1. Climate change integrated assessment methodology for cross-sectoral adaptation and vulnerability in Europe Funded under the European Commission Seventh Framework Programme Contract Number: 244031 Impacts of climate and socio-economic change using the Integrated Assessment Platform For further information contact Paula Harrison (email: Paula.Harrison@ouce.ox.ac.uk) or Ian Holman (email: i.holman@cranfield.ac.uk) or visit the project website (www.climsave.eu)

2. Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe www.CLIMSAVE.eu Presentation structure Using the Integrated Assessment Platform for scenario analysis. Scenario combinations (Europe & Scotland). Impact indicators. Results: – Climate change only; – Climate and socio-economic change. Conclusions.

3. Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe www.CLIMSAVE.eu Using the IAP for scenario analysis The CLIMSAVE IA Platform was used to run different combinations of: – Climate change only (assuming baseline socio-economics) – Climate and socio-economic change Scenario selection areas on the (left) European and (right) Scottish IA Platform

4. Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe www.CLIMSAVE.eu Scenario combinations European scenarios (50 runs): – Low emissions scenario (B1) and low climate sensitivity for 5 GCMs (5 runs); – High emissions scenario (A1) and high climate sensitivity for 5 GCMs (5 runs); – Above climate scenarios combined with the four CLIMSAVE socio-economic scenarios (40 runs).

5. Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe www.CLIMSAVE.eu Scenario combinations Scottish scenarios (30 runs): – across the range of UK Climate Projections; – from the 10 th percentile annual temperature increase associated with low emissions to the 90 th percentile annual temperature increase associated with high emission (6 runs); – Above climate scenarios combined with the four CLIMSAVE socio-economic scenarios (24 runs).

6. Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe www.CLIMSAVE.eu Impact indicators Thirteen indicators representing the 6 sectors analysed: – Area of artificial surfaces – Biodiversity Vulnerability Index – Extensively farmed area – Food production – Forest area – Intensity index – Intensively farmed area – Irrigation usage – Landuse diversity – People flooded by a 1 in 100 year event – Unmanaged land – Water availability – Water Exploitation Index

7. Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe www.CLIMSAVE.eu Results (climate change only) Europe Good degree of confidence in the direction of change for most indicators.

8. Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe www.CLIMSAVE.eu Results (climate change only) Scotland Reasonable degree of confidence in the direction of change for most indicators at the national scale

9. Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe www.CLIMSAVE.eu Results (climate and socio-economic change) Europe Increasing uncertainty in the direction of change at both the European and regional scales

10. Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe www.CLIMSAVE.eu Results (climate and socio-economic change) Scotland Increasing uncertainty in the direction of change at both the national and regional scales

11. Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe www.CLIMSAVE.eu Significance of impacts Europe - between 82% and 92% of indicator-scenario combinations were found to be statistically significantly different from the baseline for Europe and the four regions Scotland - between 65% and 97% of indicator-scenario combinations were found to be statistically significantly different from the baseline for Scotland and the four regions. These results clearly show that Europe and Scotland will be significantly influenced by future change.

12. Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe www.CLIMSAVE.eu Cross-sectoral summary (Europe)

13. Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe www.CLIMSAVE.eu Cross-sectoral summary (Scotland)

14. Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe www.CLIMSAVE.eu Conclusions Reasonable confidence in the direction of change due to climate change for most indicators at all scales. Socio-economic change leads to increasing uncertainty in the direction of change at all scales. Uncertainty increases with decreasing scale. Non-climatic pressures, such as future socio-economic change, may be at least as, if not more, important than climate change.