1. TRENDS IN U.S. POLITICS FOR THE NEXT FOUR YEARS A DAY OF RECKONING FOR THE U.S. ECONOMY? Dr. Sidney Weintraub Madrid, SPAIN February 28, 2005 Center for Strategic and International Studies 1800 K Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20006 Phone: 202-887-0200 Fax: 202-775-3199 www.csis.org www.csis.org

2. Figure 1: United States Annual GDP Growth Compared to Western Europe Source: HSBC, “Global Economics”, January 6, 2005, p28

3. Figure 2: United States Fiscal Deficit Source: The Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: September 2004 and January 2005 Note: Estimates omit a significant amount of future spending that may and will occur

4. Figure 3: United States Total Mandatory Spending (% of GDP) Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2006 to 2015

5. Figure 4: United States Current Account Deficit (% of GDP) Source: HSBC, “Global Economics”, January 6, 2005

6. Figure 5: United States Current Account Source: HSBC, “Global Economics,” January 6, 2005, p44; and IMF: International Financial Statistics (accessed on January 12, 2005)

7. Table 1: Selected Exchange rates vis-à-vis US dollar Source: HSBC, “Global Economics,” January 6, 2005, p. 34

8. Figure 6: United States Net Foreign Liabilities (end of year) Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

9. Figure 7: United States Mandatory Spending for Social Security Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2006 to 2015

10. Figure 8. United States Mandatory Spending for Medicare Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2006 to 2015

11. Figure 9: United States Mandatory Spending for Medicaid Source: Congressional Budget Office, The Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal Years 2006 to 2015