Presentation on theme: "MIT Laboratory for Energy and the Environment"— Presentation transcript:
1MIT Laboratory for Energy and the Environment Scenario-Based Multi-Attribute Tradeoff Analysis: Vermont Public Service Board PresentationStephen R. Connors Analysis Group for Regional Energy Analysis MIT Laboratory for Energy and the Environment One Amherst St. Room E Cambridge, MA , USA
2Multi-Attribute Tradeoffs MIT “Framework”Originated in the late 1980s (IRP) // Not a “model”Designed as Extensive/Inclusive Approach for Multi-Stakeholder/Controversy-Laden Decision EnvironmentsMulti-Attribute ≠ Multi-ObjectiveCalculate every imaginable attribute (automatically)Few “Decision Attributes”/Numerous “Performance Attributes”Used in Two Modes:Exploratory/Learning Mode [Joint Fact-Finding, Rough Consensus on Long-Term “Vision”]Decision/Negotiated Settlement Mode [Choose among superior portfolios of option]
3Whose Attributes? The “Usual Suspects” The Black Sheep Attributes Rates vs. Bills vs. RevenuesPrice/Rate VolatilityCosts vs. InvestmentsContinuous vs. “Lumpy” ExpendituresThree E’s: Efficiency, Equity, EmploymentThe “Incalculable”Those Darn “Externalities”Indirect Economic ImpactsThose Pesky Markets
4“Markets Are Our Friends” Competition - Boston StyleWho’s in Charge?
5You Want to Predict This? $/MWhJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec
6… And, the “Ability to Site” Common NIMBYsNIMBY Not in My BackyardNOTE / NOPE Not Over There Either Not On Planet EarthBANANA Build Absolutely Nothing Anywhere Near AnybodyAGREA NIMBYsNUMBY Not Under My BackyardOriginally for pipelinesEqually good for carbon sequestrationNIMO Not In My OceanOcean Disposal of CO2NOMH (‘gnome’) Not On My HorizonOriginally conceived for offshore windEqually good for onshore-ridge wind
7Direct Stakeholder Input A Structured Dialogue...
8Tradeoff Analysis (1)Scenario-Based Multi-Attribute Tradeoff Analysis is a scenario planning approach developed to facilitate dialogue and learning among multi-stakeholder audiences.Large Number of Activities/Options (Multi-Option Strategies)Large Number of Uncertainties (Multiple Futures, Scientific Uncertainty)Large Number of Goal States/Attributes (Multiple Stakeholders, Conflicting Goals)
9A multi-option strategy for a given future is a scenario Tradeoff Analysis (3)“Crafting” Scenarios to Help Guide PolicymakersA multi-option strategy for a given future is a scenario
10Tradeoff Analysis (2) “Features” Identifies “Good” and “Bad” StrategiesIdentifies Competing/Complementary Sets of OptionsRecognizes Different “Deployment Schedules” of Different OptionsUse to Identify “Robust/Flexible” versus “Optimal” StrategiesHelps Facilitate Stakeholder Dialogues
11Shandong Province Population ≈ 90 Million Area ≈ Size of Florida Installed Capacity (‘00) ≈ 18.5 GW (mostly coal)
12Shandong Strategies Strategy Components (1008 strategies) Existing GenerationAdditional Unit Retirements (2)FGD Retrofits (2)Use of “Prepared” Coals (3)New GenerationBaseload Technology Mix (7)Extra-Regional Generation (2)End-Use OptionsPeak Load Management (2)Improved End-Use Efficiency (EUE) (3) (Note: The first option in any option-set is by definition the “reference option.”)
15Ann. SO2 & PM10 EmissionsFor the Strategy with Prepared Coal in Existing Units, Existing Unit Retirements and FGD Retrofits, Aggressive (20%) End-Use Efficiency, Peak Load Management and New Conventional Coal, Nuclear and Natural Gas Generation<- Sulfur Reductions from Fuel Switch (from Reference Strategy)<- PM Reductions from Fuel SwitchReductions from Fuel Switch, End-Use Efficiency & New Generation Choice ->Reductions from Fuel Switch, End-Use Efficiency & New Generation Choice ->Reference Future
16Key Results (Shandong) Significant cost-effective opportunities exist for reducing power plant criteria pollutants (SO2, PM, NOx), and reducing increases of greenhouse gas emissions (CO2).The best performing strategies were a combination of the following options:Use of prepared coal to reduce PM and SO2Select retirement or emissions retrofits of existing generationImplementation of peak load management and end-use efficiency programsAddition of non-carbon emitting generation technologiesDo not forget the fuel supply infrastructure and markets
19What’s Required?Develop an “infrastructure management” perspective. What is the resulting “vision?”Explore options in greater detailDevelop “in-depth” knowledge of energy consumption patterns and renewable energy resourcesIdentify and implement “essential” robust options, and develop “promising” future flexible options.
20Now Looking at Tougher Options Technology Development, Deployment and UseRenewable Resources…Non-dispatchableVariable across multiple time scalesTemporal dynamics interact with other important dynamics (markets, consumer behavior)Decentralized DecisionsChoice and use of distributed generationEnergy efficiency options that use information technology to reduced demand (smart loads)Influenced by Market Prices and other Situational AspectsExample: Wind Resource Dynamics
21Wind in Space and Time Electricity Demand Generation from Wind Source: Mass Renewable Energy Trust TrueWind Solutions
22Seasonal & Daily Variability Generation Summed by Month and Hour-of-Day (2004)HotelBuzzards BayBostonNantucketLogan
23One Site for Many Years… Nantucket (Sleigh Ride?)Windspeed: SD: 1-2 m/s; CV: 10-20%. CF: SD: 10-20%; CV: 25-35%
24Operating Modes and “Resource” Portfolios Renewable Resource VariabilityWind and Sun (Magnitude and Timing)Rainfall (Hydropower, Biomass)Fuel MarketsFuel Prices/Price Differentials (esp. Natural Gas)Infrastructure Investments (Pipelines/Storage/LNG)Conventional GenerationNuclear Availability, Hydro PotentialPower Market Structure (Capacity Markets, Bid Rules)Power Grid Operations (Reliability/Contingency Practices)Energy DemandsDemand Growth – Relative to Supply GrowthHeating Degree Days/Cooling Degree Days
25Identifying Robust Strategies A Robust Strategy has Robust and Flexible OptionsCommonalities and Differences
26Closing Observations/Questions At Which Stage Are You?Short/Medium-Term in the Context of a Long-Term Plan/Vision/WhateverAre All the Major Factors Been Included/Considered?Have the Major Organizational/ Institutional Factors Been Overlooked? (Brains and Bodies)
27Have We Had It Too Easy?We need to develop the information, tools, implementable visions, and the policies and people to realize them.