1. © Cengage Learning 2015 LIVING IN THE ENVIRONMENT, 18e G. TYLER MILLER SCOTT E. SPOOLMAN © Cengage Learning 2015 19 Climate Disruption

2. © Cengage Learning 2015 World’s largest island – 80% covered by glaciers 10% of the world’s fresh water Glacial melting and movement accelerating Effect on sea level if melting continues –1 meter rise by 2100 Core Case Study: Melting Ice in Greenland

3. © Cengage Learning 2015 Fig. 19-1, p. 506

4. © Cengage Learning 2015 Considerable scientific evidence indicates that the earth’s atmosphere is warming at a rapid rate that is likely to lead to significant climate disruption during this century 19-1 How Is the Earth’s Climate Changing?

5. © Cengage Learning 2015 Weather is short-term changes –Temperature, air pressure, precipitation, wind Climate is average conditions in a particular area over a long period of time –Temperature and precipitation –Fluctuations are normal Weather and Climate Are Not the Same

6. © Cengage Learning 2015 Over the past 3.5 billion years the climate has been altered by: –Volcanic emissions, changes in solar input, movement of the continents, meteor impacts, changing global air, and ocean circulation Over the past 900,000 years –Glacial and interglacial periods Climate Change is Not New But Has Accelerated

7. © Cengage Learning 2015 Over the past 10,000 years –Interglacial period Over the past 1,000 years –Temperature stable Since 1975 –Temperature changes –Accelerating Climate Change is Not New But Has Accelerated (cont’d.)

8. © Cengage Learning 2015 Fig. 19-2, p. 507 Average surface temperature (°C) Thousands of years ago AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (over past 900,000 years)

9. © Cengage Learning 2015 Fig. 19-3, p. 507 Average surface temperature (°C) Year AVERAGE TEMPERATURE (over past 130 years)

10. © Cengage Learning 2015 Fig. 19-4, p. 507

11. © Cengage Learning 2015 Scientific evidence strongly indicates that the earth’s atmosphere has been warming at a rapid rate since 1975 and that human activities, especially the burning of fossil fuels and deforestation, have played a major role in this warming 19-2 Why Is the Earth’s Climate Changing?

12. © Cengage Learning 2015 Greenhouse gases absorb heat radiated by the earth –The gases then emit infrared radiation that warms the atmosphere Without the natural greenhouse effect –We would have a cold, uninhabitable earth The Natural Greenhouse Effect Plays a Key Role in Climate

13. © Cengage Learning 2015 Fig. 19-6a, p. 510 Atmospheric lifetime Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) Methane (CH 4 ) 12 yrs 100 yrs (varies 50–200 yrs) 114 yrs

14. © Cengage Learning 2015 Fig. 19-6b, p. 510 Atmospheric Warming Potential (over 100 years, as multiples of CO2 warming potential) 300 Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) Methane (CH 4 ) Carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) 25 1

15. © Cengage Learning 2015 Since the Industrial Revolution –CO 2, CH 4, and N 2 O emissions have been higher –Main sources – agriculture, deforestation, and burning of fossil fuels There is a correlation of rising CO 2 and CH 4 with rising global temperatures Human Activities Play a Key Role in Atmospheric Warming

16. © Cengage Learning 2015 Fig. 19-7, p. 511

17. © Cengage Learning 2015 Fig. 19-8, p. 511

18. © Cengage Learning 2015 Average atmospheric concentration of CO 2 rose from 280 ppm to 400 ppm since the beginning of the Industrial Revolution 70% of CH 4 emissions over the last 275 years results from human activities 2010 – U.S. and China accounted for 41% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions Human factors can amplify or dampen changes Human Activities Play a Key Role in Atmospheric Warming (cont’d.)

19. © Cengage Learning 2015 The sun plays a key role in the earth’s temperature Researchers think that atmospheric warming is not due to an increase in energy output from the sun –Since 1975 Troposphere has warmed Stratosphere has cooled –Hotter sun would warm stratosphere What Role Does the Sun Play?

