1. Precipitation over Narrow Mountain Ranges Ethan Gutmann Roy Rasmussen, Greg Thompson, David Gochis, Kyoko Ikeda, Changhai Liu, Jimy Dudhia, Martyn Clark

2. Precipitation: snow Narrow: ~10km (the physics apply to all ranges) Mountain: >1km high Problem Definition

3. The Question? Why are PRISM and WRF different, and which is correct? Wind

4. The Question? Or is the Linear Theory model correct? (Smith and Barstad 2004) Wind

5. The Question? Wind Or is the Linear Theory model correct? (Smith and Barstad 2004) With unrealistic parameters

6. The hypothesis Strong updrafts on the upwind side of the mountain carry snow to the downwind side, where opposing downdrafts hurry the snow to the ground. … but no solid evidence

7. For Reference: Colle et al., 2000; Medina et al., 2004; Garvert et al., 2007 … but no solid evidence Enhanced RADAR reflectivity in lee Enhanced Model precipitation in lee

8. Stepping back…

9. The Test Measurements of snow in the Sangre de Cristo Mountains 10km wide, 1.5km high, ~100km upwind fetch

10. Modeling Updrafts in WRF reach >4m/s Terminal velocity of snow is ~1m/s Note: stronger downdrafts W (m/s)

11. NCAR Snow depth SNOTEL Snow depth The Test In the trees : ~3400m

12. The Test Wind NCAR Snow depth SNOTEL Snow depth

13. Site Photos NCAR Site SNOTEL Site

14. Initial Data

16. Wind direction

18. The Test Wind

19. Other Mountains Wind

20. Future Climate? Apparent decrease in the future (relatively more on upwind). NOTE: PGW is rescaled to match NARR mean, it increases everywhere

21. Conclusions Snow preferentially falls in the lee of narrow mountain ranges. This effect is likely to decrease in the future, but this decrease is relatively small. This may lead to more water in upwind watersheds.

22. Thanks Photo:Greg Thompson