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Presentation on theme: " 1 Jerry Velasquez, Ph.D. Senior Regional Coordinator International Strategy for Disaster Reduction United Nations Secretariat in Asia Pacific."— Presentation transcript:

1 1 Jerry Velasquez, Ph.D. Senior Regional Coordinator International Strategy for Disaster Reduction United Nations Secretariat in Asia Pacific (UNISDR) Briefing of Permanent Missions in New York on DRR in ASEAN

2 2 Rationale

3 3

4 4 Catastrophe losses are mostly borne by governments and households in developing countries…

5 5 …Partly because the private property insurance market is under-developed In Indonesia Earthquake insurance available for corporate and commercial customers (although low penetration) and almost non-existent for residential dwellings 2% of property policies have EQ coverage …Partly because risks are not well understood

6 6 HFA Report 2007-2009

7 7 HFA Priority Area 1: Governance Ensure that disaster risk reduction is a national and local priority with strong institutional basis for implementation

8 8 HFA Priority Area 2: Risk identification Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning

9 9 HFA Priority Area 3: Knowledge Use knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels

10 10 HFA Priority Area 4: Vulnerability Reduction Reducing the underlying risk factors

11 11 HFA Priority Area 5 Strengthen disaster preparedness for effective response

12 12 Background and Method

13 13 What is risk? Risk can be defined by a probability distribution (empirical data) Example: What is the risk of more than 20 deaths per million? 40%

14 14 Country Risk Profiles: Criteria Assessment conducted - hazard-specific and country-level perspectives Reported disaster data for various hazards (EM-DAT) - used for risk assessment Physical and social settings of each country - provided in brief EM-DAT criteria for recording a disaster event –10 or more people reported killed –100 people reported affected –Declaration of a state emergency –Call for international assistance

15 15 Comparing Disaster Loss Databases

16 16 Country Profile Philippines as an Example

17 17 Philippines: Socio-economic impacts and trends PHL experience more storms than other hazards and they cause the most number of deaths The number of disaster events is increasing but the total number of deaths are decreasing

18 18 All hazards affect a large number of population The number of affected population is slightly increasing Philippines: Socio-economic impacts and trends

19 19 Floods and storms cause the most economic damage, followed by forest fires Economic damage is increasing rapidly (18 times more since 1970) Philippines: Socio-economic impacts and trends

20 20 The 20-year return period (an event with 5 per cent probability of exceedance) loss for all natural hazards is $1.208 billion (0.37 per cent of GDP PPP), while the 200-year return period (an event with 0.5 per cent probability of exceedance, generally corresponds to a catastrophic event) loss is $2.14 billion (0.66 per cent of GDP PPP).

21 21 Key Study Findings

22 22 Key study findings - ASEAN - history of devastating disasters with huge socio-economic losses Almost all types of natural hazards are present, including: –Cyclones (tropical strong), floods, landslides, eqs., tsunamis, droughts, forest-fires Cyclonic storm- most dominant disaster, followed by Eqs, tsunamis, floods, epidemics, landslides, droughts, volcanic eruptions and forest-fires During (1970-2009), 1,211 reported disasters have caused 414,927 deaths Disaster Matrix by Country, ASEAN CountryHazards Earthquake Flood Landslide Drought Storm (typhoon/ cyclones) Volcano Forest Fire Tsunami Brunei XXXXXX Cambodia XXXXXXXXX Indonesia XXX XX XXXXXXXX Lao PDR XXXXXX XX Malaysia XXXXXXXX X Myanmar XXXXXXX XXXXX Philippines XXX XXXXXXXXX Singapore XXXX Thailand XXXXXX XX Vietnam XXXXXX XXXXX ASEAN XXXXXXX XXXXX

23 23 Reported disasters: 36% - floods, 32% - cyclonic storms, 9% - earthquakes, 7% - Landslides Quantitative risk assessment performed confirms the following risk patterns: CountryRisk Patterns CambodiaFloods represent the dominant risk followed by drought Indonesia Forest (wild) fires, earthquakes and tsunamis represent the dominant risk followed by floods, volcanoes, droughts, and; landslides Lao PDRCyclonic storms, floods and drought are the dominant risks MalaysiaFlood and forest fires are the dominant risk Myanmar Cyclonic storms are the dominant risk followed by tsunamis, floods and forest-fires Philippines Typhoons (cyclonic storms) are the dominant risk followed by floods, earthquakes, volcanoes, landslides, and droughts ThailandFloods are the dominant risk followed by tsunamis, and storms VietnamStorms are the dominant risk followed by floods, and droughts Brunei and Singapore No disaster data is available Key study findings…(Cont.)