20. © Cengage Learning 2015 CO 2 is soluble in ocean water Warmer oceans –Last century – 0.32-0.67C° increase –Absorb less CO 2 and hasten atmospheric warming –CO 2 levels increase acidity –Affect marine ecosystems What Role Do the Oceans Play in Projected Climate Disruption?

21. © Cengage Learning 2015 Warmer temperatures create more clouds –Thick, low altitude cumulus clouds – decrease surface temperature –Thin, cirrus clouds at high altitudes – increase surface temperature There Is Uncertainty about the Effects of Cloud Cover on Atmospheric Warming

22. © Cengage Learning 2015 Fig. 19-10, p. 513

23. © Cengage Learning 2015 Aerosol and soot pollutants –Can enhance or counteract projected global warming –Sulfate particles reflect sunlight –Soot particles absorb sunlight Outdoor Air Pollution Can Temporarily Slow Atmospheric Warming

24. © Cengage Learning 2015 The projected rapid change in the atmosphere’s temperature could have severe and long-lasting consequences, including increased drought and flooding, rising sea levels, and shifts in the locations of croplands and wildlife habitats 19-3 What Are the Possible Effects of a Warmer Atmosphere?

25. © Cengage Learning 2015 Temperatures rising rapidly Harmful effects will be unevenly distributed Climate change tipping points –Thresholds beyond which natural systems will not recover CO 2 concentration above 450ppm Global average atmospheric temperature Rapid Atmospheric Warming Could Have Serious Consequences

26. Fig. 19-11a, p. 517 Average minimum ice cover, 1979–2010 Minimum ice cover, September 16, 2012

27. Fig. 19-11b, p. 517

28. © Cengage Learning 2015 Ice melting due to: –Warmer air above and warmer water below Positive feedback loop –Accelerated melting of polar ice Climate tipping point –Melting of summer arctic sea ice –Changes in arctic seawater temperatures can influence the jet stream More Ice and Snow Are Likely to Melt

29. © Cengage Learning 2015 Mountain glaciers –Are shrinking –Play a vital role in the water cycle More Ice and Snow Are Likely to Melt (cont’d.)

30. © Cengage Learning 2015 If permafrost in Arctic region melts: –Methane, a greenhouse gas, will be released into the atmosphere –Accelerate projected warming Methane in permafrost on Arctic Sea floor Tropical wetlands Permafrost Is Likely to Melt: Another Dangerous Scenario

31. © Cengage Learning 2015 Current Boreal Forest RUSSIA ARCTIC TUNDRA Stepped Art 2090–2100 Boreal Forest RUSSIA Fig. 19-13, p. 620

32. © Cengage Learning 2015 Projected sea level rise –0.5 to 1.5 meters by 2100 Projected irreversible effect –Degradation and loss of 1/3 of coastal estuaries, wetlands, and coral reefs –Disruption of coastal fisheries –Flooding of: Low-lying barrier islands and coastal areas Agricultural lowlands and deltas Sea Levels Are Rising

33. © Cengage Learning 2015 Projected irreversible effect (cont’d.) –Contamination of freshwater aquifers –Submergence of low-lying islands in the Pacific and Indian Oceans and the Caribbean –Flooding of coastal cities Sea Levels Are Rising (cont’d.)

34. © Cengage Learning 2015 Fig. 19-14, p. 520

35. © Cengage Learning 2015 Increased acidity of surface waters by 30% –CO 2 combines with water to become carbonic acid (H 2 CO 3 ) Threatens corals, snails, organisms with shells Threatens phytoplankton The Oceans Are Becoming More Acidic

36. © Cengage Learning 2015 Positive feedback loop –Water vapor warms the atmosphere, creating more evaporation Increased wildfires Declining surface water, lower water tables Dry climate ecosystems will increase Severe Drought Is Likely to Become More Common

37. © Cengage Learning 2015 Heat waves and droughts in some areas –Could kill large numbers of people Prolonged rains and flooding in other areas Will storms get worse? Other Forms of Extreme Weather Will Be More Likely

