1. Forest Biometry, Modelling and Information Sciences (FBMIS) & the Forest Model Archive (FMA) Professor Keith Rennolls University of Greenwich

2. Stats and Models in Forestry Distant history – Germany… India Distant history – Germany… India Graphical methods for height-age, volume-age : Yield Tables Graphical methods for height-age, volume-age : Yield Tables Statistics: The Origins Statistics: The Origins Galton, Pearson, Yule Galton, Pearson, Yule Fisher 1925 …, Neyman-Pearson 1927, … Fisher 1925 …, Neyman-Pearson 1927, … Yates (Census of Woodlands, 1942) Yates (Census of Woodlands, 1942) … etc … … etc … Up to about 1965 … Up to about 1965 … IUFRO 6.02 The Advisory Group of Forest Statisticians Bertil Matern… Spatial Variation 1960 Bertil Matern… Spatial Variation 1960 John Jeffers… John Jeffers…. Experimental design and analysis in forest research 1960 1961 The electronic digital computer in forestry 1961 1962 Al Stage … TRAS growth simulation program 1962 Prodan… Forest Biometrics 1968 Prodan… Forest Biometrics 1968 Paul Schmid-Haas… Edge Effects 1969 Van Laar Growth modelling 1969 Joe Christie Yield Tables The Red book …continued

3. …continued After1970: The Modern Age. John Jeffers, J.N.R. (Ed). 1972. Mathematical models in ecology. Collier Dawkins’s Statforms 1975 Collier Dawkins’s Statforms 1975 Alder … Tropical forest models Alder … Tropical forest models Bill Warren … Spatial and Temporal models in Forestry Bill Warren … Spatial and Temporal models in Forestry Oscar Garcia … System-Dynamic Stand-Level Forest Models Oscar Garcia … System-Dynamic Stand-Level Forest Models Anniki Makela … Process Based Forest Modelling Anniki Makela … Process Based Forest Modelling Bob Monserud … Boreal and Temperate Forest Modelling, Bob Monserud … Boreal and Temperate Forest Modelling, PROGNOSIS and Forest-Vegetation-Simulator (FVS) PROGNOSIS and Forest-Vegetation-Simulator (FVS) Jerry VanClay … Tropical Forest Management Models Jerry VanClay … Tropical Forest Management Models … …Any many others… but currently probably only 200 Forest Biometricians, and possibly 400 in Mensuration Growth and Yield. …Quite specialized, quite small

4. Me & Forest Stats & Modelling Forestry Commission… Statistics Branch …Alice Holt 1976-1985 Forestry Commission… Statistics Branch …Alice Holt 1976-1985 First IUFRO 6.02 Conference 1978 Frieburg First IUFRO 6.02 Conference 1978 Frieburg Warren, Matern, Prodan, Ek, … Warren, Matern, Prodan, Ek, … About 1980…: Forest Modelling Discussion Group, FMDG. About 1980…: Forest Modelling Discussion Group, FMDG. IUFRO 6.02, 4.11, 4.01 Office holder since 1990 IUFRO 6.02, 4.11, 4.01 Office holder since 1990 IUFRO DSA (Div. 4) 2005 IUFRO DSA (Div. 4) 2005 EU FIMP Indonesia 1996… EU FIMP Indonesia 1996… Tropical Forest: modelling, inventory, remote sensing, biodiversity… Tropical Forest: modelling, inventory, remote sensing, biodiversity…

5. Forest Biometrics and Modelling Publication Outlets Forest Science Forest Science Canadian Journal of Forest Science Canadian Journal of Forest Science Forest Ecology and Management Forest Ecology and Management Remote Sensing of the Environment Remote Sensing of the Environment Ecological Modelling Ecological Modelling Tropical Forest Ecology Tropical Forest Ecology Journal of Ecology … Journal of Ecology … Biometrics Biometrics “Commonwealth” Forestry Review “Commonwealth” Forestry Review National Forestry Journals … e.g. Forestry National Forestry Journals … e.g. Forestry … Only ever about 1 in 10 or 20 on Forest Biometrics and Modelling. IUFRO 6.02, 4.11, 4.03 Conference Proceedings IUFRO 6.02, 4.11, 4.03 Conference Proceedings … Grey Literature … Grey Literature … “Black Hole” Literature? … “Black Hole” Literature?

