1. Oil Spill-Related Activities at the National Academy of Sciences Deborah Glickson UNH Oil Spill Forum October 29, 2014

2. 2 Who is the NAS? Non-governmental, non-profit organization Chartered by Congress under the Lincoln Administration (1863) to provide independent advice to the Nation on science, engineering, and medicine Intellectual leadership comes from volunteer experts, chosen for expertise, balance, and objectivity. Committee reports are most well known (200+ reports each year) but also research grants, fellowships, workshops, & other uses of independent experts.

3. 3 Boards and Activities Transportation Research Board Division of Earth and Life Studies Gulf Program

4. 4 4 Diluted Bitumen – Transport, Fate, Effect First NAS Study (PHMSA) Analyze whether transportation of diluted bitumen by transmission pipeline has an increased likelihood of release compared to other commonly transported crude oils. Key Finding: The committee did not find any causes of pipeline failure unique to the transportation of diluted bitumen. Second NAS Study (DOT) What are the consequences should a release happen? Do property differences between dilbit and other crudes warrant modifications to regulations governing spill response plans, spill preparedness, or clean up? Study underway, expected to be complete Dec 2015

5. Arctic Context Rapid climate change Increasing marine access Oil and gas Shipping Fishing Tourism? Image sources: NOAA, BOEM After DWH, traction for an NAS study on oil spill response in the U.S. Arctic 5

6. Responding to Marine Oil Spills in U.S. Arctic Evaluate the current state of science and engineering regarding oil spill response and environmental assessment in Arctic waters Scenarios Preparedness Response and Clean Up Environmental Baselines 6

7. Factors Affecting Scenarios Probability Type and condition of a vessel, pipeline, rig, or storage facility Accuracy and availability of maps and charts Season, weather conditions, and presence or absence of ice Behaviors, decisions, and experience level of key personnel Impacts Amount and type of oil released Met, ocean, ice, and geologic conditions Degree of interaction between oil and ecosystem Availability of response infrastructure and trained personnel Domestic vs. international 7

8. Scenarios & Risk Matrix Shipping 1 - Passenger vessel 2 - Oil tanker 3 - Bulk carrier 4 – Tug/barge 5 – Pipeline break 6 – Wellhead blowout 7 - Land-based oil tank Image sources: NOAA, BOEM 8

9. Benchmark Data Few reliable baselines or benchmarks – Distribution and abundance: fish, birds, marine mammals – Rates of change for key species – Sensitivity of key Arctic species to hydrocarbons What’s needed? A system that integrates Arctic data in support of oil spill preparedness, response, and restoration and rehabilitation Long-term, community-based, multiuse Arctic observing system Real-time ocean-ice-meteorological forecasting system Continued nautical charting and shoreline mapping Image source: NOAA 9

10. Oil Spill Response Research Comprehensive, collaborative, long-term Arctic oil spill research and development program that integrates – Oil behavior – Oil spill response and countermeasures – Improved data & forecasting models A systematic program of carefully planned and controlled field experiments that release oil in the U.S. Arctic is needed to advance understanding of oil behavior and response options. 10

11. Coast Guard Needs Enhanced Arctic presence – Area-specific training, – icebreaking capability, – improved vessel availability, and – aircraft and helicopter support facilities Longer Arctic assignments for trained and experienced personnel and tribal liaisons Sustained funding needed to increase presence and to strengthen ongoing Arctic oil spill research programs Expedite evaluation of Bering Strait traffic – is VTS warranted? Image source: USCG 11

12. Arctic Infrastructure Lack of infrastructure is a significant liability Effective oil spill response requires improved: – Communications, transportation, traffic monitoring systems – Stronger supply chains, pre-deployed response equipment – Improved port and air access – Personnel, berthing, housing, waste & medical facilities – Community infrastructure—tribal liaisons, training – Integrated scientific and traditional knowledge Image source: NOAA

13. The Oil Spill Toolbox No single technique will apply in all situations. Effective oil spill response requires flexibility to evaluate and apply multiple response options NEBA can identify response options with least adverse environmental impacts and greatest net benefit Image source: USCG 13

14. Oil Spill Countermeasures Specific R&D needs: – Improved ignition methods for in situ burning, herders – Dispersant effectiveness at low temperatures – Understanding limits of mechanical recovery – Improved under-ice detection and response – Integrating remote sensing and observational techniques for detection and tracking – Determining/verifying hydrocarbon biodegradation rates following dispersant application – Evaluating the toxicity of dispersants and chemically dispersed oil on key Arctic marine species 14