1. How to Be a Tech Futurist: Predicting, Managing, and Creating in a World of Accelerating Change UAT Tech Forum 2005 John Smart, President, ASF Slides: accelerating.org/slides.html

2. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Presentation Outline 1. Overview 2. Types of Change 3. Intro to Accelerating Change 4. Prediction: Expecting the Future 5. Management: Thriving with Change 6. Creation: Making the Future

3. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Future Prediction, Management, and Creation Prediction – forecasting methods, metrics, statistical trends, the history of prediction, technology roadmapping, science and systems theory, marketing research Management – environmental scanning, scenario development, risk analysis, hedging, enterprise robustness, planning, matter, energy, space, and time management systems Creation – personal and entrepreneurial tools for creating preferred futures, research and development, creative thinking, positive psychology, social networking, business plan production

4. 1. Overview

5. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Acceleration Studies Foundation ASF (Accelerating.org) is a nonprofit community of 3,100 scientists, technologists, entrepreneurs, administrators, educators, analysts, humanists, and systems theorists discussing and dissecting accelerating change. We practice “developmental future studies,” that is, we seek to discover a set of persistent factors, stable trends, convergent capacities, and highly probable scenarios for our common future, and to use this information now to improve our daily evolutionary choices. Specifically, these include accelerating intelligence, immunity, and interdependence in our global sociotechnological systems, increasing technological autonomy, and the increasing intimacy of the human-machine, physical-digital interface.

6. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Brief History of Futures Studies 1902, H.G. Wells, Anticipations 1904, Henry Adams, A Law of Acceleration 1945, Project RAND (RAND Corp.) 1946, Stanford Research Institute (SRI International) 1962, Arthur C. Clarke, Profiles of the Future 1967, World Future Society, Institute for the Future 1970, Alvin Toffler, Future Shock 1974, University of Houston, Studies of the Future M.S. 1977, Carl Sagan, Dragons of Eden 1986, Eric Drexler, Engines of Creation, 1995, Tamkang U, Center for Futures Studies 1999, Ray Kurzweil, Age of Spiritual Machines 2002, Acceleration Studies Foundation

7. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Where are the U.S. College Courses in Foresight Development? Tamkang University 27,000 undergrads Top-ranked private university in Taiwan Like history and current affairs, futures studies (15 courses to choose from) have been a general education requirement since 1995. Why not here?

8. 2. Two Types of Change: Evolution and Development

9. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org The Left and Right Hands of “Evolutionary Development” Complex Environmental Interaction Selection & Convergence “Convergent Selection” Emergence,Global Optima MEST-Compression Standard Attractors Development Replication & Variation “Natural Selection” Adaptive Radiation Chaos, Contingency Pseudo-Random Search Strange Attractors Evolution Right HandLeft Hand Well-Explored Phase Space OptimizationNew Computat’l Phase Space Opening

10. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Marbles, Landscapes, and Basins (Complex Systems, Evolution, & Development) The marbles (systems) roll around on the landscape, each taking unpredictable (evolutionary) paths. But the paths predictably converge (development) on low points (MEST compression), the “attractors” at the bottom of each basin.

11. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org How Many Eyes Are Developmentally Optimal? Evolution is always trying experimental structures. Development has found an operational optimum. Ex: Some reptiles (e.g. Xantusia vigilis, and certain skinks) still have a parietal (“pineal”) vestigial third eye.

12. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org “Convergent Evolution”: Troodon and the Dinosauroid Hypothesis Dale Russell, 1982: Anthropoid forms as a standard attractor. A number of small dinosaurs (raptors and oviraptors) developed bipedalism, binocular vision, complex hands with opposable thumbs, and brain-to-body ratios equivalent to modern birds. They were intelligent pack-hunters of both large and small animals (including our mammalian precursors) both diurnally and nocturnally. They would likely have become the dominant planetary species due to their superior intelligence, hunting, and manipulation skills without the K-T event 65 million years ago.

13. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org How Many Wheels are Developmentally Optimal on an Automobile? Examples: Wheel on Earth. Social computation device. Diffusion proportional to population density and diversity.

14. 3. Intro to Accelerating Change

15. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Something Curious Is Going On Unexplained. (Don’t look for this in your physics or information theory texts…)

16. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org From the Big Bang to Complex Stars: “The Decelerating Phase” of Universal ED

17. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org From Biogenesis to Intelligent Technology: The “Accelerating Phase” of Universal ED Carl Sagan’s “Cosmic Calendar” (Dragons of Eden, 1977) Each month is roughly 1 billion years.

18. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org A U-Shaped Curve of Change? Big Bang Singularity 100,000 yrs ago: H. sap. sap. 1B yrs: Protogalaxies8B yrs: Earth 100,000 yrs: Matter 50 yrs ago: Machina silico 50 yrs: Scalar Field Scaffolds Developmental Singularity?

19. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Brief History of Accelerating Change Billion Years Ago 13.7Big Bang (ST origin) 13.4Milky Way Atoms (Energy, Matter) 6Sun (Organic chem) 4.5Earth (Protobionts) 3.5Bacteria (Cell) 2.5Sponge (Multicell) 0.7Clams (Nerves) 0.5Trilobites (Brains) 0.2Bees (Swarms) 0.100Mammals 0.002Humans, Tools & Clans Co-evolution Generations Ago 100,000Speech 750Agriculture 500Writing 400Libraries 40Universities 24Printing 16Accurate Clocks 5Telephone 4Radio 3Television 2Computer 1Internet/e-Mail 0GPS, nano

20. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Henry Adams, 1909: The First “Singularity Theorist” The final Ethereal Phase would last only about four years, and thereafter "bring Thought to the limit of its possibilities." Wild speculation or computational reality? Still too early to tell, at present.

21. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org The Technological Singularity Hypothesis Each unique physical- computational substrate appears to have its own “capability curve.” The information inherent in these substrates is apparently not made obsolete, but is instead incorporated into the developmental architecture of the next emergent system.

22. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Macrohistorical Singularity Books The Evolutionary Trajectory, 1998 Singularity 2130 ±20 years Trees of Evolution, 2000 Singularity 2080 ±30 years

23. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Macrohistorical Singularity Books Why Stock Markets Crash, 2003 Singularity 2050 ±10 years The Singularity is Near, 2005 Singularity 2050 ±20 years

24. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Eric Chaisson’s “Phi” (Φ): A Universal Moore’s Law Curve Free Energy Rate Density Substrate(ergs/second/gram) Galaxies 0.5 Stars 2 (counterintuitive) Planets (Early) 75 Plants 900 Animals/Genetics 20,000(10^4) Brains (Human) 150,000(10^5) Culture (Human) 500,000(10^5) Int. Comb. Engines(10^6) Jets (10^8) Pentium Chips (10^11) Source: Eric Chaisson, Cosmic Evolution, 2001 Ф time

25. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org “Unreasonable” Effectiveness and Efficiency: Wigner and Mead The Unreasonable Effectiveness of Mathematics in the Natural Sciences, Nobel Laureate Eugene Wigner, 1960 After Wigner and Freeman Dyson’s work in 1951, on symmetries and simple universalities in mathematical physics. Commentary on the “Unreasonable Efficiency of Physics in the Microcosm,” VSLI Pioneer Carver Mead, c. 1980. F=ma E=mc 2 F=-(Gm 1 m 2 )/r 2 W=(1/2mv 2 ) In 1968, Mead predicted we would create much smaller (to 0.15 micron) multi-million chip transistors that would run far faster and more efficiently. He later generalized this observation to a number of other devices.

26. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Example: Holey Optical Fibers Above: SEM image of a photonic crystal fiber. Note periodic array of air holes. The central defect (missing hole in the middle) acts as the fiber's core. The fiber is about 40 microns across. This conversion system is a million times (10 6 ) more energy efficient than all previous converters. These are the kinds of jaw-dropping efficiency advances that have historically driven the ICT revolution. Such advances are due even more to human discovery (in physical microspace) than to human creativity, which is why they have accelerated throughout the 20th century, even as we remain uncertain exactly why they continue to occur. Lasers today can made cheaply only in some areas of the EM spectrum, not including, for example, UV laser light for cancer detection and tissue analysis. It was discovered in 2004 that a hollow optical fiber filled with hydrogen gas, a device known as a "photonic crystal," can convert cheap laser light to the wavelengths previously unavailable.

27. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Understanding the Lever of ICT “The good opinion of mankind, like the lever of Archimedes, with the given fulcrum [representative democracy], moves the world.” (Thomas Jefferson, 1814) The lever of accelerating information and communications technologies (in outer space) with the fulcrum of physics (in inner space) increasingly moves the world. (Carver Mead, Seth Lloyd, George Gilder…) "Give me a lever, a fulcrum, and place to stand and I will move the world." Archimedes of Syracuse (287-212 BC), quoted by Pappus of Alexandria, Synagoge, c. 340 AD

28. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Our Historical Understanding of Accelerating Change In 1904, we seemed nearly ready to see intrinsically accelerating progress. Then came mechanized warfare (WW I, 1914-18, WW II, 1939-45), Communist oppression (60 million deaths). 20 th century political deaths of 170+ million showed the limitations of human- engineered accelerating progress models. Today the idea of accelerating progress remains in the cultural minority, even in first world populations. It is viewed with interest but also deep suspicion by a populace traumatized by technological extremes, global divides, and economic fluctuation. Zbigniew Brzezinski, Out of Control, 1993

29. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Acceleration Quiz Q: Of the 100 top economies in the world, how many are multinational corporations and how many are nation states?

30. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Acceleration Quiz Q: Of the 100 top revenue generating entities in the world, how many are multinational corporations and how many are nation states? 76 MNC’s and 24 Nations. GBN, Future of Philanthropy, 2005

31. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Acceleration Quiz Q: How many of the lowest net-worth Americans would it take to approximate Bill Gate’s net worth? (296 million Americans in 2005)

32. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Acceleration Quiz Q: How many of the lowest net-worth Americans would it take to approximate Bill Gate’s net worth? Roughly 110 million Americans in 1997, when his net worth was $40 billion. At $30 billion presently (2005), Mr. Gates ranks roughly as the 60 th largest country, and the 55 th largest business. When MSFT went public in 1986, Bill was worth $230 million. NYU economist Edward Wolff (See also Top Heavy, 2002)

33. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Acceleration Quiz Q: Disney and Sony (respectively) produce and launch one new product every _________?

34. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Acceleration Quiz Q: Disney and Sony (respectively) produce and launch one new product every _________? Three minutes for Disney. Twenty minutes for Sony. Elizabeth Debold, What is Enlightenment?, March-May 2005

35. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org World Economic Performance GDP Per Capita in Western Europe, 1000 – 1999 A.D. This curve looks quite smooth on a macroscopic scale. Notice the “knee of the curve” occurs at the industrial revolution, circa 1850.

36. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Three Hierarchical Systems of Social Change Technological (dominant since 1950!) “It’s all about the technology” (what it enables, how inexpensively it can be developed) Economic (dominant 1800-1950’s, secondary now) “It’s all about the money” (who has it, control they gain with it) Political/Cultural (dominant pre-1800’s, tertiary now) “It’s all about the power” (who has it, control they gain with it) Developmental Trends: 1. The levels have reorganized, to “fastest first.” 2. More pluralism (a network property) on each level. Pluralism examples: 40,000 NGO’s, rise of the power of media, tort law, Insurance, lobbies, etc.

37. 4. Prediction: Expecting the Future

38. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Humans are Prediction Systems Jeff Hawkins, Inventor, PalmPilot, CTO, Palm Computing Founder, Redwood Neurosciences Institute Author, On Intelligence: How a New Understanding of the Brain will Lead to the Creation of Truly Intelligent Machines, 2004 “Our brain is structured for constant forecasting.”

39. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org The Prediction Wall and The Prediction Crystal Ball What does hindsight tell us about prediction? The Year 2000 was the most intensive long range prediction effort of its time, done at the height of the forecasting/ operations research/ cybernetics/ think tank (RAND) driven/ “instrumental rationality” era of Futures Studies. (Kahn & Wiener, 1967).

40. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Many Accelerations are Underwhelming Some Modest Exponentials: Productivity per U.S. worker hr has improved 500% over 75 years (1929-2004, 2% per yr) Business investment as % of U.S. GDP is flat at 11% over 25 years. Nondefense R&D spending as % of First World GDP is up 30% (1.6 to 2.1%) over 21 years (1981-2002). Technology spending as % of U.S. GDP is up 100% (4% to 8%) over 35 years (1967-2002) BusinessWeek, 75 th Ann. Issue, “The Innovation Economy”, 10.11.2004

41. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Moore’s Law Moore’s Law derives from two predictions in 1965 and 1975 by Gordon Moore, co-founder of Intel, (and named by Carver Mead) that computer chips (processors, memory, etc.) double their complexity every 12-24 months at near constant unit cost. This means that every 15 years, on average, a large number of technological capacities (memory, input, output, processing) grow by 1000X (Ten doublings: 2,4,8…. 1024). Emergence! There are several abstractions of Moore’s Law, due to miniaturization of transistor density in two dimensions, increasing speed (signals have less distance to travel) computational power (speed × density).

42. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Ray Kurzweil: A Generalized Moore’s Law

43. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Transistor Doublings (2 years) Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net

44. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Processor Performance (1.8 years) Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net

45. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org DRAM Miniaturization (5.4 years) Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net

46. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org IT’s Exponential Economics Courtesy of Ray Kurzweil and KurzweilAI.net

47. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Relative Growth Rates are Surprisingly Predictable Brad DeLong (2003) noted that memory density predictably outgrows microprocessor density, which predictably outgrows wired bandwidth, which predictably outgrows wireless. Expect: 1 st : New Storage Apps, 2 nd : New Processing Apps, 3 rd : New Communications Apps, 4 th : New Wireless Apps

48. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Dickerson’s Law: Solved Protein Structures as a Moore’s-Dependent Process Richard Dickerson, 1978, Cal Tech: Protein crystal structure solutions grow according to n=exp(0.19y1960) Dickerson’s law predicted 14,201 solved crystal structures by 2002. The actual number (in online Protein Data Bank (PDB)) was 14,250. Just 49 more. Macroscopically, the curve has been quite consistent.

49. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org With the advent of the transistor (June 1, 1948), the commercial digital world emerged. New problems have emerged (population, human rights, asymmetric conflict, environment), yet we see solutions for each in coming waves of technological globalization. “The human does not change, but our house becomes exponentially more intelligent.” We look back not to Spencer or Marx and their human-directed Utopias, but to Henry Adams, who realized the core acceleration is due to the intrinsic properties of technological systems. The Start of Symbiosis: The Digital Era Michael Riordan, Crystal Fire, 1998

50. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org The Symbiotic Age A time when computers “speak our language.” A time when our technologies are very responsive to our needs and desires. A time when humans and machines are intimately connected, and always improving each other. A time when we will begin to feel “naked” without our computer “clothes.”

51. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org An ICT Attractor: The Linguistic User Interface Google’s cache (2002) Watch Windows 2004 become Conversations 2020… Convergence of Infotech and Sociotech

52. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org AI-in-the-Interface (a.k.a. “IA”) AI is growing, but slowly (KMWorld, 4.2003) ― $1B in ’93 (mostly defense), $12B in 2002 (now mostly commercial). AGR of 12% ― U.S., Asia, Europe equally strong ― Belief nets, neural nets, expert sys growing faster than decision support and agents ― Incremental enhancement of existing apps (online catalogs, etc.) Computer telephony (CT) making strides (Wildfire, Booking Sys, Directory Sys). ASR and TTS improve. Expect dedicated DSPs on the desktop after central CT. (Circa 2010-15?) Coming: Linguistic User Interface (LUI) Persuasive Computing, and Personality Capture

53. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Robo sapiens AIST and Kawada’s HRP-2 (Something very cool about this algorithm…) “Huey and Louey” Aibo Soccer

54. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Social Software, Lifelogs Gmail preserves, for the first time, everything we’ve ever typed. Gmailers are all bloggers who don’t know it. Next, some of us will store everything we’ve ever said. Then everything we’ve ever seen. This storage (and processing, and bandwidth) will continue to make us all networkable in ways and at a level we never imagined. Lifeblog, SenseCam, What Was I Thinking, and MyLifeBits (2003) are early examples of “LifeLogs.” Systems for auto-archiving and auto-indexing all life experience. Add NLP, collaborative filtering, and other early AI to this, and data begins turning into wisdom.

55. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org In the long run, we become seamless with our machines. No other credible long term futures have been proposed. “Technology is becoming organic. Nature is becoming technologic.” (Brian Arthur, SFI) Personality Capture

56. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Your “Digital You” (Digital Twin) Greg Panos (and Mother) PersonaFoundation.org “I would never upload my consciousness into a machine.” “I enjoy leaving behind stories about my life for my children.” Prediction: When your mother dies in 2050, your digital mom will be “50% her.” When your best friend dies in 2080, your digital best friend will be “80% him.” Successive approximation, seamless integration, subtle transition. When you can shift your own conscious perspective between your electronic and biological components, the encapsulation and transcendence of the biological may begin to feel like only growth, not death. We wouldn’t have it any other way.

57. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Tomorrow’s Fastspace: User-Created 3D Persistent Worlds Future Salon in Second Life Streaming audio for main speaker, chat for others. Streaming video added 2005. Cost: $10 for life + fast graphics card ($180)

58. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Phase Transitions: Web, Semantic Web, Social Software, Metaweb Nova Spivak, 2004

59. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org The Valuecosm Microcosm, Telecosm (Gilder) Datacosm (Sterling) Valuecosm (Smart) Recording and Publishing DT Preferences Avatars that Act and Transact Better for Us Mapping Positive Sum Social Interactions Much Potential For Early Abuse (Advice) Next Level of Digital Democracy (Holding Powerful Plutocratic Actors Accountable) Early Examples: Social Network Media

60. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Accelerating Public Transparency (“Panopticon”) Hitachi’s mu-chip: RFID for paper currency David Brin, The Transparent Society, 1998

61. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Our 2002 service to manufacturing labor ratio, 110 million service to 21 million goods workers, is 4.2:1 Automation and the Service Society

62. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org The Voluntary Future Lifetime hours trends:188019952040 Total Available (after eating, sleeping, etc.) 225,900298,500321,900 Worked to earn a living182,100122,40075,900 Balance for Leisure and Voluntary Work 43,800176,100246,000 Prediction: Great increase in voluntary activities. Culture, entertainment, travel, education, wellness, nonprofit service, humanitarian and development work, the arts, etc. Source: The Fourth Great Awakening and the Future of Egalitarianism, 2000, Robert Fogel (Nobel-prize-winning economist, founder of the field of cliometrics, the study of economic history using statistical and mathematical models)

63. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Saturation Example 1: Total World Population Positive feedback loop: Agriculture, Colonial Expansion, Economics, Scientific Method, Industrialization, Politics, Education, Healthcare, Information Technologies, etc.

64. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org So What Stopped the Growth?

65. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Saturation Example 2: Total World Energy Use DOE/EIA data shows total world energy use growth rate peaked in the 1970’s. Real and projected growth is progressively flatter since. Saturation factors: 1. Major conservation after OPEC (1973) 2. Stunning energy efficiency of each new generation of technological system 3. Saturation of human population and human needs for tech transformation Royal Dutch/Shell notes that energy use declines dramatically proportional to per capita GDP in all cultures. Steve Jurvetson notes (2003) the DOE estimates solid state lighting (eg. the organic LEDs in today's stoplights) will cut the world's energy demand for lighting in half over the next 20 years. Lighting is approximately 20% of energy demand. Expect such MEST efficiencies in energy technology to be multiplied dramatically in coming years. Technology is becoming more energy- effective in ways too few forcasters currently understand.

66. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Global Energy Use Saturation: Energy Consumption Per Capita When per capita GDP reaches: $3,000 – energy demand explodes as industrialization and mobility take off, $10,000 – demand slows as the main spurt of industrialization is completed, $15,000 – demand grows more slowly than income as services dominate economic growth and basic household energy needs are met, $25,000 – economic growth requires little additional energy. Later developers, using “leapfrogging technologies”, require far less time and energy to reach equivalent GDP. Energy Needs, Choices, and Possibilities: Scenarios to 2050, Shell Intnat’l, 2001

67. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Long Term Future: Solar Energy Twenty to forty year development horizon. 5-10% efficiencies at present. Need 50%. Need good, cheap energy storage systems.

68. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Underground AHS Much cheaper than air transport. 10X present capacity, under our cities. Requires IVs and ZEV’s (2025+)

69. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Longer-Term Example: Hurricane Control - New NASA/NOAA Mission? Hurricane Ivan: $11B in property damage. 11 named storms in 10 months in 2004, 7 have caused damage in U.S. NOAA expects decades of hurricane hyperactivity. Controlling Hurricanes, Scientific American, 10.2004 Ross Hoffman, use Solar Powered Satellites (SPS’s). In 1968, Peter Glaser, microwave-relay SPS’s for power on earth, tuned away from climate. These would be tuned to water vapor (like microwave oven). Low pressure centers disruptible by atmospheric heating. Very sensitive to hi pressure side steering. Cyclones, monsoons, blizzards, possibly even tornados. Research: Russian mylar mirrors, 1993, 1999 (failed). 23 m mirror (above), 5 km light circle on the ground. Arrays would raise surface temp. several degrees.

70. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org We Have Two Options: Future Shock or Future Shaping “We need a pragmatic optimism, a can- do, change-aware attitude. A balance between innovation and preservation. Honest dialogs on persistent problems, tolerance of imperfect solutions. The ability to avoid both doomsaying and paralyzing adherence to the status quo.” ― David Brin “The future’s already here. It’s just not evenly distributed yet.” ― William Gibson

71. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Carpe Diem "Twenty years from now you will be more disappointed by the things you did not do than those you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails. Explore. Dream. Discover. Give yourself away to the sea of life." — Mark Twain "In a time of change, it is learners who inherit the future. The learned find themselves well equipped to live in a world that no longer exists." — Eric Hoffer

72. 5. Management: Thriving with Change

73. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Our Greatest Strategic Interest: Managing Globalization “America has had 200 years to invent, regenerate, and calibrate the balance that keeps markets free without becoming monsters. We have the tools to make a difference. We have the responsibility to make a difference. And we have a huge interest in making a difference. Managing globalization is… our overarching national interest today and the political party that understands that first… will own the real bridge to the future.” Thomas Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree: Understanding Globalization (2000).

74. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Globalization Eras Globalization I: 1800’s – WWI Mechanism: Industrial Revolution, cheap transportation Backlash Ideologies: Communism, Socialism, Fascism

75. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Globalization Eras Globalization II: 1980’s – Present Mechanism: Information Revolution, cheap communications Backlash Ideologies: Fundamentalism, civil disobedience, crime, eco- activism Examples: Al Qaeda, Hugo Chavez, Sem Teto

76. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Globalization Management Backlash forces have to be kept in check by: Global tech innovation and diffusion Global economic growth Global political accountability transparency fair policies minimal government (maximizing tech and economic development) security

77. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org The Pentagon’s New Map A New Global Defense Paradigm

78. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Shrinking the Disconnected Gap The Computational “Ozone Hole”

79. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org U.S. Transcontinental Railroad: Promontory Point Fervor The Network of the 1880’s Built mostly by hard- working immigrants

80. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org IT Globalization (2000-2020): Promontory Point Revisited The more things change, the more some things stay the same. The intercontinental internet will be built primarily by hungry young programmers and tech support personnel in India, Asia, third-world Europe, Latin America, and other developing economic zones. In coming decades, such individuals will outnumber the First World technical support population between five- and ten-to-one. Consider what this means for the goals of U.S. business and education: Global management, partnerships, and collaboration.

81. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Information Age: Staggered Closing of Global Divides Digital divide is already closing fast. 77% of the world now has access to a telephone*. Innovation leader: Grameen Telecom Income divide may be closing the next fastest. First world plutocracy still increasing, but we are already “rationalizing” global workforce wages in the last decade*. Education divide may close next (post-LUI) Power divide likely to close last. Political change is the slowest of all domains. *World Bank, 2005

82. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Digital Ecologies and Development Radio Low Power TV Cell Phones Newspapers (Program Guides) Internet PDAs Game PCs Cordless Phones Desktop PCs Key Questions: Public access? Subsidized? Education? Strong network effects. Intrinsically socially stabilizing. “There is no digital divide.” (Cato Institute) Email Avatars Groupware Social Software IM/SMS

83. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Oil Refinery (Multi-Acre Automatic Factory) Tyler, Texas, 1964. 360 acres. Run by three operators, each needing only a high school education. The 1972 version eliminated the three operators.

84. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Automation and Job Disruption Between 1995 and 2002 the world’s 20 largest economies lost 22 million industrial jobs. This is the shift from a Manufacturing to a Service Economy. America lost about 2 million industrial jobs, mostly to China. China lost 15 million ind. jobs, mostly to machines. (Fortune) Despite the shrinking of America's industrial work force, the country's overall industrial output increased by 50% since 1992. (Economist) “Robots are replacing humans or are greatly enhancing human performance in mining, manufacture, and agriculture. Huge areas of clerical work are also being automated. Standardized repetitive work is being taken over by electronic systems. The key to America's continued prosperity depends on shifting to ever more productive and diverse services. And the good news is jobs here are often better paying and far more interesting than those on we knew on farms and the assembly line.” (Tsvi Bisk) "The Misery of Manufacturing," The Economist. Sept. 27, 2003 "Worrying About Jobs Isn't Productive," Fortune Magazine. Nov. 10, 2003 “The Future of Making a Living,” Tsvi Bisk, 2003

85. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Understanding Process Automation Perhaps 80% of today's First World paycheck is paid for by automation (“tech we tend”). Robert Solow, 1987 Nobel in Economics (Solow Productivity Paradox, Theory of Economic Growth) “7/8 comes from technical progress.” Human contribution (20%?) to a First World job is Social Value of Employment + Creativity + Education Developing countries are next in line (sooner or later). Continual education and grants (“taxing the machines”) are the final job descriptions for all human beings. Termite Mound

86. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Empire Progression (Note the West-Far East Trajectory) American Japan (Temporary: Pop density, Few youth, no resources. East Asian Tigers (Taiwan Hong Kong South Korea Singapore) India China Expect a Singapore-style “Autocratic Capitalist” transition. Population control, plentiful resources, stunning growth rate, drive, and intellectual capital. U.S. science fairs: 50,000 high school kids/year. Chinese science fairs: 6,000,000 kids/year. For now. BHR-1, 2002

87. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Creative Destruction: Creating a Legal and Social Culture of Innovation Key Metric: Of the top 25 companies in each country 25 years ago, how many are still the same? France, Germany, Japan: Almost all. Europe: Most United States: Roughly half Taiwan, Hong Kong: Very few Thomas Friedman, The Lexus and the Olive Tree, 2000

88. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Taiwan’s Example Taiwan requires university undergraduates to take courses in Futures Studies. Taiwan owns 46,000 contract factories in China (mutually assured economic destruction). Taiwan has become the IT hardware manufacturing capital of the world. Taiwan has the highest degree of economic creative destruction in the world.

89. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org U.S. Innovation/Competitiveness/Acceleration has flagged in recent years China surpassed the U.S. this year as the largest recipient of foreign direct investment. In 2002, US Corporate R&D declined by $8 billion, largest percentage drop since 1950. Five countries (Japan, South Korea, Sweden, Finland, Israel) spend more GDP on R&D than the U.S. Foreign owned companies and foreign born inventors now count for nearly half of all U.S. patents, with Japan, Korea, and Taiwan accounting for more than one fourth. Federal R&D funding is now 1/2 of its 1960's peak of 2% of GDP. Total scientific papers by American authors peaked in 1992 and have been flat ever since. Services are the fastest growing sector of many technology companies, yet much of our service sector, now more than half the U.S. economy, traditionally does little R&D on business process design, organization, and management. Innovate America, NII, Council on Competitiveness, 2004

90. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org National Innovation Initiative Recommendations (sample) Innovate America, NII, Council on Competitiveness, 2004 TalentInvestmentPolitics Expedited, expanded sci-tech immigration 3% of federal R&D for “innov. accel.” grants Cabinet-level or NEC interagency group National sci-tech scholarship fund, tax credits to contributors 3% of DoD budget must go back to sci- tech, 20% of this at U’s New innovation metrics, national innovation agenda Portable graduate tech fellowships similar to NSF fellowships Develop “services science” as a new academic discipline National innovation scorecard, prizes. Better patent office. Matching funds for postsecondary MS programs in tech and innovation Reward ten regional “innovation hotspots” with 5 yrs of funding Improved IP, tort law, intangible disclosure law. Our Biggest Opportunity: Innovation partnerships with the 3 billion new workers who weren’t in the global economy ten years ago.

91. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Our Generation’s Theme First World Saturating, Third World Uplifting.

92. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Smart’s Laws of Technology 1. Tech learns ten million times faster than you do. (Electronic vs. biological rates of evolutionary development). 2.Humans are selective catalysts, not controllers, of technological evolutionary development. (Regulatory choices. Ex: WMD production or transparency, P2P as a proprietary or open source development) 3. The first generation of any technology is often dehumanizing, the second is indifferent to humanity, and with luck the third becomes net humanizing. (Cities, cars, cellphones, computers).

93. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org The NBIC Report and Conferences Converging Technologies for Improving Human Performance: Nanotechnology, Biotechnology, Information Technology and Cognitive Science Edited by Mike Roco and William Sims Bainbridge, National Science Foundation, 2002 (NSF/DoC Sponsored Report) www.wtec.org/ConvergingTechnologies/

94. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org “NBICS”: 5 Choices for Strategic Technological Development Nanotech (micro and nanoscale technology) Biotech (biotechnology, health care) Infotech (computing and comm. technology) Cognotech (brain sciences, human factors) Sociotech (remaining technology applications) It is easy to spend lots of R&D or marketing money on a still-early technology in any field. Infotech examples: A.I., multimedia, internet, wireless It is almost as easy to spend disproportionate amounts on older, less centrally accelerating technologies. Every technology has the right time and place for innovation and diffusion. First mover and second mover advantages.