6. IUFRO 4.11 Greenwich, 2001 Forest Biometry, Modelling and Information Science (FBMIS) The Call The Call The Call The Call Why Information Science(s)? Why Information Science(s)? 1. Fisher’s “Information Theory” 1. Fisher’s “Information Theory” The Basis of Modern Inferential Statistics The Basis of Modern Inferential Statistics 2. Shannon’s “InformationTheory” 2. Shannon’s “InformationTheory” A popular species diversity measure A popular species diversity measure 3. Information Systems 3. Information Systems Storing and managing data and information Storing and managing data and information 4 Information Science 4 Information Science Librarianship … concerned with catalogues, keys, and restricted vocabularies… metadata … ontologies Librarianship … concerned with catalogues, keys, and restricted vocabularies… metadata … ontologies 5. Forest Information Systems 5. Forest Information Systems Combining 3. and 4. : GFIS, EFIS, CFIS, NEFIS. … Combining 3. and 4. : GFIS, EFIS, CFIS, NEFIS. …

7. The FBMIS Proceedings The First IUFRO 4.11 web-proceedings The First IUFRO 4.11 web-proceedings The First IUFRO 4.11 web-proceedings The First IUFRO 4.11 web-proceedings Systems for Forest Information Conservation and Sharing (Chairs: Ibrahim and Paivenen) Risto Paivinen, Tim Richards, Nguyen Thanh Binh, Richard Wood, Margherita Sini (Invited paper) The IUFRO Global Forest Information Service The IUFRO Global Forest Information Service The IUFRO Global Forest Information Service Towards a Common Resource. Patrick D. Miles. USDA FS, St. Paul. Information Systems for the Forest Resource Analyst. Information Systems for the Forest Resource Analyst Information Systems for the Forest Resource Analyst Keith Rennolls, Moh Ibrahim and Peter Smith. University of Greenwich. A Forest Model Archive? A Forest Model Archive? A Forest Model Archive? Nell Baker and Howard Wright. University of Oxford The UK Archive of Tropical Forest Inventory The UK Archive of Tropical Forest Inventory The UK Archive of Tropical Forest Inventory (ATROFI): conserving the data. (ATROFI): conserving the data.

8. The Forest Model Archive (FMA) The FMA – a web portal : www.forestmodelarchive.info The FMA – a web portal : www.forestmodelarchive.info The FMA – a web portal The FMA – a web portal The Full FMA Standards Specification The Full FMA Standards Specification The resources associated with a fully documented model in FMA are expected to include the following as the adopted STANDARD: A description of the theory of the model A listing of the code for the model algorithm The fitting criterion used The fitting algorithm used Test data, with metadata The results of fitting the model to the test data using the fitting algorithm A new way to publish models A new way to publish models

9. The FMA Aims To Conserve Forest Models To Conserve Forest Models To Enable easy re-use of Forest Models To Enable easy re-use of Forest Models Even for non-experts Even for non-experts Especially for the Developing World Especially for the Developing World A latter-day Stat-forms? A latter-day Stat-forms? To Foster new forest model development To Foster new forest model development Particularly for Tropical Forests Particularly for Tropical Forests For Remote-Sensing based Inventories For Remote-Sensing based Inventories To Allow easy comparison of Models To Allow easy comparison of Models On standard datasets On standard datasets On new datasets On new datasets To Facilitate the building of new Hybrid models from previous models To Facilitate the building of new Hybrid models from previous models To Engender international forest modelling collaboration To Engender international forest modelling collaboration

10. FMA “Challenges” Modellers prefer to model rather than re-use another modeller’s model. Modellers prefer to model rather than re-use another modeller’s model. There is no kudos in re-use There is no kudos in re-use Many of the established BIG Models have their own well supported web sites Many of the established BIG Models have their own well supported web sites FMA building is time-consuming and needs funding … FMA building is time-consuming and needs funding … not easy! not easy! FMA construction does not rate for RAE! FMA construction does not rate for RAE! Only publications, funding and PhDs do. Only publications, funding and PhDs do. An “Archive” as merely a repository of “dead models” does not capture its potential future contribution. An “Archive” as merely a repository of “dead models” does not capture its potential future contribution. Something is needed in addition to indicate that the FMA is “State of the Art” Something is needed in addition to indicate that the FMA is “State of the Art”

