1. A brief summary based on the National Park Service Climate Change Scenarios Planning workshop held in Juneau, AK February 2012

2. There is now unequivocal scientific evidence that our planet is warming How this warming will affect climate systems around the globe is an enormously complex question Uncertainty and variability are inevitable Climate change presents significant risks to natural and cultural resources Understanding how to address uncertainty is an important part of climate change planning http://geology.com/news/labels/Global-Warming.html

3. Scenario planning allows managers to address multiple possible futures that are: ▪ Relevant ▪ Divergent ▪ Challenging ▪ Plausible

4.  What changes are most likely?  What changes will have the greatest impact?  What are we best able to predict?  How can we adapt to those changes? www.snap.uaf.edu

5. Scenarios are linked to SNAP models  Basic climate models  Linked climate models ▪ Season length ▪ Shifting plants and animals (biomes and ecosystems) ▪ Soil temperature and permafrost ▪ Water availability ▪ Forest fire  Models of how people use land and resources  Other models linked to climate and human behavior Soil temperature at one meter depth: 1980’s, 2040’s, and 2080’s (Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab, UAF)

6. Southeast Alaska temperature projections for Dec- Jan for selected decades (5 model average, A1B scenario) Winter 2090s Winter 2050s Winter 2010s

7. Southeast Alaska Day of Freeze Projections 5 Model Average – A1B scenario

8. Southeast Alaska Day of Thaw Projections 5 Model Average – A1B scenario

9. Southeast Alaska Precipitation Projections (Annual Decadal Average) 5 Model Average – A1B scenario

10. Explaining Scenarios: A Basic GBN Scenario Creation Process What are the implications of these scenarios for our strategic issue, and what actions should we take in light of them? What is the strategic issue or decision that we wish to address? What critical forces will affect the future of our issue? How do we combine and synthesize these forces to create a small number of alternative stories? As new information unfolds, which scenarios seem most valid? Does this affect our decisions and actions? The 5 key steps required in any scenario planning process Global Business Network (GBN) - A member of the Monitor Group ©2010 Monitor Company Group

11. What is the strategic issue or decision that we wish to address? How can NPS managers best preserve the natural and cultural resources and values within their jurisdiction in the face of climate change? How will climate change effects impact the landscapes within which management units are placed over the next 50 to 100 years? To answer this challenge, we need to explore a broader question: Klondike Gold Rush Nat’l Historical Park Photo credits: Jay Cable Sitka National Historical Park http://www.nps.gov/sitk/index.htm Glacier Bay National Park Photo credit: Stuart Edwards

12. What critical forces will affect the future of our issue? Global Business Network (GBN) -- A member of the Monitor Group ©2010 Monitor Company Group Critical forces generally have unusually high impact and unusually high uncertainty Extreme Weather Events (storms/precipitation) -20%+50% Seasonality of Water Flow Historical flow/timing abnormal flow/timing

13. Driver 1 Driver 2 Combining two selected drivers creates four possible futures 1 2 4 3

14. Global Business Network (GBN) - A member of the Monitor Group ©2010 Monitor Company Group Senior commitment, international alignment, long term perspectives Lack of senior commitment, varied approaches/alignment, short term concerns Broad understanding Heightened urgency Widespread indifference Competing concerns “Big problems, big efforts” “Riots and revolution” “Wheel- spinning” “Is anyone out there?” Nesting each story in a social framework creates 16 possibilities:

15. Socio- Political Describe This World in 2030 Major Impacts on the Bioregion Issues Facing Management Bioregion Climate _______________ Step 3: Synthesize The 16 possible futures created in the preceding steps must be narrowed down to 3-4 scenarios that are relevant, divergent, challenging, and pertinent. Each has it’s own narrative (story).

