1. Spruce Beetle and Sudden Aspen Decline Management Response Basic Science and Analysis Assumptions

2. Hydrology and Soils

3. Guiding Issues and Goals Issue: Effects of existing and potential roads on water quality and soil conditions Goals: Protect soil productivity, minimize erosion Protect or enhance fens, wetlands, and riparian areas

4. Overarching Assumptions Relatively small areas of watershed will be treated in any one year Design features and proven Best Management Practices will be used to minimize impacts New road creation will be minimized Pre-implementation surveys and impacts analysis will be conducted prior to implementation of specific treatments and projects

5. Methods- Analysis Approach Watershed condition used as baseline Calculate watershed area impacted by disturbing activities Calculate potential watershed area impacted by project activities

6. Basic Science and Analysis Assumptions Wildlife

7. Guiding Issues and Goals Re-establish forests damaged by bark beetles – Establish and maintain diverse forest cover Prevent or mitigate future bark beetle outbreaks – Increase diversity of age class and tree species in areas that are at the greatest risk

8. Overarching Wildlife Assumptions Beetle epidemic is changing spruce fir stand conditions due to high amount of mortality in stands. – Changes in stands conditions are affecting species that utilize these areas including lynx by reducing the amount of suitable habitat available and decreasing habitat quality. Mortality in aspen stands is resulting in the decline of stand health and habitat for species utilizing aspen.

9. Methods- Analysis Approach Use existing conditions and available stand data Analysis will be qualitative with design features, monitoring, and adaptive implementation as factors in minimizing effects to species. Lynx analysis will follow management guidelines described in the Southern Rockies Lynx Management Direction.

10. Basic Science and Analysis Assumptions Sensitive Plants and Invasive Plants

11. Guiding Issues and Goals Treatments could potentially impact sensitive plants Avoid areas where sensitive plants are found, through pre-treatment surveys and other design features. Project activities could introduce and spread invasive plants – Use design features that limit or prevent introduction and spread of invasive plants

12. Overarching Assumptions Design features will minimize or reduce potential effects on known occurrences of sensitive plant species. Design features will reduce the potential introduction, spread, and establishment of invasive plants that could occur as a result of treatments. The action alternatives include areas common to all; where these alternatives overlap, the impacts and effects to sensitive plant occurrences will be similar. Design features will not allow pile burning nor heavy machinery to operate directly in fens, meadows, and riparian areas. Effects will be dependent on the location where the treatments occur, and whether there are sensitive species or suitable habitat present. Effects are discussed in qualitative terms rather than quantitative.

13. Methods- Analysis Approach Effects are analyzed for known sensitive plant occurrences and for potential habitats which will be discussed in the context of “assumed to be occupied”

14. Basic Science and Analysis Assumptions Silviculture

15. Guiding Issues and Goals Goals Focus on public health and safety Re-establish forests damaged by bark beetles Prevent or mitigate future bark beetle outbreaks Maximize economic value Issues Is treatment necessary and effective? Increase treatments beyond the proposed action

16. Overarching Assumptions Beetle Epidemic is catastrophic, so silviculture methods include resiliency treatments and salvage logging in stands with excessive mortality Uneven-aged management in live stands with patch cuts or single tree selection

17. Overarching Science Assumptions Most spruce-fir stands in the project area are dominated by mature and over-mature trees Increasing species mix, decreasing tree size/age and decreasing stand density are indirect control tactics The scale of the current beetle epidemic is larger than any event seen in Colorado since European settlement (DeRose and Long 2012) Climate change, mainly changes in effective moisture influence beetle outbreaks and SAD (Worrall 2010) Beetle outbreak is stochastic and locations of future infestations are not quite predictable.

18. Silviculture Considerations Avoiding decreasing windfirmness by making patch cuts oblong and orienting with prevailing wind and avoid ridgetops and other areas with notably high winds In green stands uneven-aged management is the method to be used.

