We think you have liked this presentation. If you wish to download it, please recommend it to your friends in any social system. Share buttons are a little bit lower. Thank you!
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
Published byKaitlyn Newton
Modified over 2 years ago
© S.R.Connors–AGREA/LFEE/MIT Feb 2007 – pg. 1 MIT Laboratory for Energy and the Environment Scenario-Based Multi-Attribute Tradeoff Analysis: Vermont Public Service Board Presentation Stephen R. Connors Analysis Group for Regional Energy Analysis MIT Laboratory for Energy and the Environment One Amherst St. Room E Cambridge, MA , USA
© S.R.Connors–AGREA/LFEE/MIT Feb 2007 – pg. 2 Multi-Attribute Tradeoffs MIT Framework –Originated in the late 1980s (IRP) // Not a model Designed as Extensive/Inclusive Approach for Multi-Stakeholder/Controversy-Laden Decision Environments Multi-Attribute Multi-Objective Calculate every imaginable attribute (automatically) Few Decision Attributes/Numerous Performance Attributes Used in Two Modes: Exploratory/Learning Mode [Joint Fact-Finding, Rough Consensus on Long-Term Vision] Decision/Negotiated Settlement Mode [Choose among superior portfolios of option]
© S.R.Connors–AGREA/LFEE/MIT Feb 2007 – pg. 3 Whose Attributes? The Usual Suspects The Black Sheep Attributes Rates vs. Bills vs. Revenues Price/Rate Volatility Costs vs. Investments Continuous vs. Lumpy Expenditures Three Es: Efficiency, Equity, Employment The Incalculable Those Darn Externalities Indirect Economic Impacts Those Pesky Markets
© S.R.Connors–AGREA/LFEE/MIT Feb 2007 – pg. 4 Markets Are Our Friends Competition - Boston Style Whos in Charge?
© S.R.Connors–AGREA/LFEE/MIT Feb 2007 – pg. 5 You Want to Predict This? Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $/MWh
© S.R.Connors–AGREA/LFEE/MIT Feb 2007 – pg. 6 AGREA NIMBYs » NUMBY Not Under My Backyard Originally for pipelines Equally good for carbon sequestration » NIMO Not In My Ocean Ocean Disposal of CO 2 » NOMH (gnome) Not On My Horizon Originally conceived for offshore wind Equally good for onshore-ridge wind … And, the Ability to Site Common NIMBYs » NIMBY Not in My Backyard » NOTE / NOPE Not Over There Either Not On Planet Earth » BANANA Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near Anybody
© S.R.Connors–AGREA/LFEE/MIT Feb 2007 – pg. 7 Direct Stakeholder Input A Structured Dialogue...
© S.R.Connors–AGREA/LFEE/MIT Feb 2007 – pg. 8 Tradeoff Analysis (1) Scenario-Based Multi-Attribute Tradeoff Analysis is a scenario planning approach developed to facilitate dialogue and learning among multi-stakeholder audiences. »Large Number of Activities/Options (Multi-Option Strategies) »Large Number of Uncertainties (Multiple Futures, Scientific Uncertainty) »Large Number of Goal States/Attributes (Multiple Stakeholders, Conflicting Goals)
© S.R.Connors–AGREA/LFEE/MIT Feb 2007 – pg. 9 Tradeoff Analysis (3) Crafting Scenarios to Help Guide Policymakers A multi-option strategy for a given future is a scenario
© S.R.Connors–AGREA/LFEE/MIT Feb 2007 – pg. 10 Tradeoff Analysis (2) Features »Identifies Good and Bad Strategies »Identifies Competing/Complementary Sets of Options »Recognizes Different Deployment Schedules of Different Options »Use to Identify Robust/Flexible versus Optimal Strategies »Helps Facilitate Stakeholder Dialogues
© S.R.Connors–AGREA/LFEE/MIT Feb 2007 – pg. 11 Shandong Province Population 90 Million Area Size of Florida Installed Capacity (00) 18.5 GW (mostly coal)
© S.R.Connors–AGREA/LFEE/MIT Feb 2007 – pg. 12 Shandong Strategies Strategy Components (1008 strategies) »Existing Generation Additional Unit Retirements (2) FGD Retrofits (2) Use of Prepared Coals (3) »New Generation Baseload Technology Mix (7) Extra-Regional Generation (2) »End-Use Options Peak Load Management (2) Improved End-Use Efficiency (EUE) (3) (Note: The first option in any option-set is by definition the reference option.)