24 24 Key Study Findings - Social Vulnerability (SV) Relative SV ranking- estimated based on Av. number of people killed/year/million Period 1970-2009: Myanmar (highest) relative SV, more than 3.5 times that of Indonesia (the second highest) SV ranking: Myanmar (highest) followed by Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Lao PDR, Cambodia, and Malaysia Comparative analysis of social vulnerability for ASEAN

25 25 Key Findings – Economic Vulnerability (EV) Economic vulnerability (EV): measured in terms of likelihood of the economic losses resulting from the various disasters (in terms of relative SV ranking) EV ranking of each country: estimated in terms of likely economic losses that an event with a 200-year return period (0.5% AEP) would impact as a % of country GDP Myanmar (highest) EV ranking followed by Lao PDR, Indonesia, Cambodia, Vietnam, Philippines, Thailand and Malaysia Due to paucity of economic loss disaster data, the EV analysis could not be carried out for Brunei and Singapore Economic Loss Potential for annual probability of exceedance of 0.5 per cent

26 26 Status of DRR Initiatives in ASEAN

27 27 Member State HFA ReportSNAPNPDRR LawDRR-CCA linkSafe Schools and Hospitals Campaign Resilient Cities Campaign Brunei 2009-2011 draft Under development None 2 schools 1 hospital 3 TOTAL Cambodia SNAP 2008-2013under development Under development 18 hospitals 18 TOTAL Indonesia 2009-2011 draft NAP 2006-2009PLANAS PRB2007None yet13,849 schools 154 hospitals 14,003 TOTAL 2 Lao PDR 2009-2011 draft SNAP 2003-20201 school 1 hospital 2 TOTAL Malaysia under development 11,174 schools 3,840 hospitals 15,014 TOTAL 3 Myanmar 2009-2011 draft MAP 2009-20151 school 1 TOTAL Philippines 2009-2011 draft SNAP 2009-2019NP2010Ongoing64,426 schools 2,304 hospitals 66,730 total 74 Singapore Thailand 2009-2011 draft SNAP 2010-20192008through UNPAF 2012-2016 116 schools 4 hospitals 120 TOTAL 9 Viet Nam 2009-2011 draft NAP 2009-2020Under development under development Ongoing1 school 3 hospitals 4 TOTAL 5

28 28 COUNTRYTOTALPROVINCECITY/MUNICIPALITY Indonesia2 Banda Aceh, Makassar Malaysia3 Kuala Lumpur, Melaka, Putrajaya Thailand9 Bangkok; Huysatyai Community, Prachuap Khiri Kha; Muang Chiang Rai Municipality; Muang District, Udonthani; Muang Had Yai Municipality, Songkhla; Muang Samutprakarn, Samutprakarn; Patong; TAO Mae Poon, Uttaradit; TAO Toong Yang, Uttaradit Vietnam5 Ho Chi Minh, Ha Noi, Hai Phong, Can Tho and Da Nang ASEAN TOTAL93 Resilient City Campaign Sign Ups in ASEAN

