2. Date: 15-Aug-15 Unit 1 Global Challenges Uncertainties predicting Climate Change and impacts Uncertainties predicting Climate Change and impacts

3. Date: 15-Aug-15 Unit 1 Global Challenges http://www.stopglobalwarming.com.au/global_warming_future_impacts_policy.html

4. Date: 15-Aug-15 Unit 1 Global Challenges Enquiry Question Spec What are the impacts of climate change and why should we be concerned? The impacts of climate change are difficult to predict and emission scenarios, such as the IPCC model may vary from “business as usual” to sustainable and could be affected by attempts to manage the impacts of climate change.

5. Date: 15-Aug-15 Unit 1 Global Challenges

9. Carbon Sinks A carbon sink is a natural or manmade reservoir that accumulates and stores some carbon-containing chemical compound for an indefinite period. The main natural sinks are: Absorption of carbon dioxide by the oceans Photosynthesis by plants and algae The main manmade sinks are: Landfills Carbon capture and storage proposals The process by which carbon sinks remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere is known as CO 2 sequestration or carbon sequestration. Public awareness of the significance of CO 2 sinks has grown since passage of the Kyoto Protocol, which promotes their use as a form of carbon offset. Kyoto Protocol Because growing vegetation absorbs carbon dioxide, the Kyoto Protocol allows countries with large areas of forest (or other vegetation) to deduct a certain amount from their emissions, thus making it easier for them to achieve the desired net emission levels. Some countries seek to trade emission rights in carbon emission markets, purchasing the unused carbon emission allowances of other countries.

10. Date: 15-Aug-15 Unit 1 Global Challenges Agenda 21 This is a programme run by the United Nations (UN) related to sustainable development. It is a comprehensive blueprint of action to be taken globally, nationally and locally by organizations of the UN, governments, and major groups in every area in which humans impact on the environment. Section I: Social and Economic Dimensions Includes combating poverty, changing consumption patterns, population and demographic dynamics, promoting health, promoting sustainable settlement patterns and integrating environment and development into decision-making. Section II: Conservation and Management of Resources for Development Includes atmospheric protection, combating deforestation, protecting fragile environments, conservation of biological diversity (biodiversity), and control of pollution.biodiversity Section III: Strengthening the Role of Major Groups Includes the roles of children and youth, women, NGOs, local authorities, business and workers. Section IV: Means of Implementation Includes science, technology transfer, education, international institutions and mechanisms and financial mechanisms. Local Agenda 21 The implementation of Agenda 21 was intended to involve action at international, national, regional and local levels. Some national and state governments have legislated or advised that local authorities take steps to implement the plan locally.

11. Date: 15-Aug-15 Unit 1 Global Challenges http://www.ipcc.ch/

12. Date: 15-Aug-15 Unit 1 Global Challenges The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Formed 1988 – World Meteorological Organisation & United Nations Environment Programme. Collected evidence during the 1990s which showed global warming is really happening. To do this it Collected data about the atmosphere Observed sea levels and the extent of the ice at poles and at glaciers in mountain regions. Measured greenhouse gas concentration (e.g. CO 2 ) Used super-computers to try and predict what impacts global warming might have. Using its data, the IPCC has attempted to predict possibilities or scenarios regarding greenhouse gas emissions. Each is uncertain but helps to predict the future by considering how the governments might act. A1 Scenario A2 Scenario B1 Scenario B2 Scenario

13. Date: 15-Aug-15 Unit 1 Global Challenges IS92a – business as usual » p 50-51 Pearson » Emission scenarios

14. Date: 15-Aug-15 Unit 1 Global Challenges

21. A2 Scenario Example Absolute change in mean annual temperature between control period 1961-1990 and 2071-2100, under the IPCC SRES scenario A2. Data from EC-funded project Prudence (HadCM3 global circulation model, and HIRHAM regional climate model in 12km resolution), map elaboration by EC JRC/IES.

22. Date: 15-Aug-15 Unit 1 Global Challenges GIS at local scale

23. Date: 15-Aug-15 Unit 1 Global Challenges http://www.ucar.edu/news/features/climatechange/multimedia.jsp Lectures Slides Webcasts

24. Date: 15-Aug-15 Unit 1 Global Challenges Why the uncertainty? Predictions of emissions levels and their impacts are difficult, because its is hard to predict the following: The level and nature of economic devlopment, particularly in countries like India and China, which will determine greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions What degree of international action will be taken to reduce emissions The inertia in the system – even if GHG emissions stabilise, climate change will continue The impact of positive feedback, for example as permafrost areas thaw due to global warming the powerful GHG methane will be releases, increasing global warming still further

25. Date: 15-Aug-15 Unit 1 Global Challenges Read p 59-63….Read p 59-63…. Is the world more hazardous?