38. © Cengage Learning 2015 Amazon rainforest –Up to 85% could be lost due to warming –Extinctions due to loss of habitat Southern Ocean –Phytoplankton declined up to 90% –Shrinkage of sea ice Increase damaging insects –Mountain pine beetle, etc. Climate Disruption Is a Threat to Biodiversity

39. © Cengage Learning 2015 Regions of farming may shift –Decrease in tropical and subtropical areas –Increase in northern latitudes Less productivity – soil not as fertile Hundreds of millions of people could face starvation and malnutrition Food Production Could Face an Overall Decline

40. © Cengage Learning 2015 Warmer world would likely favor things that make us sick Increase in pollution Projected disruption will likely force many to move in search of better conditions Climate Disruption Threatens Human Health and Economies

41. © Cengage Learning 2015 Fig. 19-20, p. 525

42. © Cengage Learning 2015 We can reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the threat of climate disruption while saving money and improving human health if we cut energy waste and rely more on cleaner renewable energy resources 19-4 What Can We Do to Slow Projected Climate Disruption?

43. © Cengage Learning 2015 Global problem –Requires unprecedented and prolonged international cooperation Long-lasting political issue –People respond better to short-term problems Projected harmful and beneficial impacts of climate change are not spread evenly Dealing with Climate Disruption Is Difficult

44. © Cengage Learning 2015 Proposed solutions are controversial –Economic disruption Humans are not “hard-wired” to respond to long-term threats Dealing with Climate Disruption Is Difficult (cont’d.)

45. © Cengage Learning 2015 Fig. 19-21, p. 525

46. © Cengage Learning 2015 Mitigation –Slow disruption to avoid tipping points Adaptation –Recognize climate change is inevitable –Try to reduce harmful effects What Are Our Options?

47. © Cengage Learning 2015 Solutions: –Improve energy efficiency to reduce fossil fuel use –Increased use of low-carbon renewable energy resources –Stop cutting down tropical forests –Shift to more sustainable and climate-friendly agriculture Also reduce other greenhouse gases We Could Control and Prevent Greenhouse Gas Emissions

48. Fig. 19-22, p. 528 Solutions Cut fossil fuel use (especially coal) Sequester CO 2 by planting trees and preserving forests and wetlands Shift from coal to natural gas Sequester carbon in soil using biochar PreventionCleanup Slowing Climate Disruption Improve energy efficiency Sequester CO 2 deep underground (with no leaks allowed) Reduce deforestation Remove CO 2 from smokestack and vehicle emissions Sequester CO 2 in the deep ocean (with no leaks allowed) Shift to renewable energy resources Use more sustainable agriculture and forestry Put a price on greenhouse gas emissions Repair leaky natural gas pipelines and facilities

49. © Cengage Learning 2015 Solutions –Massive global tree planting –Restore wetlands that have been drained for farming –Plant fast-growing perennials on degraded land –Promote biochar –Preserve and restore natural forests –Capture/store carbon from coal-burning plants We Could Try to Clean Up Greenhouse Gas Emissions

50. © Cengage Learning 2015 Geoengineering as last resort, if other methods and policies fail –Injection of sulfate particles into the stratosphere –Seed oceans with iron Problems: –Political and ethical Some Promote Geoengineering Schemes to Ward Off Climate Change

51. Fig. 19-23, p. 529 Iron Fertilization Promotes Carbon- Absorbing Marine Organisms Cloud Brightening with Seawater Genetically Modified Trees Absorb More Carbon Stratospheric Reflective Aerosol Dispersal Using Jet Aircraft Stratospheric Reflective Aerosol Dispersal Using High- altitude Balloons Orbiting Satellite Space Shield

52. © Cengage Learning 2015 CO 2 is classified as a pollutant –Concentration in the atmosphere 2009 – the EPA classified several greenhouse gases as a danger to public health –Fossil fuel companies are against Greenhouse Gases Can Be Regulated as Pollutants

53. © Cengage Learning 2015 Carbon or energy taxes Cap on total human-generated CO 2 and CH 4 –Cap-and-trade Difficult to manage We Can Put a Price on Carbon Emissions

