years) Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net

94. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Dickerson’s Law: Solved Protein Structures as a Moore’s-Dependent Process Richard Dickerson, 1978, Cal Tech: Protein crystal structure solutions grow according to n=exp(0.19y1960) Dickerson’s law predicted 14,201 solved crystal structures by 2002. The actual number (in online Protein Data Bank (PDB)) was 14,250. Just 49 more. Macroscopically, the curve has been quite consistent.

95. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Many Tech Capacity Growth Rates Are Independent of Socioeconomic Cycles There are many natural cycles: Plutocracy-Democracy, Boom-Bust, Conflict-Peace… Ray Kurzweil first noted that a generalized, century-long Moore’s Law was unaffected by the U.S. Great Depression of the 1930’s. Conclusion: Human-discovered, Not human-created complexity here. Not many intellectual or physical resources are required to keep us on the accelerating developmental trajectory. (“MEST compression is a rigged game.”) Age of Spiritual Machines, 1999

96. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org IT’s Exponential Economics Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net

97. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Our 2002 service to manufacturing labor ratio, 110 million service to 21 million goods workers, is 4.2:1 Automation and the Service Society

98. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Angus Maddison’s Phases of Capitalist Development, 1982* *Also Pentti Malaska’s Funnel Model of Societal Transition, 1989/03 Network/Services/KM Society Society of Intangible Needs (“Weightless Economy”) Network 1.0 “McJobs” & Service 65% of Jobs, 2000’s Network 2.0 New Middle Class 40% of Jobs, 2030’s Network 3.0 Consolidation Again 15% of Jobs, 2060’s Manufacturing/Information Society Society of Tangible Needs (“Property Economy”) Manufacturing 1.0 Exploitive Jobs 50% of Jobs, 1900’s Manufacturing 2.0 New Middle Class 35% of Jobs, 1950’s Manufacturing 3.0 Offshoring/Globalizing 14% of Jobs, 2000’s Agricultural Society Society of Basic Needs (“Food/Shelter Economy”) Agriculture 1.0 Subsistence Jobs 80% of Jobs, 1820’s Agriculture 2.0 Family Farms 50% of Jobs, 1920’s Agriculture 3.0 Corporate Farms 2% of Jobs, 1990’s

99. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Network Economy 1.0 Remittances (From Guest Workers in U.S. and Canada) Foreign Direct Investment (Corporate) NGO’s (Nonprofit Contribs) Government Aid (IMF, WB, G8, USAID) Q: Which is a larger monetary flow in Latin America today, the bottom-up green or the top-down purple column?

100. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Network Economy 1.0 Remittances (From Guest Workers in U.S. and Canada) Foreign Direct Investment (Corporate) NGO’s (Nonprofit Contribs) Government Aid (IMF, WB, G8, USAID) Q: Which is a larger monetary flow in Latin America today, the bottom-up green or the top-down purple column? A: Remittances, since 2003. This may be a permanent shift. Shows what could happen in Africa, Russia, and other continually emigrating (“brain drain”) nations. Future of Philanthropy, GBN, 2005

101. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Tools for Networking 1.0: Social Network Analysis Note the linking nodes in these “small world” (not scale free) networks. “Chains of Affection,” Bearman & James Moody, AJS V110 N1, Jul 2004

102. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Networking Books Linked, Albert-Laszlo Barabasi, 2003 Six Degrees, Duncan Watts, 2003

103. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Create Your Own Network: Consider Ben Franklin’s Junto Met every Friday. The group invented: – the first subscription library in North America – the most advanced volunteer fire department – the first public hospital in Pennsylvania, – an insurance company, a constabulary, – improved streetlights, paving – the University of Pennsylvania. Broad Interests, Narrow Tasks. – Scientist – Inventor – Businessman – Statesman

104. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org The Voluntary Future Lifetime hours trends:188019952040 Total Available (after eating, sleeping, etc.) 225,900298,500321,900 Worked to earn a living182,100122,40075,900 Balance for Leisure and Voluntary Work 43,800176,100246,000 Prediction: Great increase in voluntary activities. Culture, entertainment, travel, education, wellness, nonprofit service, humanitarian and development work, the arts, etc. Source: The Fourth Great Awakening and the Future of Egalitarianism, 2000, Robert Fogel (Nobel-prize-winning economist, founder of the field of cliometrics, the study of economic history using statistical and mathematical models)

105. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Many Accelerations are either: 1) Underwhelming or 2) Logistic (“S” curves) Some Underwhelming Exponentials: Productivity per U.S. worker hr has improved 500% over 75 years (1929-2004, 2% per yr) Business investment as % of U.S. GDP is flat at 11% over 25 years. Nondefense R&D spending as % of First World GDP is up 30% (1.6 to 2.1%) over 21 years (1981-2002). Technology spending as % of U.S. GDP is up 100% (4% to 8%) over 35 years (1967-2002) BusinessWeek, 75 th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10.11.2004

106. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Saturation Example 1: Total World Population Positive feedback loop: Agriculture, Colonial Expansion, Economics, Scientific Method, Industrialization, Politics, Education, Healthcare, Information Technologies, etc.

107. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org So What Stopped the Growth?

108. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Saturation Example 2: Total World Energy Use DOE/EIA data shows total world energy use growth rate peaked in the 1970’s. Real and projected growth is progressively flatter since. Saturation factors: 1. Major conservation after OPEC (1973) 2. Stunning energy efficiency of each new generation of technological system 3. Saturation of human population and human needs for tech transformation Royal Dutch/Shell notes that energy use declines dramatically proportional to per capita GDP in all cultures. Steve Jurvetson notes (2003) the DOE estimates solid state lighting (eg. the organic LEDs in today's stoplights) will cut the world's energy demand for lighting in half over the next 20 years. Lighting is approximately 20% of energy demand. Expect such MEST efficiencies in energy technology to be multiplied dramatically in coming years. Technology is becoming more energy- effective in ways very few of us currently understand.

109. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Global Energy Use Saturation: Energy Consumption Per Capita When per capita GDP reaches: $3,000 – energy demand explodes as industrialization and mobility take off, $10,000 – demand slows as the main spurt of industrialization is completed, $15,000 – demand grows more slowly than income as services dominate economic growth and basic household energy needs are met, $25,000 – economic growth requires little additional energy. Later developers, using “leapfrogging technologies”, require far less time and energy to reach equivalent GDP. Energy Needs, Choices, and Possibilities: Scenarios to 2050, Shell Intnat’l, 2001

110. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Accelerating Ephemeralization and the Increasingly Weightless Economy In 1981 (Critical Path), Fuller called ephemeralization, "the invisible chemical, metallurgical, and electronic production of ever-more-efficient and satisfyingly effective performance with the investment of ever-less weight and volume of materials per unit function formed or performed". In Synergetics 2, 1983, he called it "the principle of doing ever more with ever less weight, time and energy per each given level of functional performance” This trend has also been called “virtualization,” “weightlessness,” and Matter, Energy, Space, Time (MEST) compression, efficiency, or density. In 1938 (Nine Chains to the Moon), poet and polymath Buckminster Fuller coined "Ephemeralization,” positing that in nature, "all progressions are from material to abstract" and "eventually hit the electrical stage. " (e.g., sending virtual bits to do physical work) Due to principles like superposition, entanglement, negative waves, and tunneling, the world of the quantum (electron, photon, etc.) appears even more ephemeral than the world of collective electricity.

111. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Empire Progression: An Undeniable West-East Trajectory American Japan (Temporary: Pop density, Few youth, no resources. East Asian Tigers (Taiwan Hong Kong South Korea Singapore) India China Expect a Singapore-style “Autocratic Capitalist” transition. Population control, plentiful resources, stunning growth rate, drive, and intellectual capital. U.S. science fairs: 50,000 high school kids/year. Chinese science fairs: 6,000,000 kids/year. For now. BHR-1, 2002

112. 8. Twenty Year Scenarios

113. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org The Symbiotic Age A coevolution between Saturating Humans and Accelerating Technology: A time when computers “speak our language.” A time when our technologies are very responsive to our needs and desires. A time when humans and machines are intimately connected, and always improving each other. A time when we will begin to feel “naked” without our computer “clothes.”

114. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org With the advent of the transistor (June 1, 1948), the commercial digital world emerged. New problems have emerged (population, human rights, asymmetric conflict, environment), yet we see solutions for each in coming waves of technological globalization. “The human does not change, but our house becomes exponentially more intelligent.” We look back not to Spencer or Marx and their human-directed Utopias, but to Henry Adams, who realized the core acceleration is due to the intrinsic properties of technological systems. The Start of Symbiosis: The Digital Era Michael Riordan, Crystal Fire, 1998

115. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org An ICT Attractor: The Conversational User Interface (CUI) Google’s cache (2002) As we watch Windows 2004 become Conversations 2020… Convergence of Infotech and Sociotech

116. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Why Will Most of Us Want to Use An “Agent Interface/Digital Twin” in 2020? “Working with Phil” in Apple’s Knowledge Navigator Ad, 1987 Ananova, 2002

117. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Social Software, Lifelogs Gmail preserves, for the first time, everything we’ve ever typed. Gmailers are all bloggers (who don’t know it). Next, some of us will store everything we’ve ever said. Then everything we’ve ever seen. This storage (and processing, and bandwidth) makes us all networkable in ways we never dreamed. Lifeblog, SenseCam, What Was I Thinking, and MyLifeBits (2003) are early examples of “LifeLogs.” Systems for auto-archiving and auto-indexing all life experience. Add NLP, collaborative filtering, and other early AI to this, and data begins turning into wisdom.

118. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org The Valuecosm Microcosm, Telecosm (Gilder) Datacosm (Sterling) Valuecosm (Smart) Recording and Publishing DT Preferences Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us Mapping Positive Sum Social Interactions Much Potential For Early Abuse (Advice) Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable) Early Examples: Social Network Media

119. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin) Greg Panos (and Mother) PersonaFoundation.org “I would never upload my consciousness into a machine.” “I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life for my children.” Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050, your digital mom will be “50% her.” When your best friend dies in 2080, your digital best friend will be “80% him.” Successive approximation, seamless integration, subtle transition. When you can shift your own conscious perspective between your electronic and biological components, the encapsulation and transcendence of the biological may begin to feel like only growth, not death. We wouldn’t have it any other way.

120. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org In the long run, we become seamless with our machines. No other credible long term futures have been proposed. “Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI) Personality Capture

121. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org AI-in-the-Interface (a.k.a. “IA”) AI is growing, but slowly (KMWorld, 4.2003) ― $1B in ’93 (mostly defense), $12B in 2002 (now mostly commercial). AGR of 12% ― U.S., Asia, Europe equally strong ― Belief nets, neural nets, expert sys growing faster than decision support and agents ― Incremental enhancement of existing apps (online catalogs, etc.) Computer telephony (CT) making strides (Wildfire, Booking Sys, Directory Sys). ASR and TTS improve. Expect dedicated DSPs on the desktop after central CT. (Circa 2010-15?) Coming: Linguistic User Interface (LUI) Persuasive Computing, and Personality Capture

122. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Human-Competitive Machine Intelligence: Automated Trading Comes of Age As of 2005, automated computer trading models (algorithmic, black box, and program trading) now execute more than half of all U.S. stock trades. From 2003 to 2005, Banc of America Securities LLC let go of half their human traders, while increasing trading volume 160%. BusinessWeek, 4.18.2005 All major brokers are spending millions on this technology. Minor brokers coming next. We are now seeing the beginning of the AI Age in the financial community.

123. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Longer Term Scenario: Solar Energy Twenty to fifty year development horizon. 5-10% efficiencies at present. Need 50%. Need great, cheap energy storage systems.

124. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Ubiquitous Sensing, Geospatial Web, and Accelerating Public Transparency Hitachi’s mu-chip: RFID for paper currency David Brin’s “Panopticon” The Transparent Society, 1998

125. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Q1: Which apps have been discussed? a. Border monitoring b. City monitoring c. Urban broadband d. Early warning radar Balloon Satellites: Disruptive Tech? Inventor: Hokan Colting 21stCenturyAirships.com 180 feet diameter. Autonomous. 60,000 feet (vs. 22,000 miles) Permanent geosynch. location. Onboard solar and navigation. A “quarter sized” receiver dish. MEST Compression as a Developmental Attractor: Don’t Bet Against It! Q2: Why are satellites presently failing against the wired world? Latency, bandwidth, launch costs. MEST compression always wins.

126. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Tomorrow’s Fastspace: User-Created 3D Persistent Worlds Future Salon in Second Life Streaming audio for main speaker, chat for others. Streaming video added 2005. Cost: $10 for life + fast graphics card ($180)

127. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org U.S. Transcontinental Railroad: Promontory Point Fervor The Network of the 1880’s Built mostly by hard- working immigrants

128. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org IT Globalization (2000-2020): Promontory Point Revisited The more things change, the more some things stay the same. The intercontinental internet will be built primarily by hungry young programmers and tech support personnel in India, Asia, third-world Europe, Latin America, and other developing economic zones. In coming decades, such individuals will outnumber the First World technical support population between five- and ten-to-one. Consider what this means for the goals of U.S. business and education: Global management, partnerships, and collaboration.

129. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Information Age: Staggered Closing of Global Divides Digital divide is already closing fast. 77% of the world now has access to a telephone*. Innovation leader: Grameen Telecom Income divide may be closing the next fastest. First world plutocracy still increasing, but we are already “rationalizing” global workforce wages in the last decade*. Education divide may close next (post-CUI) Power divide likely to close last. Political change is the slowest of all domains. *World Bank, 2005

130. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org New Business IA/Social Network Idea: 24/7 Affordable Tech Education From Geek Squad to Global Computer Helpers 80 million smart, underemployed tech workers, working at a salary of $1,400/year (China, India) + 140 million U.S. labor force (2000). + Exponentiating capabilites of our IT systems + Commodity communications costs + PC transparency software (Gotomypc) + Trust (Privacy) = 24/7 Tech Education How soon? Watch Dell…

131. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Our Generation’s Theme First World Saturating Third World Uplifting

132. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org The Pentagon’s New Map A New Global Defense Paradigm

133. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Shrinking the Disconnected Gap The Computational “Ozone Hole”

134. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Robo sapiens AIST and Kawada’s HRP-2 (Something very cool about this algorithm…) “Huey and Louey” Aibo Soccer

135. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org A Prediction: The Sputnik of Networking 2.0 Society Sputnik (1957)Humbot 0.1 (2005)Humbot 1.0 (2025) U.S.-Surpassing Space/Defense Tech U.S. Soldier-Enhancing Security/Warfighting Tech Global Soldier-Surpassing Security/Policing Tech Q: Will the U.S. national security sector supply the world with Humbot 1.0? This is an important strategic uncertainty at present. The choice is ours.

136. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org A Networking 2.0 Strategic Proposal: Innovate, Collaborate, and “Fight for 40%” IBM-Lenovo (Chinese Computer Company) laptop deal. IBM retains 18% ownership. Is this a true innovation partnership? We can make the deal so interdependent that it must be. Technology interdependence runs ahead of corporate interdependence which then leads political interdependence today globally. (Not usually the reverse).

137. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Our Greatest Strategic Interest: Managing Globalization “America has had 200 years to invent, regenerate, and calibrate the balance that keeps markets free without becoming monsters. We have the tools to make a difference. We have the responsibility to make a difference. And we have a huge interest in making a difference. Managing globalization is… our overarching national interest today and the political party that understands that first… will own the real bridge to the future.” Thomas Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization (2000).

138. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Globalization Management Backlash forces have to be kept in check by: Global tech innovation and diffusion Global economic growth Global political accountability transparency fair policies minimal government (maximizing tech and economic development) security

139. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Interdependency/Development Metrics Core Countries – Tech, Econ, Cultural Exchange Bandwidth – Guest Worker Programs/Visa Reform Gap Countries – Child and Infant Mortality Rates (Lagging Indicators) “The primary global currencies by which the “quick and privileged” negotiate change with the “slower and deprived” (Pete Lantz) – Infrastructure – Information Access (Culturally Appropriate)

140. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org S-Curves and Creative Destruction New Old Europe (Network 1.0) Newly Creatively Destructive Spain’s Recent Creation of Two- Tier Workforce. “McJobs” Under 40). (20  5% Unemployment) Ireland, New E.U. (10 on flat tax) New Asia (Network 1.0) Very High CD Index Taiwan, Hong Kong, China, Korea, Singapore, Malaysia, India, Vietnam, etc. United States (Network 0.8) 50% CD Index 50% of top 25 companies no longer top after 25 years. We are IT-challenged vs. Asia Japan (Network 1.0) Old Europe (Mfg 3.0) Low/Very Low CD Index Germany (13% unemployment) Italy (11% unemployment) France (10% unemployment)

141. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Taiwan’s Example Taiwan has one of the highest degrees of economic creative destruction in the world. Taiwan owns 46,000 contract factories in China (mutually assured economic destruction). Taiwan has become the IT hardware manufacturing capital of the world. Tamkang U. in Taiwan requires its university undergraduates to take courses in Futures Studies. (Coincidence?)

142. 9. Developing Tomorrow’s Medical Toolkit

143. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Digging the Data Mine: Epidemiology Greg Cole, UCLA, noticed: 1. Asian Indians have 25% of U.S. Alzheimer’s rates, but often equivalent heart disease. 2. Curcumin, the lipophilic dye in Turmeric (Indian curry spice) looks like Congo Red (which binds to Amyloid plaques. Result: The most exciting new potential Alzheimer’s therapy in a decade. "Curcumin inhibits formation of amyloid beta oligomers and fibrils, binds plaques, and reduces amyloid in vivo.," Yang F, Cole GM, etc., J Biol Chem 2005 Feb 18; 280(7):5892-5901

144. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Globalized Health Care When will we see the first HMO willing to fly its patients globally for procedures? To train international physicians in a global health care network? International ‘medical tourism’ is already a booming industry. In vitro fert. in Israel: $12K vs. 90K in US Heart surgery in India: $20K vs. 200K And outcomes are often even better! (higher volume, more specialization). There are huge political barriers but major opportunities as well. 4G Web: Personalized physician access 24/7, moving to preventative medicine finally. Kaiser? Subspecialty HMO leader.

145. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org Innovation and IP Balance: Lessons of Bose and Microvision Innovation diffusion prevented due to overly restrictive IP policy (often due to philosophy of a single individual controlling the corporation).

146. Los Angeles New York Palo Alto © 2006 Accelerating.org The New Paradigm: Out of (Individual) Control. The Wisdom of the (Well Organized) Crowd.

147. 10. Group Discussion