1. FOOD SECURITY Concepts, Basic Facts, and Measurement Issues June 26 to July 7, 2011 Dhaka, Bangladesh

2. Talukder 5e: Supporting Policies for FS with Monitoring, Forecasting and Early Warning R. K. Talukder NFPCSP, FAO/MoFDM Learning: Trainees will become familiar with the conceptual aspects of monitoring, forecasting and early warning; get acquainted with the tools and techniques of early warning exercises, and will be able to understand the integration mechanism of domestic early warning with global early warning systems relating to food production, supply and management.

3. Brief Contents  Concepts of monitoring, forecasting and early earning  Early warning system for food management  Factors affecting crop production and availability  Methods used to arrive at forecast of production and prices of food crops  Early warning system for natural disasters  Rapid intervention and emergency management  Review of early warning practices in Bangladesh  Integration of domestic early warning with global early warning system.

4. Concepts of Monitoring, Forecasting and Early Warning (1) Monitoring:  Monitoring refers to systematic collection and analysis of information during execution of a project or an activity.  It is based on targets and activities set during the planning phase of the project.  It helps to keep the work on track, and can let the management know if things are going wrong so that corrective measures can be taken.  Monitoring is performed for increasing efficiency and effectiveness of a project.

5. Concepts of Monitoring, Forecasting and Early Warning (2) Forecasting:  The term forecasting is generally used to indicate the qualitative and quantitative information on the future type and magnitude of an event (or a variable).  Forecasting is done with a stipulated lead time of occurrence of an event.  Forecasting differs from ‘prediction’ which generally refers to very specific events based on measurement, and implies a level of likelihood.

6. Concepts of Monitoring, Forecasting and Early Warning (3) Early Warning:  Early warning can be conceptualized as the provision of timely and effective information, through some identified institutions, that allows individuals exposed to hazards to take action to avoid or reduce risk and prepare for effective response.  Early warning systems can help reduce economic losses and mitigate the number of injuries or deaths from a disaster.  Monitoring and prediction can be a part of early warning process. If monitoring and prediction system is associated with communication system and response plans, it can constitute an early warning system.

7. Figure: Early warning system operational aspects Monitoring and Prediction Communicating Alerts Responding Early Warning System

8. Early Warning System for Food Management  Early warning system is an essential management tool for safeguarding and improving food security.  Its main objective is to give timely signals of impending food shortages or surpluses.  An effective early warning system provides sufficient lead time between prognosis and actual occurrence of food shortages or surpluses.  It also enables the government to plan import/export and maintain optimum stock and thereby minimize storage, transportation and handling costs.  An effective early warning system provides a precise degree of food security at lowest possible cost to the nation.

9. Factors affecting Crop Production and Availability  Weather including precipitation and temperature ;  Other natural factors such as Flood, Cyclone and Crop Diseases;  Status of Implementation of relevant Programmes.;  Price behaviour of basic food staff;  Quantities marketed - pace and pattern of arrivals;  Stocks held by government, traders and farmers;  Procurement, import and public distribution of food.

10. Methods used to arrive at Forecast of Crop Production  Monitoring crop conditions on the basis of agro-climatic data;  Crop development and conditions, area damaged and other factors related to crop production;  Making regular survey to assess area, yield and production of crop;  Estimating regression models describing the relationship between selected weather parameters and final yield.

11. Early Warning System for Natural Disasters (1) Storm Warning Centre, BMD:  Provides weather forecast on routine basis and issues warnings for severe weather phenomena such as storms, heavy rainfall, tropical cyclones and tornadoes;  Receives round the clock satellite imageries for timely use in operational meteorology;  Provides 1 monthly and 3 monthly weather forecasts to related stakeholders including the Ministry of Agriculture, Ministry of Food and Disaster Management, BARC, DAE and other related Departments.

12. Early Warning System for Natural Disasters (2) Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre, BWDB:  Provides daily monsoon bulletin and river situation report;  Provides river level forecasts for 24, 48 and 72 hours;  Prepares and disseminates flood and inundation status map up to Upazila levels;  Prepares and disseminates flood maps through GIS links and satellite imageries.

