1. Global warming-the debate The fact that the Earth is warming is not a matter of debate, the evidence is clear The fact that global carbon dioxide levels have increased is also clear The debate centers around how much of it is caused by human involvement vs a natural cycle Think about it in terms of the steps in the scientific method:

2. Global warming in the context of the scientific method Observations-Earth’s temperature is warming Hypothesis-due to a man-made increase in green house gases Testing the hypothesis-many scientists hold different views and interpret data differently, but the consensus is that it is due to increases in greenhouse gasses from man made sources. Until the data is incontrovertible, there will always be naysayers. That’s ok, they keep us honest and push the method forward-as long as they are within the realm of the scientific method Lots of examples like this in modern science (evolution, big bang, cosmological interpretations of galaxy redshifts)

3. Dissenting opinions American Association of Petroleum Geologists was the last scientific body to acknowledge human influence on climate change Individual scientists fall into 5 categories: – Believe global warming is not occurring or has ceased – Believe accuracy of IPCC climate projections is questionable – Believe global warming is primarily caused by natural processes – Believe cause of global warming is unknown – Believe global warming will benefit human society In the end, only time will tell.

4. Prognosis How do we know what is going to happen? We don’t, but it can be predicted We call these global climate models Based on physics (fluid dynamics and radiative transfer, for eg.) Different models consider different effects, have different inputs and give a range of results Model validity is verified by using them to predict past and current climate conditions No, they are not perfect

5. Projections

6. Prognosis Sea level rise of up to 1 foot Reductions in ozone layer More intense, less frequent hurricanes Ocean ph and oxygen level reduced Spread of diseases including malaria, Lyme disease, cholera and bubonic plague Extinctions of plant an animal species Population growth due to less deaths from cold weather Changes in rainfall patterns

7. What are we doing about it Kyoto Protocol – International environmental treaty to achieve stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent man-made interference with the climate establishes legally binding commitments for the reduction of four greenhouse gases (carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulphur hexafluoride), and two groups of gases (hydrofluorocarbons and perfluorocarbons) produced by (industrialized) nations, general commitments for all member countries. Did not impose limitations on developing countries (such as China) initially adopted for use on 11 December 1997 in Kyoto, Japan entered into force on 16 February 2005. Signed but not ratified by the US

8. Kyoto industrialized countries agreed to reduce their collective GHG emissions by 5.2% compared to the year 1990. National limitations range from 8% reductions for the European Union and some others to 7% for the United States, 6% for Japan, and 0% for Russia. The treaty permitted GHG emission increases of 8% for Australia and 10% for Iceland.

9. US position US signed in 1998, but this was symbolic-treaty is not binding until ratified. – Yet the US is the largest per capita emitter of carbon dioxide Prior to Kyoto, (though with a knowledge of what it said) the US Senate passed a resolution that stated “stated the sense of the Senate was that the United States should not be a signatory to any protocol that did not include binding targets and timetables for developing nations as well as industrialized nations or "would result in serious harm to the economy of the United States”” Main concern is the economic losses associated with instituting the caps on carbon emission Neither the Clinton nor Bush administration submitted the treaty for ratification Obama Administration’s position is that the treaty is about to end, there is no point in ratifying it (it has a little less than 3 years left) States and cities have adopted initiatives to cap carbon emissions on their own, based at least in part on Kyoto.

10. Reasons for opposition Global socialism-a scheme to transfer wealth to third world countries and or slow the growth of the worlds industrialized democracies Doesn’t go far enough to curb GHG emissions Costs outweigh benefits Using a single base year (1990) may result in inequities in the caps