Presentation on theme: "STATE BUDGET OUTLOOK MULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND ENTERPRISE SERVICES (OMES – formerly Office of State Finance) November 1, 2012*"— Presentation transcript:
STATE BUDGET OUTLOOK MULTI-YEAR TREND ANALYSIS OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND ENTERPRISE SERVICES (OMES – formerly Office of State Finance) November 1, 2012* Shelly Paulk Revenue Analyst *To be updated after official release of documents from the December meeting of the State Board of Equalization.
GENERAL REVENUE TRENDS Income vs. Expenditures (In Millions) Actual Collections Appropriations $772.8 $527.2 ($104.3) $503 $596.1 OFFICIAL ESTIMATE – FY13$6,472.5m $6,001.3m $6,369.7m Red line = Revenue trend line using actual average growth from FY-2004 thru FY-2012 – Ave. 3.68% Green line = Revenue trend line based on average growth (FY-1999 thru FY 2012) – Ave. 2.74% Black line = Expenditure growth adjusted for OHLAP (est. 8%) and ROADS increases (12 Session) Blue line = Average growth of appropriations, based on FY-2004 thru FY-2013 Act – Normalized Ave. 3.13% $6,517.9m $296.1 $156.9 $429.1 Revenue and expenditure growth rates are based on trends from OMES actual numbers and effects of current law. $5,601.3
General Revenue Fund Sources Trend Based Projections, In Millions (TO BE UPDATED WITH DEC BOE PROJECTIONS/ESTIMATES) Ave.2.9% Growth Ave. 17% Growth Ave. (2.9%) Growth Ave. 5.4% Growth Ave. 5.9% Growth OMES ACTUAL 10-YEAR NORMALIZED TREND –BASED PROJECTIONS FY-2013 – FY-2015 SOURCES SHOWN ARE TOTALS – NOT REDUCED FOR OHLAP OR ROADS FUNDING, LESS DEFERRED GP TAX CREDITS JUNE BOE EST
General Revenue Growth – 5 Major Sources (In Millions, With % of Change From Prior Year) 0.2% 6.7% 7.0% (17.3%) (Total Growth: Personal Income Tax, Corporate Income Tax, Gross Production Gas, Sales Tax, Motor Vehicle Tax) (TO BE UPDATED WITH DEC BOE PROJECTIONS/ESTIMATES) 10.6% 12.6% 8.0% ACTUALS Based on OMES 10-Yr Normalized Trend- Based Projections Less Deferred GP Gas Tax Credits, plus OHLAP & ROADS Funding 7.6% JUNE BOE ESTIMATE