11. FBMIS: the e-journal (FBM & Information Sciences !) ‘Parents’: ‘Parents’: Absence of a Specialized Forest Biometrics and Modelling publication outlet Absence of a Specialized Forest Biometrics and Modelling publication outlet The FBMIS Conference Proceedings The FBMIS Conference Proceedings All the “Black-Hole” Proceedings of the past All the “Black-Hole” Proceedings of the past The FMA The FMA FBMIS: www.fbmis.info FBMIS: www.fbmis.info FBMIS

12. FBMIS 2003-4 OSCAR GARCIA Dimensionality Reduction in Growth Models: an example. OSCAR GARCIA Dimensionality Reduction in Growth Models: an example. ALMUTH WAMELING & JOACHIM SABOROWSKI Construction of Local Confidence Intervals for Contour Lines. ALMUTH WAMELING & JOACHIM SABOROWSKI Construction of Local Confidence Intervals for Contour Lines. GEORGE GERTNER GEORGE GERTNER Assessment of Computationally Intensive Spatial Statistical Methods for Generating Inputs for Spatially Explicit Error Budgets. Assessment of Computationally Intensive Spatial Statistical Methods for Generating Inputs for Spatially Explicit Error Budgets. ROBERT A. MONSERUD Evaluating Forest Models in a Sustainable Forest Management Context. ROBERT A. MONSERUD Evaluating Forest Models in a Sustainable Forest Management Context. Special Invited Paper JOE LANDSBERG (Biography) Physiology in forest models: history and the future Special Invited Paper JOE LANDSBERG (Biography) Physiology in forest models: history and the futureBiography Special Invited Paper TASITI SUZUKI (Biography) Gentan Probability and the Concept of the Normal Wood in the Wide Sense Special Invited Paper TASITI SUZUKI (Biography) Gentan Probability and the Concept of the Normal Wood in the Wide SenseBiography Special Invited Paper JOHN JEFFERS (Biography) Whither biometrics? Special Invited Paper JOHN JEFFERS (Biography) Whither biometrics?Biography ANDREW P. ROBINSON, AMY L. POCEWICZ, and PAUL E. GESSLER A Cautionary note on Scaling Variables that appear only in Products in Ordinary Least Squares ANDREW P. ROBINSON, AMY L. POCEWICZ, and PAUL E. GESSLER A Cautionary note on Scaling Variables that appear only in Products in Ordinary Least Squares NICOLAS PICARD and ALAIN FRANC Approximating spatial interactions in a model of forest dynamics. NICOLAS PICARD and ALAIN FRANC Approximating spatial interactions in a model of forest dynamics. JEROME K VANCLAY Indicator Groups and Faunal Richness. JEROME K VANCLAY Indicator Groups and Faunal Richness.

13. FBMIS “Challenges”? The “Challenges” for the FBMIS The “Challenges” for the FBMIS E-journals are not recognized as fully archival by some authorities E-journals are not recognized as fully archival by some authorities The main-stream journals have no publication charge The main-stream journals have no publication charge All the main journals are now on-line All the main journals are now on-line FBMIS needs a funding line … currently there is a publication charge of £150 FBMIS needs a funding line … currently there is a publication charge of £150 Sponsorship is needed Sponsorship is needed Managing and Editing a journal is time-consuming Managing and Editing a journal is time-consuming There is relatively little RAE credit for doing so. There is relatively little RAE credit for doing so.

14. FBMIS Future? New Developments: New Developments: Special Issues… for IUFRO 4.01 conferences? Special Issues… for IUFRO 4.01 conferences? Web-conferences? Web-conferences? Index to On-line Biometrician Personal Archives? Index to On-line Biometrician Personal Archives? e.g. Oscar Garcia & Jerry VanClay e.g. Oscar Garcia & Jerry VanClay Future Home, after Greenwich? Future Home, after Greenwich? A main-stream publisher? A main-stream publisher? Other Institutions or Individuals? Other Institutions or Individuals? IUFRO? FAO? CABI? IUFRO? FAO? CABI?

15. FMA & FBMIS final view The FMA was the ‘parent’ of FBMIS The FMA was the ‘parent’ of FBMIS The FMA is now the ‘brother’ of FBMIS The FMA is now the ‘brother’ of FBMIS FBMIS as a journal is archival by nature FBMIS as a journal is archival by nature The FMA is archival, but not only archival The FMA is archival, but not only archival The FMA is a publication venue of a multiple dimensions, with great creative potential The FMA is a publication venue of a multiple dimensions, with great creative potential Maybe the future should be an FBMIS Portal, Maybe the future should be an FBMIS Portal, encompassing both the FBMIS e-journal, and the FMA?