1. 6-1

2. Housekeeping Items
I have a few more replacement course outlines for those who weren’t here on Wednesday.
Any questions about the assignment instructions on the web site?
Anyone want to volunteer an answer to the question I sent out in the aftermath of our watching most of Home?
To reiterate, given the innumerable institutional and psychological obstacles to societies and individuals changing course, what are some hopeful examples of positive change and what seem to be the most effective strategies for effecting changing?

3. POPULATION ISSUES: Upon successfully completing this chapter, you will be able to
Assess the scope and historical patterns of human population growth
Evaluate how human population, affluence and technology affect the environment
Explain and apply the fundamental concepts of demography
Outline the concept of demographic transition
Describe how wealth and poverty, the status of women, and family planning affect population growth
Link population goals to sustainable development

4. Central Case: China’s one-child policy
“As you improve health in a society, population growth goes down. You know. I thought it was…before I learned about it, I thought it was paradoxical.”
– Bill Gates, Microsoft Corp.
In 1979, the government instituted a one-child policy, drastically decreasing the growth rate (now 0.5%)
Unintended consequences:
Killing female infants
Unbalanced sex ratio
Black-market trade in teenage girls

5. The Human Population at 7 Billion (and growing at 220,000 a day!)
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6. Human population: at 7 billion
Populations continue to rise in most countries
Particularly in developing nations
Although the rate of growth is slowing, we are still increasing in absolute numbers
How much is 7 billion?
It would take 30 years, counting once each second, to reach 1 billion

7. The human population is growing nearly as fast as ever
It took all of human history- after to reach 1 billion
In 1927 we reached 2 billion, and added the most recent billion in 12 years

8. The human population is growing nearly as fast as ever (cont’d)
At today’s 2.1% annual growth rate, the population will double in 33 years
If China’s rate had continued at 2.8%, it would have had 2 billion people in 2004.

9. Perspectives on human population have changed over time
1700s – more children meant more hands for agriculture, better support in old age and more labour for factory work
1766: Thomas Malthus – growing population is eventually checked by limits on births or increases in deaths
1968: Paul Ehrlich – population is growing too fast and must be controlled
Disastrous effects on the environment and human welfare

10. Perspectives on human population have changed over time (cont’d)
Ehrlich and other neo-Malthusians have argued that population is growing much faster than our ability to produce and distribute food and that population control is the only way to prevent:
Massive starvation
Environmental degradation
Civil strife

11. Is population growth really a “problem” today?
Population growth results from technology, sanitation, food
Death rates drop, but not birth rates
Some people say growth is no problem
New resources will replace depleted ones
But, some resources (i.e., biodiversity) are irreplaceable
Quality of life will suffer with unchecked growth
Less food, space, wealth per person

12. Is population growth really a “problem” today (cont’d)?
Sheldon Richman – humans find potential stuff and human intelligence turns it into resources
Humankind will always be able to save itself with a “technological fix”
Yet not all resources can be replaced or reinvented once they are depleted (e.g. extinct species, land)
Population growth is much more strongly correlated with poverty than with wealth

13. Is population growth really a “problem” today (cont’d)?
Policymakers believe growth increases economic, political, military strength
They offer incentives for more children
49% of European nations think their birth rates are too low (examples of other countries or jurisdictions who feel the same way?)
In non-European nations, only 12% feel their birth rates are too low

14. The Science Behind the Story
Mapping Our Population’s Environmental Impact
Burgeoning numbers of people are making heavy demands on Earth’s natural resources and ecosystem services
Humans are responsible for using up almost 24% (some say 40%) of the planet’s NPP – that’s one species out of 1.4 million known species and probably million total species
Direct harvesting of crops, timber, etc. account for most of this
Densely populated and heavily farmed regions such as India, Eastern China, and Europe show the greatest proportional use of NPP
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15. Population is one of several factors that affect the environment
The IPAT model: I = P x A x T x S
Our total impact (I) on the environment results from the interaction of population (P), affluence (A) and technology (T), with an added sensitivity (S) factor
Population = individuals need space and resources
Affluence = greater per capita resource use
Technology = increased exploitation of resources
Sensitivity = how sensitive an area is to human pressure