95. 6. Creation: Making the Future

96. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Some Tools for Shaping the Future Education Investment Literacy / Environmental Awareness – Technological – Business – Political – Social Foresight Innovation Competition (fair, creatively destructive) Leadership – Local Commitment – Global Perspective Activism

97. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Education Questions How do we best educate our ourselves, our employees, our community, our children? How do we learn “on demand” when we need it? How do we learn when to act locally, and when to act globally? When to learn individually vs. collectively?

98. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Developmental Windows In 2005, India is seeing a grassroots movement to get schools to teach English in first grade (vs. fourth grade). Three to six is a developmental window for effortless language acquisition. Mandarin or Hindi for your child? Zerotothree.org What will tomorrows for-profit daycare chains be like?

99. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org On Demand Tech Ed: From Geek Squad to Global Computer Helpers 80 million smart, underemployed tech workers, working at a salary of $1,400/year (China, India) + 140 million U.S. labor force (2000). + Exponentiating capabilites of our IT systems + Commodity communications costs + PC transparency software (Gotomypc) + Trust (Privacy) = On Demand Tech Education How soon?

100. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Create Your Own Network: Consider Ben Franklin’s Junto Met every Friday. The group invented: – the first subscription library in North America – the most advanced volunteer fire department – the first public hospital in Pennsylvania, – an insurance company, a constabulary, – improved streetlights, paving – the University of Pennsylvania. Broad Interests, Narrow Tasks. – Scientist – Inventor – Businessman – Statesman

101. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Investment Questions Are you practicing socially responsible and technologically responsible (acceleration aware) investing? Supporting companies, products and services that are increasingly: Global Intelligent Interdependent Immune/Transparent Efficient Innovative

102. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Literacy Questions Are you computer, web, and communications savvy? Do you use social network media (blogs, web communities, etc.)? Do you subsidize online and technological innovation (leading, not bleeding edge)? Are you reading and interpreting what’s going on in the world? See ASF Community Directory (accelerating.org/community.html)

103. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Foresight Questions Do you take time to consider the past, present, and future of your personal and professional life? Do you use strategic planning, scanning, competitive intelligence, trend extrapolation, forecasting, scenario generation, or other futures tools? Do you read the opinions of key future thinkers in your areas of professional interest? Are you supporting the emergence of a professional futures community?

104. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Innovation Questions Are you thinking about innovation across the spectrum (products and services, offline and online)? Do you know which of your employees, business partners, and customers is the most innovative, all else equal? Do you reward that in your business model? Are you working with a global and virtual innovation team?

105. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Leadership Questions Are you sharing your future visions or keeping them quiet? Are you getting critiques and feedback, and is this changing your perspective? Are you responding respectfully, adequately, yet concisely to your critics? Are you looking for others who also want to work toward a common vision? Is this a mutual appreciation society or is your group affecting real change? Are you tolerant of parallel, pluralist approaches?

106. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Good Leadership Attributes The best are passionate about 1) creating community, and 2) making it easy for users to find their voice. Stephen Covey, The Eighth Habit, 2004 “Find your voice and inspire others to find theirs.” Slow to criticize, ego-minimizing, always striving to be nice, modeling good behavior, empathic, yet responsive to communication problems.

107. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Digital Activism: Skype (Internet Telephony)

108. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Digital Activism: LinkedIn (Business Networking)

109. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Digital Activism: Videoconferencing and Groupware SOHO Web and Video Conferencing WaveThree: $199. Max of 10, 128 Kbps/user. Linktivity: $1,500 + dedicated server. Max of 5 users. VoiceCafe: $75/month. Max of 5 users Viditel: $35/month/person, unlim. meetings iChat AV: $150 webcam, OS X, broadband – Dramatic improvements over the last year. Groupware Groove Virtual Office: $69/person, one time cost. Just purchased by Microsoft. Robin Good: Best SOHO groupware solution for PowerPoints, file sharing, IM, private spaces, and project development tools. No audio or video capacities at present. Drawback: Need a fast computer.

110. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Digital Activism: User-Created 3D Persistent Worlds

111. Los Angeles Palo Alto © 2005 Accelerating.org Seeing the Extraordinary Present “There has never been a time more pregnant with possibilities.” - Gail Carr Feldman