1. Building Core Concepts with Computational Software Robert H. Carver Stonehill College Easton MA August 9, 2004

2. JSM Toronto Session 1542 Core Concept Candidates Population Sample Variation Observation vs. Experiment Cross-section vs. longitudinal data Comparison Standardization Probability “Random” Random sampling “Error” Sampling error Statistical control Confidence Distribution Null hypothesis Association Causation Statistical significance vs. Practical significance Power Model

3. August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session 1543 Concepts for this segment Variation Statistical control Sampling Error

4. August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session 1544 ASQ on Statistical Thinking All work occurs in a system of interconnected processes Variation exists in all processes Understanding and reducing variation are keys to success

5. August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session 1545 A tale of continuous improvement… Wright 1904 Flyer over Huffman Prairie, Dayton OH

6. August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session 1546 Wilbur Wright on Control, 1901 “This inability to balance and steer still confronts students of the flying problem…. “When this one feature has been worked out, the age of flying machines will have arrived, for all other difficulties are of minor importance.”

7. August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session 1547 Variation: What’s up with that?

8. August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session 1548 Mean flight velocity

9. August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session 1549 Shape—velocity & distance

10. August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session 15410 Comparison: assignable cause?

11. August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session 15411 Comparison: assignable cause?

12. August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session 15412 Control & shrinking variation

13. August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session 15413 Control

14. August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session 15414 Developing a feel for Sampling Error

15. August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session 15415 One-Sample T: Samp1, Samp2, Samp3, Samp4, Samp5, Samp6, Samp7,... Variable N Mean StDev SE Mean 95% CI Samp1 10 26.1458 7.0527 2.2303 (21.1006, 31.1910) Samp2 10 30.8669 16.0146 5.0643 (19.4107, 42.3231) Samp3 10 23.8366 8.6156 2.7245 (17.6734, 29.9998) Samp4 10 31.1267 7.6951 2.4334 (25.6220, 36.6315) Samp5 10 28.7766 8.6148 2.7242 (22.6139, 34.9393) Samp6 10 28.3671 8.2640 2.6133 (22.4554, 34.2788) Samp7 10 22.2507 9.6897 3.0642 (15.3191, 29.1823) Samp8 10 29.3899 7.5919 2.4008 (23.9590, 34.8208) Samp9 10 28.8168 11.0398 3.4911 (20.9194, 36.7142) Samp10 10 31.1217 22.3381 7.0639 (15.1420, 47.1014) Developing a feel for Sampling Error

16. August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session 15416 Guiding Principles Focus on reading the story in the data Rely on software to facilitate building the concepts Quick, interactive analysis to seize teachable moments Demonstration, discovery, iteration

17. August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session 15417 Sources American Statistical Association (2004). Curriculum Guidelines for Undergraduate Programs in Statistical Science. https://www.amstat.org/educationhttps://www.amstat.org/education Fisher, R.A. (1966). The Design of Experiments. (New York: Hafner) Garfield, J., Hogg, R., Schau, C., & Whittinghill, D. (2000). “Best Practices in Introductory Statistics,” draft position paper prepared for JSM 2000. Hoerl, R.W. & Snee, R.D. (2002). Statistical Thinking: Improving Business Performance. (Pacific Grove, CA: Duxbury) Jakab, P.L. & Young, R., eds. (2000). The Published Writings of Wilbur and Orville Wright. (Washington DC: Smithsonian) Kugler, C., Hagen, J. & Singer, F. (2003). “Teaching Statistical Thinking.” Journal of College Science Teaching, v32, No. 7, 434-439. McCarthy, P.J. (1957). Introduction to Statistical Reasoning (New York, McGraw-Hill) Moore, D.S. (1997). Statistics: Concepts and Controversies, 4 th Ed. (New York: W.H. Freeman) Phillips, J. L. Jr. (1992). How to think about statistics. (New York: W.H. Freeman) Salsburg, D. (2002). The Lady Tasting Tea. (New York: Owl Books) Tukey, J.W. (1971). Exploratory Data Analysis. (Reading MA: Addison Wesley). U.S. Centennial of Flight Commission (2003). Flight log: Huffman prairie, 1904. http://www.centennialofflight.gov/chrono/log/1904HuffmanPrairie.htm http://www.centennialofflight.gov/chrono/log/1904HuffmanPrairie.htm Utts, J. M. )1999). Seeing Through Statistics, 2 nd Ed. (Pacific Grove CA: Duxbury) Wallis, W. A. & Roberts, H. V. (1956). Statististics: A New Approach. (New York, Free Press.) Wright Redux Association (2001). Wright history. The Wright redux association. http://www.wrightredux.org/index.cfm?page=5 http://www.wrightredux.org/index.cfm?page=5

18. August 9, 2004JSM Toronto Session 15418 Contact Information Robert H. Carver Dept. of Business Administration Stonehill College Easton MA 02357 e-mail: rcarver@stonehill.edu Copies of slides and dataset available (after JSM) at: http://faculty.stonehill.edu/rcarver/index.htm