19. Methods - Analysis Approach Define ‘opportunity areas’ for treatment (Done) May use analysis of size and density to determine where beetle risk is higher and where treatments may be prioritized in the opportunity area Will use past timber sale data to estimate timber volumes Currently estimating 15-20 CCF/acre in salvage

20. Basic Science and Analysis Assumptions Range

21. Guiding Issues and Goals Maximize economic value and benefit local communities – Limit losses in range condition associated with treatment areas – Protect existing range improvements Communicate with affected individuals Ensure safety from falling trees

22. Range Considerations Most issues weed related and covered under botany analysis Design features will guide the implementation to avoid large impacts to range Range improvements (corrals, water developements, cattle guards, etc.) will be protected – The project implementation team will coordinate with district rangeland manager to identify and mitigate any conflicts prior to implementation

23. Basic Science and Analysis Assumptions Fuels

24. Guiding Issues and Goals Focus on public health and safety – Decrease fire hazard primarily related to any elevated risk of fire due to beetle infestation.

25. Overarching Science Assumptions Fire regimes in spruce are generally 200+ year fire frequencies and high severity, stand replacing fires Fire regimes in aspen depend on associated vegetation Generally, weather influences fire size more than fuels/stand conditions (Kulakowski and Veblen 2007) Beetle mortality was found to influence fire severity, but not size (Kulakowski and Veblen 2007)

26. Fuels Considerations Post-harvest fuels guided by design features in many categories (silviculture, soils, wildlife, slash piles) Treat post-harvest fuels in Management areas 1A, 1B, 1D (developed recreations sites, ski areas, utility corridors ) as per forest plan Pile burning (smoke) restrictions from CO Dept. of Public Health and Enviro. restrict pile burns near homes more

27. Prescribed Fire Considerations Broadcast burning will be used to stimulate aspen regeneration Aspen can be mixed with other species and so broadcast burning may occur in areas with a component of other tree species Broadcast burning may allow aspen to expand in area

28. Methods - Analysis Approach Largely qualitative rather than quantitative Linked to silviculture and air quality analyses

29. Basic Science and Analysis Assumptions Air Quality

30. Guiding Issues and Goals Focus on public health and safety Uphold pertinent laws and policy

31. Air Quality Law and Policy Federal Clean Air Act Colorado State Air Quality Regulations

32. Methods - Analysis Approach Analysis may be largely qualitative Effects will be bound by compliance with existing laws upon implementation

33. Basic Science and Analysis Assumptions Transportation

34. Guiding Issues and Goals Goals Maximize economic value Focus on public health and safety Solutions to Issues Minimize road construction through use of existing infrastructure Utilize best practices in road design to minimize environmental impacts No increases in open-road density

36. Overarching Assumptions Treatments will be focused on areas near existing roads Roads estimates based on area likely to be treated

37. Differences in Assumptions in Road Estimates Between Alternatives For Alternatives 2 and 4, treatments will likely occur within 1 mile of existing higher- standard NFS roads For Alternative 3, treatments will likely occur within ¼ mile of existing higher-standard NFS roads

38. Information Assumptions Based On Road construction and road reconstruction based on past timber project averages over the past 5 years Customized adjustments based on proximity of treatments to existing roads (e.g., treatments closer to existing roads would require less new construction)

40. Road Maintenance Levels (Ruiz 2005) Road Maintenance Level Description 1Closed except for intermittent service use 2High-clearance vehicles, discourage passenger cars 3Low-speed, single-lane with turnouts, low priority for comfort 4Moderate degree of user comfort; double- or single-lane, aggregate 5High degree of user comfort; double-lane, paved

41. Specific Assumptions in Road Estimates For tree removal buffer along open NFS roads for public health and safety, assume 1 mile temporary road construction for every 2,000 acres of treatment For treatments within ¼ mile of exiting ML3-4 roads, assume ratio of ¼ the average construction from past treatments For salvage/resiliency treatments beyond 1/4 mile of existing ML3-5 roads, assume the average construction ratio from past treatments

42. Basic Science and Analysis Assumptions Cultural Resources

43. Cultural Resources Overview Human occupation of West-Central Colorado spans at least 10,000 years Prehistoric use covers the Paleo-Indian, Archaic, Formative and Proto-historic periods, 8000 BC to 1800 AD  Anasazi left their mark on the landscape, as well as ancestors of the Ute Indians  Hunting and gathering were their primary adaptation to the upland environments  Sites are often hard to spot for the untrained eye  Often consist of stone artifacts, pottery, debris and features; such as projectile points, stone tools and fragments, pottery shards, fire hearths, game drives, and remnants of camping structures