16. Sudden food & population decrease Pollution increase
Population is one of several factors that affect the environment (cont’d)
Status quo leads to
Sudden food & population decrease
Pollution increase
Sustainability leads to
Food & population stabilizing
Pollution decrease

17. Demography “Soft” vs. “crash” landing
Agribusiness companies like Monsanto use food/ population crunch as rationale for GMOs, etc.
Demography
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18. The environment has a carrying capacity for humans, as with all species
Demography: the application of population ecology principles to the study of statistical change in human populations
Environmental factors set limits on our population growth, and the environment has a carrying capacity for our species
Four significant periods of societal change appear to have fundamentally altered the human relationship with the environment

19. The environment has a carrying capacity for humans (cont’d)
Paleolithic period (Old Stone Age):
Use of fire as long as 1.5 million years ago
Shape and use of stones 2.5 million years ago, which helped proto-humans modify their environment
Little evidence about world populations at that time, but likely in the hundreds of thousands/ million or so at most
FIGURE 6.7

20. The environment has a carrying capacity for humans (cont’d)
Neolithic (New Stone Age):
Agricultural Revolution
10,000 to 12,000 years ago
Initiated a permanent change in the way humans relate to the natural environment
Made cities, trades, science, armies, and other aspects of modern culture possible
FIGURE 6.7

21. The environment has a carrying capacity for humans (cont’d)
Industrial Revolution:
Began in the mid – 1700s
A shift from rural life, animal-powered agriculture, and manufacturing by craftsmen, to an urban society powered by fossil fuels
Improvements in sanitation and medical technology
Enhanced agricultural production
FIGURE 6.7

22. The environment has a carrying capacity for humans (cont’d)
Medical-Technological Revolution:
Currently in the midst of modern medical and technological advancements
People live longer and healthier lives
Green Revolution – shift to modern agricultural practices, but with environmental consequences
FIGURE 6.7

23. Demography is the study of human population
Demographers study:
Population size
Density
Distribution
Age structure
Sex ratio
Rates of birth, death, immigration, and emigration

24. Demography is the study of human population (cont’d)
Population size - only one factor and does not tell the whole story
A population’s environmental impact depends on its density, distribution, and composition, as well as affluence, technology, and level of consumption

25. Demography is the study of human population (cont’d)
Humans are unevenly distributed around the globe
Highest population density is in temperate, subtropical, and tropical climates (any exceptions?)
Unpopulated areas tend to be environmentally sensitive (high S value in the IPAT equation)

26. Demography is the study of human population (cont’d)
Age structure important in predicting future dynamics of populations
Having many individuals in young age groups results in high reproduction and rapid population growth

27. China’s reproductive policy
weighing the issues
China’s reproductive policy
Consider the benefits as well as the problems associated with a reproductive policy such as China’s.
Should a government be able to enforce strict penalties for citizens who fail to abide by such a policy?
What alternatives can you suggest for dealing with the resource demands of a quickly growing population?
(What) is there a balance point between public interest and individual choice?

28. Demography is the study of human population (cont’d)
Sex Ratios can affect population dynamics
Naturally occurring sex ratios for humans slightly favour males (100 females born to 106 males)
In China, 120 boys were reported for 100 girls
Cultural gender preferences, combined with the government’s one-child policy, led to selective abortion of female fetuses
Had the undesirable social consequences of many single Chinese men
Teenage girls were kidnapped and sold as brides

29. Population change results from birth, death, immigration, and emigration
Whether a population grows, shrinks, or remains stable depends on:
Rates of birth, death, and migration
Birth and immigration add individuals
Death and emigration remove individuals
Crude birth rate (nativity or natality) = number of births per 1000 individuals
Crude death rate (mortality) = number of deaths per 1000 individuals

