1. Transport - Move towards sustainability S. Sundar Distinguished Fellow, TERI HUDCO Chair Professor, TERI University, 5 th Feb 2014 1

2. 2 Key trends: Growth in freight traffic   Continuous erosion in the share of Railways in freight movement and increase in share of less fuel efficient road transport   Road transport is the most dominant mode of transport with over 50% of the freight   Length of cross-country crude oil pipelines in India : 5889 km(2010)   Total product pipelines (including LPG pipelines) - 12 925 km, with a capacity of 72 MT * Modal share in total freight traffic as of 2007-08, source: RITES Total Transport Study; # Compiled from 11 th Five Year Plan Working Group Report on Road Transport and RITES Total Transport Study % Share (NTKM) * Road = 50.12% Rail = 36.06% Coastal shipping = 6.8% Pipeline = 7.48% IWT = 0.24% Airways = 0.02% Increasing share of road

3. 3 Key trends: Growth in passenger traffic   Substantial shift from rail to road   Rail dominates long-haul   Road dominates short-haul   Road transport is the most dominant mode of transport. Almost 90% passengers moved by road in 2010-11   Air based passenger transport has seen a rapid growth in the last decade % Share (BPKM) * Road = 86.7% Rail = 12.9% Air= 0.4% * Modal share in total passenger traffic as of 2007-08 compiled from 11 th Five Year Plan Working Group Report on Road Transport and Statistical Summary – Indian Railways Increasing share of road

4. BAU passenger growth trends expected to continue in future Rapid increase in passenger transport demand expectedRapid increase in passenger transport demand expected Source: Estimates by TERI (2009) Estimates are in the medium range as compared to many other estimates 2010 to 2030 3 times increase 2010 to 2050 7 times increase 2010 to 2030 3 times increase 2010 to 2050 7 times increase 70% 80% Road sector’s dominance to continue in BAURoad sector’s dominance to continue in BAU 4

5. 5 Urban Transport

6. 6 Current Scenario–Urban Transport Population growth and rapid urbanization; more and bigger cities 38% of India’s total population to live in cities by 2025 53 million plus cities now; 85 million plus cities by 2025 and 125 by 2050. Most million plus cities are urban sprawls leading to increase in travel demand

7. Declining share of public transport  Public transport accounts for 30-55% in the four large metropolis  Public transport share in cities having a population of more than 0.8 million was in the range of 60% to 80% in 1994; this has now declined to 35% to 55%  Arrest the decline in public transport and increase its share to 50%  Introduce public transport in second-order cities  Promote informal transport 7

8. Non-motorised transport also declining  Lack of infrastructure for non-motorized transport and the increasing trip lengths due to the horizontal expansion of cities have affected pedestrians, cyclists and other non-motorized transport users in cities  Share of NMT, though high in cities, is declining as cities grow  Maintain and increase the share of NMT Mode share in Indian cities 8

9. 9 Rapid motorization   About 1/3 rd of the total vehicles in 35 million +cities   Second tier cities show greater increase in vehicle population 9

10. 10 Energy implications  The transport sector accounted for 27% (98 mtoe), next only to industry sector, of the total commercial energy consumed in the country *  The transport sector had the largest share in consumption of diesel (~70%) and petrol (~95%) #  Petrol and diesel constitute 20% and 78%, respectively of the fuel consumed by the transport sector; the remaining 2% consists of CNG, LPG, and electricity  In a BAU scenario, energy consumption is likely to increase by 6 times by 2050; dominated by road transport  Current imports of about 85% of 204 MT of crude oil processed in the country would increase to 90% of 757 mtoe by 2030, compromising India’s energy security Sources: TERI estimates (2013); # Report of the Expert Group to Advise on Pricing Methodology of Regulated Petroleum Products (2013)

11. Is the current scenario sustainable? Current scenario:  Lack of an integrated policy, targets and strategy to place transport on a low carbon path  Fragmented responsibility  Lack of inter-modal connectivity and seamless movement  Policies favour the personal automobile  Cities spend more on infrastructure expansion- creating more space for cars- flyovers, parking lots, expressways, etc.  Price distortions and fuel adulteration Has led to uni-modal growth with excessive dependence on road transport 11

12. 12 Lack of effective emission regulation –Lack of a formal fuel quality or emissions road map beyond 2010 for new vehicles –New Auto Fuel Policy Committee set up in 2013 to draw up roadmap up to 2025. The Committee is yet to submit its report

13. Different standards – one country  One set of standards for air quality across the country  Different vehicle emission and fuel quality standards for 20 cities and rest of the country  Many other cities are more polluted than the ones where better quality fuel is presently supplied  Dual standards effectively treat the majority of the citizens in the country as second class citizens  Better quality vehicles moving out of 20 cities need to fill inferior quality fuel with consequences 13

14. For New Vehicles  Introduce better quality fuels and emission standards – EURO IV across the country by 2015, EURO V by 2017 and EURO VI by 2019 Move from Indian Driving Cycle towards World Harmonised Test Cycles 14

15. Move from Indian driving cycle to World Harmonized Test Cycles 15

16. And for inuse vehicles  PUC totally unsatisfactory –Poor compliance –Equipment not properly calibrated –Operators not trained –Integrity of testing in doubt  Strengthen existing I&M system for all vehicles, especially for trucks, buses and 3 wheelers  Introduce in-use vehicle management systems based on random COP testing and deterioration factors together with a recall policy  Move to annual re-registration of private vehicles Current regulations require private vehicles to re-register after a period of 15 years Formulate a policy for fleet modernization to benefit from better fuels 16

17. The sustainable approach Avoid… the need to travel Shift… to sustainable modes Improve… systems, technology and fuels Approach particularly important for urban areas 17

18.  Reduce number of trips or at least rate of growth of number of trips  Reduce length of trips Two key instruments to do this:  Integration of land use and transport in new developments and retrofitting existing developments  Use of information technology (IT) as a substitute for physical mobility – tele-/e-work and flexi-work hours, e- governance/shopping/education, etc. Avoid 18

19. Shift  Shift from personal vehicles to public transport and non-motorized modes  Prevent shift from NMT and public transport (PT) Instruments:  Encourage and facilitate NMT with appropriate policies and infrastructure provision  Introduce/enhance public transport capacity as appropriate  Regulate/rationalise para transit to supplement PT  Introduce in parallel measures to discourage the routine use and ownership of personal vehicles 19

20.  Promote efficient and clean vehicles and fuels  Improve traffic flow, driver behavior,road conditions etc  Establish robust inspection and maintenance regimes for all vehicles, with priority for trucks and buses  Move towards a world harmonized testing cycle for Type Approval testing  Encourage the use of alternate fuels and accelerate introduction of e-vehicles and solar charging  Introduce intelligent transport systems to reduce congestion and facilitate smooth flow of traffic Improve 20

21. Issues in governance  ASI interventions call for close collaboration between Centre and States  States have a major role in Avoid and Shift and also in emission control and air quality management  Section 7 of the Air Act empowers a state to prescribe tighter vehicle emission and fuel quality standards- states should examine the need for more stringent standards in heavily polluted cities  Need unified agencies for transport at national, state and urban level –All matters pertaining to transport should come under a single umbrella 21

22. 22 Thank you