13. Early Warning System for Natural Disasters (3) Disaster Management Information Centre, DMB, MoFDM :  Ensures e[ffective dissemination of appropriate warnings about flood, cyclones and water surge through collaboration with BMD, BWDB, Radio, TV and administrative personnel;  Works as a facilitator for the preparation of local Disaster Management Action Plans at Union, Upazila and district levels;  Performs emergency information exchange and facilitates relief management through the Emergency Operation Centre.

14. Rapid Intervention and Emergency Management  The Emergency Operations Centre of the MoFDM gets activated with early information about occurrence of a disaster;  The emergency relief management system makes use of the services of the civil administration along with the services of the Armed Forces and NGOs in the rescue operations during and after disaster;  The Directorate of Relief and Rehabilitation, in association with other government and non-government agencies, operates relief activities during emergency situation;  The plan and practice of disaster management of the GOB involve preparedness, response, recovery and mitigation as the key strategies for building self-reliance of the communities in managing disasters.

15. Review of Early Warning System in Bangladesh (1) Earlier Initiatives:  A World Bank report in 1979 provided an outline of a proposed early warning system.  In 1982, a USAID mission commissioned a study for the development of an early warning crop forecasting model.  A mission from the FAO Food Security Assistance Unit visited Bangladesh in 1982 to review the country's food security programme.  On the basis of the recommendation of the mission, a project entitled "Development of Early Warning System in Bangladesh" was formulated in 1983.  The project was executed by the FAO from 1984 to 1988 with financial assistance from the government of Japan.

16. Review of Early Warning System in Bangladesh (2) The New Project: Early Warning and Food Information System (EWFIS):  In view of the vacuum situation prevailing in respect of early warning practices, a new project entitled "Strengthening Early Warning and Food Information System" was designed and undertaken by the government.  The project started functioning from April1998 and was completed in December 2002

17. Review of Early Warning System in Bangladesh (2) Works Accomplished under the EWFIS Project:  Production Trend Analysis  Price Analysis  Water Balance Index  Crop Yield-Weather Regression Analysis  Analysis on Nutritional Indicators  Preparation of Database for Early Warning Exercises  Training  Workshop and Seminar

18. Development of Integrated Early Warning System  The scheduled completion of the project led to setting up of an Early Warning Cell (EWC) in the FPMU/MoFDM.  This cell was entrusted with the technical jobs of performing analytical exercises on early warning and providing information and advice to the Early Warning Technical Committee (EWTC) chaired by the DG, FPMU.  The EWTC in turn would evaluate the information and provide policy advice to the Food Planning and Monitoring Committee (FPMC), the highest level interministerial body responsible for formulation of food policy in the country.

19. Integration of Domestic Early Warning with Global Early Warning System (1) Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS), FAO:  The principal mandate of GIEWS is to keep the world food supply /demand situation under continuous review, issue reports on the world food situation and provide early warning of impending food crises of individual countries.  The important GIEWS tool is called the WinDisp which is a map, image display and analysis software used for display and analysis of satellite images, maps and related databases, with an emphasis on early warning for food security for a country or a specific area.  The important publications of GIEWS are Crop Prospect and Food Situation (quarterly), Food Outlook (biannual) and Global Food Price Monitor (monthly), CFSAM Reports (occasional).

20. Integration of Domestic Early Warning with Global Early Warning System (2) Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET), USAID :  This network deals with food security monitoring, assessment. analysis and early warning. It monitors trends in staple food prices in countries vulnerable to food insecurity. The price monitoring information of key markets and commodities are made available through the Price Watch Annex.

21. Integration of Domestic Early Warning with Global Early Warning System (3) GIEWS Workstation Information Management System:  The GIEWS Workstation provides a decentralized, web-based, geo-referenced information management system that facilitates collection and sharing of standardized food security related information;  The Workstation includes software functions such as GIS mapping, tables and charts that enables users to perform cross-analysis of multidisciplinary data and determine the food security implications of economic, social and environmental factors;  All Workstations installed at key institutions in different countries form a Network across which information can be shared directly;  The FPMU/MoFDM is at an advanced stage of building a Workstation, to be integrated with the Global Workstation Network.