29 29 Philipp ines 74 Abra Albay Bukidnon Cagayan Camarines Norte CebuAlcantara Municipality, Alcoy Municipality, Alegria Municipality, Aloguinsan Municipality, Asturias Municipality, Badian Municipality, Balamban Municipality, Barili Municipality, Bayawan City, Bogo Municipality, Boljoon Municipality, Carmen Municipality, Catmon Municipality, Compostela Municipality, Consolacion Municipality, Cordova Municipality, Dalaguete Municipality, Dumanjug Municipality, Ginatilan Municipality, Liloan Municipality, Madridejos Municipality, Malabuyoc Municipality, Medellin Municipality, Minglanilla Municipality, Moalboal Municipality, Oslob Municipality, Pilar Municipality, Pinamungahan Municipality, Poro Municipality, Ronda Municipality, Samboan Municipality, San Fernando Municipality, San Francisco Municipality, Santa Fe Municipality, Sogod Municipality, Tabuelan Municipality, Talisay City, Toledo Municipality, Tuburan Municipality, Tudela Municipality Cotabato Iloilo*Dumangas Municipality Ilocos Sur Kalinga Maguindanao Metro ManilaMakati City, Malabon City, Manila City, Marikina City, Pasay City, Pasig City, Quezon City Mountain Northern Samar Nueva Viscaya Occidental Mindoro Oriental Mindoro Palawan Pangasinan*Dagupan City RizalAntipolo City, San Mateo South CotabatoSaint Bernard Municipality Southern Leyte Zambales Zamboanga Del Norte

30 30 ASEAN-UN Partnership on DRM

31 31 3 rd ASEAN-UN Summit October 2010, Hanoi, Vietnam

32 32 ASEAN Summit Outcome Leaders welcomed the adoption of the Joint Declaration on ASEAN-UN Collaboration on Disaster Management and agreed to prepare and implement the “ASEAN-UN Strategic Plan of Action on Disaster Management 2011- 2015” Possible consideration at ASEAN Summit in Jakarta, May 2011

33 33 ASEAN-UN Summit Outcome Adopted the Joint Declaration on ASEAN-UN Collaboration on Disaster Management Agreed to prepare and implement the “ASEAN-UN Strategic Plan of Action on Disaster Management 2011-2015” First draft to be made by ASEAN Committee on Disaster Management then sent to UN for review Possible consideration at ASEAN Summit in Jakarta, May 2011

34 34 ASEAN-UN Strategic Plan of Action on Disaster Management 2011-2015 To cover Risk and vulnerability assessment Preparedness Early warning and monitoring Prevention and mitigation Response and recovery Aspects of reconstruction and development

35 35 Ways Forward

36 36 AADMER Priorities Implementing National Action Plans on Disaster Risk Reduction and Strengthening Legal and Institutional Frameworks Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Reduction in Education and Health Sectors Urban Disaster Risk Reduction Public Education, Awareness and Advocacy

37 37 Further the implementation of AADMER in climate change context Finish HFA reviews for 2009-2011 and upload the reports before the Global platform in May With 8 of 10 countries having developed Strategic National Action Plans (SNAP), how to convert SNAPs into DRR investment plans How to participate in the resilient cities and the safe schools and hospitals campaign, conduct national launches and follow-up actions and promote peer learning through existing ASEAN exchange activities and meetings

38 38 Further the implementation of AADMER in climate change context Development of an ASEAN SAFE SCHOOLS PROGRAMME with the possible leadership of Indonesia and Brunei Continue strengthening data collection and sharing for disaster risk assessments to serve planning and decision-making. The development of an ASEAN DRR-CCA programme, promoting linkages between DRR and CCA programmes within ASEAN. An immediate area of such as programme could be disaster risk assessment in the context of climate change projections.

39 39 Strengthen ASEAN-UN collaboration in Disaster Risk Management Collaboration between ASEAN and UNISDR in the follow-up of the ASEAN-UN Summit Joint Declaration in Hanoi last year. What are your suggestions to prepare the ASEAN-United Nations Strategic Plan of Cooperation on Disaster Management (2011- 2015) and its implementation How to sustain tripartite partnership between ASEAN-UNISDR and Development Partners to support the implementation of the ASEAN-UN Strategic Plan of Cooperation on Disaster Management.

40 40 Global Platform With President of Indonesia’s leadership as Chair of ASEAN, encourage participation of ASEAN members states in the GP and highlight their respective achievements Present the ASEAN-UN Strategic Plan on DRM 2011-2015 as an example to the world Present and discuss AADMER as the first legally binding instrument on DRM for future of HFA

41 41 Thank you UNISDR Secretariat Asia Pacific UNESCAP Building - 8th Floor, Section A Rajdamnern Nok Avenue - 10400 Bangkok - Thailand Phone:+66-2-288-2750 Fax:+66-2-288-1050

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