1. Congressional Elections
Held every 2 years
1/3 Senate (continuous body)
and all of the House of Rep.
Midterm & Presidential
Election years

2. Congressional Elections
Differ from presidential elections:
Congressional candidates tend to labor in obscurity
Vast majority of candidates are little-known state legislators
Name recognition is often the most important battle of the campaign
Generally they receive little media coverage

3. Incumbency Advantage Incumbents have:
Taxpayer funds that can enhance their profiles and prospects
Money to run an office
Franking privilege - free mass mailings
Constituency service - helping constituents unravel red tape

4. Highly visible in the district
Easy access to local media
Speak frequently at events and meetings
Reelection rates for incumbents in the House are above 90%.

5. Redistricting, Scandals and Coattails
Most likely reasons for losing reelection
After every census, the representation is reapportioned or redistributed
Number set at The Reapportionment Act of 1929
2010 Census resulted in Pa loosing one district - 18
The US grows – number of people each representative speaks for grows.

6. PA district map has to be redrawn from 19 voting districts to 18.
Party that controls the state legislature tries to gain political advantage in the redistricting process
Gerrymandering - districts
drawn with unusual shapes
Elbridge Gerry MA, looks
like a salamander.

10. Coattails
Incumbents can lose if a successful presidential candidate pulls his party along
Seems to be weakening in modern times
Local issues become more important than the status of Pres. or national issues

11. Midterm Elections Two to Six Year Itch
Can be used as indicator of Pres performance
Results of critical importance to incumbent president
Bush: victory resulted in weak mandate for his programs
1st months troubled

12. 2002 Midterm Elections Held after 9/11
Rallying around Pres. caused drift toward Republicans in Congress
Congress did not want to be seen putting obstacles in the way of the Commander-in Chief

13. 2004 Presidential Election
Republicans controlled House & Senate
Congress and President worked together
No guarantee Congress would be a rubber stamp

14. 2006 Midterm Elections Democrats retake Congress Senate:
House of Representatives:

15. Pennsylvania
No Coattail for Republicans
Exit Polls indicated voters looking for a new direction
Diplomatic solution to Iraq

16. 2008 Presidential Election
Democrats control House and Senate
Congress and President vow to work together
No guarantee Congress will be a rubber stamp
Health Care
War in Afghanistan

17. 2010 Midterm Election Issues
Wars
Health care
Economy / Jobs
Anger and anxiety propelled Republicans to sweeping takeover of House - new power structure
No Coattail effect

18. 2012?? Issues not changed much Strength of Republican candidate
Voter perception of Republican takeover in House and states - successful or not
More of the same ?

19. Unusual Situations 1998: Clinton had popular mandate as president
Republicans controlled the Congress
1956: Eisenhower Republican had popular mandate as president
Congress Democratic
Same for 1968 and 1972
Presidents had to work with a Congress that had a majority from the opposing party

20. Common for Pres. Party to lose out in Mid-Term Elections
Local issues tend to gather more importance in mid-term elections
General elections are more nationally focused
Normal Disillusionment with the party in power
Voters vote against pres party, check and balance

21. Pres. In Difficult Position
Support Congressmen in his party
May be associated with their failure
Has to work with the Congressional member who defeated his candidate
Doesn’t support
Morale of party may suffer

22. Midterm Election - 1998 Logic says Clinton should do poorly
Monica Lewinsky
Starr Inquiry re: Real Estate kickbacks
Opposite occurred
Public condemnation of private actions did not extend into his political domain
Rating level 63%

23. Congressional Elections: Voting
Popular Pres. May influence the turnout of voters in midterm elections
Little effect on the way people vote
Local issues become more important than the status of Pres. or national issues

24. Six Year Itch Quiz Test your historical knowledge.
Scroll down to “More News and Features”

25. Voting Behavior
Political Participation that develops through political socialization
Seven Amendments to the Constitution regarding voting

26. Voter Turnout Declining until 2008
Highest since % participation
Approx. 40% eligible voters (71% registered)
Increase of ~ 5 million voters since 2004
Eligible voter population increased ~ 9 million
Problem for democracy
25% of adult population votes “occasionally”
35% rarely or never vote

27. Power Given to the States
Criteria for voting:
age 18, citizen, registration
Some states make voting burdensome
Registration requirements, residency requirements
Jesse Ventura’s election partially due to same day registration

28. Factors Influencing Voting Behavior
Education - #1
More education, more likely to vote ~ 80%
Civic duty, understand the process, greater sense of control over own destiny
Income Levels
Socio-economic status
Higher levels - higher turnout rates
Professional occupations more likely to turnout
Opinions are respected due to status

29. Age Young tend not to vote (under 30) Seniors ~ 72%
49% registered voters voted in 2008
Seniors ~ 72%
participation decreased
1970-present participation has increased due to AARP
People living longer
Very active over the last few decades
Social Security, Healthcare

30. Race and Ethnicity Whites vote more regularly than African-Am.
2004: 60% / 55%; 2008: 64% / 65%
Income and education levels differ
South made voting difficult for African-Am resulting in low turnout rates p. 494, 13.5
15th Amendment not enforced - Voting Rights Act of 1965 banned all obstacles

31. Hispanic Americans large community
Voter turnout lower than African-Am.
% / 38%; 2008: 50% / 65%
Education, income levels and understanding of the system
Don’t trust the government
Don’t have control of what govt. does
Not going to benefit from election

32. Low Voter Turnout Too Busy #1 reason for not voting
Difficulty in Registering to vote
Not automatic - Individual effort
Residency requirements
Different from State to State
Not well advertised where to register and where to vote
Frequency of elections: US holds more than any other nation - every November

33. Voter Attitudes Not required to vote so why do so?
Satisfaction with status quo
Believe can not make a difference
Too much effort to keep up with issues or too difficult to understand them
Turned off by the quality of campaigns
Weak political parties or no difference is seen between the candidates

34. The Analysis of Voter Turnout
Voting Patterns
The Analysis of Voter Turnout

35. Voting Patterns in America
1996 general election- 49%
Lowest since 1924
Despite a record of 13 million new voters registering to vote in 1992
1960’s 63% turnout
Considered the “Kennedy Factor”

36. 19th Amendment of 1920 26th Amendment 1968 Women’s right to vote
Impact on elections took years before it was felt
26th Amendment 1968
Lowered age to 18
Less than 50% turned out for the general election

37. 1993 Motor Voter Act was passed
Voter apathy leaves decision making to the educated, white, middle/upper class voter.
1993 Motor Voter Act was passed
Effort to make procedure to register easier
Register to vote when applying for a driving license - not required -

38. An extra 5 million people registered to vote for the 1996 general election
Only about 50% of registered voters voted
Increase in African-Am. voters

39. Study on Voting Patterns
1984 election
92.6 million voted, 84 million did not
Finding of study:
20% Americans move each year and need to reregister in new location
Groups that traditionally helped with registration drives have decreased in influence - unions
Media: diluted grass-roots face-to-face politics and removed the “human touch”

40. 1972, 1984, 1996 - Seen as forgone conclusions - why vote?
2000 election seen as most open in decades - turnout 50%
Voting patterns for 2004 and 2008?

42. Voting Turnout Questions
How can the US improve voter turnout?
Does low voter turnout matter?
Does the process need reform?
WHO IS VOTING?