1. Using Aggregated Federal Data and Local Shipping Data to Model Freight Alabama Michael Anderson Civil Engineering The University of Alabama in Huntsville

2. Modeling Goals Develop a freight OD matrix Freight profile: scalable to the State, MPO or region to identify potential freight projects National Freight Data Local surveys Regional, State and MPO Level Analysis

3. Integrated Freight Planning Framework 3 FAF 2 Data FAZ TRANPLAN Distribution & Volumes Input to ATIM TRANPLAN / ATIM Interface System Performance Measures TRAN -PLAN ATIM Freight Analysis Zones FAZ Forecast by Mode Planning Factors – Value of Shipments, Personal Income, Population/Employment Industry Sector Analysis (Mode Dependent) Passenger Car Data Trip Generation Trip Distribution Modal Split/ Assignment Industry Surveys Version 1.6

4. Statewide Application: Alabama

5. Freight Analysis Framework, Ver. 2 114 Zones 17 Ports of Entry 43 Commodities 7 Modes Disaggregation to county level Based on Personal Income and VOS

6. Pass Through Freight

7. Alabama IE, EI and EE Flows

8. Trucks/day ALDOT Tons/year modelTons/dayTons/truck Pounds/ truck I657,76852,071,250142,66118.3736,730 I594,75847,408,170129,88527.3054,601 I2014,53138,163,040104,5567.2014,390 I856,07042,259,400115,77919.0738,149 I10E6,33413,234,48036,2595.7211,450 I10W9,97922,101,76060,5536.0712,136 I59W8,875107,198,800293,69533.0966,188 Initial Validation at State Boundary Weighted average of tons per truck crossing Alabama’s borders is 15 tons. Differences in weight results from differences in commodities being shipped different directions.

9. Application of FAF2 – Statewide Model Internal to Zone 1 Internal to Zone 2 From Zone 1 to Zone 2 From Zone 2 to Zone 1 From Zone 1 to locations outside Alabama From Zone 2 to locations outside Alabama From outside Alabama to Zone 1 From outside Alabama to Zone 2 National Pass-Through

10. FAF2 - Alabama Statewide Model

11. MPO Application: Mobile, AL

12. Mobile, AL: Convergence of two Interstates: I-10 running EW I-65 running NS

13. Mobile’s Freight Reality Class A Railroads in Mobile Mouth of Alabama’s inland Waterways; 4500 miles of system via Tenn-Tom 25 steam ship agencies 4 foreign trade zones 60 trucking companies 4 bulk liquid terminals 13 warehouses, 9 of which are US Customs bonded 16 shipbuilding or ship repair companies

14. Freight Modeling None! State of Alabama used “estimated” percentages for truck trips Truck trips were estimated percentage as a Non Home Based trips Trucks are not factored in the External to External trips, or Internal / External Trips No other mode than cars are modeled

15. Local Data What can industry input provide when developing a long-term freight plan? –Gain insight from companies to plan for pattern shifts, network realignments, or current industry trends. –Build relationships with business leaders so they become a vital source of planning intelligence.

16. Data Collection Tool

17. Key Data Points 1.Business description 2.Number of employees 3.Mode of shipments 4.Number of deliveries received by mode weekly 5.Number of shipments by mode generated weekly 6.Origins of inbound deliveries (at least compass direction) 7.Destinations of outbound shipments (at least compass direction) 8.Size of shipment by mode (Full load, Less than full load) 9. Weight of shipments in pounds by mode (average/normal) 10. Size of facility in square feet (under roof) 11. Expansion plans for forecast period (5 years) 12. Value of Goods (dollars) 13. Actual annual volume of goods for prior year (should approximate Q5+Q6 x 52) 14. Forecasted annual volume of goods for next year 15. Transportation problems at their location 16. Transportation problems in the region

18. Conclusions to Local Data Collection The information gathered through this process, along with information on commodity flows from around the country, allowed the MPO to produce an intelligent estimate of freight movement within the study area and resulted in a validated transportation model.

19. Trip Purposes External-External Nation-Alabama Nation-Mobile County Alabama-Mobile County Port-Nation Port-Alabama Port-Mobile County Internal to Mobile

20. Mobile Freight Assignment Combination of FAF2 data and Regional Freight Profile Freight OD Matrix Entered as Preload

21. Overall Conclusions New Ability to Model Truck Trips –Scalable : Regional, Statewide, Local Use of FAF2 forecasts Local Freight Data Analyze projects considering freight impacts

22. Questions? Michael Anderson 256-824-5028 mikea@cee.uah.edu Office for Freight, Logistics & Transportation