Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Is Canada’s Housing Market Overvalued by 30 to 60 per cent? Canada Overvaluation Estimates: Bank of Canada: 10% - 30% Deutsche Bank: 63% Fitch Ratings:

Similar presentations


Presentation on theme: "Is Canada’s Housing Market Overvalued by 30 to 60 per cent? Canada Overvaluation Estimates: Bank of Canada: 10% - 30% Deutsche Bank: 63% Fitch Ratings:"— Presentation transcript:

1

2 Is Canada’s Housing Market Overvalued by 30 to 60 per cent? Canada Overvaluation Estimates: Bank of Canada: 10% - 30% Deutsche Bank: 63% Fitch Ratings: 21% IMF: 20% Moody’s Analytics: Less than 15% CMHC: Modestly Ben Myers, Fortress Real Developments | Twitter: @BenMyers29 What you Missed from the BOC Report 1.Simple ratios like price-to-rent are easy to understand but are misleading in a number of ways 2.They concluded that housing has been overvalued since 2007 and has only experienced a modest degree of upward creep since 2009 3.They admitted that their model IGNORES supply! 94% of the top Canadian housing analysts believe these types of studies have no power to predict future price movements

3 Risk of overbuilding has subsided Annual Need for New Units in the Toronto CMA TD: 30,000 to 35,000 CMHC: 34,000 Altus: 40,000 Urban Futures: 42,000 to 46,000 Ben Myers, Fortress Real Developments | Twitter: @BenMyers29 GTA Starts, Completions, U/C Down, New Home Sales Up

4 Other 2014 Pricing Results [Resale] Brookfield RPS: 13.2% [Resale] Teranet: 7.2% [New] Urbanation: 3.7% - condo only [New] RealNet: 4.1% - condo only Strong GTA Price Growth in 2014, All Forecasts Positive for 2015 Ben Myers, Fortress Real Developments | Twitter: @BenMyers29

5 Actually fewer completed and unabsorbed apartment units at year-end 2014 compared to 2013 Ben Myers, Fortress Real Developments | Twitter: @BenMyers29 Completed and Unabsorbed Supply at Long-Run Average

6 Average condo rents increasing by 3.4% and 3.5% annually per CMHC & Urbanation respectively since 2011 Investors & foreign buyers not ‘fleeing’ the market Ben Myers, Fortress Real Developments | Twitter: @BenMyers29 Condominium Apartment Rents Remain Positive Despite Additional Supply

7 Just 864 starts in 2014, down 87% from 2002 Completions down 79% from 2002 Units under construction down 41% since 2002 Ben Myers, Fortress Real Developments | Twitter: @BenMyers29 Supply of New Housing is Shrinking Drastically in Mississauga

8 Singles, Semis & townhouses accounted for 84% of completions between 2000 and 2004 That rate dropped to just 36% between 2010 and 2014. Ben Myers, Fortress Real Developments | Twitter: @BenMyers29 Market Share of Low-Rise Housing is Shrinking

9 Singles pricing up around 20% over the past five years. New traditional townhouses in Mississauga are priced at $730,000 on average. Stacked towns are priced at $440,000 on average. Ben Myers, Fortress Real Developments | Twitter: @BenMyers29 Average Price of a New Single-Detached House is $1.2 Million to $1.3 Million in Mississauga South

10 Market now sees stacked townhouses as viable and desirable housing type. The 18 sites launched in 2014 are already 68% sold on average! Ben Myers, Fortress Real Developments | Twitter: @BenMyers29 Explosion of GTA Stacked Townhouse Development Launches since 2012

11 Vacancy Rate currently sits at just 1.8% In Peel Region average leased condo had rents increase 7.2% in 2014, vacancy rate at 1.2% Ben Myers, Fortress Real Developments | Twitter: @BenMyers29 Apartment Rents have Increased in 22 of the Last 24 Years in Mississauga, Condos getting Big Rent Premium

12


Download ppt "Is Canada’s Housing Market Overvalued by 30 to 60 per cent? Canada Overvaluation Estimates: Bank of Canada: 10% - 30% Deutsche Bank: 63% Fitch Ratings:"

Similar presentations


Ads by Google