30. Population change results from birth, death, immigration, and emigration
Technological advances led to dramatic decline in human death rates widening the gap between crude birth rates and crude death rates and resulting in population expansion
Growth rates in many countries have been declining, even without population control policies
Decline due in part from a steep drop in birth rates

31. Population change results from birth, death, immigration, and emigration

32. Total fertility rate influences population growth
Total fertility rate (TFR) = average number of children born per female member of a population during her lifetime
Replacement fertility = the TFR that keeps the size of a population stable

33. Total fertility rate influences population growth (cont’d)
Increasing urbanization decreases TFR
Children go to school, and increase costs
With social security, elderly parents need fewer children to support them
Greater education allows women to enter the labor force, with less emphasis on child rearing

34. Consequences of low fertility?
weighing the issues
Consequences of low fertility?
In Canada, the United States, and every European nation, the total fertility rate has now dipped below replacement fertility rate.
What economic, social, or environmental consequences – positive or negative – do you think might result from below-replacement fertility rates?

35. Some nations have experienced the demographic transition
Natural rate of population change = due to birth and death rates alone
In countries with good sanitation, health care, and food, people live longer
Life expectancy = average number of years that an individual is likely to continue to live
Increased due to reduced rates of infant mortality
Urbanization, industrialization, and personal wealth

36. Some nations have experienced the demographic transition (cont’d)
Demographic transition = a model of economic and cultural change to explain the declining death and birth rates in industrializing nations
high birth and death rates change to low birth and death rates
As mortality decreases, there is less need for large families
Parents invest in quality of life

37. Some nations have experienced the demographic transition (cont’d)
Population growth is seen as a temporary phenomenon

38. Is the demographic transition a universal process?
It has occurred in Europe, U.S., Canada, Japan, and other nations over the past years
But, it may or may not apply to all developing nations
The transition could fail in cultures that
place greater value on childbirth
grant women fewer freedoms
For people to attain the material standard of living of North Americans, we would need the natural resources of four and a half more Earths

39. Population and Society
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40. The status of women greatly affects population growth rates
2010: 55% of married women (aged 15-49) worldwide reported using modern contraception to plan / prevent pregnancy
Social empowerment of women reduces unintended pregnancy
Increasing female literacy, not to mention increased employment, is strongly associated with reduced birth rates

41. The status of women greatly affects population growth rates (cont’d)
Increasing female literacy is strongly associated with reduced birth rates in many nations

42. Population policies and family-planning programs are working
These policies lower population growth rates in all types of nations
Programs for population control:
India – incentives for a “two-child norm”
Thailand – family planning education and increased availability of contraceptives
1994: U.N. platform for governments to offer universal access to reproductive health care within 20 years. During its chairmanship of the G8, Canada introduced a policy but refused to include a family planning component.

43. Current state of women’s reproductive health
According to research accessed by the Canadian Labour Congress
Approximately 215 million women who want to avoid pregnancy are not able to access an effective method of modern contraception;
Only one-half of the 123 million women who give birth each year receive antenatal, delivery and newborn care from a doctor or midwife, or do not receive all components of the care they need;
Over half a million women, including adolescent girls, die due to complications during pregnancy and childbirth every year;
Approximately 20 million women have unsafe abortions each year. Three million women who experience complications caused by unsafe abortions do not receive medical attention. Approximately 68,000 women die each year due to unsafe abortions.

44. Population policies and family-planning programs are working (cont’d)
Blue = family planning accessible
Red = family planning not accessible

45. Poverty is strongly correlated with population growth
Poorer societies have higher growth rates than wealthier societies
Consistent with the demographic transition theory
They have higher fertility and growth rates, with lower contraceptive use
99% of the next billion people added will be born in poor, less developed regions that are least able to support them
Poverty often results in environmental degradation (e.g. soil degradation, hunting of large mammals)
While wealthier societies have a much bigger eco-footprint overall, poverty is not without its effects. Why?

