1. …for sustainable growth in the North SSA6 Søndeledfjord, Norway Erlend Moksness, Jakob Gjøsæter, Esben Moland Olsen and Jon Helge Vølstad Institute of Marine Research, Norway Eirik Mikkelsen NORUT (Northern Research Institute), Tromsø, Norway Håkan T. Sandersen Bodø University College Istanbul, 5 February 2010 Final simulation and interactive demonstration

2. …for sustainable growth in the North SSA6 Søndeledfjord, Norway

3. …for sustainable growth in the North SSA 7.6 Søndeledfjorden

4. …for sustainable growth in the North SSA6 Søndeled fjord-system. Southeast Norway Norway

5. …for sustainable growth in the North Policy issue Policy issue developed together with municipal authorities + + Maximise local economic benefits from tourism Minimise impacts on local coastal cod stock Minimise conflicts with local users Economics component Ecology component Social component

6. …for sustainable growth in the North Fjord system elements Coastal cod stock –Focus, and indicator for ecosystem Seals, commorants Recreational fisheries Commercial cod and prawn fishery Eel fishery, with bycatch of cod Tourism: –Building and maintenance of cabins. –Construction of marinas and sandy beaches –Other tourist services –Fishing by tourists Shell-fish aquaculture

7. …for sustainable growth in the North Modelling objective Useful tool for policy-makers and regulators –connections between factors / trade-offs between objectives. –i.e. qualitatively more than quantitatively output –Demonstrated model for municipal authorities; interested Regulatory options for municipality –Land regulations: Construction of cabins, marinas and beaches –Marine wildlife regulations (seal and comorant) –Fishing regulations (commercial, tourists, recreational) –Tourist service provisions (accomodation for fishing tourists) –Rear cod juveniles for release, to enhance local cod stock –Aquaculture regulation

8. …for sustainable growth in the North Factors affecting cod stock Tourism and recreation COD-STOCK Recreational fishing Marinas and beaches 2nd homes Tourist fishing Commercial fishing Habitat 0-1 yr Seal and comorant Cod rearing Cannibalism R R R R Recruitment

9. …for sustainable growth in the North Local economic benefits from tourism No. of tourist-days Tourism expenditure Expenditure/day Factors 2nd homes Local economic benefits Building Maintenance LEB = Expenditure x Local share x Multiplier Tourist Categories: Hotel-tourists 2nd home owners Fishing tourists 2nd home renters Camping-tourists

10. …for sustainable growth in the North Factors affecting number of tourist-days for tourist categories No. of tourist-days No of tourist-days Conflict level (SC) Accomodation capacity Fishing tourist accomodation Landscape/environment quality (EC) Coastal cod stock state (EC) Regulations on tourist fishing GDP-growth rate SC=Social component EC=Ecological component

11. …for sustainable growth in the North Guest days Risør

12. …for sustainable growth in the North Tourist days and expenditures Figures used by us: Original expenditure data: Source Statistics Norway/TØI

13. …for sustainable growth in the North Local economic benefits from expenditure Parameters for LEB (local economic benefits) from tourist expenditure in the different groups:  i = (Local share) * (Multiplier) (From Auno and Sørensen 2009) Hotel 2nd Home owners Fishing tourists 2nd home renters Camping tourists

14. …for sustainable growth in the North Other economic effects Commercial fishery affected by cod stock state –”Static approach” –Changes in cod stock state (stock size) translates directly into relativel lower/higher catches, revenues and LEB Potentially: cost of rearing cod juveniles Potentially: Aquaculture- production, and effects on wild fish

15. …for sustainable growth in the North Factors affecting conflict level Tourist – local inhabitants (But… legitimacy… process... output… conflicts…) Local economic benefits from tourism No of tourist- days Conflict level indicator = No of tourist-days Local economic benefits from tourism ”Low” conflict level High Medium

16. …for sustainable growth in the North Policy issue & examples of links Maximise local economic benefits from tourism Minimise impacts on local coastal cod stock Minimise conflicts with local users 2nd homes Tourist days Fishing pressure