© S.R.Connors–AGREA/LFEE/MIT Feb 2007 – pg. 13 Tradeoff Analysis Results
© S.R.Connors–AGREA/LFEE/MIT Feb 2007 – pg. 14 So, What Does It Cost?
© S.R.Connors–AGREA/LFEE/MIT Feb 2007 – pg. 15 For the Strategy with Prepared Coal in Existing Units, Existing Unit Retirements and FGD Retrofits, Aggressive (20%) End-Use Efficiency, Peak Load Management and New Conventional Coal, Nuclear and Natural Gas Generation Ann. SO2 & PM10 Emissions <- Sulfur Reductions from Fuel Switch (from Reference Strategy) <- PM Reductions from Fuel Switch Reductions from Fuel Switch, End-Use Efficiency & New Generation Choice -> Reference Future
© S.R.Connors–AGREA/LFEE/MIT Feb 2007 – pg. 16 Key Results (Shandong) Significant cost-effective opportunities exist for reducing power plant criteria pollutants (SO 2, PM, NO x ), and reducing increases of greenhouse gas emissions (CO 2 ). The best performing strategies were a combination of the following options: »Use of prepared coal to reduce PM and SO 2 »Select retirement or emissions retrofits of existing generation »Implementation of peak load management and end-use efficiency programs »Addition of non-carbon emitting generation technologies »Do not forget the fuel supply infrastructure and markets
© S.R.Connors–AGREA/LFEE/MIT Feb 2007 – pg. 17 Demand-Side and CO2
© S.R.Connors–AGREA/LFEE/MIT Feb 2007 – pg. 18 Existing Units and PM10
© S.R.Connors–AGREA/LFEE/MIT Feb 2007 – pg. 19 Whats Required? Develop an infrastructure management perspective. What is the resulting vision? Explore options in greater detail Develop in-depth knowledge of energy consumption patterns and renewable energy resources Identify and implement essential robust options, and develop promising future flexible options.
© S.R.Connors–AGREA/LFEE/MIT Feb 2007 – pg. 20 Now Looking at Tougher Options Technology Development, Deployment and Use Renewable Resources… Non-dispatchable Variable across multiple time scales Temporal dynamics interact with other important dynamics (markets, consumer behavior) Decentralized Decisions Choice and use of distributed generation Energy efficiency options that use information technology to reduced demand (smart loads) Influenced by Market Prices and other Situational Aspects Example: Wind Resource Dynamics
© S.R.Connors–AGREA/LFEE/MIT Feb 2007 – pg. 21 Wind in Space and Time Source: Mass Renewable Energy Trust TrueWind Solutions Electricity Demand Generation from Wind
© S.R.Connors–AGREA/LFEE/MIT Feb 2007 – pg. 22 Logan Hotel Buzzards Bay Boston Nantucket Seasonal & Daily Variability Generation Summed by Month and Hour-of-Day (2004)
© S.R.Connors–AGREA/LFEE/MIT Feb 2007 – pg. 23 One Site for Many Years… Nantucket (Sleigh Ride?)
© S.R.Connors–AGREA/LFEE/MIT Feb 2007 – pg. 24 Operating Modes and Resource Portfolios Renewable Resource Variability Wind and Sun (Magnitude and Timing) Rainfall (Hydropower, Biomass) Fuel Markets Fuel Prices/Price Differentials (esp. Natural Gas) Infrastructure Investments (Pipelines/Storage/LNG) Conventional Generation Nuclear Availability, Hydro Potential Power Market Structure (Capacity Markets, Bid Rules) Power Grid Operations (Reliability/Contingency Practices) Energy Demands Demand Growth – Relative to Supply Growth Heating Degree Days/Cooling Degree Days
© S.R.Connors–AGREA/LFEE/MIT Feb 2007 – pg. 25 Identifying Robust Strategies A Robust Strategy has Robust and Flexible Options Commonalities and Differences
© S.R.Connors–AGREA/LFEE/MIT Feb 2007 – pg. 26 Closing Observations/Questions At Which Stage Are You? » Short/Medium-Term in the Context of a Long-Term Plan/Vision/Whatever » Are All the Major Factors Been Included/Considered? » Have the Major Organizational/ Institutional Factors Been Overlooked? (Brains and Bodies)
© S.R.Connors–AGREA/LFEE/MIT Feb 2007 – pg. 27 Have We Had It Too Easy? We need to develop the information, tools, implementable visions, and the policies and people to realize them.