46. Consumption from affluence creates environmental impacts
Affluent societies have enormous resource consumption and waste production
People use resources from other areas, as well as from their own
Individuals’ ecological footprints are huge
The addition of 1 Canadian to the world has as much environmental impact as 6 Chinese, or 12 Indians or Ethiopians, or 40 Somalians.

47. Consumption from affluence creates environmental impacts (cont’d)
Humanity’s global ecological footprint surpassed Earth’s capacity to support us in 1987

48. The wealth gap and population growth contribute to conflict
The richest 20% use 86% of the world’s resources
Which leaves 14% of the resources for 80% of the world’s people to share
Source: Bing

49. HIV/AIDS impacts African populations
2008: 33 million infected worldwide, two-thirds live in sub-Saharan Africa
Low rates of contraceptive use spread the disease
Also spreading in Caribbean, Southeast Asia, eastern Europe, central Asia
14 million children have lost one or both parents
Until recently, the Catholic Church forbade Africans to use condoms despite the HIV epidemic
Grandmothers’ initiative

50. Demographic change has social, economic, and environmental repercussions
Demographic fatigue = governments face overwhelming challenges related to population growth.
With the added of stress of HIV/AIDS; governments are stretched beyond their capabilities
Economies lose potentially productive workers who instead become a burden on their families
Problems grow worse

51. The U.N. has articulated sustainable development goals for humanity
Millennium Development Goals = by 2015 achieve goals for sustainable development
Does not include population control (any ideas why?)
Earth does not hold enough resources to sustain 7 billion of us at the North American standard of living

52. Conclusion
The human population is larger than at any time in the past (more people alive today than all the humans who have ever existed put together)
Growing population as well as growing consumption, affects the environment
Growth rate has decreased nearly everywhere
Progress has been made in expanding rights for women worldwide
How will the population stop rising?
Demographic transitions
Governmental intervention
Disease
Social conflict

53. QUESTION: Review
What has accounted for the majority of the world’s population growth in recent years?
a) Women are having more babies
b) Death rates have dropped due to technology, medicine, and food
c) More women are using contraceptives
d) Nothing, the population has dropped in recent years
Answer: b

54. QUESTION: Review
According to the I = P x A x T formula, what would happen if China’s 1 billion people had a lifestyle like Canadians?
a) Their population would automatically drop
b) Their population would automatically increase
c) Their affluence and technology would increase
d) Their impact on the environment would even out
Answer: c

55. QUESTION: Review
How have humans been able to raise the environment’s carrying capacity for our species?
a) Through technology
b) By eliminating limiting factors
c) Through increased consumption
d) Spending more money on non-essential resources
Answer: a

56. QUESTION: Review
Areas that lack significant numbers of people, and have a low population density are…
a) No longer available
b) Best able to support higher densities of people
c) Sensitive areas least able to support high densities of people
d) Located around tropical and grassland areas
Answer: c

57. QUESTION: Review
Describe the relationship between growth rates and population size.
a) Falling growth rates automatically mean a smaller population
b) Falling growth rates automatically mean a larger population
c) Falling growth rates means we no longer have a population problem
d) Falling growth rates does not mean a smaller population, but that rates of increase are slowing
Answer: d

58. QUESTION: Interpreting Graphs and Data
What happens during the “pre-industrial” stage of the demographic transition?
High birth and death rates rise cause population increases
High birth and death rates, but population is stable
High birth rates with low death rates cause population to increase
Low birth and death rates cause the population to decrease
Answer: b

59. QUESTION: Interpreting Graphs and Data
According to this age pyramid, Madagascar’s future population will be…?
a) Balanced
b) Larger
c) Much larger
Smaller
Much smaller
Answer: c

60. QUESTION: Interpreting Graphs and Data
According to these graphs, which countries had access to family planning?
a) Iraq and Pakistan
b) Malawi and Haiti
c) Malawi and Kenya
Kenya and Bangladesh
Answer: c