1. Vulnerability of Human Organizations ENEAs Research The presentation is an Intellectual Property of the author. Adam Maria Gadomski http://erg4146.casaccia.enea.it Research Center Casaccia, 05 June 2006 ENTE PER LE NUOVE TECNOLOGIE, LENERGIA E LAMBIENTE Unità di Calcolo e Modellistica High-Intelligence & Decision Research Group The CAMO Workshop on Complex Networks and Infrastructure Protection, 2006

2. CONTENS EXPERIMENTS Real Case Study Modeling Results Simulation Experiments CONCLUSIONS Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006 INTRODUCTION ENEAs Research Objectives Context & Application Domains THEORETICAL BASES Basic Strategy TOGA Meta-Theory Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEAs Research © 2006, A.M.Gadomski ENEA.. All stuff may be freely distributed in its full original format, if selected ideas are to be published in another format, a reference to the original source and to the author must be evidenced, Intellectual Rights reserved. No permission is granted to download and save professional images or any other material from these pages other than for citation purposes. These material is representing the opinions of the contributor, but not necessarily of ENEA.

3. Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006 Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEAs Research ENEAs Research & Technology Development Objectives Long term research objectives (since 1990) Development of the Modeling Framework of a Cognitive Synthetic/Abstract Intelligence by the theory development and simulation experiments Middle and short term RTD objectives (2001- 2009) - Development of Intelligent Organization Cognitive Models - Identification of Vulnerabilities of Human Organizations - Simulation & Validation Experiments, test cases based (in frame of IRRIIS and CRESCO Projects).

4. Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006 Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEAs Research Three Layers Model of an Critical Infrastructure ENEAs R&T Development Objectives CyberLayer OrganisationalLayer Intra-dependency Inter-dependency PhysicalLayer [Bologna, Balducelli, 2002]

5. ENEAs R&T Development Objectives Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006 Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEAs Research PROBLEMS Identification and Improvement of human & artificial organizations: Functions Processes Structures & their Computationability [ Gadomski] … Hierarchical Decomposition (?) CyberLayer PhysicalLayer OrganisationalLayer

6. Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006 Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEAs Research Context & Application Domains: Socio-Cognitive Engineering Cognitive ---> Socio-Cognitive Modeling ---> Technological Contexts Intelligence ---> Decision-Making Modeling ---> in High-Risk Contexts Development platform: Intelligent Agents Technologies + Systemics Design Methodology Expected Application Domains: Organizational Layer (IRRIIS) What-if Simulations (CRESCO) IDSSs and Intelligent Networks Reinforcement of Organizational Intelligence. Especially for Large Complex Critical Infrastructures Protection. involving

7. Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006 Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEAs Research Complexity of Human Organization Layer Multi-dimensional attributes space Complex network of interactions Continuous & Discrete Dynamics Interactions with dynamic physical & social environment Intelligent knowledge-based and interest-based human nodes Autonomy of nodes Emotional and Body contribution components Cognitive factors: ill measurable, observable and monitored It requires a new complex computational systemic methodology for the modeling. Physics based statist. models (primitive intelligence) New modeling paradigms (high intelligence)

8. Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006 Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEAs Research THEORETICAL BASES: Specification Strategy Generic Research Strategy hypothesis: Top-down Layered and Goal- driven Knowledge Acquisition Modeling Implementation Case-Based Validation Objectives … Required: Completeness, Congruence & Trust Partial Results Final Results

9. Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006 Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEAs Research THEORETICAL BASES TOGA (Top-down Object-based Goal-oriented Approach) is a formal goal- oriented knowledge ordering meta-theory, its objective is to enable identification and design of complex systems & their computer simulation. It has three basic components: - Theory of Abstract Objects (TAO) is a first level and a basic domain independent conceptualization system and a consensus building platform; -Knowledge Conceptualization System (KNOCS), It includes the TOGAs ontology, i.e. axiomatic assumptions and basic conceptualization frameworks for the definition and decompositions of the real-world problem into an intelligent agent (IA) and domains of IA goal-oriented activities, i.e. the triple: (Intelligent Entity, Environment, Interactions) Methodological Rules System (MRUS) for the specification (if not existing yet) or identification (if existing) of complex systems and problems; it indicates how TAO and KNOCS have to be used during the conceptual identification, specification and solution of real word problems.

10. Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006 Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEAs Research Essential Paradigms for Organization Modeling URP (Universal Reasoning Paradigm) is based on the application of the data processing scheme to the human goal-oriented reasoning. It defines elementary mind cell and its components: Information, Preferences and Knowledge. Data – are everything what is/can be processed. Information, I - data which represent a specific property of the domain of human or artificial agent's activity. Preferences, P - Preference is an ordered relation among two properties of a real or abstract domain of activity of a cognitive agent. It indicates a property with higher utility or subjective importance. Knowledge, K - every abstract property of a human or artificial agent which has ability to process/transform a (quantitatively/qualitatively) information into other information. Every new Information is processed by Knowledge: I n = K jn ( I n ), j=1, …J, for the domain, where choice of K j depends on max.preferred state: max{ P (I n )} == Goal_state, and n indicates a conceptualization point-of-view. Fig. The IPK cell it is an elementary mind cell in TOGA. I K P goal Domain of Activity n

11. Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006 Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEAs Research Essential Paradigms for Organization Modeling UMP (Universal Management Paradigm) defines necessary components of the management process and their main interrelations according to. It includes a cooperating-manager environment from the subjective perspective of a pre-selected decision-making manager. The figure is also a definition of characteristic property of a management role. MANAGER INFORMER EXECUTOR informationtasks ADVISOR expertises COOPERATING MANAGER cooperation tasksinformation Knowledge Preferences The same structure SUPERVISOR Domain of management (Domain of activities) ROLE def. IPK based definitions of the relative roles and their main interrelations: role ( competences, responsibility, privileges ). Competence – professional knowledge Responsibility – preferences resulting from: tasks, duties in a preselected domain Privileges - access to the information and executive power. Every element of the UMP structure is functional, subjective, incremental and recursive.

12. Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006 Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEAs Research Identification of Vulnerability and Trust The presented modeling frames enable identification of different types of organizational vulnerability: on individual levels, for group d-m, and cooperative intra-organizational types. Using IPK I K P goal Domain of Activity n We may distinguish: - Not sufficient information - Not proper preferences -Not adequate competences (knowledge). - Improper communication Using UMP MANAGER INFORMER EXECUTOR informationtasks ADVISOR expertises COOPERATING MANAGER cooperation tasksinformation Knowledge Preferences The same structure SUPERVISOR Domain of management (Domain of activities) Vulnerabilities

13. Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006 Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEAs Research Integrated TOGA Modeling Framework DOMAIN OF ACTIVITY/INTERVENTIONS A B C Executors, informers Experts Supervisor Manager Coordinator

14. Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006 Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEAs Research EXPERIMENTS Real Cases Study Modeling Results Simulation experiments Social Consequences Human Errors Human Factors Modeling for Simulation Identification sequence:

15. Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006 Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEAs Research Analyzed Test Cases 1. Blackout Italy/Suisse, 28 september 2003 2. Chernobyl disaster 3. Katrina hurricane 4. Airport Linate accident 5. Tsunami: international scale catastrophe –Indian Ocean

16. Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006 Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEAs Research Modeling of Vulnerabilities Path Identification of the Organizations Involved (object-based) Identif. of Roles: - Information acquisition and execution capacities - Responsability and competences (IPK) Cause - Consequence Tables Building Identification of vulnerabilities in terms of UMP and organizational IPK. User trust evaluation/assessment

17. Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006 Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEAs Research Test Case: Application of UMP ITALIAN ELECTRIC SISTEM Involved organizations GRTN tasks Ministero dell Economia information Aceaelectrabel Commissioni Tecniche ENEL Disaster domain observationsactions Requets /expertises Requets /expertises

18. Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006 Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEAs Research TSUNAMI PTWC, USGS, ITIC tasks information IOC, ITIC, CCR ONU information tasks MD, SMC NOAA PTWS Disaster domain observations actions Requets /expertises Requets /expertises 1. Supervisor Onu : la sua supervisione si realizza mediante lo IOC; 2. Manager Ptws : coordinatore dellattività dei centri operativi; 3. Advisor Noaa : centro specializzato che si occupa della rilevazione degli tsunami nellOceano Pacifico; 4. Cooperating manager Ioc, Itic, Ccr : centri di monitoraggio che assistono il Ptws nella fase di coordinamento delle attività; 5. Informer Ptwc, Usgs, Itic : si occupa di informare i paesi e le popolazioni che affacciano sull'Oceano Pacifico, sul rischio tsunami 6. Executor Md, Smc : dipartimenti locali responsabili della gestione dellallarme.

19. Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006 Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEAs Research Blackout Italy/Suisse I KP IPK ETRANS Objects and relations vulnerable I KP IPK GRTN We observe different conflicts of points of view between cooperating organizations - A common tasks/roles platform is required. I KP IPK PTWS IPK PTWC, USGS, ITIC IPK MD, SMC IPK ITIC I KP I KP I KP Examples: Interactions between organizations

20. Ruoli Casi Supervisor ManagerCooperating Manager AdvisorInformerExecutor It alian Blackout Chernobyl Linate Katrina Tsunami Identification of vulnerability on the IPK level and according to the UMP roles. RISULTS Legenda: Il problema si è verificato sul livello delle Informazioni Nessun valore dominante Il problema si è verificato sul livello delle Preferenze Il problema si è verificato sul livello delle Conoscenze Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEAs Research Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006

21. RISULTS Qualitative synthesis of the causes of losses during the Emergency Management of analyzed cases. Legenda: 0 – Non evitabili 1 – Evitabili Non essenziale per lo scenario della Risposta Essenziale per lo scenario della Risposta Cause: Casi NaturaleTecnologicoIPK di managers Strutture Organizzative Comunicazione Interna Comunicazione tra organizzazioni Blackout it. 01 111 Chernobyl 111 1 Linate 11 11 Katrina 0 1 11 Tsunami 0 1 11 Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEAs Research Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006

22. Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEAs Research InInInIn KP I1I1I1I1 KP I2I2I2I2 KP I3I3I3I3 KP Infrastructure Network Real Emergency Domain - - - I KP Agent Manager Agent 1 Agent 2 Agent 3 Agent n I : Information P : Preferences K : Knowledge Simulation Approach: Agent-Based Architecture Agents with different roles

23. Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006 Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEAs Research Incremental Simulation: Top-down design Incremental design experiment (2004) Top-down Specializations Environ. Activity Domain Org. Body IPK Decision-Making Acting

24. Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006 Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEAs Research Simulation: illustrative Working Test Case: Emergence Propagation Map Explosion in Chemical Factory Vulnerable Node

25. Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006 Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEAs Research Simple Simulation: PROPAGATION OF EMERGENCY WITHOUT INTERVENTION

26. Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006 Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEAs Research D1D2 …DN IB 1 IB 2 …IB N PB 1 PB 2 …PB N KB 1 KB 2 …KB N Domains of support (activity) Meta-Scenario : Tasks Actions IPK Bases Procedures Software : Computational Codes Software : Data Bases & Rule Bases Method Reasoning Models Information Preferences Knowledge … Simulator: IPK Bases for Organizational Decision Making

27. Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006 Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEAs Research Support for Emergency Management Possible main generic functions of an Intelligent Cognitive Advisor: Monitoring, Detection of Abnormalities/Erroneous States Diagnostics What-if evaluation Decision suggestions Expansion ability (new decision-support properties)

28. Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006 Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEAs Research Possible Full-Scale Simulator Architecture User-Tasks Manager (agent) Intell. Support & Cognitive Interfaces MIT Interface Simulation Agent A-Tool Spec. Agent Functions Base Core Scenario Simulator Function Factory Event Factory A-Tools Factory OLCL PL Configuration Agent F. Specializati on Agent E.Specialization Agent Interpretation -Tools Factory I-Tool Application Agent OL CLPL (TOGA based proposal) Functions activated in the Event-Action Scenario (EAS) A function & tool under development Tools used in an action in EAS Org. Layer OL Cog Layer CL Emot. Layer PL Org. Layer OL Cog Layer CL Emot. Layer PL I -tool : a tool for the interpretation of SYNTEXT simulation results.

29. Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006 Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEAs Research Conclusions Nowadays Socio-Cognitive Engineering is an emerging systemic response on the dramatically growing risk of negative consequences of Human Errors, it is inevitable tool of the XXI century. - Complexity of problems requires new 3 rd Generation Integration Approaches such as the TOGA multi-factor problem representation and parallel modeling, and Intelligent Decision Support Systems/(Intelligent Advisors Network) development. - Key problems are referred to the individual understanding and common transparency of decision-making processes for their intelligent human actors- contributors. - Socio-Cognitive Engineering requires new specialists on organizational, national and international levels.

30. Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006 Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEAs Research CONCLUSIONS The presented works have provided important modeling frameworks. The future short-term activity will be focused on: 1.Cognitive Modeling of Managerial Decision-Making under high-risk 2.Socio-technological Modeling of LCCIs collaboration 3.Development of the demo Simulation of high-risk management in human Organization The activity have been done in ENEA. It included several student theses of : 1.University La Sapienza : – Systems and Informatics Dep. – Sociology Dep. – Psychology Dep. – Faculty of Communication Sciences (Cognitive Ergonomics) 2. University of Rome Tor Vergata: - Faculty of Industrial Management

31. Some References Copyright High-Intelligence & Decision Research Group, CAMO, ENEA, http://erg4146.casaccia.enea.it Adam M. Gadomski, 23/06/2005http://erg4146.casaccia.enea.it 1.A.M. Gadomski. Information about System-Process-Goal Approach to diagnostics and supervisory of nuclear reactor system. Materials of 19th Informal Meeting on Reactor Noises, Rome, June 1986. 2.A.M. Gadomski. Application of System-Process-Goal Approach for description of TRIGA RC1 System. Proceedings of " 9th. European TRIGA Users Conference ", Oct., 1986, Roma. Printed by GA Technologies, TOC-19, USA. 1987, also the ENEA Report RT TIB/88/2, 1988. http://hid.casaccia.enea.it/TOto/pdf/(1)an%20application%20of%20spg%20approach%20to%20the%20triga%20rc1.pdf 2. A.M. Gadomski.TOGA: A methodological and Conceptual Pattern for modelling of Abstract Intelligent Agent. In Proc. of the First International Round-Table on Abstract Intelligent Agent,25-27 Jan 1993, The ENEA print (1994). 3. A..M.Gadomski. Patterns for Conceptualization of Knowledge on Technological Systems Organizations and Human (invited paper). 9th Polish-Italian-Finnish Conference on Systems Analysis and Decision Support in Economics and Technology, Radziejowice, Poland. 25-28 October 1993. 4. A.M. Gadomski, Meta-Knowledge Engineering & Management Server (since 1997), http://erg4146.casaccia.enea.it 5. A.M.Gadomski, S. Bologna, G.DiCostanzo, A.Perini, M. Schaerf. Towards Intelligent Decision Support Systems for Emergency Managers: The IDA Approach. International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management, IJRAM, 2001, Vol 2, No 3/4. 6.A.M. Gadomski, TOGA Systemic Approach to the Global Specification - EUREKA Sophocles Project Report, ENEA, 2002. http://hid.casaccia.enea.it/RepSoph-v10.pdf http://hid.casaccia.enea.it/RepSoph-v10.pdf 7.A.M. Gadomski, Modeling of Socio-Cognitive Vulnerability of Human Organizations: TOGA Meta-Theory Approach, Proc. of International Workshop on Complex Network and Infrastructure Protection, CNIP 2006, 28- 29 March 2006, Rome, Italy. For more references see: http://hid.casaccia.enea.it/gad/gad-pape.html http://hid.casaccia.enea.it/gad/gad-pape.html

32. Adam M. Gadomski, CAMO – ENEA – RC Casaccia – ed. C59 sala conferenze – 05 June 2006 Vulnerability of Human Organizations: ENEAs Research Thank you ! CRESCO SOC-COG New research CRESCO subproject (2006-2009): Modellistica delle Reti Complesse viste come Aggregati Socio-Tecnologici – Aspetto di loro Vulnerabilità Umana.