1. C ATALONIA : THE DIFFICULT PATH TOWARDS INDEPENDENCE Sebastian D. Baglioni Carleton University March 11, 2015

2. O UTLINE 1. Background and Context 2. Catalan Political Parties 3. Spanish Political Parties 4. Sociological Factors and Independence 5. The “Referendum for Independence” and the Spanish Constitutional Court 6. The “Process of Citizen Participation” 7. Results 8. Political Responsibilities and Alternatives

3. B ACKGROUND AND C ONTEXT The Spanish Constitution: the system of Autonomous Regions Catalonia : self-government and shared government autonomy and asymmetry L’Estatut de Catalunya 2006 Identity and Symbols Clarification and Separation of Powers Funding The Spanish Constitutional Court

4. C ATALAN N ATIONALIST P OLITICAL P ARTIES Convergencia i Unio – Unio Democratica de Catalunya (CiU), centre-right – 30.7% Nationalism and autonomism Pro-independence Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC), left – 13.7% Pro-independence Iniciative per Catalunya Verds (ICV), green-left – 9.9%* Catalan nationalism, federalism Esquerra Unida i Alternativa (EUiA), left – 9,9%* Pro-independence * In coalition

5. S PANISH P OLITICAL P ARTIES Partido Popular (PP) – conservatives Spanish Nationalism Autonomy Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) – socialist Federalism – asymmetric federalism “Plural Spain”

6. S OCIOLOGICAL FACTORS AND INDEPENDENCE

7. Source: Survey about the current political situation in Catalonia 2014 Centre d'Estudis d'Opinio - Generalitat de Catalunya

8. S OCIOLOGICAL F ACTORS AND I NDEPENDENCE Source: Survey about the current political situation in Catalonia 2014 Centre d'Estudis d'Opinio - Generalitat de Catalunya

9. T HE “R EFERENDUM FOR I NDEPENDENCE ” AND THE S PANISH C ONSTITUTIONAL C OURT Political Disputes and Constitutional Arguments Illegal status and political inaction Blur line between democracy and legality From a democratically binding referendum to a non-binding illegal consultation process

10. T HE “P ROCESS OF C ITIZEN P ARTICIPATION ” Two questions: a) Do you want Catalonia to become a State? (Yes/No); If the answer is in the affirmative: b) Do you want this State to be independent? (Yes/No).

11. T HE “P ROCESS OF C ITIZEN P ARTICIPATION ” Non-binding consultation Administration of the Process Transparency Legal Accusations

12. R ESULTS Referendum Results (Definitive) PercentageAbsolute Number YES-YES80.911.897.274 YES-NO10.02234.848 YES-Blank0.9722.755 NO4.49105.345 Blank0.5613.201 Others3.0572.032 Source: Generalitat de Catalunya (gencat.cat)

13. R ESULTS - T URNOUT Parliament Election 2010 58% Parliament Election 2010 68% Process of Citizen Participation 35% - 37% - 41% No census, no registration

14. R ESULTS Will for independence by vote intention to the Catalan Parliament YES (44.5%)NO (45.2%) PP0100 CiU81.211 Esquerra90.55.3 PSC11.386.8 ICV27.960.5 Ciutadans098.4 CUP85.44.2 Podemos15.780.4 S OURCE : S URVEY ABOUT THE CURRENT POLITICAL SITUATION IN C ATALONIA 2014 (D ECEMBER ) - C ENTRE D 'E STUDIS D 'O PINIO - G ENERALITAT DE C ATALUNYA

15. P OLITICAL R ESPONSIBILITIES AND A LTERNATIVES Plebiscitarian Elections Judicial Activism Political Gridlock

16. P OLITICAL R ESPONSIBILITIES AND A LTERNATIVES Building political dialogue Harmonizing democracy and legality Constitutional reform ? Reform of Title VIII Federalism (asymmetry)