Energy Portfolio Standards Creating New Opportunities for Increased Use of Clean Energy Katrina Pielli Clean Energy Program Manager Climate Protection.
Energy Efficiency Policy Trends A Look Nationally Katrina Pielli Clean Energy Program Manager Climate Protection Partnerships Division U.S. Environmental.
Increasing the Use of Clean Energy Supply in Florida Removing Key Barriers and Creating New Opportunities Ted Bronson Power Equipment Associates, for US.
1 European Commissions Green Paper on Energy European Parliament - Brussels, 18 September 2006 WHEN AN EFFECTIVE EU ENERGY POLICY? A. Clerici WEC / ABB.
California Energy Commission - Public Interest Energy Research Program Page 0 Transmission Research Program Strategic Benefits Quantification for Transmission.
1.1 Module 1 Introduction to Mitigation Under the UNFCCC a.The science of climate change. b.Definition and scope of mitigation c.Contributions of IPCC.
Experience you can trust. Practical Approaches to Benefit- Cost Challenges in Energy Efficiency Programs Kansas Corporation Commission Mitchell Rosenberg,
Towards a Resilient Gulf Coast A Utilitys Perspective on Risks, Challenges & Opportunities 2010 NCSL Coastal Policy Forum October 21, 2010 Jeff Williams.
OPG's Contribution to Ontario's Energy Needs: Performance, Projects and Priorities Pierre Charlebois Chief Operating Officer: Ontario Power Generation.
Reliable Power Reliable Markets Reliable People Reliable Power Reliable Markets Reliable People Wind Integration in Alberta: M arket & Operational Framework.
3.1 Mitigation Assessment: Concepts, Structure and Steps CGE TRAINING MATERIALS- MITIGATION ASSESSMENT MODULE C.
Bureau of Economic Geology, The University of Texas at Austin Defining Community and Economic Benefits Associated with Energy Infrastructure Projects:
1 Chapter 13 Information Technology Economics. 2 Learning Objectives Identify the major aspects of the economics of information technology. Explain the.
The Regulatory Assistance Project 177 Water St. Gardiner, Maine USA Tel: Fax: State Street, Suite 3 Montpelier, Vermont.
FPL Proposal for a Florida Renewable Portfolio Standard FPSC Staff Workshop December 6, 2007.
Stop TB Working Group on New Vaccines: Task Force on Economics and Product Profiles Discussion Points London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could.
Logistic Management in Renewable Energy Industry e-Course Introduction ELOMPRES LdV Transfer of Innovation.
1 Climate Change Policies: Roles of Developing Countries Anil Markandya Bath University December 10, 2006.
Planning for Success Reasoned Expectations For New Nuclear Plant Construction Kansas Corporation Commission February 28, 2008.
Purchasing and Supply Chain Management by W.C. Benton Chapter Two Purchasing Decisions And Business Strategy McGraw-Hill/IrwinCopyright © 2010 The McGraw-Hill.
Corporate responsibility and business success in China Presentation Pack.
CHAPTER 2 COST CONCEPTS. COST IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE Profit = Revenue – Cost Revenue = (Price)*(Quantity Sold) depends on market conditions, which are often.
1 Chapter 2: Decision Making, Systems, Modeling, and Support Conceptual Foundations of Decision Making The Systems Approach How Support is Provided.
What Is Happening in China on Climate Change? LI Liyan and LU Xuedu BASIC China Team International Workshop on Future Climate Change Policy August 6-9,
1 Utilization-focused Evaluation of a Portfolio of Research, Development, & Demonstration Programs Helen Kim, Larry Pakenas - NYSERDA Rick Ridge – Heschong.
Highlights from Recent EPRI Climate-Related Work CA Council on Science & Technology October 2006 Bryan Hannegan Director, Environment.
Pg 1 1 Introduction to Sustainable Solutions Johnson Controls, Inc. Be a leader. Use less energy. Use smart energy.
1 Fuel Cells and Hydrogen Joint Undertaking 2013 Stakeholder General Assembly Bert De Colvenaer, Executive Director Brussels, 13 November 2013.
Business Unit Strategy Formulation of Business Unit Strategy in a turbulent environment March 2003 Examples and approach 108 rue Damrémont Paris.
© 2016 SlidePlayer.com Inc. All rights reserved.