16.  More and more annual disasters are striking SE AK, and gov’t and people are working together to deal with major issues and to find and coordinate responses.  Community health and economic health are both emphasized, meaning not just solutions such as starting a hatchery, but also finding holistic solutions to maintain ways of life.  If fisheries and forestry are lost, what is replacing them? Sustainable tourism? Selective logging? Renewable energy, Biomass? Tidal? Wind? Geothermal? Hydro? All these resources are so close together, it’s unusual.  Individuals all feel interdependence and feel their important role in the communities.  Seasonal crop failures balanced by other crops – shifting resources rather than eliminated.  A combination of fire and floods destroy the cultural resources in Skagway and it becomes a ghost town and a more remotely managed park  50% of the small communities have to evacuate due to natural disasters, and are reabsorbed into other communities.  Management faces infrastructure upgrades, need to be more disaster resistant  Collapse of commercial fishery  Reduced potable water availability  Loss of life – or shifting from death from social ills to death via disaster.  Transportation disruptions with ferries, airports..  Energy, buildings, waste disposal, social health networks, communications  Willingness and ability to create and pay for engineered solutions, eg hatcheries  Mariculture?  Logging out the dead trees, but planting something that matches new ecosystem conditions  Decide how to switch from wilderness to more managed areas mixed with areas of dynamic change  Parks are now managed for different resources. There used to be glaciers in Yosemite, but people still go there. Different visitor experience is being managed in different parks – to see new energy sources, to see glaciers in Wrangell St Elias., from soft adventure to extreme adventure.  More flight-seeing to see reduced glaciers  Major shifts in habitats, species, and tourism. Recolonization by willow in deglaciated areas, attracts moose and deer. Forest becomes grassland or engineered forests. Might attract elk, bison, grouse. Mountain goats and other species move higher.  Health emergencies help spark adaptations and change.  Reduction in timber productivity  Invasive species that may wipe out local species, in addition to more benign range shift.

17. Robust: Pursue only those options that would work out well (or at least not hurt you too much) in any of the four scenarios OR Bet the Farm / Shaping: Make one clear bet that a certain future will happen — and then do everything you can to help make that scenario a reality OR Hedge Your Bets / Wait and See: Make several distinct bets of relatively equal size OR Core / Satellite: Place one major bet, with one or more small bets as a hedge against uncertainty, experiments, and real options Hedge Your Bets Core Robust Satellite Bet the Farm Hedge Your Bets Core Robust Satellite Bet the Farm

18.  Assess the need for fire and flood plans  Mitigate natural degraded habitat  Increased collaboration between tribes and government  Refer to climate change when making plans  Emergency op plans for fire, glaciers, fjords, …  Proactively protect, e.g., roads/trails away from sensitive spots  Reduce cost by more energy- efficient utilities/opportunities  Revitalize programs to cover recreation shoulder seasons  Community forums  Vulnerability assessments for culturally-sensitive sites  Monitor stream flow, forest health, glacier positions/mass, land cover change  Risk assessment for glacial outburst floods, emergency planning  Conduct culturally-sensitive subsistence harvest surveys to ensure access  Raise awareness at a local level of climate change impacts  Adjust regulations to address sub needs, seasons, bag limits  Evaluate capacity to adjust to changing demands

19.  Erosion of traditional sites  Conflicts over wildlife uses  Conflicts over subsistence regulations  Timing of fish runs/bird migrations off  Longer season for hiking trail use  Historical resources damaged or lost  Loss of infrastructure (washouts, etc) – communities lost/relocated  Loss of subsistence resources (salmon, berries, …)  New subsistence species/resources (bison, deer, fish, cougar, elk)  Loss of seasonal subsistence patterns  Failure of community networks

20.  Increased outreach and education to communities  Risk assessment for vulnerable cultural resources & recovery plan  Document oral histories and make accessible  Assessment and management of newly recovered cultural resources  Traditional Ecological Knowledge in planning  Co-management  Invasive management  Create cooperation at local level  Plan for budget issues  Value-based management  How to make hard decisions?  Values are changing—need a transparent decision process