54. © Cengage Learning 2015 Fig. 19-24, p. 532 Trade-Offs Carbon and Energy Taxes Advantages Disadvantages Simple to administer Tax laws can get complex Clear price on carbon Vulnerable to loopholes Doesn’t guarantee lower emissions Covers all emitters Predictable revenues Politically unpopular

55. © Cengage Learning 2015 Fig. 19-25, p. 533 Cap and Trade Policies AdvantagesDisadvantages Clear legal limit on emissions Revenues not predictable Rewards cuts in emissions Record of success Rich polluters can keep polluting Vulnerable to cheating Low expense for consumers Puts variable price on carbon Trade-Offs

56. © Cengage Learning 2015 Subsidies –To encourage energy-efficient technologies, etc. –Phase out subsidies on fossil fuels Government funding of research and development –Switch to clean industries Government Subsidies Can Be Used to Address Climate Disruption

57. © Cengage Learning 2015 The Kyoto Protocol –1997 – treaty to slow climate change –Not signed by the U.S. Technology transfer –Helping poor countries Protection of large forests Governments Can Cooperate Internationally

58. © Cengage Learning 2015 Costa Rica – goal to be carbon neutral by 2030 China and India must change energy habits U.S. cities and states taking initiatives to reduce carbon emissions –California –Portland Some Countries, States, and Localities Are Leading the Way

59. © Cengage Learning 2015 Major global companies are reducing greenhouse gas emissions –Alcoa, DuPont, IBM, Toyota, GE, Wal-Mart –Profit opportunity Some Companies Are Reducing Their Carbon Footprints

60. © Cengage Learning 2015 Reducing greenhouse gas emissions –Arizona State University Solar panels –College of the Atlantic Carbon neutral since 2007 –EARTH University, Costa Rica Promotes sustainable development in tropical countries Colleges and Universities Are Going Green

61. © Cengage Learning 2015 Carbon footprint –Carbon generated directly or indirectly by a person or group –Diet –Nonfood purchases Every Individual Choice Makes a Difference

62. © Cengage Learning 2015 Fig. 19-28, p. 536

63. © Cengage Learning 2015 Realize important economic, ecological, and health benefits by drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions –With the goal of slowing projected climate disruption 19-5 How Can We Adapt to Climate Change?

64. © Cengage Learning 2015 Reduce greenhouse gas emissions as much as possible Move people from low-lying coastal areas Take measures against storm surges at coast Prepare for more intense wildfires Conserve water We Can Prepare for Climate Disruption

65. © Cengage Learning 2015 Fig. 19-29, p. 537 Develop crops that need less water Waste less water Connect wildlife reserves with corridors Move people away from low-lying coastal areas Move hazardous material storage tanks away from coast Stockpile 1- to 5-year supply of key foods Prohibit new construction on low-lying coastal areas or build houses on stilts Expand existing wildlife reserves toward poles

66. © Cengage Learning 2015 What if climate models are wrong and there is no serious threat of climate disruption? No-regrets strategy –Any actions against climate disruption will lead to important benefits A No-Regrets Strategy

67. © Cengage Learning 2015 Considerable scientific evidence indicates that the earth’s atmosphere is warming, mostly because of human activities, and that this is likely to lead to significant climate disruption during this century that could have severe and long-lasting harmful consequences Three Big Ideas

68. © Cengage Learning 2015 Reducing the projected harmful effects of rapid climate disruption during this century requires emergency action to: –Increase energy efficiency –Sharply reduce greenhouse gas emissions –Rely more on renewable energy resources Three Big Ideas (cont’d.)

69. © Cengage Learning 2015 While we can prepare for some climate change that is now inevitable, we could realize important economic, ecological, and health benefits by drastically reducing greenhouse gas emissions with the goal of slowing climate change Three Big Ideas (cont’d.)

70. © Cengage Learning 2015 Climate disruption in this century –Many effects could increase climate disruption through positive feedback We can help: –Reduce pollutants –Recycle and reuse –Mimic biodiversity Tying It All Together: Melting Ice in Greenland and Sustainability