17. …for sustainable growth in the North Regulations / Governance Number of 2nd homes Habitat conservation (”MPA Habitat”) Cod fishing regulations (”MPA Cod”) Fishing tourist dedicated accomodation Number of –seals and comorants –Eel fishers

18. …for sustainable growth in the North Base example Cod numbers by age-group Cod biomass Commercial fishery LEB

19. …for sustainable growth in the North Base example Tourist days LEB direct tourist expenditure Sum LEB

20. …for sustainable growth in the North Example 2 No marinas/beaches No nets or trawl- fishing More dedicated fishing-tourist accomodation (80 *****) Leads to: –No commercial fishing –More fishing tourists

21. …for sustainable growth in the North Example 2 Local economic benefits by category Bottom diagram –No nets/trawl –No habitat destruction –More dedicated fishing tourist accomodation

22. …for sustainable growth in the North Challenges… Make and use model when data availability and quality is low! Estimate tourist-days from ”tourists-factors” –Lack of available data –Lack of relevant studies in literature –Calibrate model to produce ”reasonable” numbers for tourist-days Understand and model in a good manner –conflict potential –Landscape quality Get data, and better data –Tourist fishers’ catches (IMR) –Expenditure and LEB from tourists fishers (NORUT) –LEB from tourism (SSB)

23. …for sustainable growth in the North Way forward…? Run scenarios for municipality Demonstrate/discuss with stakeholders Involve high-schools in project –Demonstration made –Educational use of model –Field data collections and questionnaires for data and model improvements? Commercial fishery –Better model for estimating changes in economic benefits due to changes in cod stock? –Include profit maximisation by fishers? Include ? –Cod rearing –Aquaculture –Employment-effects of tourism Search for funding to use Spicosa-framework/methodology in new projects, elaborate and refine

24. …for sustainable growth in the North Thank you

25. …for sustainable growth in the North Tourist-day numbers and expenditures Tourist day numbers this year = Initial level + Effect of factors changed from initial level x Effect of economic development (GDP-growth) Daily expenditures from national survey, + adjustments Local economic benefits from I/O-database and own estimates

26. …for sustainable growth in the North Tourist days and GDP-growth Norway

27. …for sustainable growth in the North

28. Commercial fishery Assume linear (Schaefer) harvest function: h = q E X Assume constant fishing effort Fixed prices Stock changes -> direct changes in harvest, revenues, local economic benefits

29. …for sustainable growth in the North Landscape quality index Subjective index Or A calculated index –No of 2nd homes –Boat-places in marinas, and area of constructed sandy beaches –Coastal cod stock state –Number of seals and birds (comorants) –Number/area of aquaculture plants

30. …for sustainable growth in the North Factors for tourist days Tourist groups –Hotel-tourists –2nd home owners –Fishing tourists –2nd home renters –Camping-tourists Factors affecting number of tourist-days –Total number of tourist-days –Boat facilities in town centre –Level of conflict between tourists and locals –Standard on tourist-related services –Accomodation capacity 2nd homes for rent –Accomodation capacity dedicated for fishing tourists –Accomodation capacity Hotel –Accomodation capacity Camping –Landscape and environmental quality index –Regulation on construction of 2nd homes –Regulation on construction of boat marinas –Regulation on construction of sandy beaches –State of coastal cod stock –Regulations on tourist fishing –Marketing expenditure tourism –GDP growth in Norway same year

31. …for sustainable growth in the North Tourist factors

32. …for sustainable growth in the North Tourist-day numbers and expenditures Tourist day numbers this year = Initial level + effect of change in ”factors” from their initial level + effect of economic development (GDP-growth) Daily expenditures from national survey + modifications Local economic benefits from literature, I/O-database and own estimates

33. …for sustainable growth in the North Available data, approach..? Tourist numbers – history in Risør/Sørlandet? –Countings from tourist information? –Other data How to build scenarios? –Based on policy instruments –Based on primary outcomes of policies Thank you

34. …for sustainable growth in the North

36. Shell-farming in Søndeledfjord