44. Cultural Resources Overview Historic use began in earnest during the 19 th Century, and consisted primarily of activities associated with mining, historic travel routes, timber harvest, grazing and homesteading The CCC left many prime examples of their handiwork on the forests, such as roads, trails, bridges, guard stations, campgrounds.  Many are still in use today  You can even rent historic cabins  Or visit the many interpreted historic sites on the forests (see GMUG website for more info)

45. Guiding Issues and Goals: Cultural Resources Maximize economic value and benefit local communities – Maintain or improve cultural resource inventories – Protect known cultural resources during project implementation Consult with tribes, Colorado SHPO and interested parties Apply GIS predictive models for prehistoric and historic use of forests; refine for future use

46. Cultural Resource Considerations Utilize R2 Bark Beetle Programmatic Agreement for S. 106 Compliance  Relies on use of existing and predicted data  Requires notification to Colorado SHPO during DEIS phase (in progress)  Allows for cultural resource inventories to be conducted as part of implementation phase (prior to ground disturbance) Design features will guide the implementation to avoid impacts to cultural resources  Cultural resources will be protected  The project implementation team will coordinate with Forest and District Archaeologists to identify and mitigate any effects prior to implementation  Cultural resource locations will be kept confidential for internal use only

47. Basic Science and Analysis Assumptions Human uses – coming soon! Recreation Lands Special uses

48. Basic Science and Analysis Assumptions Socio-Economic

49. Guiding Issues and Goals Provide alternatives that are efficient (benefits greater than costs) Illustrate the effects to local communities affected by the management

50. Overarching Assumptions Effects occur over ten year period. Regional economic impacts are based on effects to jobs and labor income. An alternative is efficient if benefits are greater than costs. Expected effects based on timber market and restoration activities (limited effects to recreation and grazing). Benefits are revenue generated from timber sales and non-market benefits associated with restoration activities. Costs are based on restoration activities and road construction and maintenance.

51. Methods- Analysis Approach Explain the economics of the affected environment (population, demographics, income, employment). Address the consequences of project activities related to the alternatives, including the financial efficiency, economic impacts and non-market values. – Financial efficiency relates to the costs and revenues of doing the action. – Economic impacts are calculated using input-output models and relates to how the action affects the local economy in the surrounding area (as far as jobs and income). – Analysis of non-market values covers benefits and cost not associated with market transactions.

52. Extra Slides

53. Differences in Assumptions Between Alternatives? For Alternatives 2 is the proposed action and focuses on salvage and resiliency treatments A landscape level approach to treatments, in an effort to maintain green stands for longer Alternative 3 focuses on Public Health and Safety Does not specifically address causal agents (spruce beetle and SAD) Alternative 4 focuses on spruce salvage only, and avoids resiliency treatments Green stands would remain the same, and so vulnerability to spruce beetle attack continues to exist

54. Fuels Differences in Assumptions Between Alternatives? For Alternatives 2 and 4, lighter restrictions on completing pile burning For Alternatives 2 and 4, more able to use aerial ignition and burn lager blocks For Alternative 3, more restrictions on completing pile burning For Alternative 3, not able to use aerial ignition, so burn blocks smaller

55. Fuels over time – Hicke et al. 2012

56. Fire Behavior over time – Hicke et al. 2012

57. Information Roads Assumptions Based On Applied road construction and reconstruction based on past timber project averages over the past 5 years: GMUG 5-Year Average Data 1 mile temporary (Acre) 1 mile Reconstruction (Acre) 1 mile construction designed (Acre) NZ139244582 EZ2182251,165 WZ162NA AVG.173156582

58. Specific Assumptions in Road Estimates cont’d… Alt 2 & 4: assume 50% of all higher standard NFS roads (operational maintenance level 3-5) intersecting treatment areas would be maintained (priority) Alt 2 & 4: the appropriate ratio (capability/total treatment) of maintenance level 1-2 roads intersecting the treatment areas would be maintained, minus the reconstruction miles

59. Specific Assumptions in Road Estimates cont’d… Alt3 (public health and safety) will be within 0.25 miles of existing ML3-5 roads and 300' from ML2- 5 roads Alt3 would treat 75% of ML3-5 roads intersecting and 